Wednesday, October 20, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1957

ACUS11 KWNS 210325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210325
TXZ000-NMZ000-210430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM...FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 700...

VALID 210325Z - 210430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 700
CONTINUES.

SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY OVER S
CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX. THESE STORMS ARE MAINLY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN NM. COOLING
ALOFT WILL ALSO PERSIST AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EWD.
THEREFORE...DESPITE SOME DIURNAL STABILIZING EFFECTS...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS PERSISTENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

..JEWELL.. 10/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31600644 32960652 33540656 34160600 34250501 34180422
33700385 33070355 32450346 31910360 31360384 30540490
30930566 31600644

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGRR [210324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGRR 210324
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1124 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM NON-TSTM WND GST S BIG SABLE POINT 44.05N 86.51W
10/20/2010 M48.00 MPH MASON MI AWOS

A NONE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST TO 48 MPH HAPPENED AT 630
PM THIS EVENING.

0855 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.28W
10/20/2010 M56.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL SITE AT SOUTH HAVEN.

0940 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE KALAMAZOO 42.24N 85.56W
10/20/2010 M45.00 MPH KALAMAZOO MI ASOS

0943 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW BATTLE CREEK 42.31N 85.25W
10/20/2010 M44.00 MPH CALHOUN MI ASOS

0945 PM NON-TSTM WND GST EAST LEROY 42.17N 85.22W
10/20/2010 E65.00 MPH CALHOUN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

1011 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW JACKSON 42.26N 84.46W
10/20/2010 M39.00 MPH JACKSON MI ASOS

1045 PM NON-TSTM WND GST JACKSON 42.25N 84.41W
10/20/2010 E45.00 MPH JACKSON MI EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN COUNTY.


&&

$$

BMARINO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGRR [210323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 210323
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1121 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM NON-TSTM WND GST S BIG SABLE POINT 44.05N 86.51W
10/20/2010 M48 MPH MASON MI AWOS

A NONE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST TO 48 MPH HAPPENED AT 630
PM THIS EVENING.


&&

$$

BMARINO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGRR [210257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 210257
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1057 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE KALAMAZOO 42.24N 85.56W
10/20/2010 M45.00 MPH KALAMAZOO MI ASOS

0943 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW BATTLE CREEK 42.31N 85.25W
10/20/2010 M44.00 MPH CALHOUN MI ASOS

1011 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW JACKSON 42.26N 84.46W
10/20/2010 M39.00 MPH JACKSON MI ASOS


&&

$$

JK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGRR [210246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 210246
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1046 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 PM NON-TSTM WND GST JACKSON 42.25N 84.41W
10/20/2010 E45 MPH JACKSON MI EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN COUNTY.


&&

$$

RSUTTLE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGRR [210220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 210220
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1020 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.28W
10/20/2010 M56 MPH VAN BUREN MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL SITE AT SOUTH HAVEN.


&&

$$

RSUTTLE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGRR [210214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 210214
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1014 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 PM NON-TSTM WND GST EAST LEROY 42.17N 85.22W
10/20/2010 E65 MPH CALHOUN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.


&&

$$

RSUTTLE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KABQ [210149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 210149
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
749 PM MDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM HAIL 2 SSE MILAN 35.17N 107.87W
10/20/2010 E1.00 INCH CIBOLA NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002170

$$

AA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KABQ [210143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 210143
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
743 PM MDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0738 PM HAIL SAN RAFAEL 35.11N 107.88W
10/20/2010 E0.88 INCH CIBOLA NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002169

$$

AA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGRB [210123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 210123
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
823 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 8 NE JUNCTION CITY 44.66N 89.63W
10/20/2010 PORTAGE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO TREES KNOCKED DOWN NEAR LAKE DU BAY - TIME ESTIMATED


&&

$$

TSK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KVEF [210049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 210049
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
549 PM PDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0521 PM FLOOD 5 ENE DOWNTOWN LAS VEGA 36.19N 115.05W
10/20/2010 CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOWING WATER 1 FOOT DEEP AT OWENS AVE AND CHRISTY LN


&&

$$

JACQUES

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210038
SWODY1
SPC AC 210036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX INTO SRN NM...

...SRN ROCKIES/WEST TX...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WRN EDGE OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NRN MEXICO...ABOUT 100 MI SOUTH OF
ELP...NWD ACROSS WEST TX INTO SRN NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND RADAR DATA
CERTAINLY SUPPORTS THIS WITH SEVERAL LONGER LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LATEST WDSS MESH DATA ALSO SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF GOLF
BALLS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. WITH LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THIS REGION IT APPEARS
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST TX INTO SERN NM.

..DARROW.. 10/21/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KEPZ [210030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 210030
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
630 PM MDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM HAIL 8 NNE OROGRANDE 32.48N 106.03W
10/20/2010 E1.50 INCH OTERO NM OTHER FEDERAL

PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT A BORDER PATROL
CHECKPOINT ON HIGHWAY US54. SMALLER HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND.


&&

$$

LUNDEEN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KAPX [210023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KAPX 210023
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
823 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0818 PM HAIL KALKASKA 44.73N 85.18W
10/20/2010 M0.50 INCH KALKASKA MI TRAINED SPOTTER


0819 PM HAIL LOVELLS 44.81N 84.47W
10/20/2010 M0.25 INCH CRAWFORD MI TRAINED SPOTTER


0820 PM HAIL 2 S FREDERIC 44.76N 84.73W
10/20/2010 M0.25 INCH CRAWFORD MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1000321 APX1000320 APX1000319

$$

JH

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGJT [210000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 210000
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
600 PM MDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SW CORTEZ 37.30N 108.63W
10/20/2010 M58 MPH MONTEZUMA CO ASOS


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000699

$$

NL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KABQ [202355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 202355
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL GALLUP 35.52N 108.73W
10/20/2010 E0.88 INCH MCKINLEY NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002168

$$

AA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 700

WWUS20 KWNS 202343
SEL0
SPC WW 202343
NMZ000-TXZ000-210600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM MDT WED OCT 20 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
FAR WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 545 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RUIDOSO NEW MEXICO TO 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF EL PASO TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF SEVERE STORMS...SOME WITH SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS...WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX OVER NRN
MEXICO...AND AN INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE RIO GRANDE AND
PECOS VALLEYS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 20025.


...THOMPSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KEPZ [202327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 202327
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
527 PM MDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM TSTM WND GST 18 NNE WHITE SANDS MAIN 32.62N 106.37W
10/20/2010 M66 MPH DONA ANA NM MESONET

66 MPH WIND GUST FROM WHITE SANDS MESONET OBS SITE.


&&

$$

LUNDEEN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KEPZ [202325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 202325
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
525 PM MDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL EL PASO 31.78N 106.48W
10/20/2010 M1.00 INCH EL PASO TX ASOS

ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED BY ASOS OBSERVER AT EL PASO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.


&&

$$

LUNDEEN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KAPX [202305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 202305
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
704 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0659 PM HAIL VANDERBILT 45.14N 84.66W
10/20/2010 M0.25 INCH OTSEGO MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1000318

$$

JZ

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1956

ACUS11 KWNS 202259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202258
TXZ000-NMZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NM...FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202258Z - 210000Z

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

PEAK HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH FROM NRN MEXICO INTO S CNTRL NM. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AGITATED CU OVER NRN MEXICO WITH
WATER VAPOR SUGGESTING COOLING ALOFT NOW OVERSPREADING THAT AREA.
GIVEN INCREASING MOIST SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS W TX/SE
NM...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW LEVEL VEERING AND INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WILL RESULT IN
HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 10/20/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33800556 33600514 32590462 31170435 30730427 30340426
30200483 30510578 31240672 31920697 33040757 33540710
33720643 33800556

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMQT [202238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 202238
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
638 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0629 PM HAIL 5 E ROUND LAKE 46.15N 86.65W
10/20/2010 E0.25 INCH DELTA MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JMWIX

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMQT [202236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 202236
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
636 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0602 PM HAIL 2 WNW CHATHAM 46.35N 86.97W
10/20/2010 E0.25 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JMWIX

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KAPX [202147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 202147
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
547 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 3 NE DRUMMOND ISLAND 46.04N 83.66W
10/20/2010 M0.25 INCH CHIPPEWA MI COCORAHS

NO RAIN OCCURRED. WIND GUSTED TO 38 MPH.


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1000317

$$

JH

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAN [202112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 202112
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 AM TSTM WND DMG CRANFIELD 31.54N 91.21W
10/20/2010 ADAMS MS EMERGENCY MNGR

12 TREES WERE DOWNED NEAR CRANFIELD.


&&

$$

DL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KIWX [202107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 202107
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
507 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM WILDFIRE LIGONIER 41.46N 85.59W
10/20/2010 U0 ACRE NOBLE IN BROADCAST MEDIA

12 ACRE FIELD FIRE WITH SOME STORAGE BUILDINGS AND
SHEDS DAMAGED


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1001062

$$

JC

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KIWX [202102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 202102
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
501 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM WILDFIRE 1 NW TWELVE MILE 40.88N 86.24W
10/20/2010 U0 ACRE CASS IN EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE FIRE IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME...FIRE HAS SPREAD
INTO WOODS...FIVE DEPARTMENTS ON SCENE


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1001061

$$

JC

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201935
SWODY1
SPC AC 201933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX INTO SERN NM...

...SERN NM THROUGH SWRN TX...

STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WWD INTO S-CNTRL
AND SWRN TX. ELY-SELY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED AS FAR NWWD AS
SERN NM BENEATH STEEPER 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S...BOOSTING MLCAPE TO 1000
J/KG. ZONE OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM SWRN U.S. UPPER
LOW IS SLOWLY SHIFTING NEWD IN WAKE OF NW-SE ORIENTED DEFORMATION
AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITHIN THIS REGION...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME. ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING AND
VEERING TO SWLY 30-35 KT WITH HEIGHT IS RESULTING IN 30-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS PROFILE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES/CLUSTERS
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING.

...AZ AND NM...

OTHER STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN AZ INTO
NWRN NM WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLDER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR IS
MARGINAL. ISOLATED HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES GIVEN
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS.

..DIAL.. 10/20/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT-OFF FROM PRIMARY WESTERLIES AND WILL MOVE
ONLY SLOWLY E FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION NEAR SRN CA/BAJA BORDER NEAR
IPL TO SWRN AZ 12Z THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SERN NM AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS
ALL OF NM INTO SWRN TX COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL/SERN NM INTO SWRN TX...
SELY LOW LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S F OVER MUCH OF SWRN TX INTO SERN NM AND
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NWD INTO CENTRAL NM BY EVENING. STEEP LAPSE
RATES COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS
WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS DIABATIC HEATING ELIMINATES ANY REMAINING WEAK CAP.
WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO EXHIBIT VEERING WITH HEIGHT PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY.
THIS WILL PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF
TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL SERN NM THRU THIS
EVENING WHERE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS SHOULD BE GREATEST. A FEW
STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY
OVER PARTS OF SERN NM WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30 KT OR
MORE. HAVE INCLUDED A LITTLE MORE OF CENTRAL NM IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AS IT NOW APPEARS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD FARTHER N.


...FAR SRN NV/SERN CA INTO NM...
DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS
REGION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...ACROSS AZ
AND VICINITY INITIALLY AND THEN SPREADING EWD INTO NM LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION MAY ALLOW A FEW
LONGER-LIVED STORMS TO EVOLVE DESPITE MODEST CAPE. WHILE
APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

ONLY CHANGE TO EARLIER OUTLOOK WAS TO INCLUDE MORE OF SRN AZ IN THE
SEE TEXT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD UPPER LOW.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KDLH [201931]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 201931
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
231 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WIRT 47.73N 93.96W
10/20/2010 E55.00 MPH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

THE HIGH WIND GUSTS BLEW DOWN SEVERAL POPLAR TREES 6-8
INCHES IN DIAMETER. POWER IS OUT.


&&

$$

TLONKA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAN [201752]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 201752
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 AM TSTM WND DMG ROXIE 31.51N 91.07W
10/20/2010 FRANKLIN MS UTILITY COMPANY

ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WERE OBSERVED IN THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH SOME DOWN POWER LINES.


&&

$$

MM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KAPX [201751]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 201751
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
151 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0137 PM HAIL 2 SE MACKINAW CITY 45.76N 84.70W
10/20/2010 E0.25 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF STIMPSON
ROAD AND US23


&&

$$

BERGER

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAN [201747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 201747
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1247 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM TSTM WND DMG FAYETTE 31.71N 91.06W
10/20/2010 JEFFERSON MS UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED AROUND FAYETTE FOR AROUND ONE
HOUR DUE TO BLOWN POWER LINES.


&&

$$

MM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 201722
SWODY2
SPC AC 201720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN NM INTO A
LARGE PART OF WRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW
THURSDAY. A STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
DROP SEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...CONTRIBUTING TO CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE AND ADVANCE SEWD
THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

FARTHER WEST...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NRN BAJA WILL
EJECT THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE WRN U.S. COAST.

...EXTREME ERN NM THROUGH WRN TX...

SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN
ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH.
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH 50S TO NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS WILL BE
ADVECTED NWWD THROUGH WRN TX AND ERN NM BENEATH STEEPER LAPSE RATES
WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS OVER A PORTION OF ERN
AND NERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH INITIAL
IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH UPPER LOW. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
ACROSS WRN TX AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND AS ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY
ROTATES NWD THROUGH UPPER TROUGH. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO 40-45 KT SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
SUPERCELLS...CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID
EVENING.

...NERN STATES...

COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED
UPPER JET WILL PROMOTE A CORRIDOR OF STEEPER /7-7.5 C/KM/ 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL BE
AUGMENTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT PORTION OF THE FRONT LOCATED
WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE DURING THE DAY. SWLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR INCREASING TO 40+ KT ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A MODEST THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE ANTICIPATED WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL SERVE AS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 10/20/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAN [201614]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 201614
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1114 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 S HARRISONBURG 31.69N 91.82W
10/20/2010 CATAHOULA LA EMERGENCY MNGR

SCATTERED TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE REPORTED SOUTH OF HARRISONBURG. THERE WERE
ALSO REPORTS OF POWER OUTAGES IN THE AREA.


&&

$$

MM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAN [201610]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 201610
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1110 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 W WINNSBORO 32.16N 91.74W
10/20/2010 FRANKLIN LA EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE OLD LIMBS HAD BLOWN DOWN WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

MM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201603
SWODY1
SPC AC 201602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/SERN NM INTO SWRN
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT-OFF FROM PRIMARY WESTERLIES AND WILL MOVE
ONLY SLOWLY E FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION NEAR SRN CA/BAJA BORDER NEAR
IPL TO SWRN AZ 12Z THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SERN NM AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS
ALL OF NM INTO SWRN TX COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL/SERN NM INTO SWRN TX...
SELY LOW LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S F OVER MUCH OF SWRN TX INTO SERN NM AND
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NWD INTO CENTRAL NM BY EVENING. STEEP LAPSE
RATES COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS
WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS DIABATIC HEATING ELIMINATES ANY REMAINING WEAK CAP.
WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO EXHIBIT VEERING WITH HEIGHT PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY.
THIS WILL PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF
TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL SERN NM THRU THIS
EVENING WHERE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS SHOULD BE GREATEST. A FEW
STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY
OVER PARTS OF SERN NM WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30 KT OR
MORE. HAVE INCLUDED A LITTLE MORE OF CENTRAL NM IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AS IT NOW APPEARS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD FARTHER N.


...FAR SRN NV/SERN CA INTO NM...
DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS
REGION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...ACROSS AZ
AND VICINITY INITIALLY AND THEN SPREADING EWD INTO NM LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION MAY ALLOW A FEW
LONGER-LIVED STORMS TO EVOLVE DESPITE MODEST CAPE. WHILE
APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

ONLY CHANGE TO EARLIER OUTLOOK WAS TO INCLUDE MORE OF SRN AZ IN THE
SEE TEXT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD UPPER LOW.

..HALES/GARNER.. 10/20/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KVEF [201438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 201438
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
738 AM PDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL 5 W KINGMAN 35.22N 114.12W
10/19/2010 E0.88 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL FROM 240 PM TO 247 PM.

0434 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SSE BARSTOW 34.87N 117.06W
10/19/2010 E60.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

A COCORAHS OBSERVER ESTIMATED A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH FROM
A THUNDERSTORM.

0434 PM HAIL 1 SSE BARSTOW 34.87N 117.06W
10/19/2010 M1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

A COCORAHS OBSERVER IN BARSTOW REPORTED HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE BROKE WINDOWS ON THEIR HOUSE. THE HAIL ALSO
SHREDDED LEAVES ON TREES.

0440 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DEEP WATER FLOWING IN THE STREETS WITH LIMBS AND HAIL IN
THE FLOODWATERS. FLOODING STARTED AT AROUND 440 PM AND
WAS ONGOING AT 450 PM.

0440 PM HAIL 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 1 INCH HAIL WITH SMALLER HAIL
ACCUMULATING IN THE STREETS. HAIL LASTED FROM 440 TO 450
PM.

0800 PM HAIL 4 N DAGGETT 34.92N 116.89W
10/19/2010 E0.25 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN YERMO.

0857 PM HAIL SEVEN HILLS 35.99N 115.12W
10/19/2010 E0.50 INCH CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL
IN THE SEVEN HILLS AREA OF HENDERSON.

0900 PM HAIL 3 S NWS LAS VEGAS 36.01N 115.19W
10/19/2010 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN SOUTH LAS VEGAS.

0900 PM HAIL DOLAN SPRINGS 35.60N 114.27W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH MOHAVE AZ PUBLIC

HAIL OF AT LEAST QUARTER SIZE BROKE ALL WINDOWS ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A MOBILE HOME IN DOLAN SPRINGS.THE HAIL ALSO
DENTED THE HOOD OF A TRUCK AND BUSTED A GUTTER ON THE
MOBILE HOME. THE TIME OF THIS EVENT WAS ESTIMATED FROM
RADAR.

0945 PM LIGHTNING 5 WSW NORTH LAS VEGAS 36.23N 115.22W
10/19/2010 CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

LIGHTNING STRUCK A VACANT HOUSE NEAR JONES AND RANCHO IN
THE NORTHWEST PART OF LAS VEGAS STARTING A SMALL FIRE
THAT CAUSED MINOR DAMAGE. THE EVENT TIME IS ESTIMATED.
SEVERAL TREES WERE ALSO STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AND CAUGHT ON
FIRE THROUGHOUT THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

1150 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E BARSTOW 34.87N 117.01W
10/19/2010 E60.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER ESTIMATED WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH IN BARSTOW
FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

1154 PM HAIL 3 E BARSTOW 34.87N 117.01W
10/19/2010 M0.88 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKLE SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY A SPOTTER IN BARSTOW.
THE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

1155 PM HAIL 3 ENE BARSTOW 34.89N 117.02W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

A GAS STATION EMPLOYEE REPORTED HAIL RANGING FROM A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER IN BARSTOW.

1243 AM HAIL BULLHEAD CITY 35.15N 114.56W
10/20/2010 E0.25 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN BULLHEAD CITY BY A SPOTTER.


0650 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE BOULDER CITY 35.97N 114.82W
10/20/2010 M0.30 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED MINOR STREET FLOODING IN BOULDER CITY
FROM A THUNDERSTORM. THE SPOTTERS STORM TOTAL SINCE
YESTERDAY WAS 0.55 INCH AND THEY RECEIVED 0.30 INCH FROM
THIS MORNING.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW DOWNTOWN LAS VEGA 36.14N 115.16W
10/20/2010 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED 10 INCHES TO A FOOT OF STANDING WATER
AT THE INTERSECTION OF LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD AND SAHARA
AVENUE.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KVEF [201426]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 201426
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
726 AM PDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL 5 W KINGMAN 35.22N 114.12W
10/19/2010 E0.88 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL FROM 240 PM TO 247 PM.

0440 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DEEP WATER FLOWING IN THE STREETS WITH LIMBS AND HAIL IN
THE FLOODWATERS. FLOODING STARTED AT AROUND 440 PM AND
WAS ONGOING AT 450 PM.

0440 PM HAIL 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 1 INCH HAIL WITH SMALLER HAIL
ACCUMULATING IN THE STREETS. HAIL LASTED FROM 440 TO 450
PM.

0800 PM HAIL 4 N DAGGETT 34.92N 116.89W
10/19/2010 E0.25 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN YERMO.

0857 PM HAIL SEVEN HILLS 35.99N 115.12W
10/19/2010 E0.50 INCH CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL
IN THE SEVEN HILLS AREA OF HENDERSON.

0900 PM HAIL DOLAN SPRINGS 35.60N 114.27W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH MOHAVE AZ PUBLIC

HAIL OF AT LEAST QUARTER SIZE BROKE ALL WINDOWS ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A MOBILE HOME IN DOLAN SPRINGS.THE HAIL ALSO
DENTED THE HOOD OF A TRUCK AND BUSTED A GUTTER ON THE
MOBILE HOME. THE TIME OF THIS EVENT WAS ESTIMATED FROM
RADAR.

0900 PM HAIL 3 S NWS LAS VEGAS 36.01N 115.19W
10/19/2010 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN SOUTH LAS VEGAS.

0945 PM LIGHTNING 5 WSW NORTH LAS VEGAS 36.23N 115.22W
10/19/2010 CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

LIGHTNING STRUCK A VACANT HOUSE NEAR JONES AND RANCHO IN
THE NORTHWEST PART OF LAS VEGAS STARTING A SMALL FIRE
THAT CAUSED MINOR DAMAGE. THE EVENT TIME IS ESTIMATED.
SEVERAL TREES WERE ALSO STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AND CAUGHT ON
FIRE THROUGHOUT THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

1150 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E BARSTOW 34.87N 117.01W
10/19/2010 E60.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER ESTIMATED WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH IN BARSTOW
FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

1154 PM HAIL 3 E BARSTOW 34.87N 117.01W
10/19/2010 M0.88 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKLE SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY A SPOTTER IN BARSTOW.
THE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

1155 PM HAIL 3 ENE BARSTOW 34.89N 117.02W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

A GAS STATION EMPLOYEE REPORTED HAIL RANGING FROM A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER IN BARSTOW.

1243 AM HAIL BULLHEAD CITY 35.15N 114.56W
10/20/2010 E0.25 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN BULLHEAD CITY BY A SPOTTER.


0650 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE BOULDER CITY 35.97N 114.82W
10/20/2010 M0.30 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED MINOR STREET FLOODING IN BOULDER CITY
FROM A THUNDERSTORM. THE SPOTTERS STORM TOTAL SINCE
YESTERDAY WAS 0.55 INCH AND THEY RECEIVED 0.30 INCH FROM
THIS MORNING.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW DOWNTOWN LAS VEGA 36.14N 115.16W
10/20/2010 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED 10 INCHES TO A FOOT OF STANDING WATER
AT THE INTERSECTION OF LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD AND SAHARA
AVENUE.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201242
SWODY1
SPC AC 201240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN NM AND SWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN STATES IS REINFORCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD ACROSS
SRN MAN/NWRN ONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOWER LATITUDE
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER EXTREME NRN BAJA CA NOW MOVING SLOWLY
EWD...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH SWRN AZ LATER TONIGHT.

...SERN NM/SWRN TX...
SELY LOW LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS SWRN TX...IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S F OVER MUCH OF SWRN TX AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO SERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE
RATES EVIDENT IN 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS DIABATIC HEATING ELIMINATES ANY REMAINING WEAK CAP.
WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO EXHIBIT VEERING WITH HEIGHT PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY.
THIS WILL PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
STORM INTENSITY MAY SLOWLY WEAKEN BY 03-06Z...A FEW STRONGER CELLS
MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN
NM.

...FAR SRN NV/SERN CA INTO NM...
DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS
REGION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...ACROSS AZ
AND VICINITY INITIALLY AND THEN SPREADING EWD INTO NM LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION MAY ALLOW A FEW
LONGER-LIVED STORMS TO EVOLVE DESPITE MODEST CAPE. WHILE
APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

..WEISS/ROGERS.. 10/20/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KVEF [201228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 201228
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
528 AM PDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL 5 W KINGMAN 35.22N 114.12W
10/19/2010 E0.88 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL FROM 240 PM TO 247 PM.

0440 PM HAIL 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 1 INCH HAIL WITH SMALLER HAIL
ACCUMULATING IN THE STREETS. HAIL LASTED FROM 440 TO 450
PM.

0440 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DEEP WATER FLOWING IN THE STREETS WITH LIMBS AND HAIL IN
THE FLOODWATERS. FLOODING STARTED AT AROUND 440 PM AND
WAS ONGOING AT 450 PM.

0800 PM HAIL 4 N DAGGETT 34.92N 116.89W
10/19/2010 E0.25 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN YERMO.

0857 PM HAIL SEVEN HILLS 35.99N 115.12W
10/19/2010 E0.50 INCH CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL
IN THE SEVEN HILLS AREA OF HENDERSON.

0900 PM HAIL 3 S NWS LAS VEGAS 36.01N 115.19W
10/19/2010 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN SOUTH LAS VEGAS.

0945 PM LIGHTNING 5 WSW NORTH LAS VEGAS 36.23N 115.22W
10/19/2010 CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

LIGHTNING STRUCK A VACANT HOUSE NEAR JONES AND RANCHO IN
THE NORTHWEST PART OF LAS VEGAS STARTING A SMALL FIRE
THAT CAUSED MINOR DAMAGE. THE EVENT TIME IS ESTIMATED.
SEVERAL TREES WERE ALSO STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AND CAUGHT ON
FIRE THROUGHOUT THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

1150 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E BARSTOW 34.87N 117.01W
10/19/2010 E60.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER ESTIMATED WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH IN BARSTOW
FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

1154 PM HAIL 3 E BARSTOW 34.87N 117.01W
10/19/2010 M0.88 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKLE SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY A SPOTTER IN BARSTOW.
THE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

1155 PM HAIL 3 ENE BARSTOW 34.89N 117.02W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

A GAS STATION EMPLOYEE REPORTED HAIL RANGING FROM A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER IN BARSTOW.

1243 AM HAIL BULLHEAD CITY 35.15N 114.56W
10/20/2010 E0.25 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN BULLHEAD CITY BY A SPOTTER.

&&

$$

STACHELSKI

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAN [201153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 201153
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
653 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 AM TSTM WND GST 1 WNW STANTON 31.62N 91.25W
10/20/2010 M53.00 MPH ADAMS MS OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0538 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 E NATCHEZ 31.55N 91.29W
10/20/2010 ADAMS MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO TREES DOWN...ONE OF THEM LARGE...ON OLD HIGHWAY 84
NUMBER 3.


&&

$$

ACOHEN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 200844
SWOD48
SPC AC 200844

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
EJECTING SWRN CONUS LOW...DESCRIBED IN DAY-2/DAY-3 OUTLOOKS...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH GEN
WEAKENING TREND...MAIN QUESTION BEING...HOW WEAK? CONSIDERABLE
VARIATION IS EVIDENT BY THIS PERIOD IN MREF AND DETERMINISTIC PROGS
OF AMPLITUDE/TILT OF THIS PERTURBATION...AND RELATED CHARACTER OF
LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS. SOME SVR MAY BE POSSIBLE DAY-4/22ND-23RD
FROM COLD-CORE REGION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER NEB SWD ACROSS PORTIONS
SRN PLAINS...HOWEVER POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL TO ASSIGN 30%
PROBABILITY AREA ATTM.

GEN AGREEMENT EXISTS ON UPSTREAM PATTERN WITHIN AND JUST AHEAD OF
STG/ZONAL NERN PAC JET BY DAY-5/24TH-25TH...LED BY AMPLIFYING SERN
CONUS SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM AZ/NM ACROSS TX AND NRN MEX. AS
USUAL...MAIN UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT LIE IN CRUCIAL DETAILS.
MOST MREF MEMBERS ARE 6-12 HOURS AHEAD OF 00Z/120 HOUR ECMWF 500 MB
FCST OVER TX...WHICH ITSELF IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF OPERATIONAL
SPECTRAL/UKMET. LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO THIS PERTURBATION APPEARS
NEBULOUS IN MANY PROGS...AND IT MAY IMPEDE SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN TO LARGER/MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH
EVOLVING OVER NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS REGION DAYS 6-7/25TH-27TH.

..EDWARDS.. 10/20/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KVEF [200818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 200818
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
118 AM PDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL 5 W KINGMAN 35.22N 114.12W
10/19/2010 E0.88 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL FROM 240 PM TO 247 PM.

0440 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DEEP WATER FLOWING IN THE STREETS WITH LIMBS AND HAIL IN
THE FLOODWATERS. FLOODING STARTED AT AROUND 440 PM AND
WAS ONGOING AT 450 PM.

0440 PM HAIL 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 1 INCH HAIL WITH SMALLER HAIL
ACCUMULATING IN THE STREETS. HAIL LASTED FROM 440 TO 450
PM.

0800 PM HAIL 4 N DAGGETT 34.92N 116.89W
10/19/2010 E0.25 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN YERMO.

0857 PM HAIL SEVEN HILLS 35.99N 115.12W
10/19/2010 E0.50 INCH CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL
IN THE SEVEN HILLS AREA OF HENDERSON.

0900 PM HAIL 3 S NWS LAS VEGAS 36.01N 115.19W
10/19/2010 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN SOUTH LAS VEGAS.

1150 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E BARSTOW 34.87N 117.01W
10/19/2010 E60.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER ESTIMATED WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH IN BARSTOW
FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

1154 PM HAIL 3 E BARSTOW 34.87N 117.01W
10/19/2010 M0.88 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKLE SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY A SPOTTER IN BARSTOW.
THE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

1155 PM HAIL 3 ENE BARSTOW 34.89N 117.02W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

A GAS STATION EMPLOYEE REPORTED HAIL RANGING FROM A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER IN BARSTOW.

1243 AM HAIL BULLHEAD CITY 35.15N 114.56W
10/20/2010 E0.25 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN BULLHEAD CITY BY A SPOTTER.

&&

$$

STACHELSKI

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 200729
SWODY3
SPC AC 200728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BREAKDOWN OF WRN CONUS REX PATTERN...DESCRIBED IN DAY-2
OUTLOOK...WILL LEAD TO NEWD EJECTION OF MID-UPPER LOW AND
ACCOMPANYING/NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THIS PERIOD. BY 23/12Z...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IS EVIDENT
IN SREF PROGS AND OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/WRF REGARDING POSITION OF
500-MB LOW OR VORTICITY CENTER...WITH INCONSISTENCIES ALSO REGARDING
CLOSURE/OPENNESS OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND POSITION/DEPTH OF RESULTING
SFC CYCLONE. AS PRIMARY VORTICITY LOBE MOVES NEWD OUT OF NM AND
OVER WRN KS...INITIAL LEE-SIDE LOW OVER SERN CO WILL INTENSIFY AND
MOVE NEWD AS WELL...BUT WITH STRENGTH/TRACK RATHER UNCERTAIN ATTM
BEYOND ABOUT 22/18Z. SFC FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD MOVE EWD
ACROSS PANHANDLES AND W TX...BUT NOT AS FAST AS DAY-2/EARLY DAY3
CONVECTION...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OVER PORTIONS SW KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK AND NW TX.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS SHOULD CARRY OVER FROM DAY-2 PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS SRN KS...OK AND PERHAPS NW TX...WITH SVR POTENTIAL EXPECTED
TO BE MRGL DURING EARLY-MORNING MIN IN BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS KS/OK AND WEAKEN...LEAVING
BEHIND TEMPORARILY STABILIZED AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY
50S F. DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
IS EXPECTED DURING AFTERNOON INVOF CONVERGENCE ZONE. CAPPING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STG OVER ANY AREAS FROM NW TX TO SRN KS
THAT EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF SUSTAINED SFC HEATING.
THEREFORE...FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP...CONDITIONAL BUT
POTENTIALLY MULTI-MODAL SEVERE RISK IS APPARENT. BELT OF 40-60 KT
500 MB WSWLYS IS POSSIBLE SE OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER OUTLOOK
AREA...CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
COMPONENT OF FLOW ACROSS PROSPECTIVE FOCI FOR TSTM GENESIS.
FAVORABLY LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
ARE EVIDENT IN FCST SOUNDINGS...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL RISK WITH
HAIL/SVR GUSTS/TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

ATTM...MAIN UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVE
1. AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR BEHIND EARLY CONVECTION
AND RELATED CLOUD COVER OVER NRN PART OF AREA FROM WRN/SRN KS TO NW
TX...AND
2. SRN LIMIT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NW/W-CENTRAL TX. WITH
SWD EXTENT...EXPECT DECREASES IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH SIZE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT...WHILE CAPPING INCREASES.

..EDWARDS.. 10/20/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KVEF [200646]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 200646
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1146 PM PDT TUE OCT 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL 5 W KINGMAN 35.22N 114.12W
10/19/2010 E0.88 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL FROM 240 PM TO 247 PM.

0440 PM HAIL 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 1 INCH HAIL WITH SMALLER HAIL
ACCUMULATING IN THE STREETS. HAIL LASTED FROM 440 TO 450
PM.

0440 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DEEP WATER FLOWING IN THE STREETS WITH LIMBS AND HAIL IN
THE FLOODWATERS. FLOODING STARTED AT AROUND 440 PM AND
WAS ONGOING AT 450 PM.

0800 PM HAIL 4 N DAGGETT 34.92N 116.89W
10/19/2010 E0.25 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN YERMO.

0857 PM HAIL SEVEN HILLS 35.99N 115.12W
10/19/2010 E0.50 INCH CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL
IN THE SEVEN HILLS AREA OF HENDERSON.

0900 PM HAIL 3 S NWS LAS VEGAS 36.01N 115.19W
10/19/2010 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN SOUTH LAS VEGAS.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFWD [200642]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected Location

NWUS54 KFWD 200642 CCA
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED LOCATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
142 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1244 AM HAIL 6 SW BLUFF DALE 32.35N 98.02W
10/20/2010 E1.75 INCH ERATH TX NWS EMPLOYEE

FORMER NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS HAIL BRIEFLY INCREASED TO
GOLFBALL SIZE BEFORE ENDING.

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 200558
SWODY2
SPC AC 200557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
OVER WRN CONUS...REX PATTERN FCST TO PREVAIL IN MIDDLE-UPPER LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY PART OF PERIOD...WHEREUPON STG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR
OVER PAC COAST REGION IN ADVANCE OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO EJECTION OF CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER COASTAL NWRN BAJA. SREF MEMBERS AND
OPERATIONAL WRF/SPECTRAL MODELS ARE IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT ON
POSITIONING OF THIS LOW OVER WRN/SWRN AZ BY 21/12Z...WITH STG
CONSENSUS OF THESE PROGS REGARDING TRACK OF PRIMARY VORTICITY LOBE
TOWARD NERN NM OVER ENSUING 24 HOURS...WITH SOME OPENING OF HEIGHT
CONTOURS TO ITS NW. PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE TILT IS FCST WITH
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LEADING TO REGIME OF STG UPPER
DIFLUENCE SPREADING EWD FROM ERN NM ACROSS SRN PLAINS DURING DAY-3.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS ERN NM AND W TX.

FARTHER NE...DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FCST
ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION SWD OVER CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIANS.
INITIALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION -- NOW EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW OVER
PORTIONS SK/MB -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD AND EWD ACROSS NRN ONT TO WRN
QUE DAY-1...EVOLVING INTO 500-MB LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE ENEWD TO NEWD
OVER CENTRAL/NRN QUE THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EWD/SEWD FROM INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC REGION AT 21/12Z ACROSS
MOST OF NEW ENGLAND BY 22/00Z...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS MAINE.
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON OVER VT/NH OR ADJACENT
PORTIONS SRN QUE...AND MOVE EWD ACROSS MAINE.

...PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/ERN NM ACROSS PORTIONS TX
PANHANDLE/SOUTH-PLAINS REGION DURING AFTERNOON-EVENING...SHIFTING
EWD OVER PORTIONS NW TX...WRN OK AND PERHAPS SWRN KS OVERNIGHT.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR
BOWS. ATTM IT IS TOO SOON TO JUDGE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
AND THEREFORE PRIMARY SVR MODE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FAIRLY DENSE
AGGREGATE COVERAGE OF TSTMS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RH PROGS FOR EARLY IN PERIOD
REASONABLY INDICATE LIMITED PACE/STRENGTH OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING
ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM AND PANHANDLE REGION...BENEATH DENSE CLOUD
COVER ALOFT. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST...HOWEVER...
THAT EVEN MUTED INSOLATION WITH SFC DEW POINTS 50S F WILL WEAKEN
CINH SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ABUNDANT CONVECTION...IN TANDEM WITH
CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT. FLOW IS FCST TO VEER WITH HEIGHT BENEATH
SUFFICIENTLY STG MIDLEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES. BOTH HEATING AND CAPPING ARE FCST TO STRENGTHEN WITH
SWD EXTENT ACROSS W TX...LEAVING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION MORE UNCERTAIN...HENCE DECREASING UNCONDITIONAL SVR
PROBABILITIES. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT INTO GRADUALLY
MORE STABLE SFC AIR MASS WITH EWD EXTENT...ALTHOUGH DIABATICALLY
COOLED LAYER MAY REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PERMIT STG-SVR GUSTS TO
REACH SFC IN SOME LOCALES.

...SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD
INVOF FRONT...OVER INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC REGION...IN REGIME OF COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR MASS E OF MOUNTAINS DESTABILIZES WITH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SFC HEATING...ALREADY-WEAK CINH WILL BE
REMOVED...SUPPORTING EITHER INTENSIFICATION OR REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT IN QUASI-LINEAR FASHION...AMIDST
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE PRESENCE OF MRGL MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S F PROGGED. NONETHELESS...ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED
ETA-KF SOUNDINGS YIELD SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WITH 100-800 J/KG
MLCAPE...EXTENDING INTO ICING LAYERS FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE RATHER FAST-MOVING...I.E. 35-45 KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STG-DAMAGING GUSTS IN MOST PERSISTENT/INTENSE CELLS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/20/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFWD [200550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 200550
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1249 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1244 AM HAIL BLUFF DALE 32.35N 98.02W
10/20/2010 E1.75 INCH ERATH TX NWS EMPLOYEE

FORMER NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS HAIL BRIEFLY INCREASED TO
GOLFBALL SIZE BEFORE ENDING.

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFWD [200547]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 200547
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1231 AM HAIL 6 SW BLUFF DALE 32.29N 98.09W
10/20/2010 M1.25 INCH ERATH TX NWS EMPLOYEE

FORMER NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS HALF DOLLAR HAIL STRIPPING
LEAVES OFF TREES.

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200535
SWODY1
SPC AC 200533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM AND FAR
W TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS
NOAM...WITH THE SRN PORTION OF A LARGE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN UPPER LOW
PROGRESSING VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN CA/SRN AZ AND ADJACENT NWRN
MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...SERN NM/FAR W TX...
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS S OF THIS AREA. AS 50S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTED WWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIURNALLY-WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER...500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE
IS EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD TOWARD CENTRAL
TX...THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- AIDED BY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT.

MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELYS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THUS...EXPECT A FEW
STORMS TO STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- WITH
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION...CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD.

...FAR SRN NV/SERN CA EWD INTO NM...
DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS
REGION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...ACROSS AZ
AND VICINITY INITIALLY AND THEN SPREADING EWD INTO NM LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION MAY ALLOW A FEW
LONGER-LIVED STORMS TO EVOLVE DESPITE MODEST CAPE. WHILE
APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 10/20/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFWD [200530]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 200530
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1229 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1226 AM HAIL MORGAN MILL 32.38N 98.17W
10/20/2010 E0.88 INCH ERATH TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKEL HAIL IN MORGAN MILL

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.