SWODY1
SPC AC 200533
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM AND FAR
W TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS
NOAM...WITH THE SRN PORTION OF A LARGE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN UPPER LOW
PROGRESSING VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN CA/SRN AZ AND ADJACENT NWRN
MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...SERN NM/FAR W TX...
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS S OF THIS AREA. AS 50S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTED WWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIURNALLY-WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER...500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE
IS EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD TOWARD CENTRAL
TX...THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- AIDED BY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT.
MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELYS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THUS...EXPECT A FEW
STORMS TO STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- WITH
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION...CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD.
...FAR SRN NV/SERN CA EWD INTO NM...
DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS
REGION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...ACROSS AZ
AND VICINITY INITIALLY AND THEN SPREADING EWD INTO NM LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION MAY ALLOW A FEW
LONGER-LIVED STORMS TO EVOLVE DESPITE MODEST CAPE. WHILE
APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
..GOSS/GRAMS.. 10/20/2010
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