SWODY2
SPC AC 160559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
KS...WRN MO...CENTRAL AND ERN OK...NWRN AR...AND PARTS OF N TX...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION....
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE/NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE WRN 2/3
OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE MOVING ENEWD FROM
WRN KS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. A SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING S FROM
THIS LOW SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...WHILE A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS/SHIFTS EWD ACROSS KS AND SEWD
ACROSS OK AND THE NWRN HALF OF TX THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.
..PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING TORNADOES -- IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
PERIOD -- CENTERED OVER PARTS OF KS AND OK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH
AREAS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF DESTABILIZATION...WITH
500 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE LOCALLY EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OR
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS THE SHARPENING DRYLINE
MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL KS/ACROSS WRN OK SHOULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN ROUGHLY N-S DRYLINE AND DISTINCT WLY
COMPONENT TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS OK/N
TX...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
VERY STRONG WIND FIELD IS FORECAST...AS 50 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ATOP STRONG SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW.
RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT INITIATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD
RAPIDLY ACQUIRE ROTATION...WITH SEVERAL SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS
LIKELY. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS...LOW LCLS/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
VEERING/SHEAR SUGGEST THAT MULTIPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW OF THESE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG AND RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED.
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD ACROSS MO/AR AND PERHAPS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
STRONG MIXING...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION MAY BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A
TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION
SPREADS EWD.
.GOSS.. 10/16/2007
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