KEWX [180405]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 180405
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1005 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM FLOOD 5 N GONZALES 29.58N 97.45W
11/17/2007 GONZALES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FARM TO MARKET ROAD 794 FROM GONZALES TO NEAR HARWOOD IS
CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROAD.

0930 PM FLOOD 7 E FLATONIA 29.69N 96.99W
11/17/2007 FAYETTE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

MUCH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FLATONIA TO SCHULENBURG IS CLOSED
DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROAD.

0945 PM FLOOD 5 S LA GRANGE 29.84N 96.88W
11/17/2007 FAYETTE TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MUCH OF HIGHWAY 77 FROM LA GRANGE TO SCHULENBURG TO
CLOSED DUE TO WATER COVERING THE ROAD.

&&

$$

PM

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KMFR [180354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180354
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
754 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0753 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
11/17/2007 M2.19 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

7AM-7PM

&&

$$

SVEN

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KMFR [180230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180230
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
630 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.71W
11/17/2007 M1.06 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

SVEN

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KMFR [180229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180229
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
629 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE SCOTTSBURG 43.67N 123.81W
11/17/2007 M2.12 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

4PM TO 4PM

&&

$$

SVEN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2146

ACUS11 KWNS 180057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180056
TXZ000-180300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 180056Z - 180300Z

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING.
RECENT SFC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK WARM FRONT OR MOISTURE SURGE HAS
RETURNED WELL INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS NOW
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F. 00Z SOUNDING FROM CRP CLEARLY SAMPLES
THIS AIRMASS WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG
ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO A FEW WEAK
SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED JUST EAST OF SAT. ONE MAJOR IMPEDIMENT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE RELATIVELY
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY ROTATE AT TIMES...THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ULTIMATELY
HINDER ANY MEANINGFUL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL OR TORNADO THREAT.
EVEN SO...STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

.DARROW.. 11/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

29199792 30429689 30009577 29279507 28289769

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180047
SWODY1
SPC AC 180044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..HILL COUNTRY AND DEEP S TX EWD INTO SWRN LA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING SEWD
ACROSS TX WITH ATTENDANT ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASING ACROSS REGION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A RATHER MOIST AIR
MASS HAS RETURNED NWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN TX WITH 00Z CRP
SOUNDING OBSERVING A 100 MB MEANING MIXING RATIO OF 15 G/KG AND AN
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.

TSTMS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS THIS EVENING OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY WITH MORE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO DEEP S TX.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX EWD INTO SWRN
LA...IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING SEWD.

REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS INVOF OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WITH THE
STRONGER DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF
40-45 KT/ PERSISTING TONIGHT ALONG THE TX COAST. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THIS ZONE OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT EPISODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A
THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.

.MEAD.. 11/18/2007

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KMFR [171952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 171952
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1152 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1151 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E SIXES 42.81N 124.42W
11/17/2007 M3.10 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 7 AM

&&

$$

PETRUCEL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171945
SWODY1
SPC AC 171943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN TX...
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS LOCATED BENEATH STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW...ACCOMPANYING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING EWD ACROSS TX
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. EARLY AFTERNOON IR CLOUD IMAGERY
INDICATED A FEW COLDER CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN TO SE
TX WHICH WOULD SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. IN
THESE LOCATIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE GREATER PER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE
HEATING.

THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE TO FOCUS TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SRN LA SWWD TO S
TX...SUGGESTS WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA
OF CLOUDINESS WITH ATTENDANT SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER TROUGH
SPREADING EWD ATOP THE MOIST RETURN FLOW SHOULD AID IN FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION NNEWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX TO LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS. GIVEN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING
WITH HEIGHT...A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

.PETERS.. 11/17/2007

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KMFR [171752]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 171752
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
952 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0951 AM HEAVY RAIN SSW PORT ORFORD 42.75N 124.50W
11/17/2007 M2.02 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 930 AM

&&

$$

PETRUCEL

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KMFR [171733]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 171733
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
933 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE BANDON 43.12N 124.40W
11/17/2007 M1.81 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 830 AM

0925 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ENE MYRTLE POINT 43.07N 124.10W
11/17/2007 M1.95 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

15 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 9 AM

0925 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N COQUILLE 43.18N 124.16W
11/17/2007 M2.00 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 9 AM. ALSO REPORTED 2.70 INCHES
OF RAIN IN A 30 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

$$

PETRUCEL

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KMFR [171647]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 171647
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
846 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM HEAVY RAIN N ELKTON 43.63N 123.57W
11/17/2007 M1.50 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

THIS IS A 13 HOUR AMOUNT ENDING AT 8AM.

&&

$$

HOLTZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171558
SWODY1
SPC AC 171555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE NATION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY QUIESCENT WEATHER PATTERN. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF TX/LA WHERE SCT TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP /MOSTLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST/
AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW OF THESE TSTMS MAY
POSE A MARGINAL SVR THREAT ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.

..TX COASTAL PLAINS...
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER WEST TX...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH/EAST TX AND PORTIONS OF
LA THROUGH TONIGHT. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM BRO AND CRP INDICATED A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION /CENTERED AROUND 700 MB/ TO
PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS SO FAR THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HILL COUNTY INDICATES MID
LEVEL COOLING WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INTERACTING WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. THUS TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...
INSTABILITY WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW CLOUD COVER /PER VIS SAT
IMAGERY/...LOW LEVEL HEATING SHOULD BE RETARDED SUFFICIENTLY TO
PRECLUDE GREATER INSTABILITY. DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...
INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW /OVER 40 KTS/ SUGGESTS ISOLATED SVR
WIND/HAIL REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.

.CROSBIE/HALES.. 11/17/2007

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KMFR [171540]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 171540
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
740 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0739 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
11/17/2007 M2.31 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

7PM TO 7AM.

&&

$$

GLASER

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KMFR [171318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 171318
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
518 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE GOLD BEACH 42.45N 124.37W
11/17/2007 M2.64 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

5AM TO 5AM. WIND SOUTH 30 TO 40 MPH AT 5AM.

&&

$$

GLASER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171255
SWODY1
SPC AC 171253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
W TX UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL TX THIS EVENING
AND E TX EARLY SUNDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
POSITIVELY-TILTED AS IT IS GRADUALLY ABSORBED WITHIN CONFLUENT WLY
FLOW OVER THE SERN U.S. SFC REFLECTION OF TROUGH LIKELY WILL REMAIN
WEAK. DIFFUSE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY FILL OVER WRN/NRN TX...WHILE A WEAK
WAVE REFORMS NEWD FROM DEEP S TX TODAY...TO THE NWRN GULF EARLY
SUNDAY.

..SRN/CNTRL TX CSTL PLN...
SATELLITE PW AND SFC DATA SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE SPREADING NNE ALONG
THE LWR AND MIDDLE TX GULF CST THIS MORNING. THIS FEED SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPR SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AT THE SAME TIME...MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NE ACROSS THE
ERN THIRD OF TX.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE...WEAK COLD ADVECTION AT MID LVLS
AND MODEST SFC HEATING SHOULD BOOST SBCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS
AFTN ALONG THE LWR AND MIDDLE TX GULF CST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
NEAR-SFC BASED PARCELS TO BECOME POTENTIALLY BUOYANT AS LOW WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

LOW LVL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AS UPR SYSTEM ASSUMES AN
INCREASINGLY POSITIVE TILT. BUT 30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ON E SIDE OF TROUGH SHOULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG
THE LWR AND MIDDLE TX CSTL PLN INTO SE TX. OVERALL SETUP SUGGESTS
LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS...INCLUDING
A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BACK-BUILDING ACTIVITY...FROM ABOUT
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STORMS COULD YIELD ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINAL HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...IN ADDITION
TO HEAVY RAIN...BEFORE MOST MOVE OFF THE CST LATER TONIGHT.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/17/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170944
SWOD48
SPC AC 170943

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

..DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS -- SPECIFICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF -- IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 6...WITH A
LARGE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND EXPAND TO
COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH TIME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED -- AS A SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH
MOVES SWD OUT OF CANADA ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION -- SPREADING SLOWLY EWD FROM ERN PORTIONS OF TX DAY 4 /TUE.
NOV. 20/ TO FL DAYS 6-7 -- ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. EXTENT OF THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AREALLY...DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY. THUS WILL NOT
INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA ATTM.

.GOSS.. 11/17/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170726
SWODY3
SPC AC 170724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH VACATES THE ERN U.S. AND A SECOND MOVES ACROSS
SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION/SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS.
WHILE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD...COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

IN ANY CASE...MODEST WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
SHOULD PROVE INSUFFICIENT FOR APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION...WITH ANY
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE WRN GULF COAST
REGION.

.GOSS.. 11/17/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170642
SWODY2
SPC AC 170640

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN/DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME...AS A TROUGH REACHES THE E COAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WHILE A SECOND TROUGH REMAINS W OF THE W COAST
UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THE SMALLER SCALE...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE S CENTRAL
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR/WEAKEN WITH TIME...WHILE A SECOND FEATURE
MOVES ALONG THE S CENTRAL CANADA/N CENTRAL U.S. BORDER.

AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS...THOUGH A MORE MOIST/WEAKLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX AND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION -- INVOF WEAKENING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. WHILE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...DEGREE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED
SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.GOSS.. 11/17/2007

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KMFR [170614]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 170614
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1014 PM PST FRI NOV 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
11/16/2007 M1.62 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL 9PM PST THURSDAY TO 9PM PST FRIDAY. LOCATED
ALONG THE COOS RIVER.

&&

$$

LUTZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170540
SWODY1
SPC AC 170537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SOUTH TEXAS...

POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO TX LATER TODAY WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE TX COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES HAVE RESPONDED AND BECOME MORE SELY
OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF BASIN. LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO SUGGESTS MODIFICATION WHILE SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE WRN GULF
BUOYS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 60S. IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX SUCH THAT
NEAR-SFC BASED PARCELS SHOULD BECOME POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITHIN
WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...MODEST DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
30-40KT SHOULD RESULT IN ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
SCNTRL/SERN TX. SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST STORM ROTATION IS
POSSIBLE. LATEST THINKING IS MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN SFC TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL
COULD BE NOTED WITH STRONGER STORMS.

.DARROW/JEWELL.. 11/17/2007

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