SWODY1
SPC AC 180044
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2007
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..HILL COUNTRY AND DEEP S TX EWD INTO SWRN LA...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING SEWD
ACROSS TX WITH ATTENDANT ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASING ACROSS REGION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A RATHER MOIST AIR
MASS HAS RETURNED NWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN TX WITH 00Z CRP
SOUNDING OBSERVING A 100 MB MEANING MIXING RATIO OF 15 G/KG AND AN
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
TSTMS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS THIS EVENING OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY WITH MORE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO DEEP S TX.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX EWD INTO SWRN
LA...IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING SEWD.
REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS INVOF OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WITH THE
STRONGER DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF
40-45 KT/ PERSISTING TONIGHT ALONG THE TX COAST. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THIS ZONE OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT EPISODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A
THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.
.MEAD.. 11/18/2007
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