SWODY1
SPC AC 181231
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING THE CNTRL APLCNS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE CAROLINA CST 06-12Z WHILE THE WEAKLY PHASED NRN STREAM
SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TO THE W...FLOW REGIME WILL TRANSITION
INTO A LARGELY ZONAL CHARACTER AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ALONG THE
CANADIAN/US ROCKIES BORDER AREA. UPR LOW NOW ARRIVING ACROSS CNTRL
CA WILL DEAMPLIFY...THEN PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM TONIGHT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
IN THE LWR LVLS...PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED OFFSHORE
NC/SC SWWD INTO NRN FL WILL BE REINFORCED BY A FRESH CP AIR MASS
TODAY IN WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. TO THE
W...A COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
...PAC NW INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING SEWD THROUGH MT...NRN ID AND CNTRL
ORE TODAY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC AS THE
WEAK...POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE MINIMAL...SEVERAL HOURS
OF LIFT/ASCENT WILL COOL/MOISTEN THE MID-LVLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR WEAK
INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED
WITHIN SW-NE ORIENTED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM CNTRL ORE NEWD
INTO WRN MT.
...OUTER BANKS OF NC...
HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TODAY
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ORIGINAL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETTLED SEWD INTO
THE REGION LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEST ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE CAROLINAS
BY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ISOLD ELEVATED TSTMS OVER FAR ERN
NC.
..RACY/HURLBUT.. 10/18/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment