SWOD48
SPC AC 180859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING/CLOSING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON DAY 4/TUESDAY. WHILE
SEVERE TSTMS /ALL HAZARDS WITH RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS/ ARE A
POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/NEB/OK...MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PRECLUDES A 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT SEVERE AREA
AT THIS TIME. WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD CONTINUE THEREAFTER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY STACKED
NATURE OF THE CENTRAL STATES TROUGH/LOW SUGGESTS AN APPRECIABLE
SEVERE RISK IS UNLIKELY AMIDST LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
..GUYER.. 10/18/2008
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