KFGF [151453]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KFGF 151453
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
953 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW VALLEY CITY 46.92N 98.01W
10/15/2009 M7.5 INCH BARNES ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL

0800 AM SNOW LITCHVILLE 46.66N 98.19W
10/15/2009 M6.0 INCH BARNES ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL...HEAVY WET SNOW BROUGHT DOWN SOME TREES
AND CAUSED SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO CORN STALKS.

0800 AM SNOW 5 NE CHAFFEE 46.83N 97.28W
10/15/2009 M4.0 INCH CASS ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

0800 AM SNOW PARK RIVER 48.39N 97.74W
10/15/2009 M3.0 INCH WALSH ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

0800 AM SNOW 3 N SARLES 48.99N 99.00W
10/15/2009 M4.8 INCH CAVALIER ND OTHER FEDERAL

24 HR SNOWFALL MEASURED BY BORDER PATROL AT SARLES PORT
OF ENTRY TO UNITED STATES.

0800 AM SNOW SEBEKA 46.63N 95.09W
10/15/2009 M2.5 INCH WADENA MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

0800 AM SNOW BRECKENRIDGE 46.26N 96.59W
10/15/2009 M1.0 INCH WILKIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

0800 AM SNOW NEW YORK MILLS 46.52N 95.37W
10/15/2009 M1.0 INCH OTTER TAIL MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

0800 AM SNOW CROOKSTON 47.77N 96.61W
10/15/2009 M2.0 INCH POLK MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM SNOW 1 W LANGDON 48.76N 98.39W
10/15/2009 M2.3 INCH CAVALIER ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM SNOW MAYVILLE 47.50N 97.33W
10/15/2009 M1.1 INCH TRAILL ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

0800 AM SNOW 3 S DALTON 46.13N 95.92W
10/15/2009 M3.6 INCH OTTER TAIL MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

0800 AM SNOW 7 NW CAVALIER 48.87N 97.73W
10/15/2009 M1.5 INCH PEMBINA ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM SNOW PEMBINA 48.97N 97.25W
10/15/2009 M1.0 INCH PEMBINA ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM SNOW LIDGERWOOD 46.07N 97.15W
10/15/2009 M1.5 INCH RICHLAND ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM SNOW OTTERTAIL 46.43N 95.56W
10/15/2009 M1.5 INCH OTTER TAIL MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KBIS [151452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151452
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
952 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW 4 N CARRINGTON 47.51N 99.13W
10/15/2009 M3.0 INCH FOSTER ND CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

LLP

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KFGF [151451]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151451
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
951 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW OTTERTAIL 46.43N 95.56W
10/15/2009 M1.5 INCH OTTER TAIL MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [151450]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151450
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW LIDGERWOOD 46.07N 97.15W
10/15/2009 M1.5 INCH RICHLAND ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [151449]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151449
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
949 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW PEMBINA 48.97N 97.25W
10/15/2009 M1.0 INCH PEMBINA ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [151448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151448
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
948 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 7 NW CAVALIER 48.87N 97.73W
10/15/2009 M1.5 INCH PEMBINA ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [151446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151446
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
946 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 3 S DALTON 46.13N 95.92W
10/15/2009 M3.6 INCH OTTER TAIL MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [151444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151444
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
944 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW MAYVILLE 47.50N 97.33W
10/15/2009 M1.1 INCH TRAILL ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [151443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151443
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 1 W LANGDON 48.76N 98.39W
10/15/2009 M2.3 INCH CAVALIER ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [151442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151442
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW CROOKSTON 47.77N 96.61W
10/15/2009 M2.0 INCH POLK MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [151423]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151423
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
923 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 3 N SARLES 48.99N 99.00W
10/15/2009 M4.8 INCH CAVALIER ND OTHER FEDERAL

24 HR SNOWFALL MEASURED BY BORDER PATROL AT SARLES PORT
OF ENTRY TO UNITED STATES.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KDLH [151419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDLH 151419
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0627 AM SNOW 15 N GRAND RAPIDS 47.45N 93.52W
10/15/2009 M1.0 INCH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW HILL CITY 46.99N 93.60W
10/15/2009 M0.7 INCH AITKIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 4 S BRUNO 46.22N 92.67W
10/15/2009 M1.0 INCH PINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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KFGF [151416]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151416
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
916 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW PARK RIVER 48.39N 97.74W
10/15/2009 M3.0 INCH WALSH ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [151410]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151410
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
910 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 5 NE CHAFFEE 46.83N 97.28W
10/15/2009 M4.0 INCH CASS ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KBIS [151403]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151403
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
903 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW OAKES 46.14N 98.09W
10/15/2009 M2.8 INCH DICKEY ND CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 4 S MINOT 48.17N 101.30W
10/15/2009 M1.0 INCH WARD ND CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW MONTPELIER 46.70N 98.59W
10/15/2009 M5.0 INCH STUTSMAN ND CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW GARRISON 47.65N 101.42W
10/15/2009 M2.0 INCH MCLEAN ND CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

LLP

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KMPX [151403]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 151403
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
903 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0903 AM SNOW CLAYTON 45.32N 92.17W
10/15/2009 M1.2 INCH POLK WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KFGF [151357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151357
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
857 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW NEW YORK MILLS 46.52N 95.37W
10/15/2009 M1.0 INCH OTTER TAIL MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [151355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151355
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
855 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW BRECKENRIDGE 46.26N 96.59W
10/15/2009 M1.0 INCH WILKIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KMPX [151355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 151355
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
855 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0812 AM SNOW MENOMONIE 44.89N 91.91W
10/15/2009 M1.0 INCH DUNN WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KFGF [151354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151354
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
854 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW SEBEKA 46.63N 95.09W
10/15/2009 M2.5 INCH WADENA MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [151345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151345
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
845 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW LITCHVILLE 46.66N 98.19W
10/15/2009 M6.0 INCH BARNES ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL...HEAVY WET SNOW BROUGHT DOWN SOME TREES
AND CAUSED SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO CORN STALKS.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [151342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151342
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
842 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW VALLEY CITY 46.92N 98.01W
10/15/2009 M7.5 INCH BARNES ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KPIH [151338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 151338
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
738 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0733 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNW KETCHUM 43.78N 114.41W
10/15/2009 M0.24 INCH BLAINE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL RAIN FALL PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

RSURVICK

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KDLH [151306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 151306
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 4 S BRUNO 46.22N 92.67W
10/15/2009 M1.0 INCH PINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151244
SWODY1
SPC AC 151242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MID-UPPER SPEED MAXIMA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE MS/OH
VALLEY REGION...AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER ERN PAC TROUGH. WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...THE MOST RELEVANT FEATURES WILL BE THE ESEWD PROGRESSION
OF AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX FROM CO/KS THIS MORNING TO THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS SPEED MAX WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAK
REMNANT LEE CYCLONE WHICH WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM NE TX ALONG THE
SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SRN AR...CENTRAL MS/AL...AND SRN
GA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE SEWD
AS A COLD FRONT AND REACH THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY
FRIDAY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA TODAY...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING OVER SRN AR...IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WAA IS
STRONGEST. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
PERSIST AND DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS LA/MS DURING THE DAY...FED BY AN
INFLUX OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE W/SW...AND MLCAPE VALUES
AOA 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED
BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS ALREADY PEAKED THIS
MORNING AND WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO WLY AND SPEEDS DIMINISH...THUS THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WARM PROFILES ALOFT SUGGEST THAT THE HAIL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED...WHILE THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY/DRYING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 10/15/2009

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KDLH [151241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 151241
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
741 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM SNOW HILL CITY 46.99N 93.60W
10/15/2009 M0.7 INCH AITKIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 769

WWUS20 KWNS 151209
SEL9
SPC WW 151209
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-151800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 769
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTH AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 710 AM UNTIL
100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MONROE LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NATCHEZ
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN AR WILL LIKELY
PERSIST AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS N/NE LA AND W CENTRAL MS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN INFLUX OF LOW-MID
70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS...MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN ADVANCE OF
A WEAK WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN EXTREME NE TX. DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 31025.

...THOMPSON

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KBIS [151156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151156
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 AM SNOW BOTTINEAU 48.83N 100.44W
10/15/2009 M2.5 INCH BOTTINEAU ND BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

PJA

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KDLH [151144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 151144
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0627 AM SNOW 15 N GRAND RAPIDS 47.45N 93.52W
10/15/2009 M1.0 INCH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DCANNON

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KBIS [151138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151138
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM SNOW LANSFORD 48.63N 101.38W
10/15/2009 M2.1 INCH BOTTINEAU ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL AS OF 5 AM CDT.

&&

$$

PJA

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KBIS [151138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151138
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 AM SNOW JAMESTOWN 46.91N 98.71W
10/15/2009 M3.0 INCH STUTSMAN ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL AS OF 607 AM CDT.

&&

$$

PJA

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KBIS [151135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151135
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM SNOW HARVEY 47.77N 99.94W
10/15/2009 M1.0 INCH WELLS ND BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

PJA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2110

ACUS11 KWNS 151040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151039
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-151315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN AR...EXTREME NE TX...NRN LA...EXTREME
W-CENTRAL MS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151039Z - 151315Z

CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR
THREAT IN CORRIDOR EXTENDING SEWD FROM PRESENT/LOOSELY-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER ARKLATEX REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO GROW UPSCALE AND EVOLVE INTO MORE CONCENTRATED
MCS...INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT MOVES SEWD.

MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AVAILABLE/EFFECTIVE INFLOW
LAYER WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY VERY MOIST/HIGH-THETAE CONDITIONS
WITH RESULTANT BOOST IN AVAILABLE BUOYANCY IN SYSTEM RELATIVE SENSE.
SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY LOW-MID 70S F IN FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL
OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 1000-200 J/KG MLCAPE
THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z...INCREASING THEREAFTER WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MEANWHILE...MLCINH IS ALREADY WEAK AND SHOULD NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY
FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...GIVEN CONSTRAINTS IMPOSED BY MOISTURE ON
DIABATIC COOLING. OFFSETTING FACTORS WILL INCLUDE LITTLE OR NO
APPRECIABLE EVAPORATE COOLING EFFECTS ON STORM-SCALE TO ACCELERATE
DOWNDRAFTS GENERATED ALOFT...AND LACK OF STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE
SFC FOR SUSTAINED/BROAD ZONE OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT THEREFORE IS TIED MORE TO SMALLER SCALE
BOW/LEWP PROCESSES AND RELATED/LOCALIZED OUTFLOW SURGES. MCS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY PARALLEL TO AND INVOF
DIFFUSE/QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONTAL ZONE. ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEAK...EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40-50 KT WILL AIR POTENTIAL STORM
ORGANIZATION. TAIL END OF MCS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
PROPAGATIONAL/BACKBUILDING COMPONENT OF MOVEMENT...WILL REMAIN ON
NERN EDGE OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES.
THEREFORE...WHILE ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE AND TORNADO
RISK IS NON-ZERO...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE EPISODIC STG-SVR GUSTS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/15/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33859445 33909272 33549172 32899085 32149070 31589192
32119352 33209440 33859445

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KFGF [151003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151003
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
503 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM HEAVY SNOW VALLEY CITY 46.92N 98.01W
10/15/2009 E5.0 INCH BARNES ND PUBLIC

VALLEY CITY SCHOOL SUPERINTENDENT AND BARNES COUNTY
SHERIFF OFFICE BOTH ESTIMATED 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. POWER
OUTAGES WERE COMMON.

&&

$$

DRIDDLE

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KSHV [150944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 150944
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
444 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 S IDABEL 33.76N 94.82W
10/15/2009 MCCURTAIN OK AMATEUR RADIO

MOVING SOUTHEAST.

&&

$$

ASTEVENS

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KSHV [150941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 150941
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
441 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM LIGHTNING VALLIANT 34.00N 95.09W
10/15/2009 MCCURTAIN OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

LIGHTNING HIT BARN AND STARTED A FIRE.

&&

$$

ASTEVENS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150855
SWOD48
SPC AC 150855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED STABLE/DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEEP CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL QUITE LOW OVER THE CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST
ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO IMPLY THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME SEVERE THREAT
COULD DEVELOP BY AROUND DAY 6/TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.

..GUYER.. 10/15/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2109

ACUS11 KWNS 150715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150715
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-150945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...SWRN/S-CENTRAL AR...EXTREME NWRN
LA...NE TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 150715Z - 150945Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND TO GROW IN COVERAGE
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT
HOURS...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS AND PERHAPS MRGL HAIL
OVER ARKLATEX AREA AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OK.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COMPLEX PATTERN OF BOUNDARIES...FEATURING
PRIMARY/QUASI STATIONARY SFC FRONT FROM WEAK LOW NW FTW...ENEWD
ACROSS DUA-DEQ AREAS. NRN BRANCH OF THIS FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM
SWRN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY OK NEWD ALMOST TO FSM...BECOMING DIFFUSE IN
AR. COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT OVER NERN OK AND NWRN AR MAY MERGE WITH
NRN STATIONARY FRONTAL BRANCH BY 10Z WITH SOME SEWD MOTION OF
COMBINED BOUNDARY. TROUGHING EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS AR TO
SECONDARY/WEAK LOW. EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS S OF MAIN FRONT...AND
BETWEEN IT AND NRN FRONTAL BRANCH OVER SERN OK...APPEAR TO BE WEAKLY
CAPPED AND EITHER AT OR VERY NEARLY SFC-BASED...WITH DEW POINTS
LOW-MID 70S S OF MAIN FRONT AND 68-70 F S OF NRN FRONTAL SEGMENT.
THIS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFFSETS WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH
TO YIELD MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG INVOF MAIN SFC FRONT...AND ALSO
MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG NWD ACROSS MUCH OF SERN OK AND SWRN
AR...ROOTED ABOVE SFC.

THROUGH 12Z..SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD AREA BETWEEN
GVT-TXK...WHILE COLD FRONT TRAILING WSWWD FROM LOW MOVES SEWD ACROSS
N-CENTRAL TX. ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AND SEWED ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTING
INCREASING STRENGTH/DENSITY OF CONVECTION FROM SERN OK ACROSS
PORTIONS SWRN AR...NE TX AND PERHAPS NWRN LA. WEAK/SELY SFC WINDS
AND 20-30 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW ALONG AND S OF MAIN FRONTAL SEGMENT
OVER NE TX AND IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREA OF SE OK WILL SUPPORT
ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE SRH 150-350
J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF JUXTAPOSITION OF CONVECTION WITH THAT
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IN QUESTION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE OVER BROADER MESOSCALE AREA...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES COMMONLY 45-55 KT IN FAVOR OF POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL AND
BOW STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH MESSY/CLUSTERED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY WARM
PROFILES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES INDICATE LIMITED HAIL
POTENTIAL...MAINLY WITH MOST SUSTAINED/INTENSE CELLS...WITH PRIMARY
CONCERN BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS
VERY MRGL/CONDITIONAL ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 10/15/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35159677 35359560 35039396 34649270 34229202 33269215
32629318 32829460 33319595 34059624 35159677

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150627
SWODY3
SPC AC 150626

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
DEEP CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE QUITE LOW OVER THE CONUS ON
SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT LIKELY TO CLEAR SOUTH FL EARLY IN THE DAY. WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...THE PRIMARY TSTM POTENTIAL
/ISOLATED AT THAT/ FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WA/ORE AND PERHAPS NORTHERN ID ATTENDANT TO A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

..GUYER.. 10/15/2009

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KREV [150606]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 150606
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1106 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0313 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW GARDNERVILLE 38.91N 119.75W
10/14/2009 M1.53 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION

0313 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 E SLOAT 39.87N 120.72W
10/14/2009 M2.25 INCH PLUMAS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

$$

WHOHMANN

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150536
SWODY2
SPC AC 150535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CONUS ON FRIDAY. THE LEAD PORTION OF THE EASTERN STATES
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/APPALACHIANS...WHILE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET
STREAK REINFORCES THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL ASIDE
FROM THE FL PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH TX AND/OR
THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...
AS GRADUAL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/MODEST COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INFLUX WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS. WHILE
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY BE
HINDERED BY EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/RAINFALL...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AT LEAST MODERATE PREFRONTAL SURFACE
HEATING/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE TSTMS MAINLY THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL
AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO AS WELL.

..GUYER.. 10/15/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150445
SWODY1
SPC AC 150443

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2009

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE
CNTRL GULF STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

CURRENT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION AS A
SERIES OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSES SERVE TO ESTABLISH A LONG WAVE TROUGH E
OF THE ROCKIES. THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES. AT
THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
PUSH SEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX AND MID SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF COAST
REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

...ERN TX EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES...

15/00Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT GOES SOUNDER AND GPS PW DATA INDICATE A
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND PW VALUES FROM
1.75-2.25 INCHES. REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE INCREASING WHILE VEERING TO A WSWLY
DIRECTION FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO OZARKS AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN
RESPONSE TO EWD TRANSLATION OF LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY. THESE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE
MAINTAINED TODAY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...ALLOWING MOIST AIR
MASS TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF STATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA/
WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1500-2500 J/KG.

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD INVOF SURFACE FRONT FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AS INCREASED HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE INTERACT WITH DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. WHILE
NEAR-GROUND SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO VEERED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN WARM SECTOR...FORECAST WIND PROFILES ALONG FRONT
INDICATE RELATIVELY STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN
40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...SETUP APPEARS TO FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 10/15/2009

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KLZK [150405]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 150405
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1104 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 SE GRIFFITHTOWN 34.04N 92.94W
10/09/2009 CLARK AR NWS STORM SURVEY

DOZENS OF LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES WERE KNOCKED DOWN.

0817 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE GRIFFITHTOWN 34.01N 92.90W
10/09/2009 CLARK AR NWS STORM SURVEY

QUITE A FEW LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWNED IN
THE AREA.

0840 AM TSTM WND DMG SHERIDAN 34.31N 92.41W
10/09/2009 GRANT AR NWS STORM SURVEY

SEVERAL LARGE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN...ALONG WITH SHINGLES
TORN OFF THE ROOFS OF SOME HOMES.

0845 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 S CROSS ROADS 34.20N 92.40W
10/09/2009 GRANT AR NWS STORM SURVEY

A NUMBER OF LARGE TREES WERE KNOCKED DOWN.

0850 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 S CROSS ROADS 34.14N 92.40W
10/09/2009 GRANT AR NWS STORM SURVEY

A LARGE TREE WAS KNOCKED DOWN.

0925 AM TSTM WND DMG FORDYCE 33.82N 92.41W
10/09/2009 DALLAS AR NWS STORM SURVEY

A LARGE TREE WAS KNOCKED DOWN.

0935 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 N TINSMAN 33.67N 92.35W
10/09/2009 CALHOUN AR NWS STORM SURVEY

SOME TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

0935 AM TSTM WND DMG 7 N TINSMAN 33.73N 92.35W
10/09/2009 CALHOUN AR NWS STORM SURVEY

A LARGE TREE WAS DOWNED.

0935 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 N TINSMAN 33.72N 92.35W
10/09/2009 CALHOUN AR NWS STORM SURVEY

A VERY LARGE TREE WAS KNOCKED DOWN.

0950 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 SE NEW EDINBURG 33.69N 92.18W
10/09/2009 BRADLEY AR NWS STORM SURVEY

A NUMBER OF LARGE TREES WERE DOWNED. ONE TREE FELL ONTO A
VEHICLE...CAUSING MINOR DAMAGE.

0955 AM TSTM WND DMG 7 NW WARREN 33.68N 92.16W
10/09/2009 BRADLEY AR NWS STORM SURVEY

A FEW LARGE TREES WERE DOWNED.

1005 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 SW RYE 33.71N 92.01W
10/09/2009 BRADLEY AR NWS STORM SURVEY

DOZENS OF TREES WERE DOWNED. ONE HOUSE SUSTAINED ROOF
DAMAGE FROM A FALLEN TREE. TIN WAS TORN OFF THE ROOFS OF
SEVERAL CHICKEN HOUSES. POWER LINES WERE ALSO KNOCKED
DOWN.

1005 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 N ROWELL 33.91N 91.98W
10/09/2009 CLEVELAND AR NWS STORM SURVEY

A LARGE TREE WAS KNOCKED DOWN.

1008 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW PANSY 33.83N 92.01W
10/09/2009 CLEVELAND AR NWS STORM SURVEY

A LARGE TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ONTO A HOUSE.

1010 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 N RYE 33.78N 91.98W
10/09/2009 CLEVELAND AR NWS STORM SURVEY

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWNED. SHINGLES WERE
ALSO BLOWN OFF SEVERAL HOUSES IN THE AREA.

&&
THESE ARE ADDITIONAL STORM REPORTS FROM FRIDAY OCTOBER 9TH...
COMPILED DURING A NWS STORM SURVEY ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS.
$$

44

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