DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220052
SWODY1
SPC AC 220049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST WED JAN 21 2009

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA...

EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
UPPER VORT/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ROUGHLY NEAR 26N/121W...LIFTING NNEWD
TOWARD THE SRN CA COAST/NRN BAJA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE ASCENT/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7 C/KM...CONTINUED MID LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 650-750MB. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM NKX SUPPORTS THIS WITH MUCAPE OF 165 J/KG...JUST
ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

..DARROW.. 01/22/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211921
SWODY1
SPC AC 211918

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CST WED JAN 21 2009

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA...

MORNING RAOB FROM SAN DIEGO SAMPLED THE ATMOSPHERE WITHIN THE PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND INDICATED 6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MOIST LAYERS BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING IMPULSES IN ADVANCE OF THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SCATTERED ELEVATED
CONVECTION ABOVE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAK CAPE WITH 200 J/KG IN
THE 700-400 MB LAYER MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THIS MID LEVEL CONVECTION...BUT LIGHTNING COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.

..DIAL.. 01/21/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211701
SWODY2
SPC AC 211658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST WED JAN 21 2009

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE CURRENT PATTERN CONSISTING OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
U.S. WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A
MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE REGIME BY THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN PACIFIC WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT UNDERCUTS UPPER RIDGE AND MOVES
THROUGH CA AND INTO THE SWRN STATES.

...SRN CA THROUGH SRN AZ...

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN GRADIENT ZONE BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST AND
RETREATING UPPER RIDGE. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NWD WITHIN THIS REGIME IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY. OWING TO LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CONFINED TO MAINLY TO THE 700-400 MB LAYER
WHERE MODEST 6.5-7 C/KM LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. MID LEVEL ASCENT
RESULTING FROM THE NEWD EJECTING IMPULSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS
OF MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE AZ. HOWEVER...THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN AOB 10% COVERAGE.

OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN CA AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN AZ WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX
EMBEDDED WITHIN BASE OF PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. WEAK BUOYANCY IN THE
700-400 MB LAYER SHOULD LIMIT LIGHTNING COVERAGE TO AOB 10%.

..DIAL.. 01/21/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211624
SWODY1
SPC AC 211621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST WED JAN 21 2009

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA/AZ AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NEAR 28 N AND 125 W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY ENEWD TOWARD SRN CA/NRN BAJA THROUGH TOMORROW. REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS ACROSS CA/AZ SHOW PRELIMINARY MOISTENING AROUND 700 MB AND
POTENTIALLY VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE 700-400 MB LAYER DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS ERN PAC TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BASED IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED BY AT BEST WEAK ASCENT
AND LITTLE IMMEDIATE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SRN CA COAST WILL
INCREASE SOME VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD /BY 09-12Z/ AS A PLUME OF
RICHER PW VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES OVERSPREADS SRN CA AND RESULTS IN
SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY BASED CLOSER TO THE GROUND.

..THOMPSON.. 01/21/2009

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KCHS [211453]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 211453
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
952 AM EST WED JAN 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM SNOW JAMESTOWN 33.29N 79.69W
01/20/2009 E0.0 INCH BERKELEY SC CO-OP OBSERVER

OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. NO ACCUMULATION.

&&

$$

33

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211243
SWODY1
SPC AC 211239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST WED JAN 21 2009

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DRY/STABLE PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF
THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WRN U.S. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
AND SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST. MOIST SSWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL CONTINUE
OVERSPREADING THE WEST COAST...AND SUPPORT MOIST CONVECTION FROM WRN
ORE INTO SRN CA. WEAK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SRN CA COAST AND PERHAPS SUPPORT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..EVANS.. 01/21/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210757
SWOD48
SPC AC 210757

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CST WED JAN 21 2009

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM FCST THROUGHOUT
PERIOD...AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIG ACROSS NERN PACIFIC OFFSHORE CA
THEN EJECT INLAND. FIRST OF THESE PERTURBATIONS -- DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS -- SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE RAPIDLY
EWD ACROSS SERN CONUS DAY-4/24TH-25TH WITH INSUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SVR EVENT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY SPECTRAL...ECMWF AND ABOUT HALF OF MREF MEMBERS
TO EJECT EWD ACROSS GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES DURING DAY
7-8/27TH-29TH TIME FRAME...WITH STG CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. TREMENDOUS DISPARITIES IN PROGGED
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...AND OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MASS
FIELD/THERMODYNAMIC RESPONSE...PRECLUDE SVR OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 01/21/2009

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