KDLH [280426]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 280426
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1026 PM CST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM SNOW MEADOWLANDS 47.07N 92.73W
11/27/2008 M1.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

DAILY TOTAL.

&&

$$

BETTWY

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KABQ [280304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 280304
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
804 PM MST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM SNOW ROWE 35.49N 105.68W
11/27/2008 E1.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM OTHER FEDERAL

0351 PM SNOW LAS VEGAS 35.60N 105.22W
11/27/2008 E1.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

0400 PM SNOW 8 SW ROCIADA 35.76N 105.53W
11/27/2008 E6.4 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM OTHER FEDERAL

WESNER SPRINGS SNOTEL.

0400 PM SNOW 2 N CHAMA 36.92N 106.58W
11/27/2008 M2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

1.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES SINCE LAST REPORT

0400 PM SNOW 6 WNW TERERRO 35.76N 105.78W
11/27/2008 E5.5 INCH SANTA FE NM OTHER FEDERAL

SANTA FE SNOTEL.

0400 PM SNOW 5 WNW LOS ALAMOS 35.91N 106.38W
11/27/2008 E2.1 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

QUEMAZON SNOTEL.

0400 PM SNOW 9 E CUBA 36.02N 106.80W
11/27/2008 E2.7 INCH SANDOVAL NM OTHER FEDERAL

VACAS LOCAS SNOTEL.

0505 PM SNOW BUENA VISTA 35.91N 105.25W
11/27/2008 M5.0 INCH MORA NM BROADCAST MEDIA

0752 PM SNOW 5 ESE SANDIA PARK 35.14N 106.28W
11/27/2008 M1.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM PUBLIC

&&

$$

44

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KABQ [280303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 280303
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
803 PM MST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0752 PM SNOW 5 ESE SANDIA PARK 35.14N 106.28W
11/27/2008 M1.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM PUBLIC

&&

$$

44

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KDLH [280256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 280256
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
856 PM CST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
11/27/2008 M4.0 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

DAILY TOTAL.

&&

$$

BETTWY

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KDLH [280228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 280228
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
828 PM CST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM SNOW RED CLIFF 46.86N 90.79W
11/27/2008 M2.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BETTWY

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KDLH [280134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 280134
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
733 PM CST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM SNOW KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
11/27/2008 M3.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BETTWY

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KABQ [280051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 280051
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM SNOW 5 WNW LOS ALAMOS 35.91N 106.38W
11/27/2008 E2.1 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

QUEMAZON SNOTEL.

0400 PM SNOW 6 WNW TERERRO 35.76N 105.78W
11/27/2008 E5.5 INCH SANTA FE NM OTHER FEDERAL

SANTA FE SNOTEL.

&&

$$

44

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KABQ [280045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 280045
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
544 PM MST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM SNOW 2 N CHAMA 36.92N 106.58W
11/27/2008 M2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

1.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES SINCE LAST REPORT

0400 PM SNOW 8 SW ROCIADA 35.76N 105.53W
11/27/2008 E6.4 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM OTHER FEDERAL

WESNER SPRINGS SNOTEL.

0400 PM SNOW 9 E CUBA 36.02N 106.80W
11/27/2008 E2.7 INCH SANDOVAL NM OTHER FEDERAL

VACAS LOCAS SNOTEL.

0505 PM SNOW BUENA VISTA 35.91N 105.25W
11/27/2008 M5.0 INCH MORA NM BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

CJONES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280025
SWODY1
SPC AC 280023

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CST THU NOV 27 2008

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA...NEAR THE -20C 500 MB COLD CORE OF THE
CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR
WESTERLIES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH 02-03Z...BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND UPPER SYSTEM GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER IMPULSE PROGRESSING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH INTO A CONFLUENT REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MAY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUPPRESS MID/UPPER RIDGING AS FAR
SOUTH AS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 28/06Z.
COUPLED WITH STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE A STRENGTHENING
COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE REGION AND RED RIVER
VALLEY...DESTABILIZATION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

WITHIN BROADER SCALE RIDGING...ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IS ALREADY
SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION. AND...WEAK LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC COOLING ABOVE A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
...PROBABILITIES STILL SEEM LOW DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF CAPPING LAYERS ASSOCIATED WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGING.

..KERR.. 11/28/2008

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KABQ [272254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 272254
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
354 PM MST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0351 PM SNOW LAS VEGAS 35.60N 105.22W
11/27/2008 E1.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

50

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KVEF [272251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 272251
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
251 PM PST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0146 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 WNW CALIFORNIA WASH ( 36.49N 114.77W
11/27/2008 CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD JUST SOUTHEAST
OF MILE MARKER 74 ALONG INTERSTATE 15 WHICH IS BETWEEN
MOAPA AND LAS VEGAS. SEVERAL PICTURES WERE SENT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAS VEGAS CONFIRMING THIS
FUNNEL CLOUD.

&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KREV [272211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KREV 272211
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
210 PM PST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0834 AM SNOW BODIE 38.21N 119.01W
11/27/2008 M4.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED THIS MORNING AT BODIE STATE
PARK ELEVATION 8300 FT

0839 AM SNOW BRIDGEPORT 38.26N 119.22W
11/27/2008 M2.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

2 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED THIS MORNING AT BRIDGEPORT
ELEVATION 6470 FT.

0930 AM SNOW SQUAW VALLEY 39.20N 120.22W
11/27/2008 M5.0 INCH PLACER CA PUBLIC

SQUAW VALLEY SKI RESORT REPORTED 4 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT AT AN ELEVATION OF 8200 FEET.

&&

$$

O'HARA

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KABQ [272158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 272158
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 PM MST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM SNOW ROWE 35.49N 105.68W
11/27/2008 E1.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM OTHER FEDERAL

&&

$$

50

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KDLH [272136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 272136
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
336 PM CST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM SNOW KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
11/27/2008 M2.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOWFALL TOTAL SINCE 0600

0300 PM SNOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
11/27/2008 M3.5 INCH KOOCHICHING MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SNOWFALL TOTAL SINCE 0600 AM

0310 PM SNOW LITTLEFORK 48.40N 93.56W
11/27/2008 M2.6 INCH KOOCHICHING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOWFALL TOTAL SINCE 0600 AM

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KVEF [272131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 272131
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
131 PM PST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 SW LONE PINE 36.48N 118.18W
11/26/2008 E8.2 INCH INYO CA MESONET

AN ESTIMATED 8.2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT THE COTTONWOOD
SNOTEL AT AN ELEVATION OF 10150 FEET BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
NOON PST ON NOVEMBER 26TH.

0100 PM SNOW 4 NNW MT. CHARLESTON 36.34N 115.65W
11/26/2008 E4.0 INCH CLARK NV MESONET

AN ESTIMATED 4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT THE LEE CANYON
SNOTEL AT AN ELEVATION OF 8626 FEET BETWEEN 0700 PST AND
1300 PST ON NOVEMBER 26TH.

0200 PM SNOW 6 WNW KYLE CANYON RAWS 36.31N 115.69W
11/26/2008 E6.0 INCH CLARK NV MESONET

THE BRISTLECONE PINE TRAIL SNOTEL ON MOUNT CHARLESTON HAD
AN ESTIMATED 6 INCHES OF SNOW FALL AT AN ELEVATION OF

8979 FEET BETWEEN 0500 PST AND 1400 PST ON NOVEMBER 26TH.

0200 PM SNOW 5 WNW KYLE CANYON RAWS 36.30N 115.68W
11/26/2008 M6.0 INCH CLARK NV PUBLIC

THE LAS VEGAS SKI AND SNOWBOARD RESORT ON MOUNT
CHARLESTON REPORTED THAT 6 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT AN
ELEVATION OF 9300 FEET ENDING AT 1400 PST.

0345 PM SNOW 1 WNW ASPENDELL 37.24N 118.60W
11/26/2008 M4.0 INCH INYO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER MEASURED 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN ASPENDELL AT ABOUT
8500 FEET IN ELEVATION.

0500 PM SNOW 5 SSE ASPENDELL 37.16N 118.56W
11/26/2008 E6.6 INCH INYO CA MESONET

THE SAWMILL SNOTEL SITE HAD AN ESTIMATED 6.6 INCHES OF
SNOW AT AN ELEVATION OF 10200 FEET BETWEEN 100 PST AND
1700 PST ON NOVEMBER 26TH.

0700 PM HEAVY SNOW 6 SE SOUTH LAKE 37.13N 118.47W
11/26/2008 E8.8 INCH INYO CA MESONET

AN ESTIMATED 8.8 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT THE BIG PINE
CREEK SNOTEL AT AN ELEVATION OF 9800 FEET BETWEEN 200 PST
AND 1900 PST ON NOVEMBER 26TH. 8.1 INCHES FELL BETWEEN
200 PST AND 1400 PST ON NOVEMBER 26TH.

&&
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL LOW BROUGHT SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TO MOUNT CHARLESTON MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON NOVEMBER 26TH. SNOW LEVELS ON MOUNT
CHARLESTON WERE AS LOW AS ABOUT 7500 FEET. SNOTEL ESTIMATES ARE ALL
BASED ON A 10 TO 1 RATIO.
$$

STACHELSKI

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KDLH [272002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 272002
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
202 PM CST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM SNOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
11/27/2008 M2.5 INCH KOOCHICHING MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SINCE 0600 AM

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271937
SWODY1
SPC AC 271934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST THU NOV 27 2008

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHWEST DESERTS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW...A DRY SLOT IS
LOCATED FROM THE NRN SECTION OF BAJA CA ENEWD ACROSS NW MEXICO INTO
SE AZ. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ANALYZED WELL BY THE MODELS...EXISTS
NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY
ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER SRN AZ WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTHWEST CLOSE TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER AND EAST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WHERE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE PLENTIFUL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHERE
500 MB TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM -18C TO -22C. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD
EXIST OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL AZ...THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL WOULD APPEAR TO BE SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WHERE
THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
MAXIMIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 11/27/2008

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KSGX [271924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 271924
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1123 AM PST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1106 AM FUNNEL CLOUD SAN DIEGO 32.72N 117.16W
11/27/2008 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

JIM RINNEY REPORTS A POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD NNW OF MT
SOLEDAD DISTANCE UNKNOWN. HE SAID THE FUNNEL CLOUD
OCCURRED AROUND 836AM.

&&

$$

WASOWSKI

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KSGX [271914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 271914
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1114 AM PST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1106 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 W CORONA 33.87N 117.60W
11/27/2008 RIVERSIDE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTED WHILE TRAVELING EASTBOUND ON SR91
BETWEEN GREEN RIVER DR. AND SERFAS CLUB DR. DISTANCE FROM
SPOTTER WAS ESTIMATED AT 5 MILES OR CLOSER.

&&

$$

WASOWSKI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2396

ACUS11 KWNS 271853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271852
AZZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271852Z - 272045Z

SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN AZ WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.

A VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS EJECTING ENEWD THROUGH SERN AZ WITH AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE OVER SE CA. DRY SLOT AND PARTIAL CLEARING IN WAKE
OF LEAD IMPULSE HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF SRN AZ. THERMAL TROUGH AND
STEEPER 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ATTENDING THE UPPER LOW WERE
ADVECTING EAST THROUGH SRN AZ ABOVE A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 60S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 50S. THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS HAS RESULTED IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY OVER S CNTRL AZ. BULK
SHEAR OVER SE AZ IS SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. STRONGEST
STORM WHICH IS LOCATED SW OF KEARNY CONTINUES TO SHOW ROTATION ALONG
WITH LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND RECENT MESH
VALUES. SHEAR WEAKENS WITH WWD EXTENT CLOSER TO UPPER LOW
CENTER...BUT LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO COOL.

..DIAL.. 11/27/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 34141167 33621053 32701049 31831149 31861246 32371261
33021223 33711219 34141167

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KVEF [271802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 271802
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1002 AM PST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 S BULLHEAD CITY 35.11N 114.56W
11/27/2008 MOHAVE AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 95 HAD AN ESTIMATED 7 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER ON IT
WITH MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWING ACROSS THE ROADWAY RESULTING
IN A LANE CLOSURE. SOME RESIDENTIAL SIDE STREETS WERE
ALSO CLOSED DUE TO WATER ON THEM.

&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KDLH [271746]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDLH 271746
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
11/27/2008 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0945 AM SNOW 6 NNW WENTWORTH 46.68N 91.88W
11/27/2008 M0.7 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

ON THE AMNICON RIVER

0945 AM SNOW LITTLE MARAIS 47.41N 91.11W
11/27/2008 M1.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1030 AM SNOW BEAVER BAY 47.26N 91.30W
11/27/2008 M1.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 AM SNOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
11/27/2008 M1.0 INCH KOOCHICHING MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1045 AM SNOW WRENSHALL 46.62N 92.38W
11/27/2008 M0.6 INCH CARLTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 AM SNOW HERBSTER 46.83N 91.26W
11/27/2008 M0.5 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 AM SNOW LUTSEN 47.64N 90.71W
11/27/2008 M0.5 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 AM SNOW KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
11/27/2008 M1.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

1100 AM SNOW HOYT LAKES 47.51N 92.15W
11/27/2008 M0.8 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KDLH [271746]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 271746
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 AM SNOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
11/27/2008 M1.0 INCH KOOCHICHING MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KDLH [271737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 271737
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1136 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM SNOW BEAVER BAY 47.26N 91.30W
11/27/2008 M1.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 AM SNOW WRENSHALL 46.62N 92.38W
11/27/2008 M0.6 INCH CARLTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 AM SNOW HERBSTER 46.83N 91.26W
11/27/2008 M0.5 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 AM SNOW LUTSEN 47.64N 90.71W
11/27/2008 M0.5 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 AM SNOW KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
11/27/2008 M1.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

1100 AM SNOW HOYT LAKES 47.51N 92.15W
11/27/2008 M0.8 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 271730
SWODY2
SPC AC 271728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COAST STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT IS FORECAST
TO OPEN AND MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND SRN TN
VALLEYS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING 60+ F SFC DEWPOINTS FROM SRN
LA EWD ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL INTO SRN GA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. MODEL
FORECASTS MAINTAIN A 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT
IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
40 TO 55 KT RANGE MOSTLY DUE TO THE WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SHEAR SHOULD
BE MAINTAINED AND MAY INCREASE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A 65 TO
75 KT MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN AREAS WHERE
INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS IN LAPSE RATES. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 18 TO 21Z ALSO SHOW VEERED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
WITH UNDIRECTIONAL WINDS ABOVE ABOUT 900 MB. THIS MAY SUPPORT A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. IN ADDITION...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
MAY EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ESPECIALLY SRN LA...WHERE THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH ABOUT 850
MB. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE
THREAT SHOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 11/27/2008

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KPSR [271723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 271723
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1022 AM MST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 E YUMA 32.68N 114.60W
11/26/2008 M2.22 INCH YUMA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN RESULTED IN FLOODED LOW SPOTS AND
STREETS. HOMES FLOODED IN THE YUMA FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH
YUMA. ONE SOCCER FIELD HAD 2 FEET OF STANDING WATER.

&&

$$

SSIPPLE

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KVEF [271700]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 271700
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
900 AM PST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 SW LONE PINE 36.48N 118.18W
11/26/2008 E8.2 INCH INYO CA MESONET

AN ESTIMATED 8.2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT THE COTTONWOOD
SNOTEL AT AN ELEVATION OF 10150 FEET BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
NOON PST ON NOVEMBER 26TH.

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW 6 SE SOUTH LAKE 37.13N 118.47W
11/26/2008 E8.8 INCH INYO CA MESONET

AN ESTIMATED 8.8 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT THE BIG PINE
CREEK SNOTEL AT AN ELEVATION OF 9800 FEET BETWEEN 200 PST
AND 1900 PST ON NOVEMBER 26TH. 8.1 INCHES FELL BETWEEN
200 PST AND 1400 PST ON NOVEMBER 26TH.

0100 PM SNOW 4 NNW MT. CHARLESTON 36.34N 115.65W
11/26/2008 E4.0 INCH CLARK NV MESONET

AN ESTIMATED 4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT THE LEE CANYON
SNOTEL AT AN ELEVATION OF 8626 FEET BETWEEN 0700 PST AND
1300 PST ON NOVEMBER 26TH.

0200 PM SNOW 5 WNW KYLE CANYON RAWS 36.30N 115.68W
11/26/2008 M6.0 INCH CLARK NV PUBLIC

THE LAS VEGAS SKI AND SNOWBOARD RESORT ON MOUNT
CHARLESTON REPORTED THAT 6 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT AN
ELEVATION OF 9300 FEET ENDING AT 1400 PST.

0200 PM SNOW 6 WNW KYLE CANYON RAWS 36.31N 115.69W
11/26/2008 E6.0 INCH CLARK NV MESONET

THE BRISTLECONE PINE TRAIL SNOTEL ON MOUNT CHARLESTON HAD
AN ESTIMATED 6 INCHES OF SNOW FALL AT AN ELEVATION OF

8979 FEET BETWEEN 0500 PST AND 1400 PST ON NOVEMBER 26TH.

0345 PM SNOW 1 WNW ASPENDELL 37.24N 118.60W
11/26/2008 M4.0 INCH INYO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER MEASURED 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN ASPENDELL AT ABOUT
8500 FEET IN ELEVATION.

0500 PM SNOW 5 SSE ASPENDELL 37.16N 118.56W
11/26/2008 E6.6 INCH INYO CA MESONET

THE SAWMILL SNOTEL SITE HAD AN ESTIMATED 6.6 INCHES OF
SNOW AT AN ELEVATION OF 10200 FEET BETWEEN 100 PST AND
1700 PST ON NOVEMBER 26TH.

&&
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL LOW BROUGHT SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TO MOUNT CHARLESTON MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON NOVEMBER 26TH. SNOW LEVELS ON MOUNT
CHARLESTON WERE AS LOW AS ABOUT 7500 FEET. SNOTEL ESTIMATES ARE ALL
BASED ON A 10 TO 1 RATIO.
$$

STACHELSKI

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KREV [271640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 271640
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
840 AM PST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0839 AM SNOW BRIDGEPORT 38.26N 119.22W
11/27/2008 M2.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

2 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED THIS MORNING AT BRIDGEPORT
ELEVATION 6470 FT.

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KREV [271637]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 271637
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
836 AM PST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0834 AM SNOW BODIE 38.21N 119.01W
11/27/2008 M4.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED THIS MORNING AT BODIE STATE
PARK ELEVATION 8300 FT

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271612
SWODY1
SPC AC 271609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET NOW SHIFTING EWD ACROSS SRN
CA. MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY
ROTATING AROUND MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER...EACH OF WHICH IS
SUPPORTING MOIST CONVECTION EARLY TODAY. WITH LARGE AREA OF ASCENT
AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS EWD ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES. AS POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OVER
THE SWRN STATES TONIGHT...DEEP ASCENT ENHANCED BY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

MOST LIKELY AREA OF STRONGER STORMS...AND PERHAPS SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN MORE INTENSE CORES...IS EXPECTED NEARER
THE MID LEVEL COLD POCKET DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. MORNING SATELLITE
SUGGESTS MODEST TO STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL AZ
AND SRN CA INDICATING MARGINAL SBCAPE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LOW.

..EVANS/GRAMS.. 11/27/2008

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KDLH [271557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 271557
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
957 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
11/27/2008 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0945 AM SNOW LITTLE MARAIS 47.41N 91.11W
11/27/2008 M1.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 AM SNOW 6 NNW WENTWORTH 46.68N 91.88W
11/27/2008 M0.7 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

ON THE AMNICON RIVER

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271250
SWODY1
SPC AC 271247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT UPR FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY. MORE
ACTIVE NRN BRANCH WILL MAINTAIN THE POLAR VORTEX OVER SE CANADA WITH
AN ASSOCD TROUGH SWD INTO THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...A SRN STREAM
UPR LOW OVER SRN CA WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ENE AND DEAMPLIFY WITHIN THE
DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE SRN PLNS. AT THE SFC...A
REINFORCING CDFNT FOLLOWING THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE PLNS/MIDWEST THIS AFTN...REACHING MID-ATLC
CST SWWD INTO THE DEEP S AND CNTRL TX BY 12Z FRIDAY.

...DESERT SW...
SMALL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SRN CA UPR LOW HAS BEEN
ENHANCING BANDS OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE LWR CO VLY AND AZ
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM INTO
CNTRL/NERN AZ THROUGH MID-DAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. ISOLD STRONGER STORMS MAY THRIVE ALONG THE S AND W
EDGES OF THE WARM CONVEYOR OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH PSBL HAIL. OTHERWISE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH COLD
POCKET ALOFT MAY AUGMENT DIURNAL SHOWERS DURING PEAK HEATING.
WEAKENING PHASE OF THE UPR SYSTEM AND MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY DECREASE TSTM CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTN.

...UPR TX CST/SW LA...
A BRIEF AND WEAK PULSE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TIED TO GLANCING
INFLUENCES OF THE NRN STREAM WERE LIKELY CULPRITS TO WDLY SCTD
SHOWERS ALONG THE UPR TX CST/SRN LA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EWD AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

UPR RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SRN CA UPR LOW WILL LIMIT SUPPORT
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. BUT...AS
LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE TONIGHT...LOW-LVL WARM
ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN AND RESULT IN INCREASING RISKS FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS VLY W TO THE UPR TX CST.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE RELEGATED TO VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...OR MORE LIKELY...ON SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
CDFNT ARRIVES. SRN EDGES OF ANY DEVELOPING TSTMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL.

..RACY/HURLBUT.. 11/27/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 270950
SWOD48
SPC AC 270949

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE LARGE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. TROUGH IN PLACE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD...AND EVENTUALLY OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF DAY 6 /TUE. 12-2/.

THROUGH DAY 6...THE ONLY SEVERE THREAT OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IS
INDICATED DAY 4 /SUN. 11-30/...AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF THE SERN
CONUS ON THE LINGERING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION. ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SERN
U.S. COAST -- IF NOT OFFSHORE...THUS PLACING THE WARM SECTOR
GENERALLY OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE ONLY THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
OVER FL AND POSSIBLY SERN GA/AND THE EXTREME COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS. IF AN AMPLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INDEED RESIDES
ACROSS THESE AREAS AS SEEMS AT LEAST POSSIBLE...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. ATTM HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
THAT AMPLE ONSHORE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IS NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF A THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.

LATER IN THE PERIOD -- BEGINNING LATE DAY 6...CYCLOGENESIS IS
INDICATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE LOW AND ATTENDANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH DAY 7. ATTM THOUGH...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING SUFFICIENT FOR APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND THUS SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST.

..GOSS.. 11/27/2008

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KAMA [270758]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 270758
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
158 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSE BOISE CITY 36.69N 102.49W
11/14/2008 M60 MPH CIMARRON OK MESONET

0113 PM WILDFIRE 7 ESE HARTLEY 35.84N 102.29W
11/14/2008 M330 ACRE HARTLEY TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

THE COUNTY ROAD 44 WILDFIRE BEGAN JUST NORTH OF COUNTY
ROAD Q AND JUST EAST OF COUNTY ROAD 44. NO STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE OR INJURIES WERE REPORTED. A TOTAL OF 4 FIRE
DEPARTMENTS INCLUDING THE DALHART...CHANNING AND HARTLEY
FIRE DEPARTMENTS...RESPONDED TO THE FIRE. THE CAUSE OF
THE WILDFIRE WAS DETERMINED TO BE DOWNED TRANSMISSION
LINES. THE FIRE WAS REPORTEDLY CONTAINED APPROXIMATELY
AT 1600 HOURS CST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0800884 AMA0800885

$$

KJS

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KAMA [270758]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 270758
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
158 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0113 PM WILDFIRE 7 ESE HARTLEY 35.84N 102.29W
11/14/2008 M330 ACRE HARTLEY TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

THE COUNTY ROAD 44 WILDFIRE BEGAN JUST NORTH OF COUNTY
ROAD Q AND JUST EAST OF COUNTY ROAD 44. NO STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE OR INJURIES WERE REPORTED. A TOTAL OF 4 FIRE
DEPARTMENTS INCLUDING THE DALHART...CHANNING AND HARTLEY
FIRE DEPARTMENTS...RESPONDED TO THE FIRE. THE CAUSE OF
THE WILDFIRE WAS DETERMINED TO BE DOWNED TRANSMISSION
LINES. THE FIRE WAS REPORTEDLY CONTAINED APPROXIMATELY
AT 1600 HOURS CST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0800885

$$

KJS

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 270743
SWODY3
SPC AC 270742

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
U.S. AND CANADA CONTINUE THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE
NAM/ECMWF/GFS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE SMALLER/EMBEDDED FEATURES
WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. ALL MODELS HOWEVER HOLD THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ROUGHLY STATIONARY AS IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS...AND
LIKEWISE MAINTAIN AN ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
WRN GULF/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ENEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY FLOW FIELD
WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITHIN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INVOF
THE LINGERING SURFACE FRONT. WITH TORNADO THREAT LIKELY TO REMAIN
LOW DUE TO VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD...AND WITH INSTABILITY/LAPSE
RATES LIKELY UNSUPPORTIVE OF AN APPRECIABLE HAIL THREAT...MAIN
THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE AN ISOLATED/DAMAGING GUST OR TWO. GIVEN THE
FAIRLY STRONG WIND FIELD ANTICIPATED...THE EVOLUTION OF A FEW
STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS COULD RESULT IN A WIND THREAT GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ATTM HOWEVER...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITY...WITH THE APPARENT LACK OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR.

..GOSS.. 11/27/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 270657
SWODY2
SPC AC 270654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH A RIDGE EXPANDING ENEWD ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
WILL INCREASINGLY AFFECT THE W COAST REGION. THOUGH MODELS REMAIN
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...DIFFERENCES
IN SMALL-SCALE DETAILS BEGIN TO EMERGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

ONE OF THESE EMERGING DIFFERENCES -- REGARDING SMALLER-SCALE
FEATURES OVER THE SRN PLAINS -- MAY AFFECT THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
WHILE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
INVOF THE GULF COAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WWD INTO SOUTHEAST
TX...THE GFS FORECASTS CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER MS LATE
AS IT BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE NAM IN TERMS OF THE SMALLER-SCALE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

IN ANY CASE...THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- AND A
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL -- THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS -- LIKELY ONGOING INVOF THE
SURFACE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITHIN MOIST/MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD HINDER OVERALL
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS
THIS REGION WOULD RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZATION WITHIN
ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER CELLS. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINAL HAIL...OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR --
PARTICULARLY IF AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER OR TWO COULD EVOLVE.

GENERALLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- AND THUS A QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
WLY WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT -- SHOULD GENERALLY HINDER APPRECIABLE
TORNADO POTENTIAL. SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT COULD HOWEVER EVOLVE
ACROSS MS LATE...IF THE CYCLOGENESIS DEPICTED BY THE GFS INDEED
OCCURS. ATTM HOWEVER...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY SEE TEXT/LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITY.

..GOSS.. 11/27/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270526
SWODY1
SPC AC 270523

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST WED NOV 26 2008

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE COLD UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES...WITHIN A NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES. AT THE
SAME TIME...TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST WITHIN A SOUTHERN
BRANCH...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. BUT...MODELS INDICATE THAT
A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL LIFT OUT OF THIS SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...AS A VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE PROGRESSES INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...BEFORE DIGGING THROUGH THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE
APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN AS IT
ACCELERATES INTO A CONFLUENT REGIME BETWEEN THE TWO BELTS OF
WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SOME
SUPPRESSION OF SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGING MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE MAY PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER
...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PROGGED
TO BECOME CUT-OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS. AND...COUPLED WITH REMNANT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/
PRECIPITATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY PROBABLY SHOULD BE LIMITED...
DESPITE THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THUS...WHILE
SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER EARLY DAY STORMS...THIS RISK IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IF NOT BEFORE.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF STATES...
CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. BUT...A GENERALLY WEAK AND WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL ONLY RESULT IN A SLOW AND EASTWARD
ADVECTION OF THIS AIR MASS TOWARD CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS AND
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CAPPING LAYERS BENEATH
MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION PROBABLY WILL SUPPRESS
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...AS LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHERE INHIBITION FOR
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS COULD BRIEFLY WEAKEN NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
THIS OCCURS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.

A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD...INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS A SHALLOW COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANYING A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE ADVANCES SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH A GRADUAL
NORTH TO SOUTH COOLING ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION...MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS...MOSTLY INLAND OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

..KERR/HURLBUT.. 11/27/2008

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