SWODY2
SPC AC 050656
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST THU JAN 05 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL INITIALLY PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY...AS LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OTHERWISE BECOMES MORE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS.
WHILE RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN MOST CONUS
LOCALES...ANY TSTM POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF A WEAK/SOUTHERN STREAM LOW-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH.
...WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER MS VALLEY...
GIVEN THE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...GRADUAL AIRMASS
MODIFICATION/MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN OF MEXICO/TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS...AND PERHAPS INLAND
FOR MAINLY NEAR-COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TX AND LA DURING THE
PERIOD. BUT EVEN SO...GIVEN WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WEAK LAPSE
RATES...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY TSTMS INLAND WILL REMAIN RATHER
ISOLATED WITHIN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY TSTM
SCENARIO OVERALL. A MID-LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL OTHERWISE TEND TO BE A
PROHIBITIVE FACTOR FOR TSTMS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INLAND ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY.
..GUYER.. 01/05/2012
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