SWODY2
SPC AC 150535
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CONUS ON FRIDAY. THE LEAD PORTION OF THE EASTERN STATES
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/APPALACHIANS...WHILE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET
STREAK REINFORCES THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL ASIDE
FROM THE FL PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH TX AND/OR
THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...
AS GRADUAL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/MODEST COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INFLUX WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS. WHILE
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY BE
HINDERED BY EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/RAINFALL...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AT LEAST MODERATE PREFRONTAL SURFACE
HEATING/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE TSTMS MAINLY THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL
AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO AS WELL.
..GUYER.. 10/15/2009
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