SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301916
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-302115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN VA/DE/ERN MD/SERN PA/WRN NJ
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 689...
VALID 301916Z - 302115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 689 CONTINUES.
RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR REVEALS A MINIMUM IN CELLULAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH EARLIER PREVAILED WITHIN THE BAND OF
CONVECTION RESIDING OVER WW 689 ATTM. CORRESPONDINGLY...LACK OF
OBSERVED LIGHTNING SUGGESTS LITTLE INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM ACROSS AREAS WHERE STEADY/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
ONGOING.
NONETHELESS...OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1KM VALUES NEAR 40 KT/
REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT A LIMITED THREAT FOR
TORNADOES PERSISTS. MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS NERN NC AND ADJACENT SERN VA -- WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY
AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW. IN ADDITION...HINTS OF MORE CELLULAR
CONVECTION EXIST WITHIN A SUBTLE DRY SLOT OVER N CENTRAL VA...WITH
NEWD EXPANSION INTO WW 689 COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME SMALL INCREASE IN
TORNADO POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 09/30/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 41087704 41117499 37907502 37807609 40547696 41087704
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