SWODY2
SPC AC 270524
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NY/SW NEW ENGLAND SWD
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND INTO ERN NC...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN 80+ KT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL ROTATE NWD OUT OF VA AND INTO NY BY
00Z AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OH INTO SWRN ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SC COAST NWD ACROSS ERN
NC...VA AND INTO SWRN PA EARLY TUE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 40-50 KT
SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SELY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS WELL INLAND.
...SRN NY/SW NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND INTO ERN NC...
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING NEAR THE COLD FRONT FROM PA INTO NC...AND
NEAR A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN PA INTO SRN NY/SWRN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY TUE. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONGOING STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY ALONG
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS
ERN PA...NJ AND SERN NY BY AFTERNOON WHEN FORCING AND INSTABILITY
ARE MAXIMIZED. OVERALL INSTABILITY PROFILES WILL BE WEAK WITH MUCAPE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LARGELY BE
OVER BY 00Z...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SHIFTS NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK.
..JEWELL.. 09/27/2010
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