SWODY1
SPC AC 210556
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST WED FEB 20 2008
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES...
..SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS...ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITHIN THESE WESTERLIES...SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY TROUGH SKIRTS THE PACIFIC WEST COAST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
WITH HEIGHT FALLS ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH...GULF MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE TX MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. MID 60S F
DEWPOINTS ARE AS FAR NORTH AS EAST CENTRAL TX LATE THIS
EVENING...SOUTH OF A SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT ANGLING FROM WEST/NORTH TX
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL.
..WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EAST TX AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN OK INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AR AND LA/MS.
THESE EARLY DAY STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED/PERIODIC SEVERE
HAIL ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LATER...BUT A POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX AND LA...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS TONIGHT.
AS HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WEST GULF COAST REGION DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SEEMINGLY WITHIN TWO REGIMES. FIRST...SEVERE STORMS /WITH A DOMINANT
HAIL THREAT/ WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE SOUTHEAST
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY. FARTHER EAST
WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH NORTHEAST EXTENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
TX/MUCH OF LA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS MID-UPPER 60S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND LA
AND SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION OCCURS /UP TO 1000-1500 J PER KG
MLCAPE/...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 35-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES. AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FROM LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN AL.
.GUYER.. 02/21/2008
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