Tuesday, July 31, 2007

KGLD [010227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGLD 010227
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
827 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0402 PM HAIL 15 S GOODLAND 39.13N 101.71W
07/31/2007 E1.00 INCH WALLACE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM HAIL 1 S BENKELMAN 40.04N 101.54W
07/31/2007 E1.25 INCH DUNDY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0650 PM HAIL BENKELMAN 40.05N 101.54W
07/31/2007 E0.88 INCH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM HAIL 2 E BENKELMAN 40.05N 101.50W
07/31/2007 E1.00 INCH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND GUST ALSO

0720 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N MAX 40.17N 101.40W
07/31/2007 E60.00 MPH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KJAX [010152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KJAX 010152
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 AM LIGHTNING PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
07/31/2007 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

BETWEEN 1117 AND 1126 AM LIGHTNING STRUCK PROPERTY AND
CAR AT 91 EMERSON DR IN PALM COAST. TWO TIRES WERE BLOWN
OUT OF CAR. AT 4 OLD KINGS RD IN PALM COAST LIGHTNING
STRUCK A BUILDING.

0316 PM TSTM WND DMG BUNNELL 29.47N 81.26W
07/31/2007 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE TREE FELL ON A POWERLINE

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NNW BOSTWICK 29.91N 81.70W
07/31/2007 CLAY FL UTILITY COMPANY

REPORTS OF POWERLINES DOWN ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 17 NORTH OF
THE PUTNAM COUNTY LINE. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNE PALATKA 29.69N 81.64W
07/31/2007 PUTNAM FL UTILITY COMPANY

REPORTS OF POWERLINES DOWN ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 17 AND
RIVER ROAD IN PALATKA. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

0419 PM HEAVY RAIN CRESCENT CITY 29.44N 81.52W
07/31/2007 M1.50 INCH PUTNAM FL TRAINED SPOTTER

BEGAN AT 350 PM EDT. ALSO REPORTED STREET FLOODING.

0433 PM TSTM WND DMG POMONA PARK 29.50N 81.59W
07/31/2007 PUTNAM FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES BLOWN DOWN NEAR RESIDENT HOME. POSSIBLE TORNADO
TOUCHDOWN.

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG SATSUMA 29.55N 81.66W
07/31/2007 PUTNAM FL UTILITY COMPANY

REPORTS OF POWERLINES DOWN ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 17 IN THE
SATSUMA AREA. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN KEYSTONE HEIGHTS 29.78N 82.03W
07/31/2007 M4.14 INCH CLAY FL BROADCAST MEDIA

AT MCRAE ELEMENTARY BETWEEN KEYSTONE HEIGHTS AND
FLORAHOME


&&

$$

PP

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KJAX [010149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 010149
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN KEYSTONE HEIGHTS 29.78N 82.03W
07/31/2007 M4.14 INCH CLAY FL BROADCAST MEDIA

AT MCRAE ELEMENTARY BETWEEN KEYSTONE HEIGHTS AND
FLORAHOME


&&

$$

PP

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KBIS [010148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 010148
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
848 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0813 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 ENE NEWBURG 48.76N 100.81W
07/31/2007 BOTTINEAU ND TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE FOOT DIAMETER TREES DOWN. KNOCKED OVER GRAIN BIN AND
AUGER.


&&

$$

SWICHE

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KGLD [010127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 010127
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
727 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N MAX 40.17N 101.40W
07/31/2007 E60.00 MPH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KMRX [010126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 010126
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
925 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG CASTLEWOOD 36.88N 82.29W
07/31/2007 RUSSELL VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL *** A ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF OF THE PIZZA TOWN
RESTAURANT ON TO A CAR...KILLING ONE OCCUPANT. REPORTED
BY THE SHERIFFS DISPATCH AND T.V. BROADCASTER.


&&

$$

FERRELL

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KGLD [010105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 010105
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
704 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM HAIL 2 E BENKELMAN 40.05N 101.50W
07/31/2007 E1.00 INCH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND GUST ALSO


&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KGLD [010101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 010101
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
701 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM HAIL BENKELMAN 40.05N 101.54W
07/31/2007 E0.88 INCH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KBIS [010100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 010100
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
759 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0734 PM HAIL BURLINGTON 48.28N 101.43W
07/31/2007 E0.88 INCH WARD ND PUBLIC

0744 PM HAIL BURLINGTON 48.28N 101.43W
07/31/2007 E1.00 INCH WARD ND PUBLIC

0735 PM HAIL 1 W MINOT 48.23N 101.32W
07/31/2007 E0.88 INCH WARD ND PUBLIC


&&

$$

SWICHE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010053
SWODY1
SPC AC 010051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER CNTRL ND...

..ND...

TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG A PRESSURE
TROUGH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER N OF MOT...THROUGH MOT TO W OF
BIS AND INTO NWRN SD...SW OF Y22. MODIFICATION OF 00Z BIS SOUNDING
FOR A MORE MOIST BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER /SIMILAR TO DVL
AND JMS SURFACE CONDITIONS/ YIELDS AN MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG WITH
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOREOVER...CURRENT
MINOT AFB VWP INDICATES MODESTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 35-40
KT IN LOWEST 6 KM AGL.

GIVEN THE AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS /SOME PERHAPS
EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. THE MORE INTENSE CELLS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OWING TO STRONG
EVAPORATION COOLING POTENTIAL /DCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J PER KG/ AS
WELL AS SOME HAIL. THIS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
BETWEEN 04-05Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO SLOWLY COOL AND
STABILIZE.

..AZ...

AIR MASS OVER WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE STATE REMAINS RELATIVELY HOT AND
MOIST THIS EVENING WITH 00Z SOUNDING FROM THE PHX AREA INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY /SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ AND A BOUNDARY
LAYER DEPTH TO AROUND 760 MB. WHILE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT OVERLY
SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL...AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT
WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE WSWWD INTO
RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.

.MEAD.. 08/01/2007

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KGLD [010050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 010050
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
650 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM HAIL 1 S BENKELMAN 40.04N 101.54W
07/31/2007 E1.25 INCH DUNDY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KBIS [010042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 010042
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
742 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0729 PM HAIL DES LACS 48.26N 101.56W
07/31/2007 E1.00 INCH WARD ND TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

SWICHE

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KTWC [010013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 010013
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
513 PM MST TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM FLASH FLOOD TUCSON 32.24N 110.94W
07/31/2007 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL *** ONE PERSON DROWNED AT RODEO WASH NEAR
PARK AND AJO.


&&

$$

GLADER

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KTWC [312342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 312342
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
442 PM MST TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM FLASH FLOOD TUCSON 32.24N 110.94W
07/31/2007 PIMA AZ PARK/FOREST SRVC

10 FT RISE ON SANTA CRUZ RIVER AT TUCSON/CONGRESS STREET
IN 2 HOURS. CRESTED NEAR 10.8 FT...WHICH IS ABOVE
BANKFULL STAGE BUT JUST BELOW THE 11 FT FLOOD STAGE.


&&

$$

PYTLAK

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KRNK [312316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 312316
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
716 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM HAIL 5 SSW UNION 37.52N 80.57W
07/31/2007 E0.75 INCH MONROE WV TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY HAIL REPORTED ALONG PETERS MOUNTAIN.


&&

$$

JH

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KRNK [312255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 312255
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
655 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 PM HAIL 5 NW NATURAL BRIDGE 37.68N 79.61W
07/31/2007 E0.75 INCH ROCKBRIDGE VA PUBLIC


&&

$$

RMG

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1621

ACUS11 KWNS 312254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312254
NDZ000-SDZ000-010100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND FAR NORTHERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 312254Z - 010100Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/SEVERE HAIL MAY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND FAR NORTHERN
SD. EXPECTED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.

LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 1003 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHWEST ND...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SD/MT/WY BORDER REGION. THE AMBIENT
AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE/VERY DEEPLY MIXED ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100 F AND CLOUD
BASES ESTIMATED TO BE WELL ABOVE 10K FT PER MODIFIED 12Z BISMARCK
RAOB AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. AS MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
ND/FAR NORTHERN SD...DEEPLY MIXED/HIGH DCAPE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR
STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. MODEST WINDS
THROUGH THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL
STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GENERALLY 25-30
KT...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW RESIDES NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER.

.GUYER.. 07/31/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

48970185 48840033 48369998 46800025 45780132 45380290
46220340 47700316 48660263

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KLCH [312253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 312253
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
553 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM TSTM WND GST CAMERON 29.80N 93.30W
07/31/2007 M43 MPH CAMERON LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED AT THE CAMERON NOS TIDE GUAGE.


&&

$$

DML

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KTWC [312238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 312238
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
337 PM MST TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM FLASH FLOOD SABINO CANYON 32.34N 110.81W
07/31/2007 PIMA AZ PARK/FOREST SRVC

3.5 FT RISE ON SABINO CREEK IN ONE HOUR


&&

$$

PYTLAK

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KMRX [312232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 312232
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG CASTLEWOOD 36.88N 82.29W
07/31/2007 RUSSELL VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW HOMES HAD SHINGLES DAMAGED AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN.
REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS DISPATCH.


&&

$$

FERRELL

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KMRX [312216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 312216
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
616 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NW WARTBURG 36.14N 84.64W
07/31/2007 MORGAN TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE DOWN IN LANSING. REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS
DISPATCH.

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S WARTBURG 36.09N 84.59W
07/31/2007 MORGAN TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN JUST SOUTH OF WARTBURG.
REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS DISPATCH.


&&

$$

FERRELL

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KTWC [312210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 312210
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 PM MST TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM FLASH FLOOD TUCSON 32.24N 110.94W
07/31/2007 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

NUMEROUS STREETS FLOODED IN DOWNTOWN TUCSON


&&

$$

PYTLAK

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KGLD [312203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 312203
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
403 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0402 PM HAIL 15 S GOODLAND 39.13N 101.71W
07/31/2007 E1.00 INCH WALLACE KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FOLTZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1620

ACUS11 KWNS 312158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312158
AZZ000-010100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN AZ.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 312158Z - 010100Z

RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM HEAVIEST AMONG
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF AZ. MERGING STORMS AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL HELP TO FOCUS THREAT LOCALLY.

SPORADIC HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS PIMA COUNTY MAY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND GROW/MOVE NWWD ACROSS PORTIONS NRN/WRN
PINAL...MARICOPA AND ERN YUMA COUNTIES THROUGH NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP WWD FROM PORTIONS
GILA/YAVAPAI/SRN COCONINO COUNTIES...WITH MOUNTAINS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS BEING PRIMARY FOCI FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT. VERY
RICH MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WITH MODIFIED
20Z PHX RAOB...RUC SOUNDINGS AND GPS PW DATA INDICATING 1.75-2 INCH
PW...PRE-STORM MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG...AND LIGHT ELY FLOW THROUGH
MUD-UPPER LEVELS. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN ABOUT AS FAR AS
THEY WILL AND REMAIN HIGH -- MID 60S ACROSS PORTIONS
MARICOPA/YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES. SOMEWHAT WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STG/DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL...BUT
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT HAZARD THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON.

.EDWARDS.. 07/31/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

32131369 33231373 34121389 35211331 35391286 34971219
34421225 34381155 33731082 33061102 32251161 32001307

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KTWC [312156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 312156
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
256 PM MST TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM FLASH FLOOD HICKIWAN 32.36N 112.49W
07/31/2007 PIMA AZ COUNTY OFFICIAL

3 FT RISE ON HICKIWAN WASH IN ONE HOUR.


&&

$$

PYTLAK

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KTWC [312153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 312153
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
253 PM MST TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM TSTM WND GST DAVIS-MONTHAN AIR FORCE 32.18N 110.87W
07/31/2007 E58 MPH PIMA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

EVANS

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KTWC [312147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 312147
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
247 PM MST TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0246 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NNE TUCSON 32.26N 110.93W
07/31/2007 PIMA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

STREET FLOODING AT 1ST AND GLENN AVENUES


&&

$$

PYTLAK

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KJAX [312142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 312142
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
541 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0419 PM HEAVY RAIN CRESCENT CITY 29.44N 81.52W
07/31/2007 M1.50 INCH PUTNAM FL TRAINED SPOTTER

BEGAN AT 350 PM EDT. ALSO REPORTED STREET FLOODING.


&&

$$

PP

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KJAX [312136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 312136
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
536 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 PM HEAVY RAIN CRESCENT CITY 29.44N 81.52W
07/31/2007 M1.50 INCH PUTNAM FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SINCE 350 PM EDT. ALSO REPORTED STREET FLOODING.


&&

$$

PP

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KTOP [311225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 311225
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
721 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 W OVERBROOK 38.78N 95.59W
07/31/2007 OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HIGHWAY 56 FLOODED WEST OF OVERBROOK. WATER APPEARED 5-6
FEET DEEP ALONG SIDE OF ROAD. SPOTTER REPORTED 3.5 INCHES
OF RAINFALL WITHIN ABOUT AN HOUR AND A HALF.


&&

$$

AW

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KTOP [311218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 311218
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
718 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0717 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW OVERBROOK 38.74N 95.61W
07/31/2007 M2.25 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

DITCHES RUNNING FULL OF WATER WITH WATER FLOWING OVER
DRIVEWAY


&&

$$

SBLAIR

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KTOP [311147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 311147
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 AM HEAVY RAIN READING 38.52N 95.96W
07/31/2007 M2.50 INCH LYON KS PUBLIC

2.5 INCHES WITHIN TWO HOURS. DITCHES FULL OF WATER IN
AREA.


&&

$$

SBLAIR

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KTOP [311143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 311143
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
643 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 N READING 38.62N 95.96W
07/31/2007 M2.70 INCH LYON KS CO-OP OBSERVER

AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT FELL BETWEEN 400AM AND 545AM.


&&

$$

EK

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 310840
SWOD48
SPC AC 310839

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

..DISCUSSION...

..THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES FRIDAY
AUGUST 03...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
UPPER TROUGH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH ONTARIO
AND THE NERN STATES FRIDAY. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE DAY.


FARTHER WEST OVER THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...MODEL
DIFFERENCES HAVE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG WITH MORE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. GFS...UKMET
AND MRF DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. BY SATURDAY AUGUST
04 WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OVER NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECTS THIS
FEATURE EWD BY SUNDAY AUG 05. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION SATURDAY AUG 04 THROUGH MONDAY AUG 06. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME
PREDICTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY A SEVERE THREAT
AREA.

.DIAL.. 07/31/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 310725
SWODY3
SPC AC 310724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY
THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO THURSDAY...GLANCING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND REACHING QUEBEC LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WHILE A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW.


..GREAT LAKES AREA...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF FRONT
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL
PLAINS. THE STRONGER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN POST
FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE 25 TO
35 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH MODEST WLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS BUT MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL...BUT AT
THIS TIME THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS TO NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..NERN U.S....

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SRN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES EWD. INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID 60S
DEWPOINTS THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR INTO THE NERN STATES
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.
HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. A FEW STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NRN
NY AND MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...BUT TIME OF
DAY SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION...BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY.

.DIAL.. 07/31/2007

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KVEF [310624]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 310624
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1124 PM PDT MON JUL 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N SAM BOYD STADIUM 36.13N 115.02W
07/30/2007 M53 MPH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A GUST TO 53 MPH.


&&

$$

CBELL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310619
SWODY2
SPC AC 310618

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN SD...SERN ND INTO NRN
MN...

CORRECTED FOR DAY 1 GRAPHIC

..NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

UPPER TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE EWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DEAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE
NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
AND BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL
SD...WRN NEB AND ERN WY.

AXIS OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH SD AND NEB BENEATH 6.5 TO 7
C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS MLCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THERMAL AXIS. LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER
JET...LEAVING WEAK SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR. WITH TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH BEING NORTH OF U.S. BORDER...THE
STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
POST FRONTAL REGION. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER NRN MN WHERE 30-40 KT WLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
MID LEVEL JET.

AS DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SURFACE FRONT WITH SOME STORMS LIKELY EVOLVING
INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY ADVANCE EWD. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED AND
FASTER MOVING OVER NRN MN WHERE STRONGER WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST.

..WY...

STORMS MAY INITIATE WITHIN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE REGION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WY. DESPITE PRESENCE OF ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WLY WINDS
ALOFT...OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST DUE
TO WEAK MID-UPPER FLOW WITH 10 TO 15 KT AT 500 MB. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...BUT WEAK FLOW THROUGH 500 MB MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.

.DIAL.. 07/31/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310600
SWODY2
SPC AC 310559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

UPPER TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE EWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DEAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE
NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
AND BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL
SD...WRN NEB AND ERN WY.

AXIS OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH SD AND NEB BENEATH 6.5 TO 7
C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS MLCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THERMAL AXIS. LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER
JET...LEAVING WEAK SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR. WITH TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH BEING NORTH OF U.S. BORDER...THE
STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
POST FRONTAL REGION. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER NRN MN WHERE 30-40 KT WLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
MID LEVEL JET.

AS DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SURFACE FRONT WITH SOME STORMS LIKELY EVOLVING
INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY ADVANCE EWD. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED AND
FASTER MOVING OVER NRN MN WHERE STRONGER WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST.

..WY...

STORMS MAY INITIATE WITHIN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE REGION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WY. DESPITE PRESENCE OF ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WLY WINDS
ALOFT...OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST DUE
TO WEAK MID-UPPER FLOW WITH 10 TO 15 KT AT 500 MB. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...BUT WEAK FLOW THROUGH 500 MB MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.

.DIAL.. 07/31/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310552
SWODY1
SPC AC 310550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL EXIST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SRN FRINGE
OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NRN
PLAINS...EFFECTIVELY FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY THIS
EVENING WITH TRAILING PART OF BOUNDARY STRETCHING WWD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. ELSEWHERE...REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE WILL PERSIST FROM SRN
GA/NRN FL WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THEN NWWD WHERE IT MERGES
WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

..DAKOTAS INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF SURFACE FRONT TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 90S
OVER ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A CAP MAY LIMIT
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT /DESPITE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS/ OWING TO EWD ADVECTION OF AN EML OFF THE NRN ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...SHOULD ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP...A THREAT OF MAINLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST OWING TO THE STRONG EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL WITHIN SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING
PORTION OF FRONT OR IN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER SWRN MT
INTO NWRN WY WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
INITIATION. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THOUGH
THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG INDICATE SOME THREAT OF SOME HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

..SERN ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW/MID 70S COMBINING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT MLCAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG. SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS DAYS...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...FOCUSED ALONG PRIMARY FRONT AS WELL AS ANY RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITH MOST
STORMS REMAINING PULSE OR MULTICELL IN NATURE WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING WET MICROBURSTS.

..AZ...

E-W ORIENTED MID-LEVEL SHEAR ZONE OVER NRN MEXICO WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK IMPULSES SLOWLY
TRANSLATING WWD ACROSS THE REGION. ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST OWING TO PRESENCE OF DEEP MOIST PLUME...THOUGH THIS
WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE STEEPNESS OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY. STILL...SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGER STORMS OR STORM MERGERS...NAMELY
AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO LOWER ELEVATION AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

.MEAD/LEVIT.. 07/31/2007

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KPSR [310450]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 310450
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 PM MST MON JUL 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM FLASH FLOOD AGUILA 33.95N 113.17W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

CENTENNIAL WASH FLOWING WITH ONE FOOT OF WATER.

0312 PM FLASH FLOOD 18 NW PHOENIX 33.73N 112.29W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAINFALL RATE OF .57 INCHES IN 15 MINUTES NEAR 35TH
AVENUE/PEORIA. SOME SMALL TREES DOWN.

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD WADDELL 33.59N 112.36W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAINFALL RATE OF .66 INCHES IN 15 MINUTES NW OF
LUKE AFB.

0428 PM FLASH FLOOD GOODYEAR 33.42N 112.40W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ NEWSPAPER

RUSSELL RANCH NEAR CITRUS ROAD/CAMELBACK ROAD. MEDIA
SOURCE REPORTED HEAVY RAINFALL AND STREET FLOODING. SOME
SMALL TREES DOWN.

0453 PM FLASH FLOOD MESA 33.42N 111.74W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAINFALL RATE OF 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR NEAR VAL VISTA
AND UNIVERSITY. MEASURED WIND GUST 45 MPH.

0458 PM FLASH FLOOD TEMPE 33.39N 111.93W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR MCCLINTOCK AND UNIVERSITY. STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
COMPLETELY FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

0505 PM TSTM WND GST MESA 33.42N 111.74W
07/30/2007 E45.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 45+ MPH WIND GUST NEAR GREENFIELD AND HORNE.

0505 PM TSTM WND GST MESA 33.42N 111.74W
07/30/2007 E60.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

ESTIMATED 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR BASELINE AND STAPLEY.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG MESA 33.42N 111.74W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ NEWSPAPER

LARGE BILLBOARD WITH SEVERAL FULL-SIZED TIMBER SUPPORTS
BLOWN DOWN ACROSS RAILROAD TRACKS AT BASELINE ROAD
BETWEEN MESA DRIVE AND COUNTRY CLUB.

0510 PM FLASH FLOOD GILBERT 33.33N 111.76W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL OF .81 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. MEASURED 40+ MPH
WIND GUST.

0510 PM TSTM WND GST MESA 33.42N 111.74W
07/30/2007 E50.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

ESTIMATED 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR
GUADALUPE AND ALMA SCHOOL.

0513 PM FLASH FLOOD MESA 33.42N 111.74W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAINFALL RATE OF 1.88 INCHES PER HOUR. MEASURED .75
INCHES IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES NEAR VAL VISTA AND UNIVERSITY.


0515 PM FLASH FLOOD MESA 33.42N 111.74W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ NEWSPAPER

WATER RESCUE FROM FLOODED UNDERPASS WITH APPROX 2.0 FEET
OF WATER AT COUNTRY CLUB AND BROADWAY ROAD.

0518 PM FLASH FLOOD TEMPE 33.39N 111.93W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR RURAL AND SOUTHERN. MEASURED 2.0
INCHES IN ONE HOUR.

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG MESA 33.42N 111.74W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS AWNINGS BLOWN OFF AND WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE.
WINDS ESTIMATED 50-55+ MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLOODED
STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.

0525 PM FLASH FLOOD MESA 33.42N 111.74W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ NEWSPAPER

FOUR LANES ACROSS US HIGHWAY 60 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0525 PM FLASH FLOOD MESA 33.42N 111.74W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ NEWSPAPER

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1.0 INCH IN 15 MINUTES NEAR BROWN AND
HORNE.

0529 PM FLASH FLOOD MESA 33.42N 111.74W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ OFFICIAL NWS OBS

DOWNTOWN MESA FCDMC GAGE MEASURED 1.69 INCHES IN 45
MINUTES.

0535 PM DUST STORM QUEEN CREEK 33.24N 111.64W
07/30/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

WFO TUCSON RELAYED SPOTTER REPORT OF VISIBILITY UNDER 1/2
MILE IN BLOWING DUST.

0545 PM DUST STORM FLORENCE 33.04N 111.37W
07/30/2007 PINAL AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

PINAL COUNTY SO REPORTED APPROX 50 FEET OF VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING DUST AND RAIN.


&&

$$

MEYERS

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KSLC [310427]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KSLC 310427
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1027 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SE ST. GEORGE 37.06N 113.55W
07/30/2007 WASHINGTON UT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

FORT PIERCE DRY WASH WENT FROM 0 TO 1357 CFS

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN 13 SW GUNLOCK 37.15N 113.95W
07/30/2007 M1.66 INCH WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

BADGER SPRINGS RAWS IN SOUTHWEST UTAH. DRY WASHES RUNNING
IN IVINS.


&&

$$

ATARDY

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KSLC [310426]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KSLC 310426
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1025 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SE ST. GEORGE 37.06N 113.55W
07/30/2007 WASHINGTON UT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

FORT PIERCE DRY WASH WENT FROM 0 TO 1357 CFS

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN 13 SW GUNLOCK 37.15N 113.95W
07/30/2007 M1.66 INCH WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

BAGDER SPRINGS RAWS IN SOUTHWEST UTAH. DRY WASHES RUNNING
IN IVINS.


&&

$$

ATARDY

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KSLC [310420]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 310420
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1020 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN 13 SW GUNLOCK 37.15N 113.95W
07/30/2007 M1.66 INCH WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

BAGDER SPRINGS RAWS IN SOUTHWEST UTAH. DRY WASHES RUNNING
IN IVINS.


&&

$$

ATARDY

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