MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2013

ACUS11 KWNS 140353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140352
MTZ000-140445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740...

VALID 140352Z - 140445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740
CONTINUES.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE CONVECTION ONGOING
IN FAR ERN MT. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE THREATS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH TIME.
ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE NORTH DAKOTA
STATE-LINE. A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE ONGOING
SEVERE THREAT IN NE MT FOR PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 09/14/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...

LAT...LON 47380413 47080499 47090573 47220606 47730645 48230644
48740623 48960565 49050520 48970452 48650418 48450416
47380413

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KFWD [140252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 140252
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
952 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 E EUREKA 32.02N 96.21W
09/13/2009 NAVARRO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS ROADS IN EASTERN NAVARRO COUNTY CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WATER. TXDOT HAS SHUT DOWN NUMEROUS ROADS.

$$

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KGGW [140247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KGGW 140247
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
847 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 2 S CROW ROCK 46.88N 106.07W
09/13/2009 E0.75 INCH PRAIRIE MT PUBLIC

0631 PM HAIL 11 SW MILDRED 46.56N 105.12W
09/13/2009 E1.75 INCH PRAIRIE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AND SMALLER

0640 PM HAIL 13 N TERRY 46.98N 105.31W
09/13/2009 E1.75 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM HAIL 10 N TERRY 46.94N 105.31W
09/13/2009 E1.75 INCH PRAIRIE MT PUBLIC

0700 PM HAIL 2 SE MILDRED 46.66N 104.93W
09/13/2009 E1.25 INCH PRAIRIE MT PUBLIC

MOSTLY PENNY SIZED HAIL BUT MIXED WITH QUARTER AND HALF
DOLLAR SIZED HAIL

0707 PM HAIL 13 SSW LINDSAY 47.04N 105.26W
09/13/2009 E1.75 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL MIXED WITH NICKEL AND DIME SIZED

0720 PM HAIL 11 NE MILDRED 46.79N 104.79W
09/13/2009 E1.00 INCH PRAIRIE MT PUBLIC

MOSTLY NICKEL WITH SOME QUARTER SIZED HAIL MIXED IN

0750 PM HAIL 11 N JORDAN 47.48N 106.91W
09/13/2009 E1.75 INCH GARFIELD MT PUBLIC

MOSTLY PEA SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL
STONES

0805 PM HAIL 8 N LINDSAY 47.33N 105.15W
09/13/2009 E0.75 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1.75IN OF RAINFALL IN 15 MINUTES

&&

$$

DSHALLEN

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KGGW [140242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 140242
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM HAIL 8 N LINDSAY 47.33N 105.15W
09/13/2009 E0.75 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1.75IN OF RAINFALL IN 15 MINUTES

&&

$$

DSHALLEN

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KGGW [140240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 140240
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
840 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 2 S CROW ROCK 46.88N 106.07W
09/13/2009 E0.75 INCH PRAIRIE MT PUBLIC

&&

$$

DSHALLEN

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KPIH [140207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 140207
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
807 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 N POCATELLO 42.93N 112.47W
09/13/2009 BANNOCK ID PUBLIC

BUILDING UNDER CONSTRUCTION KNOCKED OVER. TIME OF EVENT
UNKNOWN AT PRESENT.

&&

$$

DSH

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KGGW [140200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 140200
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
800 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 PM HAIL 11 N JORDAN 47.48N 106.91W
09/13/2009 E1.75 INCH GARFIELD MT PUBLIC

MOSTLY PEA SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL
STONES

&&

$$

DSHALLEN

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KGGW [140155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 140155
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
755 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM HAIL 11 NE MILDRED 46.79N 104.79W
09/13/2009 E1.00 INCH PRAIRIE MT PUBLIC

MOSTLY NICKEL WITH SOME QUARTER SIZED HAIL MIXED IN

&&

$$

DSHALLEN

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KFWD [140152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 140152
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
852 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM FLOOD CAMERON 30.85N 96.97W
09/13/2009 MILAM TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 COUNTY ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER/RESIDUAL
FLOODING.

$$

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KGGW [140130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 140130
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
730 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HAIL 2 SE MILDRED 46.66N 104.93W
09/13/2009 E1.25 INCH PRAIRIE MT PUBLIC

MOSTLY PENNY SIZED HAIL BUT MIXED WITH QUARTER AND HALF
DOLLAR SIZED HAIL

&&

$$

DSHALLEN

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KGGW [140128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 140128
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
728 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0707 PM HAIL 13 SSW LINDSAY 47.04N 105.26W
09/13/2009 E1.75 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL MIXED WITH NICKEL AND DIME SIZED

&&

$$

DSHALLEN

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KGGW [140123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 140123
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
723 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HAIL 13 N TERRY 46.98N 105.31W
09/13/2009 E1.75 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DSHALLEN

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KDDC [140106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 140106
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
806 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM FLOOD 9 WNW MEDICINE LODGE 37.34N 98.73W
09/13/2009 BARBER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

FOREST CITY ROAD WAS CLOSED ABOUT 9 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF MEDICINE LODGE, FROM THE MEDICINE LODGE RIVER BEING
OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

$$

BURKE

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KGGW [140052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 140052
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
652 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM HAIL 10 N TERRY 46.94N 105.31W
09/13/2009 E1.75 INCH PRAIRIE MT PUBLIC

&&

$$

DSHALLEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140048
SWODY1
SPC AC 140044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PART OF ERN MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL GULF STATES...

...ERN MT...

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z GGW SOUNDING APPEARS
TO BE A REPRESENTATIVE PROXY FOR ONGOING STORMS...FEATURING STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AFTER MODIFYING SURFACE
DEWPOINT TO LOWER 50S. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
ATTENDANT TO UPPER SYSTEM AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR...
ENVIRONMENT OVER NERN MT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH FROM S-N TONIGHT AS STORMS
EITHER MOVE INTO SASKATCHEWAN OR WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS.

...CNTRL GULF STATES...

EVENING MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SURFACE LOW NEAR UTS NEWD THROUGH THE MS DELTA INTO NRN AL. A
MARINE OR SECONDARY WARM FRONT WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM VICINITY OF
SURFACE LOW EWD INTO CNTRL LA AND THEN SEWD THROUGH SERN LA. AIR
MASS ALONG AND S OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH 00Z LCH/LIX/JAN SOUNDINGS OBSERVING PW VALUES AOA 2
INCHES...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. SUBTLE DARKENING OVER
THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO MAY SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF AN ADDITIONAL
IMPULSE/JET STREAK THAT COULD IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS IS
GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH LATEST RUC/GFS GUIDANCE WHICH INDUCE A
30-35 KT SLY LLJ OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. 00Z LIX/LCH SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MODEST /30-35
KT/ MIDLEVEL FLOW...AND GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...WARM SECTOR HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS
CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR TWO OVERNIGHT.

..MEAD.. 09/14/2009

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KGGW [140037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 140037
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
637 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0631 PM HAIL 11 SW MILDRED 46.56N 105.12W
09/13/2009 E1.75 INCH PRAIRIE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AND SMALLER

&&

$$

DSHALLEN

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KPIH [140034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 140034
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
634 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0622 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE POCATELLO 42.84N 112.41W
09/13/2009 BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO INCH LIMBS BREAKING OFF TREES.

&&

$$

DSH

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2012

ACUS11 KWNS 140029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140029
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-140200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740...

VALID 140029Z - 140200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740
CONTINUES.

A HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN MT THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE
SEVERE THREATS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER
BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN ERN MT ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY A LOBE OF VORTICITY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND RUC
ANALYSIS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN CNTRL MT. LIFT IS
ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A LOW-LEVEL JET
LOCATED NEAR THE ND AND MT STATE-LINE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
A MID-LEVEL JET OVER SRN MT IS HELPING TO CREATE VERTICAL SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL. ROTATING STORMS MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGER HAIL. AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY LINE-SEGMENTS THAN CAN ORGANIZE LATER THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 09/14/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 48980823 47990842 47890886 47720885 47610855 47580793
47040798 46490778 46500725 46280697 45670686 45670667
45160672 45160630 45780622 45770496 46140492 46130457
46020454 46020437 45950436 45950415 45830410 45830404
48990404 49000823 48980823

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KBYZ [140027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 140027
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
627 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM HAIL 12 NNE MILES CITY 46.57N 105.74W
09/13/2009 E1.75 INCH CUSTER MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

CAMPBELL

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KFWD [140007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 140007
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
706 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM FLOOD DUNCANVILLE 32.65N 96.90W
09/13/2009 DALLAS TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGH WATER AND ROAD CLOSURES CONTINUE IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS SW DALLAS COUNTY

$$

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KBYZ [132333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 132333
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
533 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM HAIL 7 N MILES CITY 46.51N 105.84W
09/13/2009 E1.00 INCH CUSTER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CAMPBELL

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KBOU [132319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 132319
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
519 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HAIL 4 SSE PINECLIFFE 39.88N 105.39W
09/13/2009 M1.00 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0445 PM HAIL 3 SE PINECLIFFE 39.90N 105.38W
09/13/2009 M1.25 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND TO A DEPTH OF ONE INCH

&&

$$

JK

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KBOU [132258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 132258
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
458 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HAIL 3 SE PINECLIFFE 39.90N 105.38W
09/13/2009 M0.75 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND TO A DEPTH OF ONE INCH

0450 PM HAIL 4 SSE PINECLIFFE 39.88N 105.39W
09/13/2009 M1.00 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JK

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 740

WWUS20 KWNS 132035
SEL0
SPC WW 132035
MTZ000-140400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
GLASGOW MONTANA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF MILES CITY MONTANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING NNWWD THRU CENTRAL MT
WITH A 35-40KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET ERN MT. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE ERN MT AND WITH 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT 1-2
HOURS. INITIALLY STORMS WILL FORM ECENTRAL MT THEN MOVE N/NEWD THRU
THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THREAT OF BOTH LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 18030.

...HALES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 132014
SWODY1
SPC AC 132012

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...

CORRECTED LABEL PLACEMENT ON TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...PARTS OF E/SE TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A DRY SLOT ROTATING NWD THROUGH SERN
TX...ESE OF THE N TX CLOSED LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TSTMS HAVE
FORMED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD THROUGH
SERN TX TO SWRN LA. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY WITH AMBIENT SURFACE VORTICITY ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER LOW
SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THUS...LOW TORNADO
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED WWD INTO SERN TX.

FARTHER E...THE EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY
WARM FRONT HAD MOVED FARTHER INLAND FROM NRN LA TO CENTRAL MS AND
SRN AL...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND S OF THIS
BOUNDARY. MODELS SUGGEST THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NWD...WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMING REFOCUSED
ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM SRN LA TO FAR SWRN
MS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

...ERN MT...
INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR INTO THIS EVENING SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. EARLY
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WY...WITH STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS EXTENDING NNEWD THROUGH ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS. THIS SURFACE LOW
ATTENDANT TO A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NWD INTO ERN MT WHILE
THE UPPER FEATURE REACHES SWRN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z MONDAY.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED AIR MASS IS UNDERGOING DESTABILIZATION
WITH THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50
F/...SURFACE HEATING BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AS STRENGTHENING SSELY LLJ
ADVECTS SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S INTO ERN MT BY EARLY
EVENING AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREAD NWD ACROSS ERN MT.
FORECAST FOR SEVERE THREAT IS ON TRACK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011.

..PETERS.. 09/13/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009/

...ERN MT...

COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER SCENTRAL MT ATTM IS HEADING BACK N AGAIN INTO
CANADA BY 12Z MON. INITIALLY ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG
CONVECTION...BUT BY THIS EVENING COMBINATION OF UPPER COLD
POOL...40KT SSELY LLJ TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ERN
MT...AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING E OF UPPER LOW WILL PUT IN PLACE
PARAMETERS FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE NEWD IN
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR NOT ONLY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT POTENTIALLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND LARGER HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DEVELOP NWD BY LATE EVENING INTO CANADA WITH THREAT ENDING OVER ERN
MT.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SETUP OVER THE WRN/CNTRL GULF CST REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THAT
ON SAT. HOWEVER A MORE DECIDED NWD ADVANCE OF THE W/E WARM
FRONT NOW OVER THE NRN GULF RELATIVE TO SAT. BY LATE THIS AFTN THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR LFK EWD THROUGH CNTRL LA INTO S
CNTRL MS. ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW VERY RICH MOISTURE /SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F AND PW AOA 2.00 INCHES/ TO OVERSPREAD
AREAS ALONG AND N OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

MID LVL SSWLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH 700-500
MB FLOW EXPECTED TO REACH 25-30 KTS. LOW-LVL WINDS...HOWEVER...
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AS ANY DEEPENING OF SFC LOW NOW OVER SE TX
IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED
WAA WITH RICH MOISTURE AND LOW-LVL VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORM CLUSTERS NEAR WARM FRONT. THESE
MAY EXHIBIT PERIODIC LOW LVL ROTATION...AND COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
A FEW TORNADOES AND/OR STG WIND GUSTS.

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 132002
SWODY1
SPC AC 131959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...

...PARTS OF E/SE TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A DRY SLOT ROTATING NWD THROUGH SERN
TX...ESE OF THE N TX CLOSED LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TSTMS HAVE
FORMED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD THROUGH
SERN TX TO SWRN LA. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY WITH AMBIENT SURFACE VORTICITY ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER LOW
SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THUS...LOW TORNADO
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED WWD INTO SERN TX.

FARTHER E...THE EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY
WARM FRONT HAD MOVED FARTHER INLAND FROM NRN LA TO CENTRAL MS AND
SRN AL...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND S OF THIS
BOUNDARY. MODELS SUGGEST THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NWD...WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMING REFOCUSED
ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM SRN LA TO FAR SWRN
MS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

...ERN MT...
INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR INTO THIS EVENING SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. EARLY
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WY...WITH STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS EXTENDING NNEWD THROUGH ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS. THIS SURFACE LOW
ATTENDANT TO A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NWD INTO ERN MT WHILE
THE UPPER FEATURE REACHES SWRN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z MONDAY.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED AIR MASS IS UNDERGOING DESTABILIZATION
WITH THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50
F/...SURFACE HEATING BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AS STRENGTHENING SSELY LLJ
ADVECTS SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S INTO ERN MT BY EARLY
EVENING AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREAD NWD ACROSS ERN MT.
FORECAST FOR SEVERE THREAT IS ON TRACK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011.

..PETERS.. 09/13/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009/

...ERN MT...

COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER SCENTRAL MT ATTM IS HEADING BACK N AGAIN INTO
CANADA BY 12Z MON. INITIALLY ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG
CONVECTION...BUT BY THIS EVENING COMBINATION OF UPPER COLD
POOL...40KT SSELY LLJ TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ERN
MT...AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING E OF UPPER LOW WILL PUT IN PLACE
PARAMETERS FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE NEWD IN
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR NOT ONLY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT POTENTIALLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND LARGER HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DEVELOP NWD BY LATE EVENING INTO CANADA WITH THREAT ENDING OVER ERN
MT.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SETUP OVER THE WRN/CNTRL GULF CST REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THAT
ON SAT. HOWEVER A MORE DECIDED NWD ADVANCE OF THE W/E WARM
FRONT NOW OVER THE NRN GULF RELATIVE TO SAT. BY LATE THIS AFTN THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR LFK EWD THROUGH CNTRL LA INTO S
CNTRL MS. ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW VERY RICH MOISTURE /SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F AND PW AOA 2.00 INCHES/ TO OVERSPREAD
AREAS ALONG AND N OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

MID LVL SSWLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH 700-500
MB FLOW EXPECTED TO REACH 25-30 KTS. LOW-LVL WINDS...HOWEVER...
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AS ANY DEEPENING OF SFC LOW NOW OVER SE TX
IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED
WAA WITH RICH MOISTURE AND LOW-LVL VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORM CLUSTERS NEAR WARM FRONT. THESE
MAY EXHIBIT PERIODIC LOW LVL ROTATION...AND COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
A FEW TORNADOES AND/OR STG WIND GUSTS.

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KFWD [132001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 132001
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM FLOOD CAMERON 30.85N 96.97W
09/13/2009 MILAM TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTY DUE TO
HIGH WATER

$$

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KSHV [132000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 132000
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM LIGHTNING WEST MONROE 32.51N 92.15W
09/13/2009 OUACHITA LA BROADCAST MEDIA

FIRE DEPT CONFIRMED HOUSE STRUCK...NO INJURIES. TIME IS
APPROXIMATE

&&

$$

24

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2011

ACUS11 KWNS 131945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131944
MTZ000-132045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131944Z - 132045Z

SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MT. TORNADO WATCH
MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LIKELY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
NNWWD ACROSS SCNTRL INTO CNTRL MT WITH COLDEST POCKET OF MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD ERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS MID
LEVEL COOLING IS COINCIDENT WITH FAIRLY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING THAT HAS STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REMOVED MOST OF
CIN HOLDING BACK SFC-BASED CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST RADAR
DATA...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGEST A ZONE OF UVV IS
LIFTING NWD ACROSS ERN MT. CURRENT THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED...AND MORE THAN
ADEQUATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH GIVEN STRONG SHEAR FOR POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 09/13/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 48670828 48870455 45480412 45200691 46830847 48670828

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KLIX [131923]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 131923
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
223 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0209 PM WATER SPOUT GULFPORT 30.39N 89.07W
09/13/2009 HARRISON MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

PUBLIC SIGHTING FROM TEAGARDEN ROAD AND U.S. HIGHWAY 90
AREA. KGPT AIRPORT OBSERVER AUGMENTED ASOS WATERSPOUT
BEGAN 209PM CDT...ENDED 213 PM CDT.

&&

$$

24/RR

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KLIX [131844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 131844
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
144 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0142 PM WATER SPOUT 4 SW WAVELAND 30.25N 89.43W
09/13/2009 HANCOCK MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATERSPOUT SIGHTED FROM BEACH BLVD NEAR SILVER SLIPPER
CASINO. KLIX WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS ROTATING CELL APPROX 2
MILES SSW OF BAYOU CLEAR...MOVING ENE. REPORTED BY
HANCOCK 911.

&&

$$

24/RR

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KLIX [131812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 131812
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
112 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1146 AM TSTM WND GST NEW ORLEANS 29.97N 90.08W
09/13/2009 M51.00 MPH ORLEANS LA ASOS

FROM WET MICROBURST AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT.

1220 PM LIGHTNING NEW ORLEANS 29.97N 90.08W
09/13/2009 ORLEANS LA EMERGENCY MNGR

WICKER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 2011 BIENVILLE STREET STRUCK
BY LIGHTNING. TIME ESTIMATED.

1230 PM FLASH FLOOD NEW ORLEANS 29.97N 90.08W
09/13/2009 ORLEANS LA EMERGENCY MNGR

A COUPLE OF VEHICLES STRANDED IN FLOODED UNDERPASS AT
DOWNMAN ROAD AND HAYNES BLVD. SOME STREET FLOODING NEAR
LAKEFRONT AIRPORT.

&&

$$

24/RR

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131732
SWODY2
SPC AC 131729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ENEWD ON MONDAY FROM N TX/OK
TOWARD THE OZARKS REGION OF SRN MO/AR. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS LA. AT 12Z MONDAY...A SURFACE WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN LA ESEWD TO SWRN MS AND INTO THE
NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY N/NEWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...REACHING
SERN AR TO THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z TUESDAY. DESPITE THE
CONTINUATION OF WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS AREA...TROPICAL
MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOWER 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST
WEAK DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TSTMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST REGION...E/SE OF
UPPER LOW...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT...SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ATTAIN
ROTATION WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

...ERN NV/UT/NRN AZ...
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INLAND ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST DURING SECOND
HALF OF DAY 1 PERIOD WILL DEAMPLIFY ON MONDAY AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER LEVEL FLOW. COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREADING EWD ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER... LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD TEND TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN MID-UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS REGION
WILL SUPPORT TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITHIN BASE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD PROMOTE STRONGER SHEAR FROM SRN/ERN NV INTO NRN AZ AND
UT. THIS SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL...
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS...WHILE 30-40
DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WEAK
INSTABILITY...THIS OUTLOOK WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS.. 09/13/2009

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KFWD [131712]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 131712
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1212 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM FLOOD MANSFIELD 32.57N 97.13W
09/13/2009 TARRANT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

VEHICLE IN HIGH WATER. RESCUE IN PROGRESS.

$$

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KFGZ [131645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131645
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM FLASH FLOOD BRIDGEPORT 34.72N 111.99W
09/12/2009 YAVAPAI AZ FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

AT 3800 S ZALESKY RD...2-3 FEET OF WATER FLOWING THROUGH
A LOW WATER CROSSING TRAPPED ONE CAR. A SWIFT WATER
RESCUE WAS PERFORMED ON THE ONLY OCCUPANT.

&&

$$

DANL

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KFWD [131609]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 131609
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1106 AM FLASH FLOOD DALLAS 32.77N 96.78W
09/13/2009 DALLAS TX NWS EMPLOYEE

I-45 AT SIMPSON STEWART...ROAD IMPASSABLE...BARRICADES
REQUESTED

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131603
SWODY1
SPC AC 131600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF ERN MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...ERN MT...

COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER SCENTRAL MT ATTM IS HEADING BACK N AGAIN INTO
CANADA BY 12Z MON. INITIALLY ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG
CONVECTION...BUT BY THIS EVENING COMBINATION OF UPPER COLD
POOL...40KT SSELY LLJ TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ERN
MT...AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING E OF UPPER LOW WILL PUT IN PLACE
PARAMETERS FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE NEWD IN
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR NOT ONLY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT POTENTIALLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND LARGER HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DEVELOP NWD BY LATE EVENING INTO CANADA WITH THREAT ENDING OVER ERN
MT.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SETUP OVER THE WRN/CNTRL GULF CST REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THAT
ON SAT. HOWEVER A MORE DECIDED NWD ADVANCE OF THE W/E WARM
FRONT NOW OVER THE NRN GULF RELATIVE TO SAT. BY LATE THIS AFTN THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR LFK EWD THROUGH CNTRL LA INTO S
CNTRL MS. ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW VERY RICH MOISTURE /SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F AND PW AOA 2.00 INCHES/ TO OVERSPREAD
AREAS ALONG AND N OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

MID LVL SSWLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH 700-500
MB FLOW EXPECTED TO REACH 25-30 KTS. LOW-LVL WINDS...HOWEVER...
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AS ANY DEEPENING OF SFC LOW NOW OVER SE TX
IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED
WAA WITH RICH MOISTURE AND LOW-LVL VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORM CLUSTERS NEAR WARM FRONT. THESE
MAY EXHIBIT PERIODIC LOW LVL ROTATION...AND COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
A FEW TORNADOES AND/OR STG WIND GUSTS.

..HALES/GRAMS.. 09/13/2009

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KFWD [131547]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 131547
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1047 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1046 AM FLOOD ARLINGTON 32.73N 97.12W
09/13/2009 TARRANT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES CONTINUE.

$$

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KFWD [131531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 131531
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1031 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 AM FLASH FLOOD FERRIS 32.53N 96.67W
09/13/2009 ELLIS TX NWS EMPLOYEE

HIGH WATER RESCUE IN PROGRESS BLUFF SPRINGS RD & HILL RD

$$

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KFWD [131526]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 131526
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1026 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1017 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 E DE SOTO 32.58N 96.80W
09/13/2009 DALLAS TX NWS EMPLOYEE

HIGH WATER RESCUE IN PROGRESS...3 PEOPLE IN VEHICLE

$$

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KFWD [131505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 131505
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1005 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM FLOOD MANSFIELD 32.57N 97.13W
09/13/2009 TARRANT TX PUBLIC

WALNUT CREEK OUT OF IT BANKS NEAR HWY 287 IN MANSFIELD

$$

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KFWD [131501]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 131501
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1001 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD ITALY 32.18N 96.88W
09/13/2009 ELLIS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER RISING OVER HWY 77 NEAR ITALY

$$

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KFWD [131500]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 131500
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0958 AM FLASH FLOOD 8 N WAXAHACHIE 32.52N 96.85W
09/13/2009 ELLIS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER RISING OVER I-35 NEAR MILE MARKER 39

$$

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KFWD [131453]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 131453
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
953 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0952 AM FLASH FLOOD AXTELL 31.67N 96.97W
09/13/2009 MCLENNAN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROAD CLOSURES NEAR AXTELL AND SPRING LAKE

$$

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KBOX [131441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 131441
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1041 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0646 PM FLOOD BOURNE 41.73N 70.61W
09/12/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

SEVERAL SIDE STREETS FLOODED ALONG SCENIC HIGHWAY.

0703 PM FLOOD BOURNE 41.73N 70.61W
09/12/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

ROUTE 130 FLOODED WITH UP TO 8 INCHES OF WATER.

0722 PM LIGHTNING PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
09/12/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

BUILDING STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AT CAMP CACHALOT...POSSIBLY
INJURING A CHILD.

0724 PM FLOOD PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
09/12/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

2 FEET OF WATER ON LUNDS WAY.

0724 PM FLOOD PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
09/12/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

2 CARS TUCK IN FLOOD WATERS ON POND ROAD.

0744 PM FLOOD PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
09/12/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

NAMELOC ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. SEVERAL CARS STUCK
IN FLOOD WATERS ON RAYMOND ROAD.

0749 PM FLOOD 2 SW BOURNE 41.71N 70.64W
09/12/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED WITH CARS DISABLED IN ONSET.

0750 PM FLOOD SANDWICH 41.76N 70.50W
09/12/2009 BARNSTABLE MA NWS EMPLOYEE

TWO FEET OF WATER ON AN AREA ROADWAY IN SANDWICH.

0758 PM FLOOD PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
09/12/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

HEDGES POND ROAD...WINDWARD...AND SOUTH WIND DRIVES ALL
IMPASSIBLE.

0758 PM FLOOD 2 SW BOURNE 41.71N 70.64W
09/12/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

ONSET MOBILE HOME PARK FLOODED OUT.

0811 PM FLOOD WAREHAM 41.75N 70.72W
09/12/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

LAKE AVENUE PARTIALLY WASHED OUT.

0812 PM FLOOD BOURNE 41.73N 70.61W
09/12/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

3 FEET OF WATER ON ST. MARGARETS STREET.

0812 PM HEAVY RAIN BOURNE 41.73N 70.61W
09/12/2009 M6.00 INCH BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

MEASURED IN BUZZARDS BAY SECTION OF BOURNE...EVENT TOTAL.

0829 PM FLOOD BOURNE 41.73N 70.61W
09/12/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

BUZZARDS BAY DRIVE FLOODED...ALONG WITH SEVERAL BASEMENTS
AND A FEW BUSINESSES.

0900 PM FLASH FLOOD BOURNE 41.73N 70.61W
09/12/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

BOURNEDALE ROAD ON THE BOURNE/PLYMOUTH LINE HAS A SECTION
OF PAVEMENT WASHED OUT.

&&

$$

MEKSTER

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KFWD [131420]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 131420
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
920 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 AM FLASH FLOOD ALVARADO 32.40N 97.22W
09/13/2009 JOHNSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROAD CLOSURES CONTINUE....NUMEROUS PROBLEM SPOTS IN
COUNTY.

$$

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KFWD [131411]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 131411
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
911 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 AM FLOOD CAMERON 30.85N 96.97W
09/13/2009 MILAM TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROAD CLOSURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MILAM COUNTY

$$

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KFWD [130840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 130840
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0339 AM FLASH FLOOD ROCKDALE 30.65N 97.00W
09/13/2009 MILAM TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THE CITY OF ROCKDALE. NUMEROUS
STREETS CLOSED AND HIGHWAY 79 IS CLOSED WEST OF ROCKDALE.

$$

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KKEY [130818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 130818
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
418 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 AM TSTM WND GST 5 S MARATHON 24.63N 81.11W
09/13/2009 M45 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A THUNDERSTORM GENERATED A WIND GUST OF 39 KNOTS AT
SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT.

0349 AM TSTM WND GST 2 NW LONG KEY 24.84N 80.86W
09/13/2009 E51 MPH GMZ031 FL C-MAN STATION

A THUNDERSTORM DELIVERED A WIND GUST OF 44 KNOTS AT LONG
KEY LIGHT.

0411 AM TSTM WND GST LONG KEY 24.82N 80.83W
09/13/2009 M40 MPH MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL CO-OP OBSERVER

A THUNDERSTORM GENERATED A WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS AT THE
LONG KEY WEATHER STATION AT THE FLORIDA KEYS ACQUEDUCT
AUTHORITY PUMP STATION.

&&

$$

AALBANES

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130723
SWODY3
SPC AC 130720

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST FOR DAY 3...AS THE
LOW OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. CONTINUES DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD...AND
LIKEWISE WITH THE LOW OVER UT. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM SOME
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NERN U.S. TROUGH...LARGE-SCALE/LONGWAVE RIDGING
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS.

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER THE
ROCKIES...AHEAD OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS UT...AND
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. IN BOTH REGIONS...LIMITED SHEAR AND/OR
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 09/13/2009

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KKEY [130608]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 130608
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
207 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 AM TSTM WND GST KEY WEST 24.56N 81.78W
09/13/2009 M48 MPH LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL COAST GUARD

A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 41.5 KNOTS WAS RECORDED AT
THE KEY WEST COAST GUARD SENSOR.

&&

$$

AALBANES

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130546
SWODY2
SPC AC 130545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE/LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD...BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND A
SECOND OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
HOWEVER...SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES ARE FORECAST -- INCLUDING
THREE SEPARATE MID-LEVEL LOWS. THE FIRST -- PROGGED TO DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL U.S. -- WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE
LOW INVOF SRN LA. THIS LOW...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SECOND LOW IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SHIFTING NWD OUT OF MT AND ACROSS SRN ALBERTA. THE THIRD
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CA AND INTO NV THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. OVERNIGHT...THE FEATURE SHOULD EVOLVE
MORE INTO A CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW...MOVING INTO UT THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH/LOW SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST --
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A VERY LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION INVOF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WHERE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IS PROGGED. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SHEAR
NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...AN ISOLATED
STRONGER/ROTATING STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FARTHER W ACROSS UT
AND VICINITY...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER FEATURE. HOWEVER...ATTM
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LIMITED...PRECLUDING FOR NOW THE
INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..GOSS.. 09/13/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130546
SWODY1
SPC AC 130543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER ERN MT...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY RETROGRADING NWWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT MORE RAPIDLY NWD TODAY /THROUGH MT/ IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACH OF PROGRESSIVE...UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC
COAST. IN CONTRAST...A MORE STAGNANT AIRFLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
OVER THE SRN STATES...PUNCTUATED BY UPPER LOW OVER TX/OK. A PV
ANOMALY IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM THE TX COAST
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...LIKELY FOCUSING A LARGE AREA OF TSTMS
OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

13/00Z REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
LOWEST 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 6-8 G/KG. HOWEVER...STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD POOL /AROUND -16 C AT 500
MB/ OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM WY NWD INTO MT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH EML MAY
DELAY TSTM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...WHEN STORMS DEVELOP...THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND 40-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING HAIL.

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT OF SATURDAY...
FEATURING AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND PRIMARY UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
SUPPORT WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY. ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT MAY MOVE FURTHER INLAND /COMPARED TO SAT/...ALLOWING A
QUITE MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S/ AIR MASS TO DEVELOP
NWD THROUGH THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN AOB MOIST
ADIABATIC...THOUGH THE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT NEAR-GROUND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
COMPARABLY WEAKER. AS SUCH...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG STORM CLUSTERS WHICH MAY EXHIBIT EPISODIC UPDRAFT ROTATION.
WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE...THIS
THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

..MEAD/JEWELL.. 09/13/2009

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