KLWX [302033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 302033
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
433 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0433 PM FLASH FLOOD FAIRFAX 38.85N 77.36W
09/30/2010 FAIRFAX VA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION CLOSED AT BRITTEN DR AND ROUTE 1

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000987

$$

HAS

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KLWX [302033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 302033
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
432 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM FLASH FLOOD FAIRFAX 38.85N 77.36W
09/30/2010 FAIRFAX VA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION CLOSED AT OLD COURTHOUSE ROAD AND BURRLE
CT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000986

$$

HAS

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KLWX [302032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 302032
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
432 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM FLASH FLOOD FAIRFAX 38.85N 77.36W
09/30/2010 FAIRFAX VA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION CLOSED AT WAYNESWOOD BLVD AND DEWOLF

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000985

$$

HAS

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KLWX [302031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 302031
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
431 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0347 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSW PINE VIEW 38.43N 77.70W
09/30/2010 FAUQUIER VA PUBLIC

BRANCHES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000983

$$

KRAMAR

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KALY [302028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 302028
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0417 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG EAST DUMMERSTON 42.93N 72.55W
09/30/2010 WINDHAM VT TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL BRANCHES DOWN ON WIRES. POWER OUTAGES REPORTED.

&&

$$

KLIPTON

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KLWX [302013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 302013
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
413 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0408 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NW SUDLEY SPRINGS 38.85N 77.55W
09/30/2010 PRINCE WILLIAM VA 911 CALL CENTER

GUM SPRINGS CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000982

$$

SBK

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KLWX [302002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 302002
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
402 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WSW WILDCAT CORNER 38.28N 77.39W
09/30/2010 STAFFORD VA 911 CALL CENTER

FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ON JEFFERSON DAVIS HIGHWAY AT
TELEGRAPH ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000981

$$

SBK

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KLWX [301959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 301959
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNE AQUIA 38.49N 77.38W
09/30/2010 STAFFORD VA 911 CALL CENTER

FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ON 3500 BLOCK OF JEFFERSON
DAVIS HIGHWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000980

$$

SBK

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KRNK [301955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KRNK 301955
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1041 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 WSW SAGO 36.88N 79.67W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SNOW CREEK FLOODED AND CLOSED BELCHER RD

&&

$$

JJACKSON

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KRNK [301954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 301954
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
354 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1041 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 W SAGO 36.88N 79.69W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SNOW CREEK WASHED OUT DANBURY RD

&&

$$

JJACKSON

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KLWX [301952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 301952
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM FLASH FLOOD POTOMAC HILLS 38.49N 77.39W
09/30/2010 STAFFORD VA 911 CALL CENTER

ROUTE 1 CLOSED AT ACADIA STREET DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000979

$$

SBK

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KRNK [301951]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 301951
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
351 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1041 AM FLOOD 2 WSW SAGO 36.88N 79.67W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SNOW CREEK FLOODED AND CLOSED BELCHER RD

&&

$$

JJACKSON

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KLWX [301951]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 301951
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM FLASH FLOOD SEVEN LAKES 38.46N 77.52W
09/30/2010 STAFFORD VA 911 CALL CENTER

RUFFIAN DRIVE CLOSED IN VICINITY OF RIVA RIDGE DRIVE
DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000978

$$

SBK

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KLWX [301949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 301949
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
348 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM FLASH FLOOD WOODLAND 38.33N 77.45W
09/30/2010 STAFFORD VA 911 CALL CENTER

HARRELL ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000977

$$

SBK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301942
SWODY1
SPC AC 301941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES/EASTERN NC...

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/EASTERN NC...
FEW CHANGES TO PRIOR FORECAST REASONING AS BELOW. REGIONAL WSR-88D
VWP DERIVED WIND DATA CONTINUE TO REFLECT CONSIDERABLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS /50+ KT IN LOWEST 1 KM/ WITH ASSOCIATED AMPLE SRH
COINCIDENT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
FROM NJ/PA AND THE DELMARVA VICINITY...INTO COASTAL NC. THIS
SCENARIO WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ROTATING SHOWERS/TSTMS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES/ENHANCED CONVECTIVE GUSTS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE THE CASE ACROSS CURRENT TORNADO WATCH 689...WITH AT LEAST
SOME INCREASE IN THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL NC THIS EVENING
IN TANDEM WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.

..GUYER.. 09/30/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010/

...NC INTO PA/NJ/NY TODAY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER AL/GA...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALSO...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ROTATED AROUND THE SOUTHEAST
LOW AND IS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO WV/PA. THE RESULT IS A WIDESPREAD
PLUME OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST US. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ARE YIELDING A CORRIDOR OF INTENSE LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH 3KM SRH VALUES OF 500-700 M2/S2 FROM
EASTERN NC INTO EASTERN PA. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OFFSET THE
WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN THE MID LEVELS TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
CAPE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ALL MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST VA AND
NORTHEAST NC.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A NARROW AXIS OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE THAT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH TIME. THE MORE PERSISTENT
CELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...EASTERN NC TONIGHT...
LATER TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN NC AND PROVIDE ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AFTER DARK SHOW THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
INTENSE SRH VALUES /500+ M2/S2/...SUGGESTING THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES OVER FAR EASTERN NC TONIGHT.

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KILM [301942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 301942
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
342 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0238 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNE MALPASS CORNER 34.51N 78.04W
09/30/2010 PENDER NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MALPASS CORNER ROAD IS CLOSED BETWEEN NC HWY 53 AND US
421 DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

$$

WEISS

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KRAH [301942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KRAH 301942
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
342 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 PM HEAVY RAIN ENE SPEED 35.97N 77.44W
09/29/2010 U0.00 INCH EDGECOMBE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER ON MILL POND ROAD AND NORTH BOWERS ROAD NEAR
THE TOWN OF SPEED.

0235 AM FLASH FLOOD GOLDSBORO 35.37N 77.98W
09/30/2010 WAYNE NC EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING ON SEVERAL ROADS...INCLUDING LANCASTER ROAD AND
NEW HOPE ROAD. HIGH WATER SIGNS WERE SET OUT.

0340 AM FLASH FLOOD SCOTLAND NECK 36.13N 77.42W
09/30/2010 HALIFAX NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

HWY 903 AND HOBGOOD ROAD IN EASTERN HALIFAX COUNTY
IMPASSABLE. CHESTNUT STREET IN SCOTLAND NECK IS CLOSED.

0435 AM FLASH FLOOD HIGH POINT 35.98N 80.00W
09/30/2010 GUILFORD NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

NEIGHBORHOOD FLOODED IN THE TRINITY AREA OF HIGH POINT.
TWO HOMES FLOODED AND ACCESS ROAD CLOSED.

0435 AM FLASH FLOOD THOMASVILLE 35.89N 80.08W
09/30/2010 DAVIDSON NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

CAROLINA AVENUE AND RANDOLPH STREET HAVE BEEN CLOSED.

0505 AM HEAVY RAIN WAGRAM 34.89N 79.37W
09/30/2010 E0.00 INCH SCOTLAND NC PUBLIC

MINOR FLOODING ON US15/501 AT THE SCOTLAND/HOKE COUNTY
LINE. ROAD IS OPEN

0514 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 WNW THOMASVILLE 35.90N 80.13W
09/30/2010 DAVIDSON NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

HOUSE FLOODED AND INTERSECTION OF JACOB STREET AND KANOY
ROAD CLOSED.

0515 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 ESE GREENSBORO 36.06N 79.73W
09/30/2010 GUILFORD NC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SOUTH BUFFALO CREEK WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET.

0645 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSW GARNER 35.63N 78.67W
09/30/2010 WAKE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER ON THE ROAD AT ROCK SERVICE AND OLD STAGE ROADS.
REPORT FROM 911 CALL TO WAKE COUNTY.

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 8 ESE LOUISBURG 36.05N 78.17W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

COUPLE OF TREES DOWN IN THE ROAD ALONG HIGHWAY 581 NEAR
THE JUSTICE COMMUNITY.

0715 AM FLASH FLOOD THOMASVILLE 35.89N 80.08W
09/30/2010 DAVIDSON NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED IN THE THOMASVILLE AREA.

0733 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 E ASHEBORO 35.73N 79.74W
09/30/2010 RANDOLPH NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROAD CLOSED AT LOFLIN POND RD NEAR TROGDON POND RD DUE TO
FLOODING.

0733 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 W KERNERSVILLE 36.11N 80.16W
09/30/2010 FORSYTH NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

LINVILLE RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0742 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 SE GORDONTOWN 35.73N 80.10W
09/30/2010 DAVIDSON NC TRAINED SPOTTER

HWY 109 IN SILVER VALLEY 6 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER
THE ROADWAY. ROAD NOT CLOSED YET.

0745 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNW LUCAMA 35.66N 78.02W
09/30/2010 WILSON NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING ALONG LUCAMA ROAD AND ST MARYS CHURCH ROAD.

0800 AM FLASH FLOOD 8 ENE ANSONVILLE 35.13N 79.97W
09/30/2010 RICHMOND NC EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED IN THE MANGUM AREA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

0800 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 ESE GREENSBORO 36.06N 79.73W
09/30/2010 GUILFORD NC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SOUTH BUFFALO CREEK REACHED A STAGE OF 13 FEET.

0815 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 NE HIGH POINT 36.03N 79.95W
09/30/2010 GUILFORD NC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

EAST FORK DEEP RIVER CRESTED AT 11.56 FEET. FLOOD STAGE
IS 10 FEET.

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNE KENLY 35.64N 78.09W
09/30/2010 WILSON NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING ALONG WIGGINS MILL ROAD NEAR SPRINGHILL CHURCH
ROAD.

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD S PRINCETON 35.46N 78.16W
09/30/2010 JOHNSTON NC EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING ALONG PINE STREET CLOSED ROAD AND
INUNDATED YARDS AND APPROACHED CRAWL SPACES OF SEVERAL
HOMES.

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 N KENLY 35.64N 78.12W
09/30/2010 WILSON NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

REVELL ROAD CLOSED IN WILSON COUNTY NEAR THE JOHNSTON
COUNTY LINE.

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 NE HENDERSON 36.37N 78.36W
09/30/2010 VANCE NC AMATEUR RADIO

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROOS PORTION OF VANCE COUNTY NEAR
THE I-85 AND HIGHWAY 1 SPLIT AND ALONG ALONG ROCK MILL
ROAD AND COUNTRY HOME ROAD.

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 W BLACK CREEK 35.64N 77.97W
09/30/2010 WILSON NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING ALONG GLORY ROAD AND BLALOCK ROAD. ROADS WERE
CLOSED.

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 SW RALEIGH 35.78N 78.68W
09/30/2010 WAKE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING ON SULLIVAN DR ON NCSU CAMPUS. ROAD WAS CLOSED.

0923 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 S PILOT 35.86N 78.27W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN NC TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON A POWER LINE. TREE WAS ESTIMATED AT EIGHT
INCHES IN DIAMETER.

0930 AM FLASH FLOOD E RALEIGH 35.81N 78.63W
09/30/2010 WAKE NC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CRABTREE CREEK CRESTED AT 12.69 FEET. FLOOD STAGE 12.0
FEET.

1030 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 ESE GREENSBORO 36.06N 79.73W
09/30/2010 GUILFORD NC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SOUTH BUFFALO CREEK STAGE 13.6 FEET.

1045 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 NE HIGH POINT 36.03N 79.95W
09/30/2010 GUILFORD NC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

EAST FORK DEEP RIVER STAGE 14.3 FEET. FLOOD STAGE 10
FEET.

1055 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 WNW HALIFAX 36.34N 77.64W
09/30/2010 HALIFAX NC EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A FEW TREES BLOWN DOWN IN THE
COUNTY DUE TO VERY WET GROUND. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
AROUND 35 MPH. KIXA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 36 MPH.

1200 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NNE HIGH POINT 36.01N 79.98W
09/30/2010 GUILFORD NC EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING ALONG RIVERMEADE ROAD AND HALIFAX ROAD NEAR
HIGHWAY 68. ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING FROM THE
RESERVOIR.

0230 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 ESE GREENSBORO 36.06N 79.73W
09/30/2010 GUILFORD NC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

APPARENT CREST AT SOUTH BUFFALO CREEK AT 14.1 FEET.

&&

$$

ORROCK

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KRAH [301940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 301940
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NNE HIGH POINT 36.01N 79.98W
09/30/2010 GUILFORD NC EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING ALONG RIVERMEADE ROAD AND HALIFAX ROAD NEAR
HIGHWAY 68. ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING FROM THE
RESERVOIR.

&&

$$

ORROCK

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KRNK [301936]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 301936
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
336 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1056 AM FLOOD 5 WSW GLASGOW 37.61N 79.54W
09/30/2010 ROCKBRIDGE VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SMALL CREEK FLOODED AND CLOSED SHAFER LANE

&&

$$

JJACKSON

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KRNK [301933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 301933
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
333 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1059 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 NNW MONETA 37.21N 79.64W
09/30/2010 BEDFORD VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STONY FORK FLOODED AND WASHED OUT ROUTE 608

&&

$$

JJACKSON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1911

ACUS11 KWNS 301916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301916
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-302115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN VA/DE/ERN MD/SERN PA/WRN NJ

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 689...

VALID 301916Z - 302115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 689 CONTINUES.

RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR REVEALS A MINIMUM IN CELLULAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH EARLIER PREVAILED WITHIN THE BAND OF
CONVECTION RESIDING OVER WW 689 ATTM. CORRESPONDINGLY...LACK OF
OBSERVED LIGHTNING SUGGESTS LITTLE INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM ACROSS AREAS WHERE STEADY/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
ONGOING.

NONETHELESS...OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1KM VALUES NEAR 40 KT/
REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT A LIMITED THREAT FOR
TORNADOES PERSISTS. MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS NERN NC AND ADJACENT SERN VA -- WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY
AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW. IN ADDITION...HINTS OF MORE CELLULAR
CONVECTION EXIST WITHIN A SUBTLE DRY SLOT OVER N CENTRAL VA...WITH
NEWD EXPANSION INTO WW 689 COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME SMALL INCREASE IN
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 09/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 41087704 41117499 37907502 37807609 40547696 41087704

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1910

ACUS11 KWNS 301907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301907 COR
NCZ000-VAZ000-302100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301907Z - 302100Z

CORRECTED TO CHANGE ILN TO ILM IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH

ROTATING CONVECTIVE CELLS CONTINUE MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM TOWARD/ONTO THE NC COAST.

LATEST RADAR LOOP REVEALS A COUPLE OF AREAS OF MESOSCALE LOW
PRESSURE -- ONE SE OF ILM /WILMINGTON NC/ AND THE OTHER S OF MHX
/MOREHEAD CITY NC/...BOTH MOVING NNWWD TOWARD THE NC COAST.
MEANWHILE...STORM-SCALE ROTATION IS ALSO EVIDENT WITHIN CELLULAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF THESE TWO LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATIONS...WHICH
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAPE. WHILE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW AS MEAGER INSTABILITY -- CONFIRMED BY LACK OF
APPRECIABLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY -- HINDERS STRONGER CELLS.
NONETHELESS...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT PER LATEST KMHX WSR-88D
VWP SUPPORTING THE STORM-SCALE UPDRAFT ROTATION...AN ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE. WHILE THREAT APPEARS TO LOW TO WARRANT
CONSIDERATION OF WW ISSUANCE ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
AREA.

..GOSS.. 09/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON 33417766 33937810 35217754 36587652 36447560 35487530
34337618 33417766

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KLWX [301902]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 301902
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
302 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 ENE GREENFIELD 37.93N 78.82W
09/30/2010 NELSON VA 911 CALL CENTER

ROUTE 635 CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING NEAR GREENFIELD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000976

$$

SBK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1910

ACUS11 KWNS 301900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301900
NCZ000-VAZ000-302100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301900Z - 302100Z

ROTATING CONVECTIVE CELLS CONTINUE MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM TOWARD/ONTO THE NC COAST.

LATEST RADAR LOOP REVEALS A COUPLE OF AREAS OF MESOSCALE LOW
PRESSURE -- ONE SE OF ILN /WILMINGTON NC/ AND THE OTHER S OF MHX
/MOREHEAD CITY NC/...BOTH MOVING NNWWD TOWARD THE NC COAST.
MEANWHILE...STORM-SCALE ROTATION IS ALSO EVIDENT WITHIN CELLULAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF THESE TWO LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATIONS...WHICH
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAPE. WHILE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW AS MEAGER INSTABILITY -- CONFIRMED BY LACK OF
APPRECIABLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY -- HINDERS STRONGER CELLS.
NONETHELESS...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT PER LATEST KMHX WSR-88D
VWP SUPPORTING THE STORM-SCALE UPDRAFT ROTATION...AN ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE. WHILE THREAT APPEARS TO LOW TO WARRANT
CONSIDERATION OF WW ISSUANCE ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
AREA.

..GOSS.. 09/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON 33417766 33937810 35217754 36587652 36447560 35487530
34337618 33417766

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KCTP [301859]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KCTP 301859
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
259 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1051 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 NE RED LION 39.95N 76.54W
09/30/2010 YORK PA EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

0100 PM FLOOD MECHANICSBURG 40.21N 77.01W
09/30/2010 CUMBERLAND PA TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER COVERING HOGESTOWN RD. HOGESTOWN RUN AT BANKFULL
AND BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER.

0155 PM FLOOD 1 NE LEBANON 40.35N 76.41W
09/30/2010 LEBANON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

BASEMENT FLOODING AT A RIDGE TOP HOUSE ON NORTHEAST SIDE
OF TOWN.

0210 PM FLOOD MILLERSVILLE 40.00N 76.35W
09/30/2010 LANCASTER PA TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAUSED MILLERSVILLE UNIVERSITY TO
CLOSE FOR THE DAY. A FEW DOWNED TREES AROUND CAMPUS.

&&

$$

JAK

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KLWX [301858]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 301858
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N MILLS MANOR 39.54N 77.39W
09/30/2010 FREDERICK MD 911 CALL CENTER

INTERSECTION OF BOTTOMLY ROAD AND WILHIDE ROAD CLOSED
DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000975

$$

SBK

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KLWX [301854]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 301854
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
254 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM FLASH FLOOD ENGLARS MILL 39.51N 77.13W
09/30/2010 FREDERICK MD 911 CALL CENTER

MARYLAND ROUTE 31 CLOSED ON BRIDGE OVER SAMS
CREEK...WHICH WAS OVERFLOWING ITS BANKS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000974

$$

SBK

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KAKQ [301845]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 301845
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
235 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0617 AM FLASH FLOOD WINDSOR 36.00N 76.94W
09/30/2010 BERTIE NC EMERGENCY MNGR

LOCAL FLOODING IN WINDSOR WITH SEVERAL STREETS CLOSED.
HIGH WATER ON SECONDARY ROADS.

1004 AM FLASH FLOOD AHOSKIE 36.29N 76.99W
09/30/2010 HERTFORD NC EMERGENCY MNGR

15 ROADS IDENTIFIED WITH OVERWASH AND FLOOD CONDITIONS IN
HERTFORD COUNTY FROM FLASH FLOODS. PINETOPS ROAD AND
HORTONS CHURCH ROAD CLOSED.

1017 AM FLASH FLOOD AHOSKIE 36.29N 76.99W
09/30/2010 HERTFORD NC EMERGENCY MNGR

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF AHOSKIE. 32 STREETS
REPORTED UNDER WATER. WATER COMING OVER THE BANKS ON
AHOSKIE CREEK IN THE AHOSKIE BUYOUT AREA.

1108 AM FLASH FLOOD JACKSON 36.39N 77.42W
09/30/2010 NORTHAMPTON NC EMERGENCY MNGR

NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IS REPORTING INCREASED FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

AJZ

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KBOX [301842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBOX 301842
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
242 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1257 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG HARTFORD 41.77N 72.68W
09/30/2010 HARTFORD CT AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON PALM STREET

0217 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CAMBRIDGE 42.38N 71.12W
09/30/2010 MIDDLESEX MA TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCH BRANCH DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF DUDLEY AND
CLIFTON STREETS

&&

$$

WSIMPSON

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KRAH [301840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 301840
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
239 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 ESE GREENSBORO 36.06N 79.73W
09/30/2010 GUILFORD NC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

APPARENT CREST AT SOUTH BUFFALO CREEK AT 14.1 FEET.

&&

$$

RHENES

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KRNK [301823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 301823
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
222 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0837 AM FLOOD 3 S ALTAVISTA 37.08N 79.31W
09/30/2010 PITTSYLVANIA VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

COUNTRY CLUB ROAD WAS FLOODED AND CLOSED BY SYCAMORE
CREEK.

0837 AM FLOOD 4 E GRETNA 36.96N 79.30W
09/30/2010 PITTSYLVANIA VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MIDWAY RD WAS FLOODED AND CLOSED BY THE STINKING RIVER.

0849 AM FLOOD 4 SW CHATHAM 36.78N 79.46W
09/30/2010 PITTSYLVANIA VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

IRISH RD WAS FLOODED AND CLOSED BY BEARSKIN CREEK.

0849 AM FLOOD 4 NW BLAIRS 36.72N 79.45W
09/30/2010 PITTSYLVANIA VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HOPEWELL RD WAS FLOODED AND CLOSED BY WHITE OAK CREEK.

0849 AM FLOOD 4 WNW CLIMAX 36.91N 79.55W
09/30/2010 PITTSYLVANIA VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

COLONY RD WAS FLOODED AND CLOSED BY PIE CREEK.

0849 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 WSW CALLANDS 36.79N 79.65W
09/30/2010 PITTSYLVANIA VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

AVENDALE RD FLOODED AND CLOSED BY TURKEYCOCK CREEK.

&&

$$

JJACKSON

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KCTP [301822]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KCTP 301822
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
221 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM FLOOD MECHANICSBURG 40.21N 77.01W
09/30/2010 CUMBERLAND PA TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER COVERING HOGESTOWN RD. HOGESTOWN RUN AT BANKFULL
AND BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER.

0155 PM FLOOD 1 NE LEBANON 40.35N 76.41W
09/30/2010 LEBANON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

BASEMENT FLOODING AT A RIDGE TOP HOUSE ON NORTHEAST SIDE
OF TOWN.

0210 PM FLOOD MILLERSVILLE 40.00N 76.35W
09/30/2010 LANCASTER PA TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAUSED MILLERSVILLE UNIVERSITY TO
CLOSE FOR THE DAY. A FEW DOWNED TREES AROUND CAMPUS.

&&

$$

JAK

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KCTP [301814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KCTP 301814
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
214 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM FLOOD MECHANICSBURG 40.21N 77.01W
09/30/2010 CUMBERLAND PA TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER COVERING HOGESTOWN RD. HOGESTOWN RUN AT BANKFULL
AND BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER.

0155 PM FLOOD 1 NE LEBANON 40.35N 76.41W
09/30/2010 LEBANON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

BASEMENT FLOODING AT A RIDGE TOP HOUSE ON NORTHEAST SIDE
OF TOWN.

&&

$$

JAK

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KILM [301737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 301737
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
134 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 PM FLASH FLOOD TOPSAIL BEACH 34.37N 77.63W
09/30/2010 PENDER NC PUBLIC

CATHERINE AVENUE FLOODED.

&&

$$

BACON

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KCTP [301707]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 301707
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
107 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM FLOOD MECHANICSBURG 40.21N 77.01W
09/30/2010 CUMBERLAND PA TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER COVERING HOGESTOWN RD. HOGESTOWN RUN AT BANKFULL
AND BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER.

&&

$$

JAK

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 688

WWUS20 KWNS 301703
SEL8
SPC WW 301703
DCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-NJZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-301700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 688
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
103 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 688 ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NORTH CAROLINA
NEW JERSEY
VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301657
SWODY2
SPC AC 301656

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS INTO
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATE TODAY/FRIDAY AND COME INTO PHASE
WITH AN EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES LONGWAVE
TROUGH. FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHERN NV TO THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ATTENDANT WARM/MOIST SECTOR
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SHUNTED EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...OFF MUCH OF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
/AND FL/. AS STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS REMAIN PREVALENT /HIGHLIGHTED
BY 60+ KT FLOW AROUND 850 MB/...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROBABLE
ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY MANIFESTED BY A
NORTHEASTWARD DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE BRUNT OF THIS DEVELOPMENT/ATTENDANT
WARM SECTOR TO REMAIN OFF/NEAR THE COAST...SUCH THAT PROSPECTS FOR
AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/CORRESPONDING SEVERE POTENTIAL INLAND ARE
LOW...OR AT LEAST UNCERTAIN. SHOULD EVEN SCANT SURFACE BASED
BUOYANCY BE REALIZED ON FRIDAY...SOME LOW THREAT FOR CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE /PERHAPS AS A FINE LINE/ AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
COULD EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THE CURRENT
UNCERTAINTY AND LIKELIHOOD OF SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED
DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT
PROSPECTS FOR SUCH WILL BE SUBSEQUENTLY REEVALUATED IN SHORTER TIME
SCALE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

..GUYER.. 09/30/2010

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KRAH [301656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KRAH 301656
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1256 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 N KENLY 35.64N 78.12W
09/30/2010 WILSON NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

REVELL ROAD CLOSED IN WILSON COUNTY NEAR THE JOHNSTON
COUNTY LINE.

&&

$$

ORROCK

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KRNK [301653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 301653
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1253 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0827 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 ENE BURNT CHIMNEY 37.14N 79.75W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HARDY RD FLOOD AND CLOSED BY SMALL CREEK

0913 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 WNW ROCKY MOUNT 37.01N 79.97W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

COLES CREEK RD FLOODED AND CLOSED BY COLES CREEK.

0746 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 ENE BOONES MILL 37.15N 79.88W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

RED VALLEY RD FLOODED AND CLOSED BY GILLS CREEK

0754 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 S FERRUM 36.88N 80.01W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

PEMBROOK RD FLOODED AND CLOSED BY HEADWATERS OF TOWN
CREEK.

0754 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE SYDNORSVILLE 36.83N 79.79W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUTTON HOLLOW RD FLOODED AND CLOSED BY SNOW CREEK.

0913 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 E CALLAWAY 37.02N 79.99W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MADCAP RD FLOODED AND CLOSED BY MADCAP CREEK.

0754 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 ENE FERRUM 36.95N 79.92W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

RURITAN RD FLOODED AND CLOSED BY HEADWATERS OF STORY
CREEK.

0754 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 W SYDNORSVILLE 36.86N 79.89W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

RUFUS RD FLOODED AND CLOSED BY BIG CHESTNUT CREEK.

0754 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 W SYDNORSVILLE 36.85N 79.92W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROBIN RIDGE RD FLOODED AND CLOSED BY BIG CHESTNUT CREEK.

0754 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 W FERRUM 36.92N 80.06W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

PERNELLO RD FLOODED AND CLOSED BY NICHOLAS CREEK.

0754 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 WNW SYDNORSVILLE 36.89N 79.91W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TOMS KNOB RD FLOODED AND CLOSED BY A TRIBUTARY OF BIG
CHESTNUT CREEK.

0754 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 S ROCKY MOUNT 36.92N 79.89W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

BRIAR MOUNTAIN RD FLOODED AND CLOSED BY THE SOUTH FORK OF
LITTLE CHESTNUT CREEK.

&&

$$

JJACKSON

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KLWX [301651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 301651
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1251 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0946 AM TSTM WND DMG MILBURN ON THE MAGOTHY 39.11N 76.45W
09/30/2010 ANNE ARUNDEL MD EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTED DAMAGE INCLUDES HEAVY TREE DAMAGE AND SOME
DAMAGE TO HOMES. TIME BASED ON RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000973

$$

KRAMAR

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KILM [301645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 301645
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1244 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE SHALLOTTE 34.00N 78.35W
09/30/2010 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE LANE OF ROYAL OAK ROAD...NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH
SUN AND SURF LANE...WAS REPORTEDLY WASHED OUT.

&&

$$

DIGIORGI

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 689

WWUS20 KWNS 301638
SEL9
SPC WW 301638
DEZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-302300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 689
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DELAWARE
NORTHEAST MARYLAND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALLENTOWN PENNSYLVANIA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PATUXENT RIVER
MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 688...

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN PA. SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN WEAK
TO MODERATE MID/LOW LEVEL ROTATION DUE TO VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...THE RISK WITH BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WATCH AREA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21040.

...HART

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KRNK [301637]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 301637
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1237 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM FLOOD SW CLIFTON FORGE CITY 37.82N 79.83W
09/30/2010 ALLEGHANY VA PUBLIC

EAST FORK OF DRY CREEK REPORTED TO BE 3 FEET OUT OF ITS
BANKS IN CLIFTON FORGE.

&&

$$

JJACKSON

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KRAH [301633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 301633
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1233 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD S PRINCETON 35.46N 78.16W
09/30/2010 JOHNSTON NC EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING ALONG PINE STREET CLOSED ROAD AND
INUNDATED YARDS AND APPROACHED CRAWL SPACES OF SEVERAL
HOMES.

&&

$$

DJF

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KAKQ [301633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 301633
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1233 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWERS HILL 36.78N 76.42W
09/30/2010 CITY OF CHESAPEAKE VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE REPORTED KNOCKED DOWN ON ROUTE 58.

&&

$$

WAMSLEY

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KRNK [301632]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 301632
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1232 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM FLOOD 3 SSW AMHERST 37.54N 79.06W
09/30/2010 AMHERST VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGGINBOTHAM CREEK FLOODED AND CLOSED HIGGINBOTHAM RD

&&

$$

JJACKSON

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KRAH [301615]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 301615
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1214 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 8 ESE LOUISBURG 36.05N 78.17W
09/30/2010 FRANKLIN NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

COUPLE OF TREES DOWN IN THE ROAD ALONG HIGHWAY 581 NEAR
THE JUSTICE COMMUNITY.

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 NE HENDERSON 36.37N 78.36W
09/30/2010 VANCE NC AMATEUR RADIO

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROOS PORTION OF VANCE COUNTY NEAR
THE I-85 AND HIGHWAY 1 SPLIT AND ALONG ALONG ROCK MILL
ROAD AND COUNTRY HOME ROAD.

&&

$$

ORROCK

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KLWX [301612]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 301612
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1212 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD GRAY MANOR 39.28N 76.50W
09/30/2010 BALTIMORE MD TRAINED SPOTTER

6 TO 12 INCHES OF WATER OVER MERRITT BOULEVARD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000972

$$

KRAMAR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301553
SWODY1
SPC AC 301551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO PORTIONS
OF PA/NJ/NY...

...NC INTO PA/NJ/NY TODAY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER AL/GA...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALSO...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ROTATED AROUND THE SOUTHEAST
LOW AND IS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO WV/PA. THE RESULT IS A WIDESPREAD
PLUME OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST US. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ARE YIELDING A CORRIDOR OF INTENSE LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH 3KM SRH VALUES OF 500-700 M2/S2 FROM
EASTERN NC INTO EASTERN PA. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OFFSET THE
WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN THE MID LEVELS TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
CAPE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ALL MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST VA AND
NORTHEAST NC.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A NARROW AXIS OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE THAT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH TIME. THE MORE PERSISTENT
CELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...EASTERN NC TONIGHT...
LATER TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN NC AND PROVIDE ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AFTER DARK SHOW THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
INTENSE SRH VALUES /500+ M2/S2/...SUGGESTING THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES OVER FAR EASTERN NC TONIGHT.

..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/30/2010

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KAKQ [301541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 301541
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1141 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0952 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNW TOANO 37.41N 76.82W
09/30/2010 JAMES CITY VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE REPORTED KNOCKED DOWN ON ROUTE 60.

&&

$$

WAMSLEY

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