SWODY1
SPC AC 011943
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST
TX...WESTERN AR...AND WESTERN LA......
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SLOWER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THAN THE PAST FEW
GFS/NAM MODEL RUNS. WIDESPREAD NON-SEVERE CONVECTION WAS CURRENTLY
LOCATED WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER SERN TX/SRN
LA...BUT THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN SERN TX AND SHIFT NEWD AS
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE REDEVELOPS NWD...AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND DROPS SWD INTO TX.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT
AS CU HAVE RECENTLY BEEN NOTED DEVELOPING ALONG THIS SYSTEM IN NERN
TX AND CENTRAL TX NEAR A TXK TO TEMPLE LINE. THE STRENGTHENING LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE TODAY...PROBABLY AROUND OR AFTER 00Z GIVEN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FAVORABLE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE SEWD MOVING FRONT OVERNIGHT. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..IMY.. 11/01/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010/
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING/ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX/LA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED RICH GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO TX/LA WITH 70 F
DEWPOINTS ALMOST AS FAR NORTH AS SHV. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH TIME COMBINED WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE TX/LA COAST. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY ROTATE WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW
IN THIS AREA.
LATER TODAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST TX AND WESTERN LA. STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND CAPE
IN THIS AREA WILL PROMOTE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX...AND SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. DESPITE INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY WANE BY MIDNIGHT.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment