KICT [190216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 190216
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
916 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0857 PM FLOOD 1 N WILLOWBROOK 38.12N 97.99W
10/18/2008 RENO KS EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING ALONG COW CREEK IN NORTH CENTRAL RENO COUNTY.
56TH AVENUE NEAR PENNINGTON IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0857 PM FLOOD 5 E NICKERSON 38.15N 97.99W
10/18/2008 RENO KS EMERGENCY MNGR

THERE IS FLOODING ALONG COW CREEK IN NORTH CENTRAL RENO
COUNTY. 82ND AVENUE NEAR YAGGY ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
WATER.

&&

$$

SCHRECK

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KKEY [190134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 190134
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
933 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM WATER SPOUT 10 SSE KEY WEST 24.42N 81.69W
10/18/2008 GMZ054 FL NWS EMPLOYEE

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED A WATERSPOUT
APPROXIMATELY 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. THE
WATERSPOUT EXTENDED ABOUT HALFWAY DOWN TO THE HORIZON. NO
SPRAY RING WAS OBSERVED DUE TO AN OBSTRUCTED VIEW. THE
INITIAL CONDENSATION FUNNEL RECEDED TO THE CLOUD BASE AT
424 PM THEN REFORMED A THIN FUNNEL EXTENDING DOWN TO THE
HORIZON. MOVEMENT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATED AT
428 PM.

&&

$$

PFUENTES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190046
SWODY1
SPC AC 190043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OREGON/IDAHO...

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES SUGGEST MODESTLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...ROUGHLY 7 C/KM...ALONG MOISTENING CORRIDOR FROM
ORE INTO WRN MT. THIS BELT OF THICKER CLOUDINESS HAS DEEPER
CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN IT...AND AT TIMES ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS
OBSERVED. THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS COINCIDENT WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 10/19/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181944
SWODY1
SPC AC 181941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W...
SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SETTLE SLOWLY SEWD INTO WRN MT
THROUGH SRN ORE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH A GENERALLY LOW THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD
ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT THE THREAT FOR TSTMS.

...OUTER BANKS OF NC...
LATEST MODEL DATA /18Z RUC/15Z NAMKF/ REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING
MID-LEVEL COOLING TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS
PROGRESSES EWD. THIS WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION WITH PERHAPS A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
MUCH HIGHER TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE GULF STREAM.

..PETERS.. 10/18/2008

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KKEY [181928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 181928
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
327 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0242 PM WATER SPOUT 1 S BIG PINE KEY 24.67N 81.37W
10/18/2008 GMZ032 FL PUBLIC

A MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT
APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE SOUTH OF BIG PINE KEY. THE
WATERSPOUT WAS INTIALLY OBSERVED AT 242 PM AND REPORTED
AT 247 PM. THE WATERSPOUT WAS DESCRIBED AS VERY NARROW,
NEARLY STATIONARY AND EXTENDED NEARLY ALL THE WAY TO THE
HORIZON.

&&

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181608
SWODY2
SPC AC 181607

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS THE CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
AWAY FROM THE ERN SEABOARD. THE TSTM OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A NO
TSTM FORECAST AS OVERALL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED TO SUPPORT A GREATER THAN 10% PROBABILITY OF TSTMS
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES.

...WRN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 100-200 J/KG/ DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN WI WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTENING REGIME BENEATH MID
LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IN
ADDITION TO THIS REGION...A FEW TSTMS ALSO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
VICINITY OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY LOW /LESS THAN 10%/ ACROSS BOTH REGIONS...AND THUS WILL
NOT INTRODUCE ANY GENERAL TSTM AREAS.

..PETERS.. 10/18/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181558
SWODY1
SPC AC 181555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W...
SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SETTLE INTO WRN MT THROUGH
SWRN ORE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THIS ZONE DOWNSTREAM OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING EWD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED ALONG THIS
AXIS BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...OUTER BANKS OF NC...
MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS PROGRESSES EWD.
THIS SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR CHARGE SEPARATION WITH
PERHAPS A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS. MUCH HIGHER TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL
ZONE OVER THE GULF STREAM.

..GRAMS.. 10/18/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181235
SWODY1
SPC AC 181231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING THE CNTRL APLCNS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE CAROLINA CST 06-12Z WHILE THE WEAKLY PHASED NRN STREAM
SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TO THE W...FLOW REGIME WILL TRANSITION
INTO A LARGELY ZONAL CHARACTER AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ALONG THE
CANADIAN/US ROCKIES BORDER AREA. UPR LOW NOW ARRIVING ACROSS CNTRL
CA WILL DEAMPLIFY...THEN PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM TONIGHT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

IN THE LWR LVLS...PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED OFFSHORE
NC/SC SWWD INTO NRN FL WILL BE REINFORCED BY A FRESH CP AIR MASS
TODAY IN WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. TO THE
W...A COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

...PAC NW INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING SEWD THROUGH MT...NRN ID AND CNTRL
ORE TODAY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC AS THE
WEAK...POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE MINIMAL...SEVERAL HOURS
OF LIFT/ASCENT WILL COOL/MOISTEN THE MID-LVLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR WEAK
INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED
WITHIN SW-NE ORIENTED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM CNTRL ORE NEWD
INTO WRN MT.

...OUTER BANKS OF NC...
HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TODAY
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ORIGINAL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETTLED SEWD INTO
THE REGION LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEST ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE CAROLINAS
BY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ISOLD ELEVATED TSTMS OVER FAR ERN
NC.

..RACY/HURLBUT.. 10/18/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180900
SWOD48
SPC AC 180859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING/CLOSING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON DAY 4/TUESDAY. WHILE
SEVERE TSTMS /ALL HAZARDS WITH RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS/ ARE A
POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/NEB/OK...MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PRECLUDES A 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT SEVERE AREA
AT THIS TIME. WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD CONTINUE THEREAFTER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY STACKED
NATURE OF THE CENTRAL STATES TROUGH/LOW SUGGESTS AN APPRECIABLE
SEVERE RISK IS UNLIKELY AMIDST LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

..GUYER.. 10/18/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180633
SWODY3
SPC AC 180630

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO DAY 3/MONDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WHILE SEVERAL LEADING/LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TRANSITION
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST UPSWING IN TSTM PROBABILITIES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS FOR
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED.

...SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM...
AMIDST A POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME...A FEW STRONGER
TSTMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VEERING WIND PROFILES/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WOULD CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT WELL-ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH A RISK
FOR SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE CONCERNS REGARDING THE
QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING ACROSS
THE PLAINS PRECLUDES SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 10/18/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180515
SWODY1
SPC AC 180511

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE U.S. WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVE-FREE SATURDAY
AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE FORCED WELL OFF THE GULF/ATLANTIC COAST.
EVEN SO...TWO POSSIBLE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE NOTED NEAR
THE OUTER BANKS OF NC AND ACROSS INTERIOR ORE INTO PORTIONS OF ID.
ALTHOUGH SFC COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IT APPEARS WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP
COOLER AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST...BUT PRIMARILY OVER THE WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

MID LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD
ACROSS ORE INTO ID DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY...GIVEN THE LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT...FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE. IN BOTH CASES THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE.

..DARROW/HURLBUT.. 10/18/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180514
SWODY2
SPC AC 180512

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/LARGELY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CONUS ON SUNDAY. TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE SCANT OVER THE CONUS GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE/BUOYANCY...AND SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

A FEW TSTMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN VICINITY OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING
COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND
CAPPING SHOULD BE PREVALENT. A FEW TSTMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. HOWEVER...EACH
SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT 10% TSTM PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..GUYER.. 10/18/2008

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KLOT [180514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 180514
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1214 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 PM HAIL 7 NNW CHICAGO 41.97N 87.68W
10/17/2008 E0.25 INCH COOK IL PUBLIC

HAIL LASTED ABOUT 10 MINUTES.

&&

$$

IZZI

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KLOT [180435]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 180435
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1135 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM HAIL 2 SE EVANSTON 42.03N 87.67W
10/17/2008 M0.25 INCH COOK IL BROADCAST MEDIA

HAIL LAST FOR APPROXIMATELY 3 MINUTES.

&&

$$

IZZI

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