SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131944
MTZ000-132045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131944Z - 132045Z
SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MT. TORNADO WATCH
MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LIKELY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
NNWWD ACROSS SCNTRL INTO CNTRL MT WITH COLDEST POCKET OF MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD ERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS MID
LEVEL COOLING IS COINCIDENT WITH FAIRLY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING THAT HAS STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REMOVED MOST OF
CIN HOLDING BACK SFC-BASED CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST RADAR
DATA...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGEST A ZONE OF UVV IS
LIFTING NWD ACROSS ERN MT. CURRENT THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED...AND MORE THAN
ADEQUATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH GIVEN STRONG SHEAR FOR POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.
..DARROW.. 09/13/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 48670828 48870455 45480412 45200691 46830847 48670828
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