SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312254
NDZ000-SDZ000-010100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND FAR NORTHERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 312254Z - 010100Z
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/SEVERE HAIL MAY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND FAR NORTHERN
SD. EXPECTED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 1003 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHWEST ND...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SD/MT/WY BORDER REGION. THE AMBIENT
AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE/VERY DEEPLY MIXED ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100 F AND CLOUD
BASES ESTIMATED TO BE WELL ABOVE 10K FT PER MODIFIED 12Z BISMARCK
RAOB AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. AS MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
ND/FAR NORTHERN SD...DEEPLY MIXED/HIGH DCAPE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR
STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. MODEST WINDS
THROUGH THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL
STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GENERALLY 25-30
KT...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW RESIDES NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER.
.GUYER.. 07/31/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
48970185 48840033 48369998 46800025 45780132 45380290
46220340 47700316 48660263
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