NWUS55 KRIW 260201
LSRRIW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
658 PM MDT SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0522 PM HEAVY SNOW 23 NW DUBOIS 43.73N 110.01W
11/25/2012 E6.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
BROOKS LAKE LODGE
0522 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 NE ALTA 43.79N 110.94W
11/25/2012 E16.00 INCHES TETON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
GRAND TARGHEE-CHIEF JOSEPH
0522 PM HEAVY SNOW 9.9 NNW JACKSON 43.60N 110.85W
11/25/2012 M11.00 INCHES TETON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
JACKSON HOLE-RAYMER
0522 PM HEAVY SNOW 9.4 NNW JACKSON 43.59N 110.87W
11/25/2012 M13.00 INCHES TETON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
JACKSON HOLE-RENDEZVOUS BOWL
0523 PM HEAVY SNOW TOGWOTEE MOUNTAIN LODGE 43.82N 110.18W
11/25/2012 E7.00 INCHES TETON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
0523 PM SNOW 8.6 NNW JACKSON 43.58N 110.85W
11/25/2012 M3.00 INCHES TETON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
JACKSON HOLE-BASE
0523 PM HEAVY SNOW 9.3 NNW JACKSON 43.59N 110.84W
11/25/2012 M9.00 INCHES TETON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
JACKSON HOLE-MID
0523 PM SNOW 17.2 E THAYNE 42.97N 110.61W
11/25/2012 E1.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
BLIND BULL SUMMIT
0525 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 S JACKSON 43.46N 110.76W
11/25/2012 M6.00 INCHES TETON WY PUBLIC
SNOW KING SKI AREA
0527 PM SNOW AFTON 42.72N 110.92W
11/25/2012 M0.10 INCHES LINCOLN WY CO-OP OBSERVER
0528 PM SNOW 3 SE BEDFORD 42.87N 110.90W
11/25/2012 M0.50 INCHES LINCOLN WY CO-OP OBSERVER
0528 PM SNOW 16 S BUFFALO 44.12N 106.73W
11/25/2012 M0.60 INCHES JOHNSON WY CO-OP OBSERVER
BILLY CREEK
0529 PM SNOW GREYBULL 44.49N 108.05W
11/25/2012 M0.20 INCHES BIG HORN WY CO-OP OBSERVER
0530 PM SNOW LAMAR RANGER STATION 44.89N 110.23W
11/25/2012 M4.40 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY CO-OP OBSERVER
0531 PM SNOW MOOSE 43.65N 110.71W
11/25/2012 M4.80 INCHES TETON WY CO-OP OBSERVER
0531 PM SNOW OLD FAITHFUL 44.45N 110.83W
11/25/2012 M3.00 INCHES TETON WY CO-OP OBSERVER
OLD FAITHFUL RANGER STATION
0533 PM SNOW 28 E LOVELL 44.80N 107.84W
11/25/2012 E4.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET
BALD MOUNTAIN SNOTEL
0533 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 NE SHELL 44.68N 107.58W
11/25/2012 E6.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET
BONE SPRINGS DIVIDE SNOTEL
0533 PM SNOW 13 W BARNUM 43.63N 107.18W
11/25/2012 E4.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET
MIDDLE POWDER SNOTEL
0534 PM HEAVY SNOW 24 SW BUFFALO 44.16N 107.13W
11/25/2012 E6.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET
POWDER RIVER PASS SNOTEL
0534 PM HEAVY SNOW 18 E SHELL 44.50N 107.43W
11/25/2012 E7.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET
SHELL CREEK SNOTEL
0534 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 WNW MAYOWORTH 43.89N 107.06W
11/25/2012 E7.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET
BEAR TRAP MEADOW SNOTEL
0534 PM SNOW 17 W BUFFALO 44.40N 107.06W
11/25/2012 E3.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET
CLOUD PEAK RESERVOIR SNOTEL
0534 PM SNOW 21 SW BARNUM 43.47N 107.24W
11/25/2012 E1.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET
GRAVE SPRING SNOTEL
0534 PM SNOW 14 WSW BUFFALO 44.26N 106.98W
11/25/2012 E5.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET
HANSEN SAWMILL SNOTEL
0535 PM SNOW 27 NW BUFFALO 44.54N 107.17W
11/25/2012 E5.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET
LITTLE GOOSE SNOTEL
0535 PM SNOW 16 W BUFFALO 44.34N 107.02W
11/25/2012 E4.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET
SOLDIER PARK SNOTEL
0535 PM HEAVY SNOW 8 NNE MORAN JUNCTION 43.95N 110.45W
11/25/2012 E14.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET
BASE CAMP SNOTEL
0535 PM HEAVY SNOW 6 ENE ALTA 43.78N 110.93W
11/25/2012 E16.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET
GRAND TARGHEE SNOTEL
0535 PM SNOW 10 N BONDURANT 43.34N 110.43W
11/25/2012 E3.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET
GRANITE CREEK SNOTEL
0535 PM HEAVY SNOW 8 W SOUTH ENTRANCE 44.13N 110.83W
11/25/2012 E14.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET
GRASSY LAKE SNOTEL
0536 PM SNOW 20 NE BONDURANT 43.39N 110.13W
11/25/2012 E2.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET
GROS VENTRE SUMMIT SNOTEL
0536 PM SNOW 14 E BONDURANT 43.17N 110.14W
11/25/2012 E3.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET
LOOMIS PARK SNOTEL
0536 PM SNOW 8 WNW JACKSON 43.52N 110.91W
11/25/2012 E5.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET
PHILLIPS BENCH SNOTEL
0536 PM HEAVY SNOW SOUTH ENTRANCE 44.13N 110.67W
11/25/2012 E7.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET
SNAKE RIVER STN SNOTEL
0536 PM HEAVY SNOW 25 NW DUBOIS 43.75N 110.06W
11/25/2012 E10.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET
TOGWOTEE PASS SNOTEL
0536 PM SNOW 24 ESE BOULDER 42.65N 109.26W
11/25/2012 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET
BIG SANDY OPENING SNOTEL
0537 PM SNOW 12 NNE PINEDALE 43.01N 109.76W
11/25/2012 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET
ELKHART PARK G.S. SNOTEL
0537 PM SNOW 16 SW DUBOIS 43.38N 109.88W
11/25/2012 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET
GUNSITE PASS SNOTEL
0537 PM SNOW 22 N CORA 43.25N 110.02W
11/25/2012 E5.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET
KENDALL RANGER STATION SNOTEL
0537 PM SNOW 12 N CORA 43.11N 109.95W
11/25/2012 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET
NEW FORK LAKE SNOTEL
0537 PM SNOW 16 E BOULDER 42.71N 109.41W
11/25/2012 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET
POCKET CREEK SNOTEL
0537 PM SNOW 6 WSW DUBOIS 43.50N 109.75W
11/25/2012 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET
LITTLE WARM SNOTEL
0538 PM SNOW 19 SW BONDURANT 42.96N 110.61W
11/25/2012 E2.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET
BLIND BULL SUMMIT SNOTEL
0538 PM SNOW 8 SE AFTON 42.65N 110.81W
11/25/2012 E2.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET
COTTONWOOD CREEK SNOTEL
0538 PM SNOW 26 N KEMMERER 42.15N 110.68W
11/25/2012 E1.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET
HAMS FORK SNOTEL
0538 PM SNOW 36 N KEMMERER 42.30N 110.68W
11/25/2012 E2.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET
INDIAN CREEK SNOTEL
0538 PM SNOW 15 NNE COKEVILLE 42.27N 110.81W
11/25/2012 E1.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET
KELLEY RANGER STATION SNOTEL
0539 PM SNOW 21 W BIG PINEY 42.49N 110.53W
11/25/2012 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET
SNIDER BASIN SNOTEL
0539 PM SNOW 19 SE AFTON 42.53N 110.66W
11/25/2012 E1.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET
SPRING CREEK DIVIDE SNOTEL
0539 PM SNOW 17 E AFTON 42.76N 110.59W
11/25/2012 E2.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET
TRIPLE PEAK SNOTEL
0539 PM SNOW 8 NE AFTON 42.82N 110.84W
11/25/2012 E4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET
WILLOW CREEK SNOTEL
0539 PM SNOW 12 ESE BONDURANT 43.13N 110.20W
11/25/2012 E2.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET
EAST RIM DIVIDE SNOTEL
0539 PM SNOW 1 WSW CANYON 44.72N 110.51W
11/25/2012 E4.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET
CANYON SNOTEL
0540 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 N SOUTH ENTRANCE 44.21N 110.67W
11/25/2012 E9.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET
LEWIS LAKE DIVIDE SNOTEL
0540 PM HEAVY SNOW 16 N PAHASKA 44.73N 109.91W
11/25/2012 E8.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET
PARKER PEAK SNOTEL
0540 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 W PAHASKA 44.48N 110.16W
11/25/2012 E8.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET
SYLVAN LAKE SNOTEL
0540 PM SNOW 4 WSW PAHASKA 44.48N 110.04W
11/25/2012 E4.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET
SYLVAN ROAD SNOTEL
0540 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 ESE OLD FAITHFUL 44.37N 110.58W
11/25/2012 E6.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET
THUMB DIVIDE SNOTEL
0541 PM HEAVY SNOW 25 NE MORAN JUNCTION 44.15N 110.22W
11/25/2012 E10.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET
TWO OCEAN PLATEAU SNOTEL
0541 PM SNOW 21 W CLARK 44.94N 109.57W
11/25/2012 E4.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET
BEARTOOTH LAKE SNOTEL
0541 PM HEAVY SNOW 19 WSW WAPITI 44.38N 109.79W
11/25/2012 E7.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET
BLACKWATER SNOTEL
0541 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 N DUBOIS 43.70N 109.67W
11/25/2012 E7.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET
BURROUGHS CREEK SNOTEL
0541 PM SNOW 16 NE DUBOIS 43.67N 109.37W
11/25/2012 E4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET
CASTLE CREEK SNOTEL
0541 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 NE PAHASKA 44.65N 109.78W
11/25/2012 E8.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET
EVENING STAR SNOTEL
0541 PM SNOW 30 SW MEETEETSE 43.86N 109.32W
11/25/2012 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET
KIRWIN SNOTEL
0542 PM SNOW 18 SW CODY 44.30N 109.24W
11/25/2012 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET
MARQUETTE SNOTEL
0542 PM SNOW 18 WSW MEETEETSE 44.03N 109.18W
11/25/2012 E1.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET
TIMBER CREEK SNOTEL
0542 PM HEAVY SNOW 26 WSW CLARK 44.80N 109.66W
11/25/2012 E6.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET
WOLVERINE SNOTEL
0542 PM SNOW 56 SW CODY 43.93N 109.82W
11/25/2012 E4.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET
YOUNTS PEAK SNOTEL
0657 PM SNOW BUFFALO 44.35N 106.69W
11/25/2012 M5.50 INCHES JOHNSON WY TRAINED SPOTTER
0657 PM SNOW CODY 44.51N 109.06W
11/25/2012 M2.00 INCHES PARK WY TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
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Sunday, November 25, 2012
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 260051
SWODY1
SPC AC 260049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...THE ARKLAMISS REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...
LOW LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY AT LAKE CHARLES DURING THE
PAST HALF DAY PER RAOB DATA...AND MID-EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-60S DEWPOINTS HAS ADVANCED NWD TO THE
COASTAL WATERS OFF THE MIDDLE/LOWER TX COAST. CONTINUED MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY SOUTH OF
AN ORGANIZING FRONT WILL FOSTER ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AMIDST THIS DESTABILIZATION...THE TERMINUS OF A
MODEST WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM WILL OVERLAY THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
ASSOCIATED MASS CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AFTER 10Z. HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY WEAK MASS RESPONSE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WELL IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...DEEP ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. AS
SUCH...THE COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED SUCH THAT A GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA IS NOT
WARRANTED.
..COHEN/GOSS.. 11/26/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 260049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...THE ARKLAMISS REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...
LOW LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY AT LAKE CHARLES DURING THE
PAST HALF DAY PER RAOB DATA...AND MID-EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-60S DEWPOINTS HAS ADVANCED NWD TO THE
COASTAL WATERS OFF THE MIDDLE/LOWER TX COAST. CONTINUED MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY SOUTH OF
AN ORGANIZING FRONT WILL FOSTER ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AMIDST THIS DESTABILIZATION...THE TERMINUS OF A
MODEST WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM WILL OVERLAY THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
ASSOCIATED MASS CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AFTER 10Z. HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY WEAK MASS RESPONSE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WELL IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...DEEP ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. AS
SUCH...THE COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED SUCH THAT A GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA IS NOT
WARRANTED.
..COHEN/GOSS.. 11/26/2012
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KMQT [260045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 260045
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
745 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM SNOW 2 S NEWBERRY 46.33N 85.50W
11/25/2012 M2.6 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER
12 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. STILL SNOWING AT TIME OF
OBSERVATION.
&&
$$
KCOOLEY
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
745 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM SNOW 2 S NEWBERRY 46.33N 85.50W
11/25/2012 M2.6 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER
12 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. STILL SNOWING AT TIME OF
OBSERVATION.
&&
$$
KCOOLEY
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KTFX [252312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS55 KTFX 252312
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
412 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM SNOW 5 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.59N 111.12W
11/25/2012 M5.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
&&
CORRECTED EVENT
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
412 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM SNOW 5 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.59N 111.12W
11/25/2012 M5.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
&&
CORRECTED EVENT
$$
NJL
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2122
ACUS11 KWNS 252308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252307
NYZ000-260300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN NY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 252307Z - 260300Z
SUMMARY...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN 1-2-IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES WHILE TRANSITIONING SLIGHTLY
NWD...THEN SWD...THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...ONE-HOUR PRECIP TOTALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
WELL-DEFINED...PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND STRETCHING FROM
CNTRL/NRN OSWEGO COUNTY AND SRN JEFFERSON COUNTY EWD TO LEWIS AND
NRN ONEIDA COUNTIES ARE LOCALLY REACHING 0.25 IN/HR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BURSTS...PER MONTAGUE NY RADAR DATA. USING
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 8:1 TO 10:1...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO
LOCALLY 2 IN/HR ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SNOW
BAND. THESE RATES ARE BEING AIDED BY THE LONG-FETCH-LENGTH...
OVER-WATER TRAJECTORIES PROMOTING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY/WLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CLOUD LAYER AS SAMPLED BY THE BUFFALO VWP. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF
THIS FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG -- GENERALLY 15-30 KT -- THE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW OVER THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LOCALIZED 2-IN-HR SNOWFALL RATES INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE SNOW BAND SHOULD REORIENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER
00Z...A MODEST INCREASE IN PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT
IN BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS MAY INITIALLY DISRUPT THE
ONGOING EVOLUTION OF THE SNOW BAND...WITH THE BAND BECOMING
REDEFINED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF ITS ONGOING LOCATION EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR -- MORE
LIKELY -- SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. LATER IN THE NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO VEER TO MORE WLY...WITH THE SNOW BAND GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SWD.
..COHEN.. 11/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43597620 43697622 43797627 43837630 43917620 43917585
43867550 43677539 43377541 43327571 43327607 43467631
43597620
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252307
NYZ000-260300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN NY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 252307Z - 260300Z
SUMMARY...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN 1-2-IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES WHILE TRANSITIONING SLIGHTLY
NWD...THEN SWD...THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...ONE-HOUR PRECIP TOTALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
WELL-DEFINED...PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND STRETCHING FROM
CNTRL/NRN OSWEGO COUNTY AND SRN JEFFERSON COUNTY EWD TO LEWIS AND
NRN ONEIDA COUNTIES ARE LOCALLY REACHING 0.25 IN/HR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BURSTS...PER MONTAGUE NY RADAR DATA. USING
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 8:1 TO 10:1...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO
LOCALLY 2 IN/HR ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SNOW
BAND. THESE RATES ARE BEING AIDED BY THE LONG-FETCH-LENGTH...
OVER-WATER TRAJECTORIES PROMOTING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY/WLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CLOUD LAYER AS SAMPLED BY THE BUFFALO VWP. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF
THIS FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG -- GENERALLY 15-30 KT -- THE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW OVER THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LOCALIZED 2-IN-HR SNOWFALL RATES INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE SNOW BAND SHOULD REORIENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER
00Z...A MODEST INCREASE IN PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT
IN BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS MAY INITIALLY DISRUPT THE
ONGOING EVOLUTION OF THE SNOW BAND...WITH THE BAND BECOMING
REDEFINED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF ITS ONGOING LOCATION EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR -- MORE
LIKELY -- SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. LATER IN THE NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO VEER TO MORE WLY...WITH THE SNOW BAND GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SWD.
..COHEN.. 11/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43597620 43697622 43797627 43837630 43917620 43917585
43867550 43677539 43377541 43327571 43327607 43467631
43597620
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KDLH [252232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 252232
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
432 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM SNOW COTTON 47.17N 92.47W
11/25/2012 M1.2 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER
SNOWFALL TODAY.
0415 PM SNOW 1 S SOLON SPRINGS 46.33N 91.82W
11/25/2012 M1.5 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER
SNOWFALL TODAY
0415 PM SNOW 5 WSW SOLON SPRINGS 46.32N 91.92W
11/25/2012 M1.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CCHRIST
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LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
432 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM SNOW COTTON 47.17N 92.47W
11/25/2012 M1.2 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER
SNOWFALL TODAY.
0415 PM SNOW 1 S SOLON SPRINGS 46.33N 91.82W
11/25/2012 M1.5 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER
SNOWFALL TODAY
0415 PM SNOW 5 WSW SOLON SPRINGS 46.32N 91.92W
11/25/2012 M1.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CCHRIST
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KMQT [252145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 252145
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
445 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM SNOW 1 ESE HOUGHTON 47.11N 88.54W
11/25/2012 M2.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI COCORAHS
8 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 1/3 OF A
MILE.
&&
$$
KCOOLEY
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
445 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM SNOW 1 ESE HOUGHTON 47.11N 88.54W
11/25/2012 M2.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI COCORAHS
8 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 1/3 OF A
MILE.
&&
$$
KCOOLEY
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KCYS [252128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 252128
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
228 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0210 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WNW LARAMIE 41.38N 105.81W
11/25/2012 M57 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
SUSTAINED AT 41 MPH.
&&
$$
BCHAPMAN
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
228 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0210 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WNW LARAMIE 41.38N 105.81W
11/25/2012 M57 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
SUSTAINED AT 41 MPH.
&&
$$
BCHAPMAN
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KCYS [252128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 252128
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
227 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0145 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ROCK RIVER 41.73N 105.98W
11/25/2012 M54 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET
REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UR345
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
227 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0145 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ROCK RIVER 41.73N 105.98W
11/25/2012 M54 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET
REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UR345
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KCYS [252128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 252128
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
227 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 NE CENTENNIAL 41.44N 105.96W
11/25/2012 M59 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET
REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION WY26
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
227 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 NE CENTENNIAL 41.44N 105.96W
11/25/2012 M59 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET
REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION WY26
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KTFX [252124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 252124
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
224 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM SNOW 5 W BIG SKY 45.27N 111.43W
11/25/2012 M4.0 INCH MADISON MT MESONET
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AT THE LONE
MOUNTAIN SNOTEL.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
224 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM SNOW 5 W BIG SKY 45.27N 111.43W
11/25/2012 M4.0 INCH MADISON MT MESONET
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AT THE LONE
MOUNTAIN SNOTEL.
&&
$$
NJL
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KTFX [252121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 252121
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
221 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM SLEET 5 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.59N 111.12W
11/25/2012 M5.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
221 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM SLEET 5 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.59N 111.12W
11/25/2012 M5.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
&&
$$
NJL
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KTFX [252119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 252119
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
219 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 AM SNOW 10 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.52N 111.13W
11/25/2012 M5.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
219 PM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 AM SNOW 10 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.52N 111.13W
11/25/2012 M5.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
&&
$$
NJL
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KGRR [251305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRR 251305
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
804 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW 3 WNW HESPERIA 43.58N 86.10W
11/25/2012 M1.8 INCH OCEANA MI CO-OP OBSERVER
LIQUID EQUIVELANT OF 0.15 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW DEPTH OF 2.0
INCHES
&&
$$
JMAPLES
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
804 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW 3 WNW HESPERIA 43.58N 86.10W
11/25/2012 M1.8 INCH OCEANA MI CO-OP OBSERVER
LIQUID EQUIVELANT OF 0.15 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW DEPTH OF 2.0
INCHES
&&
$$
JMAPLES
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KSGX [251305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KSGX 251305
LSRSGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
504 AM PST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0212 AM DENSE FOG SAN DIEGO 32.72N 117.16W
11/25/2012 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER IN ALLIED GARDENS REPORTED VISIBILITY LESS THAN A
1/4 MILE.
0446 AM DENSE FOG FULLERTON 33.88N 117.93W
11/25/2012 ORANGE CA ASOS
FULLERTON AIRPORT ASOS HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF
A 1/4 MILE OR LESS SINCE 253 AM.
0446 AM DENSE FOG CARLSBAD 33.12N 117.29W
11/25/2012 SAN DIEGO CA ASOS
PALOMAR AIRPORT ASOS IN CARLSBAD HAS BEEN REPORTING
VISIBILITIES OF A 1/4 MILE OR LESS SINCE 941 PM.
0446 AM DENSE FOG SANTA ANA 33.74N 117.88W
11/25/2012 ORANGE CA ASOS
JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT ASOS HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES
OF A 1/4 MILE SINCE 318 AM.
0446 AM DENSE FOG 5 SSW MIRAMAR 32.82N 117.14W
11/25/2012 SAN DIEGO CA ASOS
MONTGOMERY FIELD AIRPORT ASOS HAS BEEN REPORTING
VISIBILITIES OF A 1/4 MILE OR LESS SINCE 1253 AM.
0446 AM DENSE FOG MIRAMAR 32.89N 117.12W
11/25/2012 SAN DIEGO CA ASOS
MIRAMAR AIRPORT ASOS HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF
1/16 OF A MILE SINCE 1255 AM.
0446 AM DENSE FOG 3 WNW OTAY MESA 32.57N 116.98W
11/25/2012 SAN DIEGO CA ASOS
BROWN FIELD AIRPORT ASOS HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES
OF A 1/4 MILE OR LESS SINCE 853 PM EXCEPT BETWEEN 123 AM
AND 153 AM WHEN A VISIBILITY HIGHER THAN 1/4 MILE WAS
REPORTED.
&&
$$
SHARRISO
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LSRSGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
504 AM PST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0212 AM DENSE FOG SAN DIEGO 32.72N 117.16W
11/25/2012 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER IN ALLIED GARDENS REPORTED VISIBILITY LESS THAN A
1/4 MILE.
0446 AM DENSE FOG FULLERTON 33.88N 117.93W
11/25/2012 ORANGE CA ASOS
FULLERTON AIRPORT ASOS HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF
A 1/4 MILE OR LESS SINCE 253 AM.
0446 AM DENSE FOG CARLSBAD 33.12N 117.29W
11/25/2012 SAN DIEGO CA ASOS
PALOMAR AIRPORT ASOS IN CARLSBAD HAS BEEN REPORTING
VISIBILITIES OF A 1/4 MILE OR LESS SINCE 941 PM.
0446 AM DENSE FOG SANTA ANA 33.74N 117.88W
11/25/2012 ORANGE CA ASOS
JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT ASOS HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES
OF A 1/4 MILE SINCE 318 AM.
0446 AM DENSE FOG 5 SSW MIRAMAR 32.82N 117.14W
11/25/2012 SAN DIEGO CA ASOS
MONTGOMERY FIELD AIRPORT ASOS HAS BEEN REPORTING
VISIBILITIES OF A 1/4 MILE OR LESS SINCE 1253 AM.
0446 AM DENSE FOG MIRAMAR 32.89N 117.12W
11/25/2012 SAN DIEGO CA ASOS
MIRAMAR AIRPORT ASOS HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF
1/16 OF A MILE SINCE 1255 AM.
0446 AM DENSE FOG 3 WNW OTAY MESA 32.57N 116.98W
11/25/2012 SAN DIEGO CA ASOS
BROWN FIELD AIRPORT ASOS HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES
OF A 1/4 MILE OR LESS SINCE 853 PM EXCEPT BETWEEN 123 AM
AND 153 AM WHEN A VISIBILITY HIGHER THAN 1/4 MILE WAS
REPORTED.
&&
$$
SHARRISO
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 251257
SWODY1
SPC AC 251254
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
RELATIVELY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK LOW LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
OK/TX...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OVER PARTS OF OK/AR/LA/MS COULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD 26/12Z.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT 10 PERCENT THUNDER
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE...DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
..HART/DISPIGNA.. 11/25/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 251254
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
RELATIVELY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK LOW LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
OK/TX...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OVER PARTS OF OK/AR/LA/MS COULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD 26/12Z.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT 10 PERCENT THUNDER
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE...DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
..HART/DISPIGNA.. 11/25/2012
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KGRB [251250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRB 251250
LSRGRB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
650 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0649 AM SNOW WINCHESTER 46.21N 89.90W
11/25/2012 M2.0 INCH VILAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
TERIE
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LSRGRB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
650 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0649 AM SNOW WINCHESTER 46.21N 89.90W
11/25/2012 M2.0 INCH VILAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
TERIE
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KGRR [251247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRR 251247
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW N BIG RAPIDS 43.70N 85.48W
11/25/2012 M1.1 INCH MECOSTA MI CO-OP OBSERVER
WATER EQUIVELANT OF 0.10 INCHES.
0700 AM SNOW 5 WSW FREMONT 43.45N 86.03W
11/25/2012 M1.0 INCH NEWAYGO MI CO-OP OBSERVER
WATER EQUIVELANT OF 0.08 INCHES.
&&
$$
JMAPLES
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW N BIG RAPIDS 43.70N 85.48W
11/25/2012 M1.1 INCH MECOSTA MI CO-OP OBSERVER
WATER EQUIVELANT OF 0.10 INCHES.
0700 AM SNOW 5 WSW FREMONT 43.45N 86.03W
11/25/2012 M1.0 INCH NEWAYGO MI CO-OP OBSERVER
WATER EQUIVELANT OF 0.08 INCHES.
&&
$$
JMAPLES
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KGRR [251132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRR 251132
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
632 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 AM SNOW 4 NW HESPERIA 43.62N 86.09W
11/25/2012 M2.3 INCH OCEANA MI TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER OBSERVATION AT DARLINGTON LAKE, MI
&&
$$
JMAPLES
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
632 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 AM SNOW 4 NW HESPERIA 43.62N 86.09W
11/25/2012 M2.3 INCH OCEANA MI TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER OBSERVATION AT DARLINGTON LAKE, MI
&&
$$
JMAPLES
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 251001
SWOD48
SPC AC 251000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BASED ON 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND THE INITIAL
PREVALENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE/STABLE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
WILL LIKELY YIELD A QUIET PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO DEEP CONVECTION
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND /DAYS 7-8/ AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONT...BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY.
..GUYER.. 11/25/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 251000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BASED ON 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND THE INITIAL
PREVALENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE/STABLE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
WILL LIKELY YIELD A QUIET PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO DEEP CONVECTION
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND /DAYS 7-8/ AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONT...BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY.
..GUYER.. 11/25/2012
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 250829
SWODY3
SPC AC 250828
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ON TUESDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES AND AN EASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
/MAINLY PRIOR TO EVENING/ ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION/SOUTHEAST
STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED OWING TO
WEAK LAPSE RATES/CONSIDERABLY LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A FRONTAL BAND NEARING THE CA COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS TSTM POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS VERY
MARGINAL/UNCERTAIN.
..GUYER.. 11/25/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 250828
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ON TUESDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES AND AN EASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
/MAINLY PRIOR TO EVENING/ ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION/SOUTHEAST
STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED OWING TO
WEAK LAPSE RATES/CONSIDERABLY LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A FRONTAL BAND NEARING THE CA COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS TSTM POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS VERY
MARGINAL/UNCERTAIN.
..GUYER.. 11/25/2012
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KTFX [250745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KTFX 250745
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1245 AM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
11/24/2012 M7.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 10 HOURS AT THE BADGER
PASS SNOTEL. ELEVATION 6900 FEET.
0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
11/24/2012 M10.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 8 HOURS AT THE PIKE
CREEK SNOTEL. ELEVATION 5900 FEET.
1000 AM HEAVY SNOW 20 WSW DUPUYER 48.08N 112.90W
11/24/2012 M8.0 INCH TETON MT FOREST SERVICE
BADGER PASS SNOTEL REPORT OF 8 INCHES FROM MIDNIGHT TO
10 AM.
1225 PM SNOW 1 NW HEART BUTTE 48.30N 112.85W
11/24/2012 M3.0 INCH GLACIER MT CO-OP OBSERVER
SNOW FELL FOR AN HOUR WITH A TOTAL OF 3 INCHES ON THE
GROUND.
1000 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
11/24/2012 E14.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
ESTIMATED 14 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
THE PIKE CREEK SNOTEL. ELEVATION IS 5930 FEET.
1100 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
11/24/2012 E11.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
ESTIMATED 11 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
THE BADGER PASS SNOTEL. ELEVATION IS 6900 FEET. 8 INCHES
FELL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1245 AM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
11/24/2012 M7.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 10 HOURS AT THE BADGER
PASS SNOTEL. ELEVATION 6900 FEET.
0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
11/24/2012 M10.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 8 HOURS AT THE PIKE
CREEK SNOTEL. ELEVATION 5900 FEET.
1000 AM HEAVY SNOW 20 WSW DUPUYER 48.08N 112.90W
11/24/2012 M8.0 INCH TETON MT FOREST SERVICE
BADGER PASS SNOTEL REPORT OF 8 INCHES FROM MIDNIGHT TO
10 AM.
1225 PM SNOW 1 NW HEART BUTTE 48.30N 112.85W
11/24/2012 M3.0 INCH GLACIER MT CO-OP OBSERVER
SNOW FELL FOR AN HOUR WITH A TOTAL OF 3 INCHES ON THE
GROUND.
1000 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
11/24/2012 E14.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
ESTIMATED 14 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
THE PIKE CREEK SNOTEL. ELEVATION IS 5930 FEET.
1100 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
11/24/2012 E11.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
ESTIMATED 11 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
THE BADGER PASS SNOTEL. ELEVATION IS 6900 FEET. 8 INCHES
FELL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [250743]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS55 KTFX 250743
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1242 AM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
11/24/2012 E11.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
ESTIMATED 11 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
THE BADGER PASS SNOTEL. ELEVATION IS 6900 FEET. 8 INCHES
FELL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM.
&&
CORRECTED EVENT DATE...EVENT TIME
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1242 AM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
11/24/2012 E11.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
ESTIMATED 11 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
THE BADGER PASS SNOTEL. ELEVATION IS 6900 FEET. 8 INCHES
FELL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM.
&&
CORRECTED EVENT DATE...EVENT TIME
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [250741]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 250741
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1240 AM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM HEAVY SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
11/25/2012 E11.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
ESTIMATED 11 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
THE BADGER PASS SNOTEL. ELEVATION IS 6900 FEET. 8 INCHES
FELL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1240 AM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM HEAVY SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
11/25/2012 E11.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
ESTIMATED 11 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
THE BADGER PASS SNOTEL. ELEVATION IS 6900 FEET. 8 INCHES
FELL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [250734]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 250734
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1234 AM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
11/24/2012 E14.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
ESTIMATED 14 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
THE PIKE CREEK SNOTEL. ELEVATION IS 5930 FEET.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1234 AM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
11/24/2012 E14.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
ESTIMATED 14 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
THE PIKE CREEK SNOTEL. ELEVATION IS 5930 FEET.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [250731]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS55 KTFX 250731
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1231 AM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM HEAVY SNOW 20 WSW DUPUYER 48.08N 112.90W
11/24/2012 M8.0 INCH TETON MT FOREST SERVICE
BADGER PASS SNOTEL REPORT OF 8 INCHES FROM MIDNIGHT TO
10 AM.
&&
CORRECTED EVENT TIME
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1231 AM MST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM HEAVY SNOW 20 WSW DUPUYER 48.08N 112.90W
11/24/2012 M8.0 INCH TETON MT FOREST SERVICE
BADGER PASS SNOTEL REPORT OF 8 INCHES FROM MIDNIGHT TO
10 AM.
&&
CORRECTED EVENT TIME
$$
BRUSDA
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 250658
SWODY2
SPC AC 250656
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EAST TX/ARKLATEX...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO
MONDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY GRADUAL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THIS FRONT BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
...EAST TX/FAR SOUTHEAST OK/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR INTO MONDAY AS THE REGION
INCREASINGLY COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD/MODERATELY STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
INTERCEPT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AS
MUCH AS 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TX AND
ADJACENT WESTERN LA/FAR SOUTHWEST AR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOME TIMING/SPATIAL VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS IN THE SHORT-TERM
AMONGST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...BUT SCENARIO APPEARS TO
WARRANT AT LEAST A MARGINAL CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT/POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE WAVE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. SUCH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS EAST TX...EXTREME SOUTHEAST OK...SOUTHERN AR...AND
WESTERN/NORTHERN LA. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WEAK TO MODERATE
BUOYANCY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
/30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SOME POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/BOWS. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OTHERWISE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING...PRIOR TO A PROBABLE DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY BY
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
..GUYER.. 11/25/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 250656
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EAST TX/ARKLATEX...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO
MONDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY GRADUAL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THIS FRONT BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
...EAST TX/FAR SOUTHEAST OK/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR INTO MONDAY AS THE REGION
INCREASINGLY COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD/MODERATELY STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
INTERCEPT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AS
MUCH AS 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TX AND
ADJACENT WESTERN LA/FAR SOUTHWEST AR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOME TIMING/SPATIAL VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS IN THE SHORT-TERM
AMONGST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...BUT SCENARIO APPEARS TO
WARRANT AT LEAST A MARGINAL CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT/POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE WAVE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. SUCH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS EAST TX...EXTREME SOUTHEAST OK...SOUTHERN AR...AND
WESTERN/NORTHERN LA. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WEAK TO MODERATE
BUOYANCY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
/30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SOME POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/BOWS. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OTHERWISE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING...PRIOR TO A PROBABLE DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY BY
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
..GUYER.. 11/25/2012
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KARX [250643]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KARX 250643
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1242 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1241 AM SNOW CURTISS 44.95N 90.44W
11/25/2012 E0.3 INCH CLARK WI PUBLIC
&&
$$
DAS
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LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1242 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1241 AM SNOW CURTISS 44.95N 90.44W
11/25/2012 E0.3 INCH CLARK WI PUBLIC
&&
$$
DAS
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KARX [250630]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KARX 250630
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1228 AM SNOW MEDFORD 45.14N 90.35W
11/25/2012 E0.3 INCH TAYLOR WI LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
$$
DAS
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LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1228 AM SNOW MEDFORD 45.14N 90.35W
11/25/2012 E0.3 INCH TAYLOR WI LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
$$
DAS
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 250539
SWODY1
SPC AC 250537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A PROGRESSIVE AND BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN UNITED STATES. ONE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GLANCE THE NRN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN
AND NRN ROCKIES BEFORE APPROACHING THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXPANDING
COLD/CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT SETTLES
SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE THE NRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT TRACKS
EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS/OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
A WEAK SFC CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD/ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX...WHILE AN ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST
OF THE SERN UNTIED STATES. THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL FOSTER
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY...WITH MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE TX COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED FROM E TX AND SERN OK EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER. ACROSS
THIS REGION FOR TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION
FOR AN ELEVATED PARCEL WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED IN MANY
LOCATIONS...AND AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL ASCENT LYING WELL TO
THE NW/NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND GIVEN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL MASS
FLUX/WAA REGIME...THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS
UNLIKELY...AND A GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA IS NOT NEEDED ATTM.
..COHEN/DARROW.. 11/25/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 250537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A PROGRESSIVE AND BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN UNITED STATES. ONE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GLANCE THE NRN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN
AND NRN ROCKIES BEFORE APPROACHING THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXPANDING
COLD/CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT SETTLES
SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE THE NRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT TRACKS
EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS/OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
A WEAK SFC CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD/ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX...WHILE AN ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST
OF THE SERN UNTIED STATES. THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL FOSTER
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY...WITH MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE TX COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED FROM E TX AND SERN OK EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER. ACROSS
THIS REGION FOR TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION
FOR AN ELEVATED PARCEL WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED IN MANY
LOCATIONS...AND AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL ASCENT LYING WELL TO
THE NW/NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND GIVEN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL MASS
FLUX/WAA REGIME...THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS
UNLIKELY...AND A GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA IS NOT NEEDED ATTM.
..COHEN/DARROW.. 11/25/2012
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KDLH [250517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 250517
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1117 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1117 PM SNOW CLOQUET 46.73N 92.49W
11/24/2012 M1.5 INCH CARLTON MN NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
$$
CCHRIST
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LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1117 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1117 PM SNOW CLOQUET 46.73N 92.49W
11/24/2012 M1.5 INCH CARLTON MN NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
$$
CCHRIST
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