SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271852
AZZ000-272045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 271852Z - 272045Z
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN AZ WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.
A VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS EJECTING ENEWD THROUGH SERN AZ WITH AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE OVER SE CA. DRY SLOT AND PARTIAL CLEARING IN WAKE
OF LEAD IMPULSE HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF SRN AZ. THERMAL TROUGH AND
STEEPER 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ATTENDING THE UPPER LOW WERE
ADVECTING EAST THROUGH SRN AZ ABOVE A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 60S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 50S. THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS HAS RESULTED IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY OVER S CNTRL AZ. BULK
SHEAR OVER SE AZ IS SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. STRONGEST
STORM WHICH IS LOCATED SW OF KEARNY CONTINUES TO SHOW ROTATION ALONG
WITH LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND RECENT MESH
VALUES. SHEAR WEAKENS WITH WWD EXTENT CLOSER TO UPPER LOW
CENTER...BUT LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO COOL.
..DIAL.. 11/27/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 34141167 33621053 32701049 31831149 31861246 32371261
33021223 33711219 34141167
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