Thursday, January 5, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060458
SWODY1
SPC AC 060457

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CST THU JAN 05 2012

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL IMPACT THE CONUS TODAY. GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE /EXCEPT NEAR THE GULF
COAST/...NONE WILL CREATE MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS. THE LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH ALIGNED FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER MS VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN SOMEWHAT AS ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKS SEWD
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE WRN GULF TRACKS E/NEWD NEAR THE GULF COAST.
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING WILL EXIST
NEAR THE FAR SE TX COAST INTO SRN MS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.
FINALLY...A THIRD IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AMPLIFYING AS IT TRACKS S/SEWD THROUGH CA/NV.

AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MOVES EWD INTO
ERN CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH AND
TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...FAR SE TX COAST INTO SRN MS...
WHILE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WRN
GULF COAST TODAY /DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S/
DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONALLY...WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
INHIBIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH DESPITE MUCAPE APPROACHING 750-1000 J/KG.
THEREFORE EXPECT VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
WITHOUT ANY STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT...KEEPING THUNDER PROBS
BELOW 10 PERCENT.

..LEITMAN/KERR.. 01/06/2012

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KTFX [060041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 060041
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
541 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 S CHINOOK 48.44N 109.23W
01/05/2012 M62 MPH BLAINE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

62 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AROUND NOON.


&&

$$

NJL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060038
SWODY1
SPC AC 060036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST THU JAN 05 2012

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TEXAS GULF COAST...
LATEST OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING HAS TAKEN PLACE ALONG TEXAS COASTAL AREAS TO
SUPPORT WEAK CAPE. HOWEVER...CAPPING LAYERS ARE STILL PRESENT.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF
THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WARM ADVECTION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...AND DEEP LAYER
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS.
COASTAL WATERS WILL ALSO PROBABLY REMAIN FREE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION OVER THE OPEN WATERS...ROUGHLY 100-120 MILES EAST OF
BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI.

..KERR.. 01/06/2012

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KTFX [060016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 060016
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
515 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE PENDROY 48.04N 112.20W
01/04/2012 M53 MPH TETON MT MESONET

53 MPH GUST AT RICE RIDGE MSCN SITE.

0345 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW BROWNING 48.60N 113.11W
01/04/2012 M59 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

59 MPH WIND GUST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE BROWNING
AIRSTRIP.

0351 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
01/04/2012 M67 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

67 MPH WIND GUST AT TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE DOT SITE.
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 MPH.

0353 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROY 47.33N 108.92W
01/04/2012 M52 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

52 MPH WIND GUST AT OSCAR RAWS.

0405 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
01/04/2012 M70 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

70 MPH WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE RAWS. SUSTAINED WINDS
AT 44 MPH.

0542 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.61N 112.38W
01/04/2012 M66 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

66 MPH WIND GUST AT CUT BANK AIRPORT ASOS.

0605 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
01/04/2012 M72 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

72 MPH GUST AT HEART BUTTE RAWS.

0605 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.61W
01/04/2012 M78 MPH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.07N 112.33W
01/04/2012 M64 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

64 MPH WIND GUST ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AT THE DOT SENSOR
JUST NORTHWEST OF PENDROY.

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
01/04/2012 M76 MPH TETON MT MESONET

76 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DELLWO MCSCN SITE ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
01/05/2012 M81 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

81 MPH WIND GUST THIS MORNING AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS
LOCATION.

0237 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.07N 112.33W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

60 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTHWEST OF
PENDROY THIS MORNING.

0237 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNW SUNBURST 48.96N 111.94W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

60 MPH WIND GUST EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE DOT SENSOR
JUST SOUTH OF SWEET GRASS.

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S CHINOOK 48.43N 109.23W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH BLAINE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

60 MPH WIND GUST THIS MORNING.

0630 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE PENDROY 48.04N 112.20W
01/05/2012 M58 MPH TETON MT MESONET

58 MPH GUST AT RICE RIDGE MCSCN SITE.

1030 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW CASCADE 47.26N 111.72W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH CASCADE MT PUBLIC

60 MPH WIND GUST NEAR CASCADE.

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 30 N GILDFORD 49.00N 110.22W
01/05/2012 E60 MPH HILL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH THIS
MORNING.

1154 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 NNW JOPLIN 48.74N 110.93W
01/05/2012 M61 MPH LIBERTY MT MESONET

PEAK GUST OF 61 MPH SINCE MIDNIGHT.

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SE DUTTON 47.79N 111.60W
01/05/2012 M55 MPH TETON MT MESONET

55 MPH WIND GUST A DAHLMAN MSCN SITE.

0221 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE DENTON 47.30N 109.85W
01/05/2012 M59 MPH FERGUS MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

59 MPH GUST AT EAST OF DENTON DOT SITE.

0234 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA 47.95N 110.50W
01/05/2012 M55 MPH CHOUTEAU MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

55 MPH WIND GUST AT LOMA DOT SITE.

0253 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROY 47.33N 108.92W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

60 MPH WIND GUST AT OSCAR RAWS.

0350 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E GEYSER 47.28N 110.35W
01/05/2012 M53 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET

53 MPH WIND GUST AT BRAVO RAWS.

0353 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROY 47.33N 108.92W
01/05/2012 M66 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

66 MPH WIND GUST AT OSCAR RAWS.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [060012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 060012
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
512 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0234 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA 47.95N 110.50W
01/05/2012 M55 MPH CHOUTEAU MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

55 MPH WIND GUST AT LOMA DOT SITE.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [060009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 060009
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
509 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E GEYSER 47.28N 110.35W
01/05/2012 M53 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET

53 MPH WIND GUST AT BRAVO RAWS.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [060008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 060008
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
508 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROY 47.33N 108.92W
01/05/2012 M66 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

66 MPH WIND GUST AT OSCAR RAWS.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [052239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 052239
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
338 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE PENDROY 48.04N 112.20W
01/05/2012 M58 MPH TETON MT MESONET

58 MPH GUST AT RICE RIDGE MCSCN SITE.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KGGW [052238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KGGW 052238
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
338 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0749 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.98N 108.31W
01/05/2012 M73.00 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

MALTA SOUTH DOT SENSOR

1030 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.98N 108.31W
01/05/2012 M73.00 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

MALTA SOUTH DOT SENSOR. GUSTS DROPPED BELOW 58 MPH AT
1150 AM.

1041 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 S ZORTMAN 47.70N 108.53W
01/05/2012 M58.00 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

MANNING CORRAL DOGTOWN RAWS STATION


&&

$$

TEDJ

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KTFX [052233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 052233
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
333 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW CASCADE 47.26N 111.72W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH CASCADE MT PUBLIC

60 MPH WIND GUST NEAR CASCADE.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [052209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 052209
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
309 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROY 47.33N 108.92W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

60 MPH WIND GUST AT OSCAR RAWS.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [052155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 052155
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
255 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SE DUTTON 47.79N 111.60W
01/05/2012 M55 MPH TETON MT MESONET

55 MPH WIND GUST A DAHLMAN MSCN SITE.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [052139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 052139
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
239 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0221 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE DENTON 47.30N 109.85W
01/05/2012 M59 MPH FERGUS MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

59 MPH GUST AT EAST OF DENTON DOT SITE.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KMSO [052139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 052139
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
238 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0214 PM NON-TSTM WND GST STEVENSVILLE 46.51N 114.09W
01/05/2012 M63 MPH RAVALLI MT MESONET

STEVENSVILLE RAWS AT 3365 FT.


&&

$$

DTN

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KMSO [052104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 052104
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
204 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0129 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE BUTTE 45.95N 112.50W
01/05/2012 M45.00 MPH SILVER BOW MT ASOS


&&

$$

DTN

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KCYS [052054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 052054
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
154 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
01/05/2012 M50 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 41 MPH.


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KMSO [052016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 052016
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
116 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0102 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW VICTOR 46.44N 114.23W
01/05/2012 M41.00 MPH RAVALLI MT MESONET

SMITH CREEK RAWS AT 5650 FT.


&&

$$

DTN

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KGGW [052014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 052014
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
114 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.98N 108.31W
01/05/2012 M73 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

MALTA SOUTH DOT SENSOR. GUSTS DROPPED BELOW 58 MPH AT
1150 AM.


&&

$$

TEDJ

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KCYS [052001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 052001
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
100 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 S WHEATLAND 41.92N 104.96W
01/05/2012 M63 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 44 MPH.

1220 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 7 NW ELK MOUNTAIN 41.75N 106.51W
01/05/2012 M47 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

GUSTING TO 53 MPH.


&&

$$

HAMMER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051950
SWODY1
SPC AC 051948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST THU JAN 05 2012

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGE TO 1630Z FORECAST.

..PETERS.. 01/05/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST THU JAN 05 2012/

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
PATTERN WILL FURTHER DEAMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS ERN TROUGH CONTINUES E
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND BC/WA DISTURBANCE SHEARS E ACROSS MT/ND.
TSTM RISK WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE OVER THE CONUS GIVEN VERY DRY
AND/OR STABLE LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER MOST AREAS.

MID LVL WARMING IN WAKE OF IMPULSE CROSSING WA/BC SHOULD LIMIT ANY
RISK FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING ALONG THE NRN WA CST.
ELSEWHERE...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO...DOWNSTREAM FROM LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA.
MID LVL WARM LAYER AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT /PER
SATELLITE DERIVED PW DATA/ SHOULD PROHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE S TX GULF CST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

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KMSO [051947]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 051947
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1246 PM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1214 PM NON-TSTM WND GST STEVENSVILLE 46.51N 114.09W
01/05/2012 M56 MPH RAVALLI MT MESONET

STEVENSVILLE RAWS AT 3365 FT, FOREST SERVICE PERSONNEL
REPORTED A STRONG WIND GUST AROUND THIS TIME.


&&

$$

DTN

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KTFX [051840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051840
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 NNE AUGUSTA 47.65N 112.29W
01/04/2012 M61 MPH TETON MT MESONET

61 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED.


&&

$$

NJL

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KTFX [051829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 051829
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1129 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SE HILGER 47.18N 109.25W
01/04/2012 M60 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

60 MPH WIND GUST THIS MORNING AT THE JUDITH PEAK RAWS
LOCATION.

0935 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
01/04/2012 M57 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

57 MPH WIND GUST THIS MORNING AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST
EAST OF EAST GLACIER PARK.

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
01/04/2012 M77 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

77 MPH WIND GUST THIS MORNING AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS
LOCATION.

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S CHINOOK 48.43N 109.23W
01/04/2012 M60 MPH BLAINE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

60 MPH WIND GUST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

1030 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SW CUT BANK 48.61N 112.38W
01/04/2012 GLACIER MT PUBLIC

POWER LINE CAME DOWN IN WIND AND STARTED A BRIEF GRASS
FIRE.

1230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
01/04/2012 M59 MPH TETON MT MESONET

59 MPH WIND GUST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE DELLWO
MCSCN SITE.

1245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW BROWNING 48.60N 113.11W
01/04/2012 M60 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

60 MPH WIND GUST A BROWNING AIRSTRIP K8S0

0130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SE HILGER 47.18N 109.25W
01/04/2012 M67 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

67 MPH WIND GUST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE JUDITH
PEAK RAWS LOCATION.

0205 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.61N 112.38W
01/04/2012 M58 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

58 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT CUT BANK ASOS.

0215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 NNE AUGUSTA 47.65N 112.29W
01/04/2012 M59 MPH TETON MT MESONET

WINDS GUSTING TO 59 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS AT 43 MPH.

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 NNE AUGUSTA 47.65N 112.29W
01/04/2012 M61 MPH TETON MT MESONET

58 MPH GUST AT HODGKISS MSCN SITE.

0330 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE PENDROY 48.04N 112.20W
01/04/2012 M53 MPH TETON MT MESONET

53 MPH GUST AT RICE RIDGE MSCN SITE.

0345 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW BROWNING 48.60N 113.11W
01/04/2012 M59 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

59 MPH WIND GUST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE BROWNING
AIRSTRIP.

0351 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
01/04/2012 M67 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

67 MPH WIND GUST AT TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE DOT SITE.
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 MPH.

0353 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROY 47.33N 108.92W
01/04/2012 M52 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

52 MPH WIND GUST AT OSCAR RAWS.

0405 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
01/04/2012 M70 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

70 MPH WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE RAWS. SUSTAINED WINDS
AT 44 MPH.

0542 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.61N 112.38W
01/04/2012 M66 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

66 MPH WIND GUST AT CUT BANK AIRPORT ASOS.

0605 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
01/04/2012 M72 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

72 MPH GUST AT HEART BUTTE RAWS.

0605 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.61W
01/04/2012 M78 MPH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.07N 112.33W
01/04/2012 M64 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

64 MPH WIND GUST ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AT THE DOT SENSOR
JUST NORTHWEST OF PENDROY.

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
01/04/2012 M76 MPH TETON MT MESONET

76 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DELLWO MCSCN SITE ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
01/05/2012 M81 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

81 MPH WIND GUST THIS MORNING AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS
LOCATION.

0237 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.07N 112.33W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

60 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTHWEST OF
PENDROY THIS MORNING.

0237 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNW SUNBURST 48.96N 111.94W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

60 MPH WIND GUST EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE DOT SENSOR
JUST SOUTH OF SWEET GRASS.

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S CHINOOK 48.43N 109.23W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH BLAINE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

60 MPH WIND GUST THIS MORNING.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [051828]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 051828
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1122 AM MST THU JAN 5 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1047 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WSW GREAT FALLS 47.48N 111.37W
01/05/2012 M51 MPH CASCADE MT ASOS

51 MPH WIND GUST AT THE GREAT FALLS AIRPORT.

0630 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E PENDROY 48.04N 112.20W
01/05/2012 M58 MPH TETON MT MESONET

0413 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.07N 112.33W
01/05/2012 M59 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAY

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW KEVIN 48.74N 111.98W
01/05/2012 M66 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET

66 MPH WIND GUST AT THE SCOTT BYE FARM

1238 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNW SUNBURST 48.96N 111.94W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAY

1256 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW CUT BANK 48.61N 112.36W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

REPORTED AT CUT BANK MUNICIPAL AIRPORT


&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KTFX [051824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051824
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1122 AM MST THU JAN 5 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1047 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WSW GREAT FALLS 47.48N 111.37W
01/05/2012 M51 MPH CASCADE MT ASOS

51 MPH WIND GUST AT THE GREAT FALLS AIRPORT.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMSO [051820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 051820
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1119 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1031 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NNW AVON 46.69N 112.66W
01/05/2012 M45 MPH POWELL MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

AVON NORTH MT-141 MP 8.1 AT 5085 FT


&&

$$

DTN

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KTFX [051804]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051804
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1104 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S CHINOOK 48.43N 109.23W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH BLAINE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

60 MPH WIND GUST THIS MORNING.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [051803]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051803
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1103 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S CHINOOK 48.43N 109.23W
01/04/2012 M60 MPH BLAINE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

60 MPH WIND GUST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KGGW [051800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 051800
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1100 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1041 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 S ZORTMAN 47.70N 108.53W
01/05/2012 M58 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

MANNING CORRAL DOGTOWN RAWS STATION


&&

$$

TEDJ

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KMSO [051751]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 051751
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1050 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E ELLISTON 46.56N 112.37W
01/05/2012 M43 MPH POWELL MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MACDONALD PASS AT 6325 FT


&&

$$

DTN

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KMSO [051728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KMSO 051728
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1028 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1206 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 ENE LIBBY 48.43N 115.40W
01/05/2012 M58.00 MPH LINCOLN MT MESONET

ZONOLITE RAWS AT 4204 FEET

0812 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 NW POLEBRIDGE 48.94N 114.55W
01/05/2012 M47.00 MPH FLATHEAD MT MESONET

SHEEPHERDER HILL RAWS AT 3090 FEET


&&

$$

GIBSON

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 051725
SWODY2
SPC AC 051724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST THU JAN 05 2012

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL DEAMPLIFY ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES EWD...
MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH EVOLVING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING DAY 2. MEANWHILE...
UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST LATE DAY 2 INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO NRN CA AND NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE..A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCING E/SEWD
THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING DAY 1 IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FURTHER E/SEWD ON FRIDAY SPREADING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE TN VALLEY TO AR FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

...WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER MS VALLEY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER MS VALLEY ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK/SRN STREAM LOW-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND WITHIN
WEAK MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE WRN/NWRN PERIPHERY OF AN ERN GULF
SURFACE HIGH. A PRE-EXISTING MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER WILL TEND TO
INHIBIT UPDRAFTS FROM BECOMING DEEP ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
WITH NWD EXTENT FROM THE COAST. DESPITE RATHER WEAK MIDLEVEL ASCENT
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA...LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND SURFACE HEATING
ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN/CENTRAL LA AND SWRN MS SUGGEST
SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM SRN AR TO PARTS OF
SRN TN AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THESE AREAS...BUT THE WARM MIDLEVEL
LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. OVERALL WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS.. 01/05/2012

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KMSO [051716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 051716
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1016 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N GRANGEVILLE 45.94N 116.12W
01/05/2012 M42.00 MPH IDAHO ID AWOS

0606 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E DARBY 46.02N 114.07W
01/05/2012 M45.00 MPH RAVALLI MT MESONET

DEER MTN RAWS AT 7282 FEET

0706 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 ENE LIBBY 48.43N 115.40W
01/05/2012 M0.00 MPH LINCOLN MT MESONET

ZONOLITE RAWS AT 4204 FEET

0812 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 S SWAN LAKE 47.78N 113.84W
01/05/2012 M45.00 MPH LAKE MT MESONET

MONTANA DOT MESONET SITE

0812 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 NW POLEBRIDGE 48.94N 114.55W
01/05/2012 M17.00 MPH FLATHEAD MT MESONET

SHEEPHERDER HILL RAWS AT 3090 FEET

0842 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 E ESSEX 48.28N 113.42W
01/05/2012 M56.00 MPH FLATHEAD MT MESONET

FIELDING RAWS AT 4641 FEET

0955 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S GRANGEVILLE 45.86N 116.12W
01/05/2012 M51.00 MPH IDAHO ID MESONET

HIGH CAMP AT 6110 FEET


&&

$$

GIBSON

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KGGW [051642]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 051642
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
942 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0749 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.98N 108.31W
01/05/2012 M73 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

MALTA SOUTH DOT SENSOR


&&

$$

TEDJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051627
SWODY1
SPC AC 051625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST THU JAN 05 2012

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
PATTERN WILL FURTHER DEAMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS ERN TROUGH CONTINUES E
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND BC/WA DISTURBANCE SHEARS E ACROSS MT/ND.
TSTM RISK WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE OVER THE CONUS GIVEN VERY DRY
AND/OR STABLE LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER MOST AREAS.

MID LVL WARMING IN WAKE OF IMPULSE CROSSING WA/BC SHOULD LIMIT ANY
RISK FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING ALONG THE NRN WA CST.
ELSEWHERE...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO...DOWNSTREAM FROM LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA.
MID LVL WARM LAYER AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT /PER
SATELLITE DERIVED PW DATA/ SHOULD PROHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE S TX GULF CST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 01/05/2012

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KTFX [051524]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051524
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
824 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SE HILGER 47.18N 109.25W
01/04/2012 M67 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

67 MPH WIND GUST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE JUDITH
PEAK RAWS LOCATION.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [051522]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051522
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
822 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW BROWNING 48.60N 113.11W
01/04/2012 M59 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

59 MPH WIND GUST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE BROWNING
AIRSTRIP.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [051516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051516
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
815 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0237 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNW SUNBURST 48.96N 111.94W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

60 MPH WIND GUST EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE DOT SENSOR
JUST SOUTH OF SWEET GRASS.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [051513]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051513
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
813 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
01/04/2012 M76 MPH TETON MT MESONET

76 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DELLWO MCSCN SITE ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [051511]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051511
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
811 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.07N 112.33W
01/04/2012 M64 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

64 MPH WIND GUST ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AT THE DOT SENSOR
JUST NORTHWEST OF PENDROY.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [051506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051506
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
806 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
01/05/2012 M81 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

81 MPH WIND GUST THIS MORNING AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS
LOCATION.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [051503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051503
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
803 AM MST THU JAN 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0237 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.07N 112.33W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

60 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTHWEST OF
PENDROY THIS MORNING.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [051355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051355
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
652 AM MST THU JAN 5 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE PENDROY 48.04N 112.20W
01/05/2012 M58 MPH TETON MT MESONET

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051250
SWODY1
SPC AC 051248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST THU JAN 05 2012

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
TSTM RISK ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE VERY LOW TO NIL TDY/TONIGHT OWING
TO GENERALLY STABLE/DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS COVERING THE
COUNTRY.

A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRED PRIOR TO 12Z ACROSS WRN WA
AHEAD OF A COMPACT MID-LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE. THIS WAVE
WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TDY. IN
WAKE OF THE FEATURE...WARMING MID-LVL TEMPS WILL DECREASE THREATS
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING ALONG THE COAST IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS.

MEANWHILE...WEAK RETURN FLOW WAS NOTED ALONG THE WRN GULF COASTAL
REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT A MID-LVL WARM NOSE WILL CAP ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM
ACROSS SRN TX COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...NO TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED.

..RACY/ROGERS.. 01/05/2012

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KTFX [051221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051221
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 AM MST THU JAN 5 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0413 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.07N 112.33W
01/05/2012 M59 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAY

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KTFX [051057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051057
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
356 AM MST THU JAN 5 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW KEVIN 48.74N 111.98W
01/05/2012 M66 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET

66 MPH WIND GUST AT THE SCOTT BYE FARM

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KTFX [051048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 051048
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
346 AM MST THU JAN 5 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1238 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNW SUNBURST 48.96N 111.94W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAY

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 050941
SWOD48
SPC AC 050941

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CST THU JAN 05 2012

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET SUGGEST THAT SPLIT UPPER FLOW WITH A GENERAL
TENDENCY FOR LONGWAVE TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. FOCUS WILL BE ON EARLY NEXT WEEK
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AS IT
GRADUALLY EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS LESSER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABILITY INHERENTLY REMAINS REGARDING THE
STRENGTH/TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. WHAT CURRENTLY SEEMS
PROBABLE IS THAT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE/GENERALLY DEVELOP
EASTWARD EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS THROUGH
DAYS 5-7 MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ACCESS TO AN
INCREASINGLY/RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE BY AROUND DAY 5/MONDAY ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SOUTH TX
/MAINLY PER THE ECMWF/ AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. SUBSEQUENTLY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SPREADS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WHAT MAY ULTIMATELY BE A MORE PROBABLE SEVERE
THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION/PERHAPS MID-SOUTH ON
DAY 6/TUESDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS ON DAY
7/WEDNESDAY.

WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT SEEMS POSSIBLE DAY 5/MONDAY AND
MORE SO INTO DAYS 6/7 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED...SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME FRAME
REMAINS MODEST. AS SUCH...NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS
ARE CURRENTLY DELINEATED. SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL BETTER BE ABLE TO
ASCERTAIN THE MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE RISK DURING THIS
PERIOD.

..GUYER.. 01/05/2012

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KTFX [050834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 050834
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
132 AM MST THU JAN 5 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1256 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW CUT BANK 48.61N 112.36W
01/05/2012 M60 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

REPORTED AT CUT BANK MUNICIPAL AIRPORT

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 050823
SWODY3
SPC AC 050822

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST THU JAN 05 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON
SATURDAY...WITH DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WITHIN
A WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME...A FEW TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY ALONG/SOUTH OF A
DECELERATING COLD FRONT. EVEN SO...WEAK/NEBULOUS OVERALL FORCING FOR
ASCENT/MASS CONVERGENCE COINCIDENT WITH WEAK BUOYANCY IMPLIES ONLY A
LIMITED TSTM POTENTIAL AT BEST. SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 01/05/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 050657
SWODY2
SPC AC 050656

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST THU JAN 05 2012

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL INITIALLY PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY...AS LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OTHERWISE BECOMES MORE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS.
WHILE RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN MOST CONUS
LOCALES...ANY TSTM POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF A WEAK/SOUTHERN STREAM LOW-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH.

...WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER MS VALLEY...
GIVEN THE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...GRADUAL AIRMASS
MODIFICATION/MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN OF MEXICO/TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS...AND PERHAPS INLAND
FOR MAINLY NEAR-COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TX AND LA DURING THE
PERIOD. BUT EVEN SO...GIVEN WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WEAK LAPSE
RATES...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY TSTMS INLAND WILL REMAIN RATHER
ISOLATED WITHIN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY TSTM
SCENARIO OVERALL. A MID-LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL OTHERWISE TEND TO BE A
PROHIBITIVE FACTOR FOR TSTMS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INLAND ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY.

..GUYER.. 01/05/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050512
SWODY1
SPC AC 050510

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CST WED JAN 04 2012

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

QUIESCENT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
TODAY. ONLY TWO AREAS OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NOTED...ONE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...THE OTHER NEAR THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...ALBEIT VERY LOW...WILL EXIST NEAR THE LATTER
AREA...FROM FAR S TEXAS TO NEAR VCT AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER WRN MEXICO AS OF 05Z WILL CONTINUE TO
EJECT E/SEWD THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD S TX AND THE WRN GULF. DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM /AROUND 15 KT 0-6 KM
SHEAR/ AND RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVELS /0-2 DEG C AT 700 MB/ WILL
LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COAST...LIGHT SFC WINDS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE SUPPORT. THEREFORE...EXPECT
MOSTLY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH VERY LITTLE /LESS THAN 10 PERCENT/ IF
ANY LIGHTNING PRODUCTION GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT.

..LEITMAN/KERR.. 01/05/2012

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