KSGF [211343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211343
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
743 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0742 AM FREEZING RAIN 4 NE PROTEM 36.57N 92.81W
02/21/2008 E0.10 INCH TANEY MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

JLT

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KSGF [211342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211342
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
742 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HAIL JOPLIN 37.08N 94.51W
02/21/2008 E0.25 INCH JASPER MO BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

HATCH

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KLSX [211342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 211342
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
741 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SLEET FREDERICKTOWN 37.56N 90.30W
02/21/2008 M0.10 INCH MADISON MO CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

KARLZ

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KSGF [211338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211338
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
738 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 AM FREEZING RAIN 3 SW ROLLA 37.92N 91.81W
02/21/2008 E0.00 INCH PHELPS MO OTHER FEDERAL

PORTION OF INTERSTATE 44 CLOSED DUE TO ICE RELATED
ACCIDENT. THREE TRACTOR TRAILERS REPORTED OVER TURNED.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KLSX [211331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLSX 211331
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
731 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SLEET JEFFERSON CITY 38.57N 92.19W
02/21/2008 M0.20 INCH COLE MO CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SLEET ST. LIBORY 38.36N 89.71W
02/21/2008 M0.00 INCH ST. CLAIR IL CO-OP OBSERVER

SLEET COVERING THE GROUND.

0719 AM SLEET WASHINGTON 38.55N 91.01W
02/21/2008 M0.00 INCH FRANKLIN MO TRAINED SPOTTER

SLEET COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

$$

KARLZ

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KSGF [211326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211326
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
726 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 AM SLEET 4 W PITTSBURG 37.83N 93.37W
02/21/2008 E0.25 INCH HICKORY MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

JLT

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KABQ [211326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 211326
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
626 AM MST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0529 AM SNOW 11 S SANTA FE 35.52N 105.95W
02/21/2008 E1.0 INCH SANTA FE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0538 AM SNOW SANTA FE 35.68N 105.95W
02/21/2008 E1.0 INCH SANTA FE NM DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROADS ICY AND BECOMING SNOW PACKED.

&&

$$

SHY

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KSGF [211322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211322
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
722 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0721 AM SLEET 2 NW CABOOL 37.14N 92.13W
02/21/2008 E0.30 INCH TEXAS MO PUBLIC

SLEET ON TOP OF A GLAZE OF ICE.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KICT [211320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 211320
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
720 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0718 AM SLEET HOWARD 37.47N 96.26W
02/21/2008 E1.00 INCH ELK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE INCE ICE ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND ICE PELLETS.

&&

$$

JMB

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KSGF [211319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211319
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
719 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0656 AM SLEET 6 NE WILLARD 37.37N 93.35W
02/21/2008 M0.20 INCH GREENE MO NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [211319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211319
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
719 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0712 AM SLEET 6 NE WILLARD 37.37N 93.35W
02/21/2008 M0.20 INCH GREENE MO NWS EMPLOYEE

0.2 INCHES OF SLEET ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF A LIGHT GLAZE
OF FREEZING RAIN.

&&

$$

ANGLE

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KSGF [211311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211311
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
711 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 AM FREEZING RAIN 7 W COLUMBUS 37.17N 94.97W
02/21/2008 E0.10 INCH CHEROKEE KS EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

ANGLE

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KLSX [211309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 211309
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
708 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 AM SNOW FOSTERBURG 38.97N 90.07W
02/21/2008 M0.0 INCH MADISON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

MIXTURE OR SNOW AND SLEET, ROADS BECOMING SLICK.

0657 AM SLEET ROSEBUD 38.39N 91.40W
02/21/2008 M0.20 INCH GASCONADE MO CO-OP OBSERVER

BEGAN AS FREEZING RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING

0700 AM SNOW UNIVERSITY CITY 38.67N 90.33W
02/21/2008 M0.1 INCH ST. LOUIS MO CO-OP OBSERVER

MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET

&&

$$

KARLZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211302
SWODY1
SPC AC 211300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF CST
REGION...

..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
FRIDAY. TWO DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM.../1/ THE MAIN TROUGH
NOW ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER AND.../2/ SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE NOW NEARING
THE TX BIG BEND...WILL BE DOMINANT FEATURES AFFECTING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND THE GULF CST REGION
THIS PERIOD.

THE LWR LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COMPLEX. SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE NOSING S/SSE ACROSS NW AND CNTRL TX TODAY...WHILE
ERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FROM E
CNTRL TX INTO NRN LA/MS. RESULTING INFLECTION POINT OVER E CNTRL TX
LIKELY WILL BE THE SEAT OF DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE...WITH THE
WAVE TRACKING ENE INTO NRN MS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. S OF THE
WAVE... A DRY LINE/WIND SHIFT LINE WILL MOVE E ACROSS S CNTRL/ SE
TX. FARTHER E/SE...DEVELOPMENT OF WAVE AND CONTINUED EWD
PROGRESSION OF UPR TROUGHS SHOULD ALLOW MARITIME WARM FRONT NOW IN
THE NWRN GULF TO LIFT NE INTO LA TODAY...AND INTO MS/SRN AL AND THE
FL PANHANDLE EARLY FRIDAY.

..WRN/CNTRL GULF CST REGION...
SCTD AREAS/BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FROM E TX NWD AND EWD INTO ERN OK...SE KS...SRN
MO...AR AND MS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY GRADUALLY
INCREASING WAA DOWNSTREAM FROM AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROUGHS AND MAY
YIELD ISOLATED/PERIODIC HAIL. WITH POCKETS OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG...ESPECIALLY OVER E TX/LA AND AR...AND WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS...SOME OF THE HAIL COULD EXCEED SVR
LIMITS.

A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD/SUSTAINED SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING OVER SE TX AND LA...SPREADING INTO PARTS OF
MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. COMBINATION
OF INCREASING UVV DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR
DISTURBANCES...COUPLED WITH MODEST SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED
MOISTURE INFLOW...MAY YIELD STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF AFOREMENTIONED
SFC WAVE AND SWD ALONG ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT LINE OVER E CNTRL...
SE AND POSSIBLY S CNTRL TX. THE DOMINANT SVR THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND AS THEY MERGE INTO BROKEN
LINES AND/OR SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS.

OTHER STRONG TO SVR STORMS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N
OF WARM/MARITIME FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE LA GULF CST. EXPECTED
VEERING OF LLJ OVER THE WRN/CNTRL GULF CST REGION LATER TODAY/
TONIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE LOW-LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS
REGION RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER W. THIS MAY SUPPORT AN ENHANCED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SVR WIND/HAIL AS SFC DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 60S...YIELDING SBCAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG.
THIS SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EWD
INTO PARTS OF MS/AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AS MARITIME FRONT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD.

.CORFIDI.. 02/21/2008

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KEAX [211302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 211302
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
702 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0702 AM SLEET BOONVILLE 38.96N 92.75W
02/21/2008 E0.30 INCH COOPER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF SLEET REPORTED.

&&

$$

GAMIS

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KSGF [211301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211301
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SLEET 4 NE WHITE CHURCH 36.89N 91.73W
02/21/2008 M0.30 INCH HOWELL MO PUBLIC

SLEET AND SNOW MIXED.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [211258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211258
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0657 AM SLEET SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.29W
02/21/2008 M0.10 INCH GREENE MO OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [211257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211257
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
656 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0656 AM SLEET 6 W EDWARDS 38.14N 93.28W
02/21/2008 E0.50 INCH BENTON MO PUBLIC

MIXED WITH SOME SNOW.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KICT [211256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 211256
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
655 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 AM SLEET CONWAY SPRINGS 37.39N 97.64W
02/21/2008 E1.00 INCH SUMNER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ESTIMATED ONE INCH ACCUMULATIONS

0630 AM SLEET EL DORADO 37.82N 96.86W
02/21/2008 E0.50 INCH BUTLER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ESTIMATED ONE HALF INCH SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS

0632 AM SLEET WINFIELD 37.27N 96.97W
02/21/2008 E3.00 INCH COWLEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ESTIMATED THREE INCHES OF SLEET ACCUMULATION. MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH ICE PELLETS AND SOME FREEZING RAIN.

0635 AM SLEET EUREKA 37.82N 96.29W
02/21/2008 U0.00 INCH GREENWOOD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREETS COMPLETELY ICE AND SLEET COVERED.

0637 AM SLEET HOWARD 37.47N 96.26W
02/21/2008 U0.00 INCH ELK KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

GROUND IS COVERED IN SLEET.

0638 AM SLEET SEDAN 37.13N 96.18W
02/21/2008 E1.00 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN
OCCURING.

0638 AM SLEET YATES CENTER 37.87N 95.74W
02/21/2008 U0.00 INCH WOODSON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.

0639 AM SLEET FREDONIA 37.53N 95.82W
02/21/2008 U0.00 INCH WILSON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURING.

0641 AM SLEET INDEPENDENCE 37.23N 95.71W
02/21/2008 E1.50 INCH MONTGOMERY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

1.5 INCHES OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLET
ACCUMULATION.

&&

$$

JMB

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KLSX [211255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 211255
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
655 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 AM SLEET STEELVILLE 37.97N 91.36W
02/21/2008 M0.30 INCH CRAWFORD MO TRAINED SPOTTER

SLEET CONTINUES

0645 AM FREEZING RAIN BALLWIN 38.59N 90.55W
02/21/2008 M0.00 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER

LIGHT GLAZE

0648 AM FREEZING RAIN BELLEVILLE 38.53N 90.00W
02/21/2008 M0.00 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER

MIXTURE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. ICE
ACCUMULATION T, SLEET ACCUMULATION 0.10

&&

$$

KARLZ

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KTOP [211252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 211252
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
652 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0651 AM SLEET BURLINGTON 38.19N 95.74W
02/21/2008 E0.50 INCH COFFEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ESTIMATED 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET

&&

$$

BYRNE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0277

ACUS11 KWNS 211248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211247
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-211345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 69...

VALID 211247Z - 211345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 69 CONTINUES.

PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS OF SERN LA...WITH THIS THREAT POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING WWD
ACROSS SWRN LA AS THE MARINE BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING.

12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INDICATED THE MARINE BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NWD...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO SLY AT BUOY 42035...LOCATED 25 ESE GLS. THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS EWD FROM FAR NWRN GULF TO NEAR OR THROUGH FAR SRN
TERREBONNE/LAFOURCHE PARISHES AND THEN ESEWD TO THE S OF BVE AND
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL/NERN GULF. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1200 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF WW 69 AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /50+ KT/ SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. ALTHOUGH LCH/LIX 12Z
SOUNDINGS INDICATED A LOW LEVEL INVERSION...STORMS FARTHER S OVER
SRN TERREBONNE/LAFOURCHE PARISHES ARE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND THUS HAVE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD TO PRODUCE A TORNADO...GIVEN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.

.PETERS.. 02/21/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...HGX...

29239431 30129440 30429347 30329091 30178954 30398881
30308836 29778832 28578882 28548964 28799136

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KLOT [211248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 211248
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
647 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0646 AM SNOW CHESTERTON 41.60N 87.06W
02/21/2008 M1.5 INCH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT, STORM TOTAL 11.5

&&

$$

CMOTT

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KLSX [211248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 211248
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
648 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SLEET WELDON SPRING 38.72N 90.65W
02/21/2008 M0.20 INCH ST. CHARLES MO NWS EMPLOYEE

0639 AM SLEET COLUMBIA 38.95N 92.33W
02/21/2008 M0.30 INCH BOONE MO BROADCAST MEDIA

PRIMARILY SLEET ACCUMULATION, THERE WAS SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW EARLIER.

0642 AM SNOW OLD MONROE 38.93N 90.75W
02/21/2008 M0.0 INCH LINCOLN MO CO-OP OBSERVER

0642 AM SLEET S COLUMBIA 38.95N 92.33W
02/21/2008 M0.30 INCH BOONE MO BROADCAST MEDIA

ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN COLUMBIA AND THE REGIONAL AIRPORT

&&

$$

KARLZ

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KLCH [211248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 211248
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 25 S BURNS POINT 29.21N 91.60W
02/21/2008 E50 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC

REPORTED BY PLATFORM EUGENE ISLAND 53.

&&

$$

SNAVELY

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KICT [211241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 211241
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 AM SLEET CANEY 37.01N 95.93W
02/21/2008 E0.20 INCH MONTGOMERY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

THERE IS ALSO ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.
SLEET MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN
CANEY.

&&

$$

ADK

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KLSX [211236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 211236
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
635 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM SNOW 2 WSW COTTLEVILLE 38.74N 90.69W
02/21/2008 M0.5 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM SLEET 4 SE BELLEVIEW 37.64N 90.70W
02/21/2008 M0.20 INCH IRON MO CO-OP OBSERVER

SLEET CONTINUES

0600 AM FREEZING RAIN ARCADIA 37.59N 90.63W
02/21/2008 M0.00 INCH IRON MO CO-OP OBSERVER

THIN LAYER OF ICE AND SLEET ON THE GROUND AND TREES

&&

$$

KARLZ

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KEAX [211218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 211218
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0616 AM FREEZING RAIN 7 SE PARKER 38.26N 94.90W
02/21/2008 E0.00 INCH LINN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

OCCASIONAL FREEZING RAIN MIXED AT TIMES WITH SOME SLEET.
SEVERAL ACCIDENTS OBSERVED.

&&

$$

GAMIS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0276

ACUS11 KWNS 211216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211215
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-211815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN OK...SERN KS...SRN MO/NRN AR...SRN
IL/SRN IN...MUCH OF KY AND NWRN TN

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 211215Z - 211815Z

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM NERN OK/SERN KS INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH 18Z. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES UP TO
0.25 WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...WITH AVERAGE HRLY
RATES LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES.

A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL/NRN
OK...SERN KS EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE WAA
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. A SHALLOW
SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS BENEATH A LARGE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SLEET THE PRIMARY P-TYPE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
KY/SRN IND AND FREEZING RAIN THE MOST COMMON P-TYPE ELSEWHERE. STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WERE SUPPORTING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY /PER THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING/ AND A CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF MO/SERN KS AND NRN/ERN OK.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HRLY RATES UP TO
0.25 INCHES...LEADING TO ISOLATED AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT ICING THROUGH
18Z. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR THE ISOLATED AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
ICING WILL BE FROM SERN KS/FAR NERN OK ACROSS SRN MO/FAR NRN AR AND
INTO SWRN KY THROUGH 18Z AHEAD OF A LARGE SWATH OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK AND SERN KS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH VEERING FLOW IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER
/NOTED RECENTLY BY THE VCI PROFILER AND FDR VWP/ AIDING IN
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THIS LAYER. HOWEVER...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS.

.CROSBIE.. 02/21/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

38279584 37279771 36419767 35239745 34999693 35709370
35839142 36018975 36258768 36578474 38098361 38678495
38628689 38279202

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KPAH [211216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 211216
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
616 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 AM ICE STORM DUDLEY 36.79N 90.09W
02/21/2008 STODDARD MO TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE ON GROUND IN DEXTER
AND DUDLEY MISSOURI.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KSGF [211210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211210
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0609 AM HAIL JOPLIN 37.08N 94.51W
02/21/2008 E0.50 INCH JASPER MO PUBLIC

MIXED WITH SLEET.

0610 AM HAIL JOPLIN 37.08N 94.51W
02/21/2008 E0.25 INCH JASPER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

HATCH

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KICT [211147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 211147
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
547 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 AM SLEET WELLINGTON 37.27N 97.40W
02/21/2008 E1.00 INCH SUMNER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SLEET COVERED THE GROUND.

0544 AM SLEET WINFIELD 37.27N 96.97W
02/21/2008 E1.00 INCH COWLEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SLEET COVERED THE GROUND. ROADS VERY SLICK.

&&

$$

BDK

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KPAH [211132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 211132
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
532 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0521 AM ICE STORM JACKSON 37.38N 89.65W
02/21/2008 CAPE GIRARDEAU MO TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IN THE PAST 1.5 HOURS. ICE ON
TREES AND POWER LINES...ROADS SLUSHY AND ICY. NO

SLEET...ALL FREEZING RAIN AT A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KSGF [211130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211130
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
530 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0529 AM SLEET CROSS TIMBERS 38.02N 93.23W
02/21/2008 E0.50 INCH HICKORY MO BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KTSA [211125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 211125
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
525 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 AM FREEZING RAIN PAWHUSKA 36.67N 96.34W
02/21/2008 E0.00 INCH OSAGE OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

ICE ACCUMULATING ON ROADS...BECOMING SLICK ESPECIALY WEST
AND NORTH OF PAWHUSKA

&&

$$

MEB

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KTSA [211124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 211124
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
524 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM FREEZING RAIN NOWATA 36.70N 95.64W
02/21/2008 E0.00 INCH NOWATA OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN

&&

$$

MEB

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KICT [211114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 211114
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
513 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 AM SLEET WEST WICHITA 37.69N 97.46W
02/21/2008 E0.10 INCH SEDGWICK KS OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SLEET WITH THUNDERSTORM. SLEET COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

$$

BDK

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KSGF [211058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 211058
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
458 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 AM SLEET NEVADA 37.84N 94.35W
02/21/2008 E0.50 INCH VERNON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES OF SLEET ON THE GROUND.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KTSA [211055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 211055
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 AM FREEZING RAIN BRISTOW 35.83N 96.39W
02/21/2008 E0.00 INCH CREEK OK BROADCAST MEDIA

BRIDGES REPORTED BECOMING SLICK AND DANGEROUS

&&

$$

MEB

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KTSA [211054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 211054
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
454 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 AM HEAVY SLEET 2 S BARTLESVILLE 36.72N 95.98W
02/21/2008 E0.00 INCH WASHINGTON OK BROADCAST MEDIA

SLEET OR SMALL HAIL COVERING GROUND HIGHWAY 75 SOUTH OF
BARTLESVILLE

&&

$$

MEB

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KICT [211052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 211052
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
452 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0451 AM SLEET ARKANSAS CITY 37.07N 97.04W
02/21/2008 E0.50 INCH COWLEY KS EMERGENCY MNGR

SLEET WITH THUNDERSTORM. SLEET COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

$$

BDK

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 211005
SWOD48
SPC AC 211004

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

..DISCUSSION...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE DAY 4-8 RANGE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER FLOW WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH ABOUT DAY 5 THEN BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A
MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST
AND A RIDGE IN THE WEST BY DAY 7. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE DAY 5
INTO DAY 6...SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS APPEAR LOW. MAIN UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE DAY 5 THROUGH DAY 6 TIME FRAME IS DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR A SMALL UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR TO ADVANCE INTO SRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6 AS A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...SPEED OF
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND FORECAST WSWLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET SUGGEST DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN MIGHT BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN AND WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A SEVERE
RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A RISK AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS ONCE THESE CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.

.DIAL.. 02/21/2008

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KLSX [210937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 210937
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0326 AM FREEZING RAIN VIBURNUM 37.72N 91.13W
02/21/2008 E0.25 INCH IRON MO TRAINED SPOTTER

AMBULANCE PERSONNEL REPORTED ICE COVERED ROADS WITH 1/4
INCH ICE ACCUMULATION.

&&

$$

BRITT

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 69

WWUS20 KWNS 210930
SEL9
SPC WW 210930
LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-211700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 69
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 325 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BOOTHVILLE
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED TSTMS/SUPERCELLS FORMING ALONG WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ESE OVER THE NWRN GULF FROM JUST S OF BPT EXPECTED
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WAA SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SRN RCKYS TROUGH. WARM
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
A GRADUAL NEWD SHIFT OF SVR THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND FIELD/MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGESTS A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG
WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AS DEEP WSWLY SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 50
KTS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0275

ACUS11 KWNS 210851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210851
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-210915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TX INTO CENTRAL/NRN LA AND FAR SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 210851Z - 210915Z

TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
ERN TX INTO CENTRAL/NRN LA AND SRN AR.

WW IS POSSIBLE.

REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF E TX SINCE
0730Z FROM 40 W LFK EWD INTO CENTRAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN INCREASING WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING
SLY LLJ INTO E TX/LA AND ALONG ERN EXTENT OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM. ADDITIONAL ASCENT IS
EXPECTED AS EXIT REGION OF 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATES INTO
THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCAPE VALUES AOA 500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...SOME WITH
ROTATION...SUGGESTING AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MS WSWWD
INTO NRN LA TO A SURFACE WAVE IN NORTH CENTRAL TX MAY HAVE AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES..GIVEN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY ALONG AXIS OF LLJ.

.PETERS.. 02/21/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

31079205 30909358 30879485 31219591 32099584 32979538
33419466 33309349 33199195 32319172

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210821
SWODY3
SPC AC 210819

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO DAY 3. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL AFFECT THE ERN U.S. DAY 2 WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AND
MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE GULF WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

..FL...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL
FL PENINSULA ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR WILL
PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF ERN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROBABLY SERVE
TO WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE STORMS.

.DIAL.. 02/21/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0274

ACUS11 KWNS 210748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210748
LAZ000-TXZ000-210845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 210748Z - 210845Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN LA BY 0830Z.

THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW IN 1-2 HOURS AS THE
MARINE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN LA
COASTAL REGION...GIVEN INCREASING WAA. ONCE SURFACE-BASED STORMS
BECOME MORE LIKELY...THEN AN ATTENDANT TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A FEW STRONGER TSTMS LOCATED 15-30 MILES
SSW OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LA COAST...WITH THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
ALONG/JUST N OF MARINE BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NWRN
GULF ESEWD TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THIS MARINE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NWD EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAK N OF THIS BOUNDARY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-45 KT INTO SRN LA WILL AID IN MAINTAINING STRONGER ECHOES/
UPDRAFTS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS...SUCH AS THE ONE LOCATED 10 MILES
FROM THE COAST OR 60 SW HUM...MAY POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL
ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN LA.

.PETERS.. 02/21/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

29339400 30199377 30049142 29778981 29418898 28678898
28648988 28859124 28999238

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210702
SWODY2
SPC AC 210700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COASTAL STATES INTO NRN FL...

..SYNOPSIS...

OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT SWRN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
ENEWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...SHEAR NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT
TRIES TO PHASE WITH NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. A STRONG 80 KT MID
LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE.
WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE TN VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY WILL
DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...WHILE SECONDARY WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE NC COAST. AS THE INITIAL
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NEWD...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE
SERN U.S. AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM NEAR THE CAROLINA COASTAL REGIONS
SWWD THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. COASTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LIFT INLAND INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COASTAL STATES.

..SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES THROUGH NRN FL...

NWD ADVANCE OF MOIST WARM SECTOR MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE COOL
AIR IN PLACE LEFTOVER FROM RETREATING OH VALLEY SURFACE RIDGE AND
TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET TO VEER AND SHIFT EWD WITH TIME.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES. WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY ADVECT STEEPER 6-6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER A PORTION
OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH TIME...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY TO AOB 1200 J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY FROM THE MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE
TN VALLEY. ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS FARTHER SW OVER SRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE BASED TO SUPPORT AN ONGOING
SEVERE THREAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO VEER AND SHIFT EWD
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS ENEWD.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR OVER SRN PARTS OF THE
GULF COASTAL STATES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME ALONG THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. THE STRONG 80
KT MID LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP SHEAR OF 60+ KT.
HOWEVER...TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET TO VEER WITH TIME SUGGESTS
WIND PROFILES IN WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL.
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING
WIND EXPECTED THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.
ANY TORNADO THREAT APPEARS CONDITIONAL UPON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR.

.DIAL.. 02/21/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0273

ACUS11 KWNS 210622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210622
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-211215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN...NRN/CENTRAL OK...SERN KS...SRN MO/NRN
AR...FAR SRN IL...FAR WRN KY/TN

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 210622Z - 211215Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 12Z. HRLY
ACCUMULATION RATES UP TO 0.25 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS.

LATEST IR SAT/VWP AND PROFILER DATA ALL CONFIRM THE EXISTENCE OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA OVER NRN AR/SRN MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET /25-30 KTS/. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
PRECIP DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE. A SECONDARY BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET EXISTS OVER WRN TX CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
AZ. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER ABOVE A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS. AN
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 750 MB /NOTED ON THE OUN...AMA AND DDC
SOUNDINGS/ WAS LIMITING PRECIPITATION SO FAR OVER MUCH OF OK GIVEN
THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER /BENEATH 850 MB/. HOWEVER...FURTHER EAST
THIS INVERSION WAS NON-EXISTENT PER THE 00Z SGF/LZK SOUNDINGS.
STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET
LOCATED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO BE RELEASED OVER
ERN PORTIONS OF THE MD AREA /SRN MO...NRN AR AND FAR WRN TN/KY AND
SRN IL/ THROUGH 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THIS REGION DEVELOPING THROUGH 12Z...WITH HRLY PRECIPITATION
RATES OVER 0.25 INCH IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. DESPITE INITIAL PTYPE OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE OVER NRN
AR/SRN MO WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE. FURTHER NE OVER FAR WRN TN/KY AND SRN IL...THE
MORE LIMITED DEPTH OF THIS ELEVATED WARM LAYER THROUGH 12Z SHOULD
KEEP A P-TYPE OF SLEET.

FURTHER WEST...THE PROFILER FROM JAYTON INDICATES A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET /AROUND 30 KTS/...WITH BACKING FLOW NOTED AT 1 KM OVER
WRN OK /PER THE VICI PROFILER/. RECENT RUC DATA INDICATES THAT THIS
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN OK THROUGH 09Z AND INTO
CENTRAL OK BY 12Z. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A WEAKENING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 750 MB. THE PRESENT SFC
FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM TUL TO OKC TO LTS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OR ONLY MOVE SLOWLY SWD GIVEN EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CAA. NORTH OF THIS AXIS...FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS AFTER 09Z. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS 12Z OVER
CENTRAL/NERN OK AND SERN KS IF THE WEAKENING OF THE INVERSION IS
SUFFICIENT TO RELEASE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HRLY FREEZING RAIN RATES LESS THAN 0.02 IN/HR.

.CROSBIE.. 02/21/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

38389490 37419832 36129955 34739942 34539863 34949719
35659619 35949473 35579388 34689248 34879085 35208933
37808859 38138980 38389202

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210559
SWODY1
SPC AC 210556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST WED FEB 20 2008

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES...

..SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS...ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITHIN THESE WESTERLIES...SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY TROUGH SKIRTS THE PACIFIC WEST COAST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

WITH HEIGHT FALLS ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH...GULF MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE TX MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. MID 60S F
DEWPOINTS ARE AS FAR NORTH AS EAST CENTRAL TX LATE THIS
EVENING...SOUTH OF A SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT ANGLING FROM WEST/NORTH TX
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL.

..WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EAST TX AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN OK INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AR AND LA/MS.
THESE EARLY DAY STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED/PERIODIC SEVERE
HAIL ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LATER...BUT A POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX AND LA...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS TONIGHT.

AS HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WEST GULF COAST REGION DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SEEMINGLY WITHIN TWO REGIMES. FIRST...SEVERE STORMS /WITH A DOMINANT
HAIL THREAT/ WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE SOUTHEAST
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY. FARTHER EAST
WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH NORTHEAST EXTENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
TX/MUCH OF LA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS MID-UPPER 60S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND LA
AND SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION OCCURS /UP TO 1000-1500 J PER KG
MLCAPE/...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 35-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES. AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FROM LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN AL.

.GUYER.. 02/21/2008

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