DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Amend 1

ACUS01 KWNS 272252
SWODY1
SPC AC 272251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

VALID 272245Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN PA/SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA REGION SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WWD TO NRN/CENTRAL
GA...

AMENDED TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK WWD ACROSS WRN SC/NC INTO NRN AND
CENTRAL GA

...CENTRAL-NRN GA INTO PARTS OF WRN SC/NC...
THE DESTABILIZED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /MAINLY HAIL AND STRONGER
WIND GUSTS/ THROUGH 01-03Z. THE 18Z AND 19Z WRF-HRRR SUGGESTS THE
ONGOING STORMS OVER THE NRN HALF OF GA MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR THIS
EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS ENEWD INTO WRN SC AND ADJACENT SWRN
NC.

IN ADDITION TO INTRODUCING SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITIES TO THIS UPDATED
OUTLOOK...THE 15 PERCENT SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY LINE WAS EXPANDED
WSWWD AS WELL AS THE 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES BEING
EXPANDED WSWWD INTO NERN GA.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM MESOSCALE DETAILS...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION #1900.
/PETERS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0255 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010/
...ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...AS
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS -- ACROSS BOTH THE NRN GA/WRN
CAROLINAS REGION WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW...AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION AND VICINITY WHERE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS JUXTAPOSED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY.

ONE CHANGE OF NOTE WAS IMPLEMENTED ACROSS SERN GA...WHERE SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED AS THE BAND OF STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES
SHIFTING INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
ITS WAKE.
/GOSS

..PETERS/GOSS.. 09/27/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010/

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL ROTATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA
OF THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING A RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS.

...SC/NC COAST SHORT-TERM...
MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX SETUP ACROSS GA/SC/NC
WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO NEAR THE COAST...SUGGESTING THAT THE GREATEST
SHORT-TERM RISK OF SEVERE IS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS OF SC...AND FAR EASTERN NC. SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

...CENTRAL NC INTO DELMARVA...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC NEAR THE
REMNANT FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THIS
REGION AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A POCKET OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A TORNADO. THESE STORMS WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DARK INTO PARTS OF VA AND EVENTUALLY
NJ/DE/MD WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK.

...NORTHERN GA...
FINALLY...THE POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY OVER
AL/GA...COUPLED WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVER GA...MAY RESULT IN
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA MAY
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

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KFFC [272245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 272245
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM HAIL JONESBORO 33.52N 84.35W
09/27/2010 E0.88 INCH CLAYTON GA PUBLIC

&&

$$

BELANGER

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KBMX [272242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 272242
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
542 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM HAIL SAKS 33.71N 85.85W
09/27/2010 E0.25 INCH CALHOUN AL BROADCAST MEDIA

PEA SIZE HAIL AT US 431 AND 21 INTERSECTION.

&&

$$

MBAER

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KFFC [272239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 272239
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
639 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 PM HAIL 4 E DULUTH 34.00N 84.07W
09/27/2010 E1.00 INCH GWINNETT GA PUBLIC

REPORTED FROM A LOCATION NEAR INTERSTATE 85 AND OLD
PEACHTREE ROAD.

&&

$$

BELANGER

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KILM [272217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 272217
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNE LELAND 34.26N 78.04W
09/27/2010 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD FLOODED...ON LINCOLN ROAD BETWEEN LINCOLN SCHOOL AND
THE RAILROAD TRACKS.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KILM [272215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 272215
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM FLASH FLOOD LELAND 34.24N 78.05W
09/27/2010 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

ON HWY 74/76 EAST...ROAD WASHING OUT BETWEEN OLD
FAYETTEVILLE ROAD AND MOUNT MISERY ROAD.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KILM [272213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 272213
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
613 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NNW WINNABOW 34.18N 78.11W
09/27/2010 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD FLOODED AND THE SIDE IS WASHED AWAY ON TOWN CREEK
ROAD...BETWEEN PHILLIPS NURSERY AND QUEENS WAY.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KFFC [272206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 272206
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
606 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL SMYRNA 33.88N 84.51W
09/27/2010 E1.00 INCH COBB GA PUBLIC

0559 PM HAIL SANDY SPRINGS 33.93N 84.38W
09/27/2010 E1.75 INCH FULTON GA PUBLIC

QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED

0559 PM HAIL 4 N WALESKA 34.37N 84.55W
09/27/2010 E1.00 INCH CHEROKEE GA EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

BELANGER

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KAKQ [272202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 272202
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
602 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSW HERTFORD 36.12N 76.51W
09/27/2010 PERQUIMANS NC EMERGENCY MNGR

POSSIBLE TORNADO. TREES DOWN AND SHED DESTORYED. DAMAGE
PATH 20 YARDS WIDE AND ONE QUARTER MILE LONG

&&

$$

LALEXAND

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1900

ACUS11 KWNS 272201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272201
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-280000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN GA INTO UPSTATE S CAROLINA AND PARTS
OF WRN N CAROLINA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272201Z - 280000Z

SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE CONFINED TO THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
OR SO. SO THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ...BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RECENT RAPID INCREASE IN VIGOROUS LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ATLANTA AREA IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH IS NOW
BEGINNING TO PIVOT OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY ONLY WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AS CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500
J/KG...BUT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME RATHER STEEP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET ADVECTS ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH 50-70 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
CONDUCIVE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGEST
STORMS THROUGH 00-01Z...AS THEY GRADUALLY DEVELOP
EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TOWARD
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THEREAFTER...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING
CONTRIBUTES TO EXPANDING/CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL...STABILIZING LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

..KERR.. 09/27/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 34518455 35208412 35488314 34938212 33728239 32748309
32678388 32978426 33188480 33938475 34518455

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KILM [272134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 272134
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
534 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM FLASH FLOOD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/27/2010 NEW HANOVER NC EMERGENCY MNGR

RESIDENCE AT BLUE CLAY AND NORTH KERR WITH MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDING FLOODED STORAGE BUILDINGS IN THE BACK OF THE
PROPERTY.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KILM [272132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 272132
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
532 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM FLASH FLOOD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/27/2010 NEW HANOVER NC EMERGENCY MNGR

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AT COLLEGE ROAD AND WILSHIRE. ROADS
IMPASSABLE.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KILM [272131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 272131
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
531 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM FLASH FLOOD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/27/2010 NEW HANOVER NC EMERGENCY MNGR

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON NEW CENTER DRIVE AND RACINE
DRIVE...ROADS IMPASSABLE.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KAKQ [272129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 272129
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
528 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM TORNADO 1 SW MACHIPONGO 37.39N 75.91W
09/27/2010 NORTHAMPTON VA EMERGENCY MNGR

SHED BLOWN OVER AND TREES DOWN. DAMAGE 30 YARDS WIDE AND
ONE QUARTER MILE LONG

&&

$$

LALEXAND

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KILM [272128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 272128
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
528 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM FLASH FLOOD CAROLINA BEACH 34.04N 77.90W
09/27/2010 NEW HANOVER NC EMERGENCY MNGR

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS CANAL DRIVE. LAKE IS ABOUT TO
COME OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KILM [272127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 272127
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
527 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM FLASH FLOOD CASTLE HAYNE 34.35N 77.90W
09/27/2010 NEW HANOVER NC EMERGENCY MNGR

CASTLE HAYNE ROAD 1800 BLOCK FLOODED...AND UPS TRUCK
FLOATING IN THE ROAD.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KGSP [272116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 272116
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 1 NNW ROBBINSVILLE 35.34N 83.81W
09/27/2010 E0.75 INCH GRAHAM NC TRAINED SPOTTER

MINOR LEAF DAMAGE

&&

$$

KRENTZ

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KJAX [272031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 272031
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1227 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW LULU 30.10N 82.52W
09/27/2010 COLUMBIA FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS ROOF PARTIALLY TORN OFF OF A
SINGLE WIDE MOBILE HOME NEAR STATE ROADS 252 AND 245.

&&

$$

DEESE

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KTOP [272029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 272029
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NE COUNCIL GROVE 38.72N 96.42W
09/25/2010 MORRIS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN. BARN MOVED THREE FEET FROM
FOUNDATION. LARGE EMPTY FUEL BARRELS ROLLED. TIME
ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

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KBMX [272017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 272017
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
317 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM HAIL NOCCALULA FALLS 34.04N 86.03W
09/27/2010 E1.00 INCH ETOWAH AL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

LARGE GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL REPORTED FROM
THUNDERSTORM/STRONG SHOWER JUST NORTH OF GADSDEN

&&

$$

KLAWS

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KILM [272001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 272001
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
401 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0319 PM FLOOD 5 WSW SMITH CREEK 34.24N 77.94W
09/27/2010 NEW HANOVER NC PUBLIC

STREAMS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KCTP [272000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 272000
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E PARADISE 40.00N 76.08W
09/27/2010 LANCASTER PA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

KIZNER FIRE DEPT REPORTED TREES DOWN AND PARTIAL DAMAGE
TO A BARN ROOF NEAR VINTAGE. DAMAGE MAY HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BRIEF LOW-TOPPED TORNADO.

&&

$$

STEINBUGL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271956
SWODY1
SPC AC 271955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN PA/SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA REGION SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...

...ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...AS
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS -- ACROSS BOTH THE NRN GA/WRN
CAROLINAS REGION WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW...AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION AND VICINITY WHERE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS JUXTAPOSED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY.

ONE CHANGE OF NOTE WAS IMPLEMENTED ACROSS SERN GA...WHERE SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED AS THE BAND OF STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES
SHIFTING INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
ITS WAKE.

..GOSS.. 09/27/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010/

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL ROTATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA
OF THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING A RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS.

...SC/NC COAST SHORT-TERM...
MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX SETUP ACROSS GA/SC/NC
WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO NEAR THE COAST...SUGGESTING THAT THE GREATEST
SHORT-TERM RISK OF SEVERE IS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS OF SC...AND FAR EASTERN NC. SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

...CENTRAL NC INTO DELMARVA...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC NEAR THE
REMNANT FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THIS
REGION AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A POCKET OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A TORNADO. THESE STORMS WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DARK INTO PARTS OF VA AND EVENTUALLY
NJ/DE/MD WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK.

...NORTHERN GA...
FINALLY...THE POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY OVER
AL/GA...COUPLED WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVER GA...MAY RESULT IN
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA MAY
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

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KMRX [271952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 271952
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
352 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0342 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SW DUCKTOWN 34.99N 84.44W
09/27/2010 POLK TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES DOWN ON GRASSY CREEK RD. 4 MILES SW OF
DUCKTOWN...REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

&&

$$

SROBERTS

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KILM [271951]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 271951
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
351 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM FLOOD 5 WNW BOILING SPRING LA 34.06N 78.14W
09/27/2010 BRUNSWICK NC BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING SOUTHBOUND ON INTERSTATE 17 NEAR LANDVILLE RD.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KILM [271926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 271926
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM FLOOD LELAND 34.24N 78.05W
09/27/2010 BRUNSWICK NC PUBLIC

SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED IN TOWN.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KCHS [271921]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 271921
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
321 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0249 PM TSTM WND GST 22 ESE RACCOON BLUFF 31.40N 80.87W
09/27/2010 M40 MPH AMZ354 GA BUOY

BUOY 41008 MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS.

&&

$$

DPB

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KILM [271913]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 271913
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
313 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM FLOOD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/27/2010 NEW HANOVER NC PUBLIC

STREET FLOODING ON 58TH STREET, BETWEEN OLEANDER AND
ROSELAND DRIVE.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KILM [271843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 271843
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
243 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0242 PM FLOOD 4 ESE SHALLOTTE 33.95N 78.33W
09/27/2010 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

AT THE INTERSECTION OF GRAY BRIDGE ROAD AND ASH ROAD, A
PORTION OF THE ROAD WAS WASHED AWAY.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KILM [271841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 271841
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
241 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 PM FLOOD 4 W SILVER LAKE 34.14N 77.99W
09/27/2010 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

STREET FLOODING AT WEST PORT AND MALLORY CREEK.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KILM [271840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 271840
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
240 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 PM FLOOD 4 NNW OAK ISLAND 33.98N 78.20W
09/27/2010 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

STANDING WATER ON ZION HILL ROAD.

&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KJAX [271825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 271825
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW DOWNTOWN JACKSONVI 30.39N 81.71W
09/27/2010 DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

DAMAGE TO A HOUSE WAS REPORTED AT 2113 BROOKLYN ROAD WITH
WINDOWS BROKEN.

&&

$$

ARS

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KILN [271818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 271818
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
217 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 PM TORNADO 4 ENE BEXLEY 39.98N 82.85W
09/22/2010 F0 FRANKLIN OH DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

VIDEO FOOTAGE FROM COLUMBUS METRO TRAFFIC CAMERA SHOWS A
BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ALONG I-270 JUST NORTH OF BROAD
STREET. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65 MPH. TORNADO LASTED LESS
THAN A MINUTE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IN THE AREA.

&&

$$

BINAU

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KILM [271754]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 271754
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
154 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM FLOOD 1 N MASONBORO 34.18N 77.87W
09/27/2010 NEW HANOVER NC EMERGENCY MNGR

A CREEK IS OVERFLOWING BEASLEY ROAD.

&&

$$

43

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 271718
SWODY2
SPC AC 271718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...AS ONE
PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND A SECOND DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME WHILE
SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO SRN QUEBEC LATE.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN WITH TIME...AS IT MOVES
TOWARD/OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION NWD
INTO PA/NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS NEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE WARM SECTOR IS PROGGED TO LINGER ONSHORE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HOWEVER...ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.
STILL...THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUATION OF
ISOLATED STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF RAIN/RAIN
SHOWERS.

WHILE THE LACK OF MORE APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS
SEVERE THREAT...VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS NNEWD WITH TIME. WHILE FLOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...DEGREE OF SPEED
SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION WITHIN
ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
THIS REGION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCALLY-DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR
AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

..GOSS.. 09/27/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1899

ACUS11 KWNS 271703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271703
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-271830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271703Z - 271830Z

SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NRN VA/MD/DE WITH
TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO PORTIONS OF
SRN PA/NJ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH SBCAPE VALUES ARE
MEAGER ACROSS THIS REGION...A SMALL POCKET OF MODEST SFC-3KM LAPSE
RATES -ON THE ORDER OF 6 C/KM - HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE DELMARVA.
THIS APPEARS TO BE INSTRUMENTAL IN RECENT SHALLOW SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL SMALL SUPERCELLS HAVE INTENSIFIED ALONG
RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE BUOYANCY IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW OF
THESE STRONGER CORES MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES DESPITE THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW CLOUD TOPS. IF BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT...AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO
ACCOUNT FOR TORNADO THREAT WITH SHALLOW SUPERCELLS.

..DARROW.. 09/27/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40387726 40117542 39437429 38577492 39167746 39897792
40387726

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271625
SWODY1
SPC AC 271624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF GA/SC INTO THE
DELMARVA REGION...

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL ROTATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA
OF THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING A RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS.

...SC/NC COAST SHORT-TERM...
MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX SETUP ACROSS GA/SC/NC
WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO NEAR THE COAST...SUGGESTING THAT THE GREATEST
SHORT-TERM RISK OF SEVERE IS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS OF SC...AND FAR EASTERN NC. SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

...CENTRAL NC INTO DELMARVA...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC NEAR THE
REMNANT FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THIS
REGION AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A POCKET OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A TORNADO. THESE STORMS WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DARK INTO PARTS OF VA AND EVENTUALLY
NJ/DE/MD WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK.

...NORTHERN GA...
FINALLY...THE POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY OVER
AL/GA...COUPLED WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVER GA...MAY RESULT IN
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA MAY
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/27/2010

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KMHX [271625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 271625
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1224 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM FLOOD WASHINGTON 35.56N 77.05W
09/27/2010 BEAUFORT NC EMERGENCY MNGR

ROADS TO US 264 AND US 264 ARE IMPASSABLE WITH ABOUT 12
VEHICLES ABANDON.

&&

$$

BMELENDE

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KMRX [271555]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 271555
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1155 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 N JASPER 35.12N 85.63W
09/27/2010 MARION TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 150...REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

&&

$$

SROBERTS

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KCHS [271546]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 271546
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1146 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1139 AM HEAVY RAIN CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
09/27/2010 U0.00 INCH CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH TIDE RESULTED IN MULTIPLE ROADS
WITH MINOR FLOODING DOWNTOWN. SOME INTERSECTIONS INCLUDE
CALHOUN AND RUTLEDGE...WASHINGTON AND SOCIETY...AND SOUTH
MARKET BETWEEN CHURCH AND STATE STREET.

&&

$$

RPA

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KTFX [271509]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 271509
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
908 AM MDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0133 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
09/26/2010 M63.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

63 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
09/26/2010 M59.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

59 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

0314 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
09/26/2010 M58.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

58 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

&&

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF HIGH WIND REPORTS RECEIVED SO FAR FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

BRUSDA

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KILM [271502]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 271502
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1102 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM FLOOD ASH 34.07N 78.52W
09/27/2010 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER COVERING THE ROAD AT INTERSECTION OF ASH RD AND
GRAY BRIDGE RD

&&

$$

RZOUZIAS

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KILM [271459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 271459
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1059 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM FLOOD LELAND 34.24N 78.05W
09/27/2010 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER COVERING THE ROAD AT RIVER RD AT WESTPORT DR. AND
MALORY CREEK.

&&

$$

RZOUZIAS

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KMHX [271459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 271459
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1059 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1038 AM HAIL JACKSONVILLE 34.76N 77.40W
09/27/2010 M0.25 INCH ONSLOW NC TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER-INCH HAIL WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 50 MPH AROUND
GOULD ROAD.

&&

$$

BMELENDE

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KCHS [271417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 271417
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1017 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 AM TSTM WND DMG SSE ADAMS RUN 32.72N 80.35W
09/27/2010 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF MAUSS HILL ROAD AND
MOON DAM ROAD. A SECOND TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF
STATE HIGHWAYS 162 AND 174. REPORT RELAYED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT FROM SCHOOL BUS DRIVERS. TIME ESTIMATED BY
RADAR.

&&

$$

RPA

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KRAH [271359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 271359
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
959 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW ROCKFISH 34.99N 79.11W
09/26/2010 HOKE NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HOKE CO DOT REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN AT ROCKFISH RD AND
PITTMAN GROVE CHURCH RD.

&&

$$

TDH

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KRAH [271357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 271357
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
957 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E RAEFORD 34.99N 79.17W
09/26/2010 HOKE NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HOKE CO DOT REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN AT PHILLIP HIGH CHURCH
RD AND ROCKFISH RD.

&&

$$

TDH

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KRAH [271354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 271354
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
953 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W MAR-MAC 35.33N 78.08W
09/26/2010 WAYNE NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WAYNE CO DOT REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN AT PROVIDENCE CHURCH RD
AND OLD GRANTHAM RD.

&&

$$

TDH

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KILM [271343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 271343
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
942 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM FLOOD 1 N GEORGETOWN 33.38N 79.29W
09/27/2010 GEORGETOWN SC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

COUNTY FIRE DEPT REPORTS HWY 17 SOUTHBOUND CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WATER BETWEEN HIGHMARKET STREET AND FRONT STREET.

&&

$$

WEISS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1898

ACUS11 KWNS 271253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271253
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-271430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN SC...ERN GA...EXTREME NRN FL...ERN
PANHANDLE OF FL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271253Z - 271430Z

COMBINATION OF GRADUAL INCREASES IN BOTH DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND
PRECONVECTIVE BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN UNCONDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER FORENOON
HOURS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOWS OVER NRN GA AND OVER S-CENTRAL FL
PANHANDLE INVOF AAF. FRONT CONNECTING THOSE LOWS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
SLOWLY EWD AS COLD FRONT...WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO PIVOT SEWD ACROSS NERN MS TOWARD NRN AL. LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS GA AND SRN APPALACHIANS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND LIGHTNING DENSITY HAS INCREASED IN PRIMARY
BAND OF LIFT FROM APALACHEE BAY NNEWD ACROSS ERN GA...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NE OVER SC. PREDOMINANT STORM MODE
MAY REMAIN LINEAR...GIVEN VWP AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
MIDLEVEL FLOW AND MEAN WIND VECTORS EACH ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO
ZONE OF STRONGEST ASCENT. STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOW/LEWP FEATURES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AS
WELL AS FOR ROTATION IN ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CONVECTION
AHEAD OF PRIMARY BAND. MODIFIED JAX RAOB INDICATES ONLY WEAK
COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER WAA AND DIABATIC HEATING IS NECESSARY
TO RENDER SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WHERE THETAE HAD BEEN
RELATIVELY LOW...WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE. MEANWHILE...35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED
BENEATH GRADIENT RESPONSE ALOFT TO APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE
100-200 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH SHOULD PERSIST.

..EDWARDS.. 09/27/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 31508315 32078211 32508177 33688061 34178048 34077909
33847859 33467910 33137917 32997939 32478029 32518051
32378039 32048087 31578113 31028143 30498145 29758250
29068300 29288310 29428321 29448330 29518340 29678340
29768362 29938367 30098399 30038428 29898432 29578502
29678516 30558422 31508315

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271225
SWODY1
SPC AC 271224

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM N FL/SE GA
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SE ATLANTIC AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN MS. THE MS
CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT AND EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD FROM ERN ND/MN. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK LOW INVOF THE FL BIG BEND WILL DEVELOP NNEWD ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING...IN
ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A BROAD MOIST WARM SECTOR IS PRESENT FROM FL/GA NEWD ACROSS THE ERN
CAROLINAS TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 68-72 F ARE COMMON. THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY HAS
BEEN LIMITED IN THE WARM SECTOR THUS FAR AS A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/RAIN AND RELATED POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE
UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL...A CONTINUED INFLUX
OF LOW-MID 70S DEWPOINTS FROM JUST OFFSHORE...AND A FEW CLOUD
BREAKS...COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL WEAK DESTABILIZATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THE OBSERVED AND FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL FAVOR RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN MULTIPLE BANDS ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS.

MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND RESULTANT
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TODAY IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT...AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTS NEWD. THE
OBSERVED UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY WIND PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN
THE LLJ EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT ACROSS VA/PA WHEN THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN MORE RAPIDLY TOWARD WRN PA. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS /ESPECIALLY ON
THE FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW/...AS WELL AS BOWING
SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINES/CLUSTERS. DAMAGING GUSTS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR THROUGH TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 09/27/2010

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KCHS [271016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 271016
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
616 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 39 SSE CENTENARY 32.50N 79.10W
09/27/2010 M45 MPH AMZ370 XX BUOY

&&

$$

RPA

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KMPX [271015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMPX 271015
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HAIL BUTTERFIELD 43.96N 94.79W
09/22/2010 M1.25 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

RANGED FROM PEA TO HALF DOLLAR

0710 PM HAIL 4 SW BUTTERFIELD 43.92N 94.85W
09/22/2010 M1.25 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 PM HAIL 1 SW SOUTH BRANCH 43.87N 94.57W
09/22/2010 M1.00 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0750 PM HAIL 2 SSE SOUTH BRANCH 43.85N 94.54W
09/22/2010 M1.00 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0754 PM HAIL 1 W TRUMAN 43.83N 94.46W
09/22/2010 M1.50 INCH MARTIN MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0803 PM HAIL NW NORTHROP 43.74N 94.44W
09/22/2010 M1.00 INCH MARTIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0825 PM HAIL WINNEBAGO 43.77N 94.17W
09/22/2010 M1.00 INCH FARIBAULT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN NEW ULM 44.31N 94.46W
09/22/2010 M1.75 INCH BROWN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0908 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE DARFUR 44.09N 94.80W
09/22/2010 M2.35 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0935 PM FLOOD LAKE CRYSTAL 44.10N 94.22W
09/22/2010 BLUE EARTH MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROAD CLOSED IN LAKE CRYSTAL DUE TO HIGH WATER IN EXCESS

OF A FOOT. 3-4 INCHES OF WATER COVERING ROADS IN RAPIDAN.

1030 PM FLOOD PORTER 44.64N 96.17W
09/22/2010 YELLOW MEDICINE MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER ROAD AT HWY 68

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN CANNON FALLS 44.52N 92.90W
09/23/2010 M4.10 INCH GOODHUE MN COUNTY OFFICIAL

MEASURED AT BILSBY DAM SINCE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

1210 AM FLOOD FAIRMONT 43.64N 94.46W
09/23/2010 MARTIN MN COUNTY OFFICIAL

CURB FLOODING REPORTED IN TOWN

0229 AM FLOOD MINNESOTA LAKE 43.84N 93.83W
09/23/2010 FARIBAULT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

7.38 INCHES OF RAIN. LIFT STATION FLOODING WITH REPORTS
OF BASEMENTS FILLING WITH WATER.

0300 AM FLOOD 4 E WALNUT GROVE 44.23N 95.39W
09/23/2010 REDWOOD MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER ROAD AT COUNTY RD 7 SOUTH OF US HWY 14

0300 AM FLOOD 2 E WALNUT GROVE 44.23N 95.43W
09/23/2010 REDWOOD MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER ROAD AT HWY 10 SOUTH OF US HWY 14

0400 AM FLASH FLOOD OWATONNA 44.09N 93.22W
09/23/2010 STEELE MN EMERGENCY MNGR

STREET FLOODING IN OWATONNA. INTERSECTIONS CLOSED. HOMES
EVACUATED ALONG MAPLE CREEK. SANDBAGGING ALONG THE
STRAIGHT RIVER WHICH IS OUT OF ITS BANKS.

0430 AM HEAVY RAIN GOODHUE 44.40N 92.62W
09/23/2010 M4.50 INCH GOODHUE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0440 AM HEAVY RAIN CANNON FALLS 44.52N 92.90W
09/23/2010 M4.85 INCH GOODHUE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0515 AM HEAVY RAIN JORDAN 44.67N 93.63W
09/23/2010 M2.35 INCH SCOTT MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0545 AM FLASH FLOOD ZUMBROTA 44.29N 92.67W
09/23/2010 GOODHUE MN DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HIGHWAY 52 CLOSED FROM NEAR ZUMBROTA TO PINE ISLAND DUE
TO WATER OVER THE ROADS /RUNOFF FROM FARM FIELDS/.
NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES IN ZUMBROTA COUNTY INCLUDING
HIGHWAY 60 NEAR BOMBAY AND HIGHWAY 56 NEAR WEST CONCORD
DUE TO OVERFLOWING CREEKS.

0546 AM HEAVY RAIN BLUE EARTH 43.64N 94.10W
09/23/2010 M4.92 INCH FARIBAULT MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN RED WING 44.58N 92.60W
09/23/2010 M2.73 INCH GOODHUE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0641 AM HEAVY RAIN S MAPLETON 43.92N 93.95W
09/23/2010 E6.00 INCH BLUE EARTH MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER MEASURED 6+ INCHES OF RAINFALL. AMOUNT OVER 6
INCHES IS UNKNOWN BECAUSE HIS GAUGE HAD OVERFLOWED.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN SPRINGFIELD 44.24N 94.98W
09/23/2010 M4.00 INCH BROWN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN MONTEVIDEO 44.95N 95.72W
09/23/2010 M1.92 INCH CHIPPEWA MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN FARMINGTON 44.66N 93.18W
09/23/2010 M2.70 INCH DAKOTA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 ENE MINNESOTA LAKE 43.85N 93.81W
09/23/2010 FARIBAULT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

8.35 INCHES OF RAIN WITH PONDING AND STANDING WATER AND
LOCAL STREAMS RISING QUICKLY.

0715 AM HEAVY RAIN WELCOME 43.67N 94.62W
09/23/2010 M4.90 INCH MARTIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN ALDEN 43.67N 93.57W
09/23/2010 M7.00 INCH FREEBORN MN BROADCAST MEDIA

0800 AM FLASH FLOOD TRUMAN 43.83N 94.44W
09/23/2010 MARTIN MN EMERGENCY MNGR

ROADS FLOODED IN TRUMAN. FOUR TO FIVE FEET OF WATER IN
BASEMENTS. EGRESS WINDOWS BROKEN DUE TO FLOODING.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN FARIBAULT 44.30N 93.27W
09/23/2010 M3.57 INCH RICE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN ALBERT LEA 43.66N 93.37W
09/23/2010 M3.92 INCH FREEBORN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0801 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW SOUTH BRANCH 43.87N 94.57W
09/23/2010 M9.82 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0816 AM HEAVY RAIN KENYON 44.27N 92.99W
09/23/2010 M5.00 INCH GOODHUE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL UP TO THAT POINT.

0830 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 S ST JAMES 43.90N 94.63W
09/23/2010 M8.00 INCH WATONWAN MN PUBLIC

SMALL LAKE LEVELS IN THE AREA HAVE INCREASED MARKEDLY.

0830 AM HEAVY RAIN FAIRMONT 43.64N 94.46W
09/23/2010 M4.30 INCH MARTIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0905 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW SOUTH BRANCH 43.87N 94.57W
09/23/2010 M9.82 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0940 AM HEAVY RAIN ST JAMES 43.98N 94.63W
09/23/2010 M8.75 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0940 AM FLOOD ST JAMES 43.98N 94.63W
09/23/2010 WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS STREETS UNDERWATER WITH SOME CLOSED. A FEW
APARTMENTS HAVE BEEN EVACUATED DUE TO WATER.

0955 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW KIESTER 43.56N 93.75W
09/23/2010 M4.20 INCH FARIBAULT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL THUS FAR

1102 AM HEAVY RAIN AMBOY 43.89N 94.16W
09/23/2010 M10.45 INCH BLUE EARTH MN CO-OP OBSERVER

1130 AM HEAVY RAIN ZUMBROTA 44.29N 92.67W
09/23/2010 M5.76 INCH GOODHUE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

TWENTY FOUR HOUR TOTAL.

1140 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE DARFUR 44.09N 94.80W
09/23/2010 M5.66 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0151 PM HEAVY RAIN 17 NE OWATONNA 44.26N 92.98W
09/23/2010 M8.00 INCH GOODHUE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

TWENTY FOUR HOUR TOTAL.

0418 PM FLASH FLOOD KENYON 44.27N 92.99W
09/23/2010 GOODHUE MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 60 WEST OF KENYON IS CLOSED.

0418 PM FLASH FLOOD PINE ISLAND 44.20N 92.65W
09/23/2010 GOODHUE MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

COUNTY ROAD 3 IS UNDER WATER. GROCERY STORES IN TOWN SHUT
DOWN.

0418 PM FLASH FLOOD ZUMBROTA 44.29N 92.67W
09/23/2010 GOODHUE MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 58 CLOSED. MULTIPLE COUNTY ROADS ARE CLOSED TOO.

0422 PM HEAVY RAIN EAU CLAIRE 44.82N 91.49W
09/23/2010 M3.40 INCH EAU CLAIRE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL.

0430 PM HEAVY RAIN GOODHUE 44.40N 92.62W
09/23/2010 M5.10 INCH GOODHUE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL.

0430 PM HEAVY RAIN MONTGOMERY 44.44N 93.58W
09/23/2010 M5.51 INCH LE SUEUR MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL.

0458 PM HEAVY RAIN CHANHASSEN 44.86N 93.56W
09/23/2010 M2.79 INCH CARVER MN NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM TOTAL AT NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN GLENWOOD CITY 45.06N 92.17W
09/23/2010 M6.80 INCH ST. CROIX WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL.

0515 PM FLOOD PORTER 44.64N 96.17W
09/23/2010 YELLOW MEDICINE MN EMERGENCY MNGR

LEVEE OVERTOPPED AND ERODING ON THE YELLOW MEDICINE
RIVER. COMMUNITIY IS SANDBAGGING AS HOUSES AND SOME
BUSINESS ARE BEING THREATENED.

0543 PM HEAVY RAIN WSW ST JAMES 43.98N 94.63W
09/23/2010 M9.00 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

0552 PM HEAVY RAIN HAMMOND 44.97N 92.44W
09/23/2010 M2.83 INCH ST. CROIX WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 SW GRANITE FALLS 44.73N 95.65W
09/23/2010 M3.70 INCH YELLOW MEDICINE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0645 PM HEAVY RAIN MANANNAH 45.31N 94.64W
09/23/2010 M1.85 INCH MEEKER MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE THIS MORNING.

0715 PM HEAVY RAIN CHANHASSEN 44.86N 93.56W
09/23/2010 M2.86 INCH CARVER MN NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM TOTAL OBSERVED AT THE NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

0730 PM FLASH FLOOD ELLSWORTH 44.74N 92.48W
09/23/2010 PIERCE WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

HALF DOZEN ROADS UNDERWATER IN PIERCE COUNTY.

0758 PM FLOOD FARIBAULT 44.30N 93.27W
09/23/2010 RICE MN EMERGENCY MNGR

2ND AVENUE IN FARIBAULT FLOODED. NUMEROUS BASEMENTS IN
FARIBAULT ALSO FLOODED.

0758 PM FLOOD 4 E HARTLAND 43.80N 93.41W
09/23/2010 FREEBORN MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

A SECTION OF 340TH STREET BETWEEN COUNTY RD 20 AND COUNTY
RD 24 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. ROAD CLOSED SINCE 230 PM.

0800 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 E MONTROSE 45.07N 93.85W
09/23/2010 M3.20 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL.

0923 PM HEAVY RAIN BIRD ISLAND 44.76N 94.89W
09/23/2010 M4.30 INCH RENVILLE MN PUBLIC

1000 PM HEAVY RAIN N BLAINE 45.17N 93.21W
09/23/2010 M3.10 INCH ANOKA MN PUBLIC

1000 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE MINNEAPOLIS 44.92N 93.17W
09/23/2010 M3.40 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0119 AM HEAVY RAIN PRIOR LAKE 44.73N 93.43W
09/24/2010 M3.82 INCH SCOTT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

0358 AM FLOOD OWATONNA 44.09N 93.22W
09/24/2010 STEELE MN EMERGENCY MNGR

NORTH/SOUTH BRIDGES IN TOWN ARE CLOSED AND THE LAST OF
THE EAST/WEST BRIDGES IN TOWN COULD BE CLOSED SHORTLY. MN
DOT IS EVALUATING CLOSING INTERSTATE 35W SOUTH OF TOWN IN
BOTH DIRECTIONS WITH WATER OVER ROAD.

0530 AM FLOOD S OWATONNA 44.09N 93.22W
09/24/2010 STEELE MN EMERGENCY MNGR

NORTH AND SOUTH BOUND LANES OF INTERSTATE 35 HAVE BEEN
CLOSED SOUTH OF OWATONNA DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN WANAMINGO 44.31N 92.79W
09/24/2010 M7.30 INCH GOODHUE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL PCPN.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN MINNETONKA 44.91N 93.50W
09/24/2010 M2.87 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1 WEST OF GLEN LAKE AREA. PCPN IS STORM TOTAL.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE MINNESOTA LAKE 43.85N 93.81W
09/24/2010 M1.48 INCH FARIBAULT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

24-HOUR RAINFALL

0742 AM HEAVY RAIN NORTHFIELD 44.45N 93.17W
09/24/2010 M6.79 INCH RICE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL.

0742 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E HAUGEN 45.61N 91.76W
09/24/2010 M3.10 INCH BARRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN AMBOY 43.89N 94.16W
09/24/2010 M10.68 INCH BLUE EARTH MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN FARIBAULT 44.30N 93.27W
09/24/2010 M5.56 INCH RICE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN MANKATO 44.17N 93.99W
09/24/2010 M5.18 INCH BLUE EARTH MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN ALBERT LEA 43.66N 93.37W
09/24/2010 M5.18 INCH FREEBORN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN FAIRMONT 43.64N 94.46W
09/24/2010 M5.42 INCH MARTIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN WINNEBAGO 43.77N 94.17W
09/24/2010 M7.98 INCH FARIBAULT MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN ZUMBROTA 44.29N 92.67W
09/24/2010 M7.66 INCH GOODHUE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN WASECA 44.08N 93.50W
09/24/2010 M7.65 INCH WASECA MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN BLUE EARTH 43.64N 94.10W
09/24/2010 M6.73 INCH FARIBAULT MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN SPRINGFIELD 44.24N 94.98W
09/24/2010 M5.47 INCH BROWN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

1226 PM HEAVY RAIN MENOMONIE 44.89N 91.91W
09/24/2010 M3.50 INCH DUNN WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL.

1226 PM HEAVY RAIN CHANHASSEN 44.86N 93.56W
09/24/2010 M2.95 INCH CARVER MN NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM TOTAL.

1236 PM FLOOD LAMBERTON 44.23N 95.26W
09/24/2010 REDWOOD MN PARK/FOREST SRVC

MINNESOTA DNR WATER CREWS MEASUERD 1900 CFS OVER A ROAD.
THE DEPTH OF THE WATER WAS 0.6 FEET AND THE LENGTH OF THE
AFFECTED AREA WAS ABOUT 3000 FEET.

0132 PM HEAVY RAIN OWATONNA 44.09N 93.22W
09/24/2010 M7.77 INCH STEELE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL FROM COCORAHS.

0226 PM FLOOD FARIBAULT 44.30N 93.27W
09/24/2010 RICE MN EMERGENCY MNGR

CANNON RIVER FLOODED OVER 2ND AVE NW. FLOODING UP TO AND
INTO 1ST AVENUE NW. WATER TREATMENT PLANT IS FLOODED.

0344 PM HEAVY RAIN STANLEY 44.96N 90.94W
09/24/2010 M3.43 INCH CHIPPEWA WI CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL.

0417 PM FLOOD SPRINGFIELD 44.24N 94.98W
09/24/2010 BROWN MN EMERGENCY MNGR

POTENTIAL DYKE FAILURE ON THE COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR
EASTERN SPRINGFIELD. WATER SEEPAGE OBSERVED ON THE BOTTOM
OF THE DYKE.

0417 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE DALBO 45.66N 93.38W
09/24/2010 M4.00 INCH ISANTI MN TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL FOR SEPTEMBER 23RD.

0456 PM HEAVY RAIN OWATONNA 44.09N 93.22W
09/24/2010 M7.91 INCH STEELE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

1137 PM HEAVY RAIN ST JAMES 43.98N 94.63W
09/24/2010 M11.75 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL PCPN.

0740 PM FLOOD SPRINGFIELD 44.24N 94.98W
09/25/2010 BROWN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE QUARTER MILE OF RAILROAD TRACKS UNDER WATER JUST WEST
OF TOWN.

&&

$$

MTF

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 270832
SWOD48
SPC AC 270832

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W. WHILE STRONG SHEAR WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE ERN STATES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS DRY
NLY SURFACE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES IN THIS PATTERN.

..JEWELL.. 09/27/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1897

ACUS11 KWNS 270802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270802
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-271030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL-ERN FL PANHANDLE...SRN GA...ERN
SC...EXTREME SRN NC.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270802Z - 271030Z

POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING FOR STG-SVR GUSTS AND BRIEF TORNADO WITH
CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION...PERSISTING THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOWS OVER S-CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AND
WRN/CENTRAL GA...LATTER BEING ALONG DIFFUSE/WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM PAM NEWD OVER SC/NC PIEDMONT.
BETTER-DEFINED BUT STILL WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG
FRONT OVER NERN GA/NWRN SC AREA BY 12Z WITH APCH OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS TROUGH PIVOTING EWD FROM MS
ACROSS AL...AROUND SRN RIM OF BROAD MID-UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
MEM AREA. THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD TURN NEWD ACROSS AL/GA THROUGH
15Z...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA. WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK
LAPSE RATES OVER WARM SECTOR...ANY RELATED DESTABILIZATION ALOFT
WILL HELP TO OFFSET SLOW DIABATIC COOLING AT SFC AND KEEP EFFECTIVE
LIFTED PARCELS SFC-BASED. MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN IN 250-1000 J/KG
RANGE INLAND...AND 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR COASTS IN GREATER PROXIMITY
TO HIGH-THETAE MARINE AIR. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY OVER PORTIONS SRN GA...FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT GULF. SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER SERN GA AND NRN
FL...WITH STRONGER MLCINH...MAY NEARLY BIFURCATE SVR POTENTIAL WITH
NARROW CONNECTOR OVER CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL GA. TIME SERIES OF VWP FROM
GA SWD ACROSS FL PANHANDLE INDICATES STRENGTHENING OF MIDLEVEL WINDS
-- I.E. 700-500 MB -- WITH APCH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THOUGH BACKING
OF FLOW AROUND 850 MB WINDS HAS KEPT HODOGRAPHS FROM ENLARGING.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30-40 KT SHOULD REMAIN COMMON E OF FRONT. EFFECTIVE
SRH 150-250 J/KG IS EVIDENT IN NARROW STRIP AHEAD OF FRONT FROM AAF
AREA NEWD ALONG SC COASTAL PLAIN.

SHORT LINE SEGMENTS MAY POSE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS...WHILE RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS MAY ROTATE. GIVEN MRGL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG TRANSLATIONAL DEVIANCE NEEDED OFF
HODOGRAPH TO ATTAIN LARGE SRH...TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY
CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..EDWARDS.. 09/27/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 29968603 31548397 32508177 33568032 34577895 34507821
33867795 33927808 33847859 33467910 33137917 32997939
32478029 32518051 32378039 32048087 31578113 31618199
31168266 30568299 29068300 29288310 29428321 29448330
29518340 29678340 29768362 29938367 30098399 30038428
29898432 29578502 29678516 29678537 29828543 29908537
29698534 29828526 29958543 29998558 29968603

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KFSD [270608]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 270608
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
108 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 N VERMILLION 42.87N 96.90W
09/22/2010 CLAY SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

UNIVERSITY RD. UNDER WATER AND CLOSED. SEVERAL OTHER
ROADS CLOSED.

&&

$$

JCHAPMAN

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 270601
SWODY3
SPC AC 270600

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION
ON WED ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL WITH EXACT PLACEMENT. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY EXTEND NWD ALONG THE
SERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A GENERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NWD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ASHORE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY GIVEN NELY
SFC FLOW OVER THE LAND. NHC INDICATES JUST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS...THUS ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ANYWHERE
FROM FL TO THE CAROLINAS THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW FOR ANY SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..JEWELL.. 09/27/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270601
SWODY1
SPC AC 270559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH
SRN/ERN GA...MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS...CENTRAL/ERN VA TO FAR SERN PA
AND SRN NJ...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY SHIFTING SWD INTO THE
MID SOUTH PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL MOVE EWD FROM MS/AL TODAY
REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY 28/00Z. THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS IT LIFTS NNEWD
TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY. GIVEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC...THE EVOLUTION OF THE ERN U.S. SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING DEEP SSWLY WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM
CENTRAL/NRN GA EARLY IN THE PERIOD NWD TO ERN OH/WRN PA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...WITH STRONGEST DEEPENING OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN 28/00-12Z
AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED. MEANWHILE...A
SUB-SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEWD
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY REACHING THE WRN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN REACH NRN VA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY...INITIALLY STATIONARY FROM THE
CAROLINAS SSWWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD AS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS GA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD QUICKLY ENEWD
AFTER 28/00Z. THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM DELMARVA SWD TO OFF THE
SC/GA COAST TO NRN FL BY 12Z TUESDAY.

...ERN FL PANHANDLE/SRN-ERN GA NEWD TO FAR SERN PA/SRN NJ...
THE TRACK/GEOMETRY OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SYNOPTIC LOW SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM SECTOR OVER VA TO SPREAD WWD TO
IN LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS SUPPORT THE WARM SECTOR ALSO MOVING NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A MOIST AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE SERN STATES
TO CAROLINAS WILL SPREAD NWD...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2+
INCHES REACHING DELMARVA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES NWD. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR...RICH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES MAINLY
RANGING 500-1000 J/KG. MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE FROM ERN
FL PANHANDLE TO SRN SC AND ACROSS FAR ERN NC WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE INTO THE LOWER 70S. ANY SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT A
BOOST IN INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS SUGGEST TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z
TODAY FROM THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO SWRN GA...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ENEWD...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL TSTMS.
AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
BETWEEN 27/18-28/06Z AND WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
STRENGTHEN...TSTMS SHOULD BE FORM INTO LINES AND QLCS WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE LATTER
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AS
THE LLJ INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL-ERN GA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO SRN VA AS THIS REGION WILL RESIDE BENEATH
STRONG SSWLY H85-H70 FLOW /40-50 KT/.

DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...THE RICH MOISTURE AND STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THESE OVERNIGHT
THREATS SHOULD BE CONFINED FROM ERN NC/VA TO SERN PA/SRN NJ.

..PETERS/HURLBUT.. 09/27/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 270524
SWODY2
SPC AC 270524

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NY/SW NEW ENGLAND SWD
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND INTO ERN NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN 80+ KT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL ROTATE NWD OUT OF VA AND INTO NY BY
00Z AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OH INTO SWRN ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SC COAST NWD ACROSS ERN
NC...VA AND INTO SWRN PA EARLY TUE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 40-50 KT
SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SELY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS WELL INLAND.

...SRN NY/SW NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND INTO ERN NC...
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING NEAR THE COLD FRONT FROM PA INTO NC...AND
NEAR A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN PA INTO SRN NY/SWRN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY TUE. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONGOING STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY ALONG
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS
ERN PA...NJ AND SERN NY BY AFTERNOON WHEN FORCING AND INSTABILITY
ARE MAXIMIZED. OVERALL INSTABILITY PROFILES WILL BE WEAK WITH MUCAPE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LARGELY BE
OVER BY 00Z...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SHIFTS NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK.

..JEWELL.. 09/27/2010

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