DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250539
SWODY1
SPC AC 250537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A PROGRESSIVE AND BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN UNITED STATES. ONE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GLANCE THE NRN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN
AND NRN ROCKIES BEFORE APPROACHING THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXPANDING
COLD/CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT SETTLES
SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE THE NRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT TRACKS
EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS/OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

A WEAK SFC CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD/ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX...WHILE AN ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST
OF THE SERN UNTIED STATES. THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL FOSTER
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY...WITH MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE TX COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED FROM E TX AND SERN OK EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER. ACROSS
THIS REGION FOR TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION
FOR AN ELEVATED PARCEL WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED IN MANY
LOCATIONS...AND AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL ASCENT LYING WELL TO
THE NW/NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND GIVEN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL MASS
FLUX/WAA REGIME...THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS
UNLIKELY...AND A GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA IS NOT NEEDED ATTM.

..COHEN/DARROW.. 11/25/2012

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