Tuesday, October 16, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2085

ACUS11 KWNS 170337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170336
OKZ000-TXZ000-170530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN TX THROUGH WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170336Z - 170530Z

STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND EXPAND NEWD NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. INTENSITY TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S IS RETURNING NWD ALONG A STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET
BENEATH 7.5 C/KM 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ACROSS WRN TX. THIS PROCESS
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AXIS OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE OVER NRN PARTS
OF WRN TX. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PROMOTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND EXPAND
NEWD TOWARD WRN OK OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD
LAYER IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ROTATION...WHICH ALONG
WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR HAIL.
A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND ISSUANCE
OF A WW WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

.DIAL.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

34109927 33130048 33000255 34220270 35860214 36100026
35299906

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170041
SWODY1
SPC AC 170039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF WRN TX
INTO WRN OK...

..WRN TX INTO WRN OK...

REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP DATA SHOW BACKING AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
INTENSIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR THE RAPID NWWD ADVECTION OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ORIGINATING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 17/03-09Z OVER W-CNTRL TX INTO THE
ERN TX PNHDL BEFORE MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO OK BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NM TRANSLATES NEWD AND
ACTS ON DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WHERE MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1000 J/KG. 00Z AMA SOUNDING INDICATES THAT VERTICAL
SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WITH
AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD BEING LARGE
HAIL. SHOULD A STORM OR TWO BECOME ROOTED IN MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO GIVEN THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2 PER S2/.

.MEAD.. 10/17/2007

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KLOX [162246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 162246
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
345 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0301 PM DUST STORM 3 SSW PALMDALE 34.57N 118.11W
10/16/2007 LOS ANGELES CA TRAINED SPOTTER

*** 2 FATAL *** AT S.R. 14 NORTH AT AVENUE B A SEVERE
DUST STORM WITH VISIBILITY OF ZERO MILES WAS REPORTED.
MULTIPLE CAR AND TRUCK COLLISION WITH TWO CONFIRMED
FATALITIES AND MULTIPLE INJURIES. DUST DEPTH ESTIMATED AT
1000 FEET.


&&

$$

MEIER

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KLOX [162245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 162245
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
345 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..


&&

$$

MEIER

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KFWD [162110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected Time...

NWUS54 KFWD 162110 CCA
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
409 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 S KELLER 32.92N 97.23W
10/15/2007 TARRANT TX PUBLIC

LARGE TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN

$$

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KFWD [162013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 162013
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S KELLER 32.92N 97.23W
10/15/2007 TARRANT TX PUBLIC

LARGE TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161935
SWODY1
SPC AC 161932

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS....

..UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES REGION...
AN OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT IS BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR WEAK
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON....AS A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
OVERSPREADS A NARROW TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ORIENTED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN...NEAR A NEW DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. AND...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY STILL EXISTS FOR
SCATTERED ADDITIONAL STORMS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS...ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
WEAK...BUT 25-30 KT MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW FIELDS AND COOL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 20-23Z
TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING THEREAFTER DUE TO
STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS...AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD...IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD UPPER
IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40+ KT CYCLONIC
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ALREADY MODERATELY STRONG. AND...
IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
IF THIS OCCURS...CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION COULD SUPPORT A LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT...WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO AWAIT
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE
ELEVATED IN THE STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION
REGIME FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA. BUT...INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST A CONTINUING RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

.KERR.. 10/16/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161730
SWODY2
SPC AC 161728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED AFTN/EVE ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL/ERN KS AND OK INTO PARTS OF WRN MO/AR....

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT SURROUNDING THE
MDT RISK AREA...ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY....

..SYNOPSIS...
THE NOSE OF A VERY STRONG WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET STREAK OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW OVERSPREADING CALIFORNIA...AND PROGGED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. MUCH OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT...AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIKELY TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A NORTHWARD RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS...WILL PROBABLY
NOT BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS.
BUT...THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...AS A
TROPICAL PERTURBATION NOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ACCELERATES NORTH NORTHEASTWARD...AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS POLAR TROUGH.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE POLAR JET IS
PROGGED EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AND...AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE/JETLET DIGS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.

..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS DOES EXIST FOR
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.

MOISTURE RETURN AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WITH INITIAL IMPULSE ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A RAPID INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS
OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU REGION. MUCH
OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE A LINGERING
COOL/STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING LOW/
MID-LEVEL CYCLONE NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS...MAINLY WHERE STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING
CONTRIBUTES TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS...COULD CONTAIN SOME LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THIS
THREAT MAY DIMINISH AS CONVECTION/CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AND DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY.

THE PROSPECT FOR CONSIDERABLE EARLY CONVECTION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
LOWER SUN ANGLE/SEASONABLY WEAKER DAYTIME HEATING...PROVIDE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT
LATER WEDNESDAY...AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG/JUST EAST OF A DRY LINE EXPECTED TO
CURVE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS
BY 21Z WEDNESDAY. IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH A
MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MIXED LAYER
CAPE WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG UPDRAFTS. COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER NEAR A
90+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/ LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS. AND...LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 40-50+ KT
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. AND... IF
DESTABILIZATION IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY IMPEDED BY EARLIER
CONVECTION...SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT...AGAIN...THIS
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY AND ERN GULF STATES...
UNCERTAINTY ALSO EXISTS...BUT A SEVERE THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY A
LINGERING LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING INLAND OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO
WEAK LAPSE RATES...BUT INLAND ADVECTION OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR
COULD SUPPORT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS.

.KERR.. 10/16/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161605
SWODY1
SPC AC 161603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEAKEN AS A POWERFUL POLAR JET AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS SWRN U.S. AT THE SURFACE OLD FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS LOWER MS VLY/SRN PLAINS WILL REDEVELOP NWD ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS IN PLACE S TX WILL
ACCELERATE NWD THRU SRN INTO CENTRAL HI PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS 40-50KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN TONIGHT.

..ERN WI INTO NRN IND AND WRN OH...
CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA EXPECTED TO THIN AS MID LEVEL
DRYING SPREADS NEWD TO E OF UPPER LOW OVER SRN MN. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
70F. WITH 30-40KT OF SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG IN
AREAS OF GREATEST SURFACE HEATING...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD QUICKLY END AFTER SUNSET GIVEN THE OVERALL MARGINAL SETUP AND
THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.

..SRN PLAINS...
COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX

BENEATH EML PLUME SWEEPING E FROM THE SRN PLATEAU SHOULD LEAD TO
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NW FRINGE OF MOIST AXIS...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING INVOF THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NE ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO
OK TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD.

GIVEN INCREASING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/
WITH STRENGTHENING ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL. AND...GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY AND CHARACTER OF FORCING...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. A LIMITED POTENTIAL
WILL...HOWEVER...EXIST FOR A FEW SFC-OR NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS THAT
MAY POSE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT GIVEN EXPECTED EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
OF 250-350 M2/S2.

.HALES/KIS.. 10/16/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161254
SWODY1
SPC AC 161252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NW TX...

..SYNOPSIS...
NW IA UPR LOW EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES NNE TO WRN LK
SUPERIOR THIS PERIOD...WHILE LEAD IMPULSE IN FAST WNWLY JET ACROSS
THE E PACIFIC SWEEPS RAPIDLY E FROM THE SRN CA CST TO THE SRN HI
PLNS. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IA TROUGH SHOULD FILL AS IT LIFTS N
INTO MN. FRONT TRAILING ESE FROM LOW INTO IL WILL...HOWEVER...
LIKELY RETAIN SOME DEGREE OF IDENTITY AS IT MOVES E/NE INTO PARTS OF
WI/MI AND IND. FARTHER S...SWRN END OF SAME FRONT LIKELY WILL
BECOME INDISTINCT ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AND E TX AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS RESULTS IN WARM FRONTOGENESIS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER W TX.

..LOWER MI INTO IND/OH...
MID/UPR-LVL LVL DRYING WILL SPREAD NNE INTO PARTS OF WI...LWR MI AND
IND TODAY AS IA UPR LOW OPENS INTO A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH. SOMEWHAT
BROADER WARM SECTOR /RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY IN NEB AND IA/ MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME BREAKS IN BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS...AND MODEST SFC HEATING...
ALONG LOW LVL MOISTURE AXIS OVER SE WI/SW LWR MI AND NRN IND.

COUPLED WITH COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -16C AT 500 MB/ AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY UPR LVL VORT LOBE NOW IN IA... SETUP
MAY SUPPORT A BAND OR TWO OF LOW-TOPPED AFTN/EVENING STORMS ALONG
PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED SFC FRONT. WEAK SFC-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE
AROUND 500 J PER KG/ AND 30-35 KT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY SHEAR
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.

..W TX INTO SW OK...
LATEST SATELLITE/SFC/PROFILER AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IA UPR LOW HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP N ACROSS CNTRL AND
W TX THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES IN ERN CO.
40-50 KT SLY LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE
SRN AND CNTRL PLNS THIS EVENING AS CA UPR DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
REGION.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX
BENEATH EML PLUME SWEEPING E FROM THE SRN PLATEAU SHOULD LEAD TO
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NW FRINGE OF MOIST AXIS...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING INVOF THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NE ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO
OK TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD.

GIVEN INCREASING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/
WITH STRENGTHENING ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL. AND...GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY AND CHARACTER OF FORCING...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. A LIMITED POTENTIAL
WILL...HOWEVER...EXIST FOR A FEW SFC- OR NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS THAT
MAY POSE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT GIVEN EXPECTED EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
OF 250-350 M2/S2.

.CORFIDI/GUYER.. 10/16/2007

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KEWX [160840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 160840
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
338 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 N SPEAKS 29.34N 96.72W
10/16/2007 LAVACA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER RESCUE ON FARM ROAD 530


&&

$$

CFM

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160813
SWOD48
SPC AC 160813

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

..DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
DAY 4 /FRI. OCT. 19/ AHEAD OF STRONG/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A MOIST/AT LEAST MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE DAY...EXPECT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC SEABOARD -- FROM NEW ENGLAND TO FL -- THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WIND
FIELD...SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
FIELD...COMING MORE CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF -- AT LEAST
THROUGH DAY 6. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
SHARP/HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENTERING THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY 6 /SUN.
OCT. 21/ -- WHICH IS ALSO NOW DEPICTED BY THE GFS. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AFTER DAY 6...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO
INTRODUCE AN OUTLOOK AREA OVER PARTS OF KS/OK/TX AND VICINITY DAY 6
AS MOISTURE RETURN NWD INTO THE PLAINS BENEATH VERY STRONG SWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER-END SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT.

.GOSS.. 10/16/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160738
SWODY3
SPC AC 160736

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF IL AND
INDIANA...SERN WI...SRN LOWER MI...AND PARTS OF WRN KY....

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CONUS BETWEEN THE MS VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS...

..SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AND TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY-NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME.
MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM IA INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AND SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
THROUGH 19/12Z.

..ERN CONUS ROUGHLY FROM THE MS VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EVIDENT
FOR DAY 3...AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY
LARGE WARM SECTOR IS ANTICIPATED...WHICH COMBINED WITH SOME DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL TO LOCALLY-MODERATE INSTABILITY.


ATOP THE MOIST/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY STRONG DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL ZONE
INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WITH 60 TO 80 SSWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS
FORECAST ATOP THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EXPECTED IN MULTIPLE BANDS CLUSTERS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FLOW
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR
NUMEROUS/PRIMARILY DISCRETE STORMS...STORM MODE IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SOME COMBINATION OF
ISOLATED AND LINEAR STORMS WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE AFTERNOON --
LIKELY PRODUCING HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AS SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGLY-SUPPORTIVE OF LONG-LIVED/WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS. DEGREE OF
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO SUPPORTS A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE A MODERATE RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST...WHICH MAY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE AREAS AS FAR S AS THE
GULF COAST STATES IN LATER FORECASTS.

THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PERHAPS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE.

.GOSS.. 10/16/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160600
SWODY2
SPC AC 160559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
KS...WRN MO...CENTRAL AND ERN OK...NWRN AR...AND PARTS OF N TX...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION....

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE/NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE WRN 2/3
OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE MOVING ENEWD FROM
WRN KS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. A SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING S FROM
THIS LOW SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...WHILE A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS/SHIFTS EWD ACROSS KS AND SEWD
ACROSS OK AND THE NWRN HALF OF TX THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

..PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING TORNADOES -- IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
PERIOD -- CENTERED OVER PARTS OF KS AND OK.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH
AREAS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF DESTABILIZATION...WITH
500 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE LOCALLY EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OR
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS THE SHARPENING DRYLINE
MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL KS/ACROSS WRN OK SHOULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN ROUGHLY N-S DRYLINE AND DISTINCT WLY
COMPONENT TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS OK/N
TX...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

VERY STRONG WIND FIELD IS FORECAST...AS 50 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ATOP STRONG SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW.
RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT INITIATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD
RAPIDLY ACQUIRE ROTATION...WITH SEVERAL SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS
LIKELY. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS...LOW LCLS/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
VEERING/SHEAR SUGGEST THAT MULTIPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW OF THESE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG AND RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD ACROSS MO/AR AND PERHAPS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
STRONG MIXING...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION MAY BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A
TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION
SPREADS EWD.

.GOSS.. 10/16/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160557
SWODY1
SPC AC 160554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

A DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD
AS INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ORIGINATING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC
DIGS SEWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING HEIGHT
FALLS/TROUGHING FROM THE WRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EWD INTO THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE ARCING FROM OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW
OVER SWRN MN EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THEN INTO THE OH
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY IN CONCERT WITH DE-AMPLIFYING
UPPER SYSTEM. FARTHER TO THE W...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR OVER ERN CO WITH LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NWD THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS...NAMELY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..LOWER MI INTO IND/OH...

COLLOCATION OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
/DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 F/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACTS ON DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
EXIST ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

..WRN TX INTO WRN OK...

40-50 KT LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS TO THE W.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID FLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD THROUGH
THE REGION...AND BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BEING ADVECTED EWD FROM THE ROCKIES. THESE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG WRN EDGE OF LLJ AXIS OVER WRN TX WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN OK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A STORM OR TWO MAY BE SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR
SURFACE-BASED WITH A BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH
VALUES OF 250-350 M2/S2.

SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT THAT STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...PORTIONS OF AREA MAY NEEDED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

.MEAD/GUYER.. 10/16/2007

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