SWOD48
SPC AC 210757
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CST WED JAN 21 2009
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM FCST THROUGHOUT
PERIOD...AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIG ACROSS NERN PACIFIC OFFSHORE CA
THEN EJECT INLAND. FIRST OF THESE PERTURBATIONS -- DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS -- SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE RAPIDLY
EWD ACROSS SERN CONUS DAY-4/24TH-25TH WITH INSUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SVR EVENT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY SPECTRAL...ECMWF AND ABOUT HALF OF MREF MEMBERS
TO EJECT EWD ACROSS GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES DURING DAY
7-8/27TH-29TH TIME FRAME...WITH STG CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. TREMENDOUS DISPARITIES IN PROGGED
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...AND OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MASS
FIELD/THERMODYNAMIC RESPONSE...PRECLUDE SVR OUTLOOK ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 01/21/2009
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