KSHV [020342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020342
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1042 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 PM HAIL HAUGHTON 32.53N 93.51W
11/01/2010 M0.50 INCH BOSSIER LA NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

12

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KSHV [020322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020322
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1022 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 PM HAIL 8 WNW STONEWALL 32.31N 93.94W
11/01/2010 E0.75 INCH CADDO LA TRAINED SPOTTER

PENYY SIZED HAIL IN KEITHVILLE

&&

$$

12

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2033

ACUS11 KWNS 020319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020319
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-020445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738...

VALID 020319Z - 020445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738
CONTINUES.

THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF WW 738 IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
WW AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW REGIME...AND AN
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO ADVANCE INTO/
THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL REMAIN CENTERED
ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND THE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE HAIL
PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME...AS INSTABILITY
ONLY SLOWLY WANES.

..KERR.. 11/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 30489564 31129462 32209413 33059415 33789392 33829292
33149173 32429195 31019285 29959423 29789538 30489564

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KSHV [020318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020318
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1018 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM HAIL 6 S SHREVEPORT 32.38N 93.80W
11/01/2010 E0.88 INCH CADDO LA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KSHV [020313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020313
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1013 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0922 PM HAIL HAUGHTON 32.53N 93.51W
11/01/2010 E0.50 INCH BOSSIER LA PUBLIC

1009 PM HAIL PLAIN DEALING 32.91N 93.70W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH BOSSIER LA BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

12

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 739

WWUS20 KWNS 020309
SEL9
SPC WW 020309
TXZ000-CWZ000-021000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
COTULLA TEXAS TO 60 MILES EAST OF AUSTIN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 738...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF LOW LVL
CONFLUENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH ERN AND SE TX STORMS...AND ELEVATED
STORMS FORMING ATOP SHALLOW FRONTAL IN THE TX HILL
COUNTRY...EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH
EARLY TUE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT/MID LVL COOLING SPREAD SEWD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING W TX UPR VORT. QUALITY OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE...STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND STRENGTHENING OF
MID/UPR LVL WIND FIELD TOGETHER SUGGEST SOME LIKELIHOOD FOR ROTATING
STORMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND...DESPITE POTENTIAL
FOR DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE OF STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MERGE INTO
ONE OR TWO COMPLEX MCSS THAT MOVE MAINLY SE TO THE CNTRL/LWR TX GULF
CST LATER IN THE WATCH PERIOD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.

...CORFIDI

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KSGF [020245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 020245
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
945 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0944 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNE STOCKTON 37.78N 93.75W
11/01/2010 M3.90 INCH CEDAR MO BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC OBSERVER REPORTED 3.9 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON. NO FLOODING OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.

&&

$$

BOXELL

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KSHV [020230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020230
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
930 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM HAIL 4 S BOSSIER CITY 32.46N 93.66W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH BOSSIER LA BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

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KSHV [020227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020227
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
927 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0909 PM HAIL 4 S BOSSIER CITY 32.47N 93.66W
11/01/2010 E0.75 INCH BOSSIER LA NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

12

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KSHV [020225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020225
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
925 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0922 PM HAIL 4 ENE BOSSIER CITY 32.54N 93.60W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH BOSSIER LA NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

12

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KSGF [020222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 020222
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
922 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM FLOOD 5 N STOCKTON 37.77N 93.80W
11/01/2010 CEDAR MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINOR FLOODING REPORTED BY CEDAR COUNTY DISPATCH ALONG
HIGHWAY J AT COUNTY ROAD 900...NORTH OF STOCKTON.

&&

$$

BOXELL

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KSHV [020159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020159
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
859 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM HAIL SAN AUGUSTINE 31.53N 94.11W
11/01/2010 E0.75 INCH SAN AUGUSTINE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

12

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KSHV [020151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020151
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
851 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0842 PM HAIL 2 N BLANCHARD 32.62N 93.89W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH CADDO LA BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

12

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KTFX [020125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 020125
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
725 PM MDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0341 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GREAT FALLS 47.48N 111.39W
11/01/2010 M58 MPH CASCADE MT ASOS

&&

$$

WILLIAMSON DC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020058
SWODY1
SPC AC 020057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF S THROUGH E TX
INTO WRN LA AND SWRN AR...

...S THROUGH E TX...WRN LA AND SWRN AR...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE WRN EXTENT OF THE SRN PLAINS... WITH
THIS FEATURE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INTO TX TONIGHT/ EARLY
TUESDAY. STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS /50+ KT/ WERE BEGINNING TO ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO NRN/CENTRAL PARTS OF TX AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD E/SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER E TX TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT...
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE OK/AR BORDER SSWWD INTO NERN TX AND
THEN SWWD TO NEAR AUS TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION...WILL ADVANCE SEWD
TOWARD THE TX COAST. TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE NRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AND SWWD
INTO S TX WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX
GULF COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.

RECENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE W AND N
OF HOU...WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM 50 S CLL TO IER
AND ALSO NWD TO THE VICINITY OF SHV AND ARKLATEX REGION. A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND E TO S OF THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /30-40 KT/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS...INITIALLY DISCRETE AS SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED AT A
GREATER ANGLE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES. GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE NWRN GULF MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. OTHERWISE...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
COLDER H5 TEMPERATURES SPREAD SEWD WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO SWLY...WHICH SUGGESTS
ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE LATER THIS EVENING
WITH BOTH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 11/02/2010

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 738

WWUS20 KWNS 020055
SEL8
SPC WW 020055
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-020800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM UNTIL
300 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST OF
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF ANGLETON TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH EARLY TUE OVER PARTS OF ERN/SE TX AND WRN LA AS LOW LVL
WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING W TX UPR
TROUGH. WEAK MID LVL FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BACK.
COUPLED WITH EXISTING LOW LVL FORCING MECHANISMS /MAINLY THE SSW-NNE
BOUNDARY FROM W OF KHGX TO NEAR KSHV/...SETUP SHOULD FAVOR BROKEN
LINE SEGMENTS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW
LVL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR MCS OUTFLOW BNDRY IN THE KHGX/KGLS
AREA...AND RICH MOISTURE...SUGGEST A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT ACROSS
THAT REGION. THIS THREAT...HOWEVER...APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A
SEPARATE TORNADO WATCH ATTM.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21025.

...CORFIDI

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KLCH [020041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 020041
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
741 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD ABBEVILLE 29.97N 92.12W
11/01/2010 VERMILION LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ABBEVILLE POLICE REPORT NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED AS WELL AS
WATER ENTERING SOME HOMES AND BUISNESSES.

&&

$$

MOGGED

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2032

ACUS11 KWNS 020034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020033
TXZ000-020230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 020033Z - 020230Z

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO
AREAS. A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A ZONE OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY PROVIDED AN EARLIER FOCUS
FOR A FAILED ATTEMPT AT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS ZONE MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR INCREASING NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME...AS MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STRENGTHENS
DRAMATICALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SIZABLE CAPE WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AS WEST NORTHWESTERLY
500 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KT.

..KERR.. 11/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29640003 30149937 30499822 30779737 30729672 30119666
29679714 29349797 29189873 29109956 29259988 29640003

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KSEW [020033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 020033
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
533 PM PDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW BELFAIR 47.43N 122.89W
11/01/2010 M2.97 INCH MASON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL SINCE 830 PM SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

GRUB

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2031

ACUS11 KWNS 012324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012324
TXZ000-020100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012324Z - 020100Z

IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED. BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

THE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING REMAINS
A BIT UNCLEAR. BUT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNDERWAY NEAR THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE AXIS OF STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND THE AXIS OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN /AS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS/...NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION HAS SUPPRESSED ACTIVITY SO FAR...BUT
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH...AND PERHAPS RADIATIONAL COOLING ATOP THE DEEP
SURFACE BASED MOIST LAYER...MAY WEAKEN CAPPING BETWEEN NOW AND
02-03Z.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
WEAK...STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.

..KERR.. 11/01/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON 29909673 30869557 31509487 31689422 31289368 30999377
29789499 29399563 29169674 29619701 29909673

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KAKQ [012100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KAKQ 012100
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
459 PM EDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 NE BOWLING GREEN 38.07N 77.32W
10/27/2010 CAROLINE VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTING. NO DAMAGE REPORTS PER THE
EMERGENGY MANAGER AND NWS STORM SURVEY ASSESSMENT.

&&

$$

HURLEY

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 012046
SWODY2
SPC AC 012045

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC ERROR #2

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IS
FORECAST TO DIG SSEWD AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN AND SRN
TX TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN FAR EAST CENTRAL TX IN THE MORNING... WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWD INTO THE WRN GULF AND A WARM
FRONT LOCATED IN FAR SRN LA. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING SWD AND
CLOSING OFF...THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD EDGE ONLY SLOWLY
E/SEWD INTO LA.

...ERN TX/NRN AND CENTRAL LA...
VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ALONG EAST AND NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PCPN/CONVECTION TO BE
OCCURRING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAIN COOLED AIR
SHOULD STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY
REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT BEFORE 02/12Z. HOWEVER... RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A STORM OR TWO
COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ACROSS FAR ERN TX/LA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. ANY THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS
FORCING AND INSTABILITY WEAKEN.

...FAR SERN LA AND MS COAST...
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SERN LA
AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE MS COAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT SPREADS EWD...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A BAND/LINE OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NWRN GULF
AND FAR SRN LA. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH SOME DIURNAL
HEATING...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. DESPITE
LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WIND SPEEDS AT
ONLY 10 KT FROM 850-650 MB. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND GUST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...OVERALL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE.

..IMY.. 11/01/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 012039
SWODY2
SPC AC 012038

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC ERROR

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IS
FORECAST TO DIG SSEWD AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN AND SRN
TX TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN FAR EAST CENTRAL TX IN THE MORNING... WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWD INTO THE WRN GULF AND A WARM
FRONT LOCATED IN FAR SRN LA. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING SWD AND
CLOSING OFF...THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD EDGE ONLY SLOWLY
E/SEWD INTO LA.

...ERN TX/NRN AND CENTRAL LA...
VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ALONG EAST AND NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PCPN/CONVECTION TO BE
OCCURRING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAIN COOLED AIR
SHOULD STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY
REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT BEFORE 02/12Z. HOWEVER... RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A STORM OR TWO
COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ACROSS FAR ERN TX/LA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. ANY THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS
FORCING AND INSTABILITY WEAKEN.

...FAR SERN LA AND MS COAST...
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SERN LA
AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE MS COAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT SPREADS EWD...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A BAND/LINE OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NWRN GULF
AND FAR SRN LA. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH SOME DIURNAL
HEATING...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. DESPITE
LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WIND SPEEDS AT
ONLY 10 KT FROM 850-650 MB. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND GUST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...OVERALL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE.

..IMY.. 11/01/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011945
SWODY1
SPC AC 011943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST
TX...WESTERN AR...AND WESTERN LA......

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SLOWER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THAN THE PAST FEW
GFS/NAM MODEL RUNS. WIDESPREAD NON-SEVERE CONVECTION WAS CURRENTLY
LOCATED WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER SERN TX/SRN
LA...BUT THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN SERN TX AND SHIFT NEWD AS
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE REDEVELOPS NWD...AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND DROPS SWD INTO TX.

SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT
AS CU HAVE RECENTLY BEEN NOTED DEVELOPING ALONG THIS SYSTEM IN NERN
TX AND CENTRAL TX NEAR A TXK TO TEMPLE LINE. THE STRENGTHENING LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE TODAY...PROBABLY AROUND OR AFTER 00Z GIVEN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FAVORABLE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE SEWD MOVING FRONT OVERNIGHT. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..IMY.. 11/01/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010/

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING/ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX/LA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED RICH GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO TX/LA WITH 70 F
DEWPOINTS ALMOST AS FAR NORTH AS SHV. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH TIME COMBINED WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.

MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE TX/LA COAST. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY ROTATE WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW
IN THIS AREA.

LATER TODAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST TX AND WESTERN LA. STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND CAPE
IN THIS AREA WILL PROMOTE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX...AND SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. DESPITE INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY WANE BY MIDNIGHT.

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KSEW [011851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 011851
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1151 AM PDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE MONTESANO 46.98N 123.50W
11/01/2010 M2.20 INCH GRAYS HARBOR WA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL AT 1130 AM IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KMFR [011718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 011718
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1018 AM PDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE HARBOR 42.00N 124.20W
10/31/2010 M2.00 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR AMOUNT ENDING AT 9 PM PDT

&&

$$

SPILDE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 011705
SWODY2
SPC AC 011704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IS
FORECAST TO DIG SSEWD AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN AND SRN
TX TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN FAR EAST CENTRAL TX IN THE MORNING... WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWD INTO THE WRN GULF AND A WARM
FRONT LOCATED IN FAR SRN LA. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING SWD AND
CLOSING OFF...THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD EDGE ONLY SLOWLY
E/SEWD INTO LA.

...ERN TX/NRN AND CENTRAL LA...
VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ALONG EAST AND NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PCPN/CONVECTION TO BE
OCCURRING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAIN COOLED AIR
SHOULD STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY
REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT BEFORE 02/12Z. HOWEVER... RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A STORM OR TWO
COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ACROSS FAR ERN TX/LA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. ANY THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS
FORCING AND INSTABILITY WEAKEN.

...FAR SERN LA AND MS COAST...
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SERN LA
AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE MS COAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT SPREADS EWD...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A BAND/LINE OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NWRN GULF
AND FAR SRN LA. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH SOME DIURNAL
HEATING...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. DESPITE
LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WIND SPEEDS AT
ONLY 10 KT FROM 850-650 MB. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND GUST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...OVERALL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE.

..IMY.. 11/01/2010

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KSEW [011638]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 011638
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
938 AM PDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW BELFAIR 47.43N 122.89W
11/01/2010 M2.10 INCH MASON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL IN 12 HOURS.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KPAH [011618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 011618
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1113 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 AM TORNADO 3 W MOUNT CARMEL 38.42N 87.83W
10/26/2010 WABASH IL NWS STORM SURVEY

A TORNADO RATED AT EF0 WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 2.5 MILES
WITH A WIDTH OF ABOUT 50 YARDS. MAINLY TREE DAMAGE. SOME
MINOR SIDING DAMAGE TO A HOUSE. PEAK WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 75 MPH. THIS TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND APPROXIMATELY 3
MINUTES.

0729 AM TORNADO 1 S ALLENDALE 38.51N 87.71W
10/26/2010 WABASH IL NWS STORM SURVEY

THIS TORNADO WAS RATED AT EF1 AND WAS ON THE GROUND
APPROXIMETLY 2 MINUTES. THE PATH WAS 1.2 MILES LONG AND
75 YARDS WIDE AT TIMES. PEAK WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90
MPH. THE PATH WAS FROM 1.5 MILES SOUTH OF ALLENDALE TO
1.5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALLENDALE. MAINLY TREE DAMAGE WAS
FOUND.

0730 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 SE ALLENDALE 38.52N 87.70W
10/26/2010 WABASH IL NWS STORM SURVEY

A MICROBURST ABOUT 30 YARDS IN WIDTH AND LESS THAN .5
MILES IN LENGTH OCCURRED 1.5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ALLENDALE. DAMAGE WAS TO TREES. THIS PATH WAS ABOUT 100
YARDS SOUTH OF THE EF1 TORNADO.

&&

$$

PATS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011613
SWODY1
SPC AC 011611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST
TX...WESTERN AR...AND WESTERN LA...

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING/ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX/LA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED RICH GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO TX/LA WITH 70 F
DEWPOINTS ALMOST AS FAR NORTH AS SHV. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH TIME COMBINED WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.

MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE TX/LA COAST. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY ROTATE WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW
IN THIS AREA.

LATER TODAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST TX AND WESTERN LA. STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND CAPE
IN THIS AREA WILL PROMOTE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX...AND SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. DESPITE INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY WANE BY MIDNIGHT.

..HART/ROGERS.. 11/01/2010

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KPUB [011607]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 011607
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1007 AM MDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW 6 E MONUMENT 39.10N 104.76W
11/01/2010 M0.8 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL BETWEEN 0700 AND 0900 AM MDT.

&&

$$

RMG

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KPQR [011602]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KPQR 011602
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 AM PDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CANNON BEACH 45.89N 123.96W
11/01/2010 M62.00 MPH CLATSOP OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0241 AM NON-TSTM WND GST PACIFIC CITY 45.20N 123.96W
11/01/2010 M58.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET

0340 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT 46.27N 124.08W
11/01/2010 E59.00 MPH PACIFIC WA MESONET

0355 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WARRENTON 46.17N 123.92W
11/01/2010 M40.00 MPH CLATSOP OR MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS.

0355 AM NON-TSTM WND GST TOKELAND 46.71N 123.98W
11/01/2010 M44.00 MPH PACIFIC WA MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS.

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST OCEAN PARK 46.50N 124.04W
11/01/2010 M50.00 MPH PACIFIC WA MESONET

0405 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
11/01/2010 M40.00 MPH LINCOLN OR MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS.

&&

$$

GMACKE

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KPQR [011520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 011520
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
820 AM PDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CANNON BEACH 45.89N 123.96W
11/01/2010 M62.00 MPH CLATSOP OR TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GMACKE

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KTFX [011238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 011238
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
638 AM MDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/01/2010 M80.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

80 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011237
SWODY1
SPC AC 011235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM
THE ARKLATEX TO S CENTRAL TX...

...ARKLATEX TO S CENTRAL TX LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CO WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL
TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ERN OK TO CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TODAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE SEWD TOWARD THE TX COAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NW
GULF COAST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE
LOW-MID 70S.

WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CONTINUED MOISTENING WILL SUPPORT THE GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
AND SW LA. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
FARTHER NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE ARKLATEX SWD INTO ERN AND S CENTRAL
TX WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SUCH
THAT MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 1500-2500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITHIN A LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND
WHICH WILL EVOLVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. MODERATE MLCAPE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM AND
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF STORM INTERACTIONS AND A MORE LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE.

..THOMPSON/STOPPKOTTE.. 11/01/2010

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KTFX [011057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 011057
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
456 AM MDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W SAINT MARY 48.74N 113.71W
10/31/2010 M78.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

78 MPH WIND GUST AT THE LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER.

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W SAINT MARY 48.74N 113.71W
11/01/2010 M75.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

75 MPH WIND GUST AT THE LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [010935]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 010935
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
335 AM MDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/01/2010 M63.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

63 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/01/2010 M79.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

79 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010830
SWOD48
SPC AC 010829

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY
AHEAD OF EJECTING GULF TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS FORECAST OVER THE ERN
GOM AT 05/00Z WITH A BELT OF MID LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50KT OVER
THE BODY OF FL. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE SHEAR ACROSS THE
SUNSHINE STATE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SOUTH IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. PRIOR TO THIS...IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PENINSULA AS THE GFS
FAILS TO ALLOW MORE THAN ~500 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
FOR THIS REASON WILL NOT INTRODUCE THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY4. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE MAY BE WARRANTED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EJECTING TROUGH.

..DARROW.. 11/01/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010709
SWODY3
SPC AC 010709

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...ERN GULF STATES...

UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL BE NUDGED INTO THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS FALL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MID MS/OH
VALLEY REGION. LATEST NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS SCENARIO WITH STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW AT LOWER LATITUDES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF FL...H5 FLOW IN EXCESS OF
50KT AT LEAST 150 MI OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
LIKELY BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE MOISTENING
WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GIVEN THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE UPPER
LOW/FORCING OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AT THE END OF THE DAY3
PERIOD...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OVER FL SHOULD DO SO
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 11/01/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010542
SWODY1
SPC AC 010540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX/WRN LA SWWD TO S
TX...

...S THROUGH E TX INTO WRN LA...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN OK SWWD TO THE
TX BIG BEND REGION AT 12Z TODAY. THIS WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
EWD/SEWD TODAY REACHING E TX AND ARCING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE TX COAST AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.

MOIST SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER MS
VALLEY WILL AID IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY AS
SURFACE HEATING OCCURS BENEATH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG.

FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH A LEAD IMPULSE AND INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS WITH
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTION/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY OVER E TX/WRN LA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL THEN DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE EXIT
REGION OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE ATTENDANT
DIGGING TROUGH. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MID-UPPER LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN...ORGANIZED STORMS/SOME SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM PARTS OF E TX/SWRN LA TO THE MIDDLE TX
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONGER...ENHANCING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

BACKING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD INTO TX WILL RESULT IN
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS BECOMING ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD
FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LINEAR WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE TX COAST.

..PETERS/SMITH.. 11/01/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 010529
SWODY2
SPC AC 010528

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...

THE NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED TO A SIMILAR SOLUTION REGARDING THE
EVOLVING UPPER LOW OVER TX...SPECIFICALLY THEIR 500MB POSITION AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE
MIDDLE TX COAST NEAR PSX. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES EARLIER
THOUGHTS REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EAST TX WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...IT APPEARS VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL ONLY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS -- NOT SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE JUST OFF THE LA
COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC WAVE...SWD
ALONG SHARP COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL GULF.

..DARROW.. 11/01/2010

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