NWUS55 KPUB 160451
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
951 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0909 PM SNOW 13 E WESTCLIFFE 38.13N 105.23W
11/15/2013 M1.5 INCH CUSTER CO BROADCAST MEDIA
ELEVATION 8000 FEET
0854 PM SNOW 1 SSE CRESTONE 37.98N 105.69W
11/15/2013 M1.4 INCH SAGUACHE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
SNOW DEPTH IS 1 INCH. TEMPERATURE 31 DEGREES. MOST OF
THE SNOW FELL BETWEEN 750 AND 820PM. LIGHT SNOW FALLING
AT TIME OF REPORT.
0812 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
11/15/2013 M1.7 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PUB1300047 PUB1300048 PUB1300049
$$
LW
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Friday, November 15, 2013
KPUB [160451]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPUB 160451
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
951 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0909 PM SNOW 13 E WESTCLIFFE 38.13N 105.23W
11/15/2013 M1.5 INCH CUSTER CO BROADCAST MEDIA
ELEVATION 8000 FEET
&&
EVENT NUMBER PUB1300049
$$
LW
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LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
951 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0909 PM SNOW 13 E WESTCLIFFE 38.13N 105.23W
11/15/2013 M1.5 INCH CUSTER CO BROADCAST MEDIA
ELEVATION 8000 FEET
&&
EVENT NUMBER PUB1300049
$$
LW
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KPUB [160430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KPUB 160430
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
928 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0854 PM SNOW 1 SSE CRESTONE 37.98N 105.69W
11/15/2013 M1.4 INCH SAGUACHE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
SNOW DEPTH IS 1 INCH. TEMPERATURE 31 DEGREES. MOST OF
THE SNOW FELL BETWEEN 750 AND 820PM. LIGHT SNOW FALLING
AT TIME OF REPORT.
0812 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
11/15/2013 M1.7 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PUB1300047 PUB1300048
$$
LW
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LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
928 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0854 PM SNOW 1 SSE CRESTONE 37.98N 105.69W
11/15/2013 M1.4 INCH SAGUACHE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
SNOW DEPTH IS 1 INCH. TEMPERATURE 31 DEGREES. MOST OF
THE SNOW FELL BETWEEN 750 AND 820PM. LIGHT SNOW FALLING
AT TIME OF REPORT.
0812 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
11/15/2013 M1.7 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PUB1300047 PUB1300048
$$
LW
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KPUB [160409]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPUB 160409
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
909 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0854 PM SNOW 1 SSE CRESTONE 37.98N 105.69W
11/15/2013 M1.4 INCH SAGUACHE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
SNOW DEPTH IS 1 INCH. TEMPERATURE 31 DEGREES. MOST OF
THE SNOW FELL BETWEEN 750 AND 820PM. LIGHT SNOW FALLING
AT TIME OF REPORT.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PUB1300048
$$
LW
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LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
909 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0854 PM SNOW 1 SSE CRESTONE 37.98N 105.69W
11/15/2013 M1.4 INCH SAGUACHE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
SNOW DEPTH IS 1 INCH. TEMPERATURE 31 DEGREES. MOST OF
THE SNOW FELL BETWEEN 750 AND 820PM. LIGHT SNOW FALLING
AT TIME OF REPORT.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PUB1300048
$$
LW
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KPUB [160315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPUB 160315
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
815 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0812 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
11/15/2013 M1.7 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PUB1300047
$$
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LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
815 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0812 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
11/15/2013 M1.7 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PUB1300047
$$
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KGJT [160238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KGJT 160238
LSRGJT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
738 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM SNOW 1 SE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 40.47N 106.81W
11/15/2013 M2.1 INCH ROUTT CO TRAINED SPOTTER
2.1 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR TODAY. CURRENTLY SNOWING
MODERATELY.
&&
EVENT NUMBER GJT1301844
$$
MALEKSA
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LSRGJT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
738 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM SNOW 1 SE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 40.47N 106.81W
11/15/2013 M2.1 INCH ROUTT CO TRAINED SPOTTER
2.1 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR TODAY. CURRENTLY SNOWING
MODERATELY.
&&
EVENT NUMBER GJT1301844
$$
MALEKSA
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KTFX [152138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KTFX 152138
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
238 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0126 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/15/2013 M59 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
0222 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 21 SE CASCADE 47.06N 111.39W
11/15/2013 M69 MPH CASCADE MT MESONET
69 MPH WIND GUST NEAR MILLEGAN.
0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
11/15/2013 M52 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET
52 MPH WIND GUST AT THE HEART BUTTE RAWS LOCATION. TIME
OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
0432 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 24 WSW CHOTEAU 47.68N 112.66W
11/15/2013 M61 MPH TETON MT MESONET
0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/15/2013 M80 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
80 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION. TIME
OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
0627 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/15/2013 M54 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
54 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.
0848 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/15/2013 M65 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
65 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
238 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0126 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/15/2013 M59 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
0222 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 21 SE CASCADE 47.06N 111.39W
11/15/2013 M69 MPH CASCADE MT MESONET
69 MPH WIND GUST NEAR MILLEGAN.
0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
11/15/2013 M52 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET
52 MPH WIND GUST AT THE HEART BUTTE RAWS LOCATION. TIME
OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
0432 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 24 WSW CHOTEAU 47.68N 112.66W
11/15/2013 M61 MPH TETON MT MESONET
0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/15/2013 M80 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
80 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION. TIME
OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
0627 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/15/2013 M54 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
54 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.
0848 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/15/2013 M65 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
65 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 152000
SWODY1
SPC AC 151957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...20Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO EXISTING TSTM OUTLOOK AREAS. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT /MAINLY 09Z-12Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...BUT THE OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN CAPPING/INITIALLY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN.
..GUYER.. 11/15/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED AS
BROADLY CYCLONIC AND MULTI STREAM WITH A NUMBER OF TRANSITORY
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME. ONE IMPULSE OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN
ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS ADVANCING EQUATORWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NW AND NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE PRESENT E OF THE MS VALLEY
WILL DEVELOP EWD WHILE A LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS.
...FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...COOLING MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOW-LEVEL
UPLIFT ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN COUPLED WITH DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL FOSTER
ISOLATED TSTMS LATER TODAY. A STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.
...NC OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY DCVA ATTENDANT TO A SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
--CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY-- TO PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 151957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...20Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO EXISTING TSTM OUTLOOK AREAS. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT /MAINLY 09Z-12Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...BUT THE OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN CAPPING/INITIALLY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN.
..GUYER.. 11/15/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED AS
BROADLY CYCLONIC AND MULTI STREAM WITH A NUMBER OF TRANSITORY
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME. ONE IMPULSE OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN
ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS ADVANCING EQUATORWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NW AND NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE PRESENT E OF THE MS VALLEY
WILL DEVELOP EWD WHILE A LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS.
...FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...COOLING MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOW-LEVEL
UPLIFT ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN COUPLED WITH DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL FOSTER
ISOLATED TSTMS LATER TODAY. A STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.
...NC OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY DCVA ATTENDANT TO A SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
--CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY-- TO PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS.
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KPSR [151836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPSR 151836
LSRPSR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1136 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1112 AM DUST STORM 3 E STANFIELD 32.88N 111.91W
11/15/2013 PINAL AZ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
DPS OFFICER REPORTED LESS THAN HALF MILE VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING DUST. SR 84 MM 169
&&
EVENT NUMBER PSR1300230
$$
DEWEY
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LSRPSR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1136 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1112 AM DUST STORM 3 E STANFIELD 32.88N 111.91W
11/15/2013 PINAL AZ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
DPS OFFICER REPORTED LESS THAN HALF MILE VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING DUST. SR 84 MM 169
&&
EVENT NUMBER PSR1300230
$$
DEWEY
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 151732
SWODY2
SPC AC 151730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO
VALLEY AND MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
AN AMPLIFYING/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING POLAR JET
WILL GENERALLY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND/OR
LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASINGLY PREVALENT
CORRIDOR OF UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SATURDAY NIGHT
TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT.
INITIALLY...ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...THE RELATIVELY MORE PROBABLE SEVERE
RISK SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. REGARDING SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE EXACT TIMING/QUALITY OF THE NORTHWARD FLUX OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS A KEY QUESTION...BUT AT LEAST SOME EVENING/OVERNIGHT
SEVERE RISK SHOULD EXIST GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE ARRIVAL
OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ELEVATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST PROBABLE CONCERN
SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE SLIGHT RISK. THAT
SAID...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLACE BY THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME NEAR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/MO. SHOULD THIS BE THE
CASE...DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
...OZARKS VICINITY...
FARTHER SOUTH...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
APPEARS EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR AND THE ADJACENT MS RIVER VALLEY VICINITY. STEADILY
INCREASINGLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
GIVEN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSELY
REEVALUATED FOR DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL AND A
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.
..GUYER.. 11/15/2013
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SWODY2
SPC AC 151730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO
VALLEY AND MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
AN AMPLIFYING/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING POLAR JET
WILL GENERALLY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND/OR
LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASINGLY PREVALENT
CORRIDOR OF UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SATURDAY NIGHT
TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT.
INITIALLY...ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...THE RELATIVELY MORE PROBABLE SEVERE
RISK SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. REGARDING SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE EXACT TIMING/QUALITY OF THE NORTHWARD FLUX OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS A KEY QUESTION...BUT AT LEAST SOME EVENING/OVERNIGHT
SEVERE RISK SHOULD EXIST GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE ARRIVAL
OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ELEVATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST PROBABLE CONCERN
SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE SLIGHT RISK. THAT
SAID...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLACE BY THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME NEAR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/MO. SHOULD THIS BE THE
CASE...DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
...OZARKS VICINITY...
FARTHER SOUTH...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
APPEARS EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR AND THE ADJACENT MS RIVER VALLEY VICINITY. STEADILY
INCREASINGLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
GIVEN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSELY
REEVALUATED FOR DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL AND A
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.
..GUYER.. 11/15/2013
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KTFX [151625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 151625
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0848 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/15/2013 M65 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
65 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0848 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/15/2013 M65 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
65 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 151616
SWODY1
SPC AC 151614
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED AS
BROADLY CYCLONIC AND MULTI STREAM WITH A NUMBER OF TRANSITORY
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME. ONE IMPULSE OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN
ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS ADVANCING EQUATORWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NW AND NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE PRESENT E OF THE MS VALLEY
WILL DEVELOP EWD WHILE A LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS.
...FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...COOLING MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOW-LEVEL
UPLIFT ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN COUPLED WITH DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL FOSTER
ISOLATED TSTMS LATER TODAY. A STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.
...NC OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY DCVA ATTENDANT TO A SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
--CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY-- TO PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS.
..MEAD/GOSS.. 11/15/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 151614
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED AS
BROADLY CYCLONIC AND MULTI STREAM WITH A NUMBER OF TRANSITORY
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME. ONE IMPULSE OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN
ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS ADVANCING EQUATORWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NW AND NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE PRESENT E OF THE MS VALLEY
WILL DEVELOP EWD WHILE A LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS.
...FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...COOLING MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOW-LEVEL
UPLIFT ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN COUPLED WITH DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL FOSTER
ISOLATED TSTMS LATER TODAY. A STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.
...NC OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY DCVA ATTENDANT TO A SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
--CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY-- TO PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS.
..MEAD/GOSS.. 11/15/2013
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KTFX [151515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 151515
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
815 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0222 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 21 SE CASCADE 47.06N 111.39W
11/15/2013 M69 MPH CASCADE MT MESONET
69 MPH WIND GUST NEAR MILLEGAN.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
815 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0222 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 21 SE CASCADE 47.06N 111.39W
11/15/2013 M69 MPH CASCADE MT MESONET
69 MPH WIND GUST NEAR MILLEGAN.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [151500]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 151500
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
800 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0627 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/15/2013 M54 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
54 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
800 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0627 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/15/2013 M54 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
54 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [151457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 151457
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
757 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
11/15/2013 M52 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET
52 MPH WIND GUST AT THE HEART BUTTE RAWS LOCATION. TIME
OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
757 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
11/15/2013 M52 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET
52 MPH WIND GUST AT THE HEART BUTTE RAWS LOCATION. TIME
OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [151454]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 151454
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
754 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/15/2013 M80 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
80 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION. TIME
OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
754 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/15/2013 M80 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
80 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION. TIME
OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [151327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 151327
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
626 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0521 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.36N 113.11W
11/15/2013 M80 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
MESONET STATION DEEP CREEK RAWS ( 8 SE EAST
GLACIER PARK) /DCRM8/
&&
$$
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
626 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0521 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.36N 113.11W
11/15/2013 M80 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
MESONET STATION DEEP CREEK RAWS ( 8 SE EAST
GLACIER PARK) /DCRM8/
&&
$$
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
IRIS SYSTEM
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 151258
SWODY1
SPC AC 151255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE E CNTRL
PACIFIC. LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS PATTERN...NOW OVER THE
ARKLATEX...SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS THE TN VLY LATER
TODAY/TNGT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST EARLY SAT.
FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE GRT BASIN SHOULD TURN
E/NE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS TNGT/EARLY SAT AS STRONGER UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER CSTL BC AMPLIFIES SE INTO WA/ORE.
RESIDUAL...SHALLOW LAYER OF CP AIR WILL PERSIST AT LWR LVLS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S....LIMITING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODEST SFC-BASED
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...AND A CHANCE FOR WDLY SCTD TSTMS...WILL
ACCOMPANY SYSTEM CROSSING THE GRT BASIN/SW U.S. TODAY. IN
ADDITION...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE TNGT AND EARLY
SAT OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS AS SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT SPORADIC
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
...PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY...
SFC HEATING AND INCREASING ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NV/CA SHOULD FOSTER ISOLD TO PERHAPS WDLY
SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS AFTN. STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW AND STEEP
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. SPARSE
MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE AND SUSTENANCE.
...PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS TNGT/EARLY SAT...
STRENGTHENING WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM GRT BASIN
TROUGH...AND TIME OF DAY...SHOULD RESULT IN AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE
IN SWLY LLJ OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EARLY SAT...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS. WHILE TRAJECTORIES DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE...MOISTURE INFLOW AND ASSOCIATED
WAA ATOP SHALLOW COOL DOME MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR PATCHES OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION/WDLY SCTD TSTMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
...CSTL CAROLINAS EARLY SAT...
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPLIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE
CAROLINA CSTL WATERS TOWARD 12Z SAT AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SRN PART
OF UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED LAYER OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL ONLY BARELY APPROACH THE -20C
LVL...WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 1.25 IN AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT
PRESENT IN THE FORM OF CSTL/GULF STREAM BOUNDARIES...SETUP MAY YIELD
A FEW LATE PERIOD LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY JUST OFFSHORE.
..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 11/15/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 151255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE E CNTRL
PACIFIC. LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS PATTERN...NOW OVER THE
ARKLATEX...SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS THE TN VLY LATER
TODAY/TNGT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST EARLY SAT.
FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE GRT BASIN SHOULD TURN
E/NE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS TNGT/EARLY SAT AS STRONGER UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER CSTL BC AMPLIFIES SE INTO WA/ORE.
RESIDUAL...SHALLOW LAYER OF CP AIR WILL PERSIST AT LWR LVLS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S....LIMITING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODEST SFC-BASED
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...AND A CHANCE FOR WDLY SCTD TSTMS...WILL
ACCOMPANY SYSTEM CROSSING THE GRT BASIN/SW U.S. TODAY. IN
ADDITION...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE TNGT AND EARLY
SAT OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS AS SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT SPORADIC
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
...PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY...
SFC HEATING AND INCREASING ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NV/CA SHOULD FOSTER ISOLD TO PERHAPS WDLY
SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS AFTN. STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW AND STEEP
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. SPARSE
MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE AND SUSTENANCE.
...PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS TNGT/EARLY SAT...
STRENGTHENING WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM GRT BASIN
TROUGH...AND TIME OF DAY...SHOULD RESULT IN AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE
IN SWLY LLJ OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EARLY SAT...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS. WHILE TRAJECTORIES DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE...MOISTURE INFLOW AND ASSOCIATED
WAA ATOP SHALLOW COOL DOME MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR PATCHES OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION/WDLY SCTD TSTMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
...CSTL CAROLINAS EARLY SAT...
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPLIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE
CAROLINA CSTL WATERS TOWARD 12Z SAT AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SRN PART
OF UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED LAYER OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL ONLY BARELY APPROACH THE -20C
LVL...WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 1.25 IN AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT
PRESENT IN THE FORM OF CSTL/GULF STREAM BOUNDARIES...SETUP MAY YIELD
A FEW LATE PERIOD LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY JUST OFFSHORE.
..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 11/15/2013
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KTFX [151252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 151252
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
552 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0432 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 24 WSW CHOTEAU 47.68N 112.66W
11/15/2013 M61 MPH TETON MT MESONET
&&
$$
MLV
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
552 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0432 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 24 WSW CHOTEAU 47.68N 112.66W
11/15/2013 M61 MPH TETON MT MESONET
&&
$$
MLV
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KTFX [151000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 151000
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0126 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/15/2013 M59 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
&&
$$
CZ
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0126 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/15/2013 M59 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
&&
$$
CZ
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 150953
SWOD48
SPC AC 150952
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO SERN CANADA...ATTENDANT
DEEP SFC LOW WILL OCCLUDE ACROSS WRN ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD
FRONT ADVANCES EWD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SWRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY MEAGER IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NERN STATES. NEVERTHELESS...A STRONGLY
FORCED BAND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING
SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70 KT SLY LLJ...SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND MAY STILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY FROM COASTAL VA INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT IS NOT
SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE A CATEGORICAL AREA FOR MONDAY
(DAY 4).
DAYS 5-8...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. A LARGE AREA
OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE ERN HALF THE U.S. DAY
5-6 WITH A SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT POSSIBLE DAYS 7-8...MAINTAINING
OFFSHORE FLOW AND STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.
..DIAL.. 11/15/2013
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SWOD48
SPC AC 150952
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO SERN CANADA...ATTENDANT
DEEP SFC LOW WILL OCCLUDE ACROSS WRN ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD
FRONT ADVANCES EWD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SWRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY MEAGER IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NERN STATES. NEVERTHELESS...A STRONGLY
FORCED BAND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING
SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70 KT SLY LLJ...SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND MAY STILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY FROM COASTAL VA INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT IS NOT
SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE A CATEGORICAL AREA FOR MONDAY
(DAY 4).
DAYS 5-8...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. A LARGE AREA
OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE ERN HALF THE U.S. DAY
5-6 WITH A SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT POSSIBLE DAYS 7-8...MAINTAINING
OFFSHORE FLOW AND STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.
..DIAL.. 11/15/2013
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 150832
SWODY3
SPC AC 150830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT STRONG UPPER JET EMBEDDED WITHIN
BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL EJECT NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE
MID MS AND OH VALLEYS SUNDAY...REACHING A PORTION OF THE NERN U.S.
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SFC CYCLONE
THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NEWD
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MID MS...OH AND
TN VALLEYS...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES.
...OH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...
A STRONG 50+ KT SWLY LLJ WILL ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH MID 60S LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AREA. THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS THAT WILL LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN
MUCH OF PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. MOREOVER...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING OVER A PORTION OF THE OH
VALLEY WARM SECTOR. THUS THE PRIMARY DESTABILIZATION MECHANISM WILL
PROBABLY BE MOISTURE ADVECTION...BUT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/...ESPECIALLY
WITH NWD AND EWD EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
NEVERTHELESS...THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. STORMS MAY INCREASE DURING THE DAY ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER JET EXIT
REGION. OTHER STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR PRE-FRONTAL STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES GIVEN STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS
ALONG LLJ...BUT EXTENT OF ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE
OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO LINES ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN
VALLEY REGIONS.
...NY AND PA...
STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY OUTPACE THE MOIST AXIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ENCOUNTER MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY AS THEY APPROACH THE NERN STATES.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WITH
REMAINING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS
PERIOD.
..DIAL.. 11/15/2013
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SWODY3
SPC AC 150830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT STRONG UPPER JET EMBEDDED WITHIN
BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL EJECT NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE
MID MS AND OH VALLEYS SUNDAY...REACHING A PORTION OF THE NERN U.S.
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SFC CYCLONE
THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NEWD
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MID MS...OH AND
TN VALLEYS...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES.
...OH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...
A STRONG 50+ KT SWLY LLJ WILL ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH MID 60S LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AREA. THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS THAT WILL LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN
MUCH OF PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. MOREOVER...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING OVER A PORTION OF THE OH
VALLEY WARM SECTOR. THUS THE PRIMARY DESTABILIZATION MECHANISM WILL
PROBABLY BE MOISTURE ADVECTION...BUT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/...ESPECIALLY
WITH NWD AND EWD EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
NEVERTHELESS...THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. STORMS MAY INCREASE DURING THE DAY ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER JET EXIT
REGION. OTHER STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR PRE-FRONTAL STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES GIVEN STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS
ALONG LLJ...BUT EXTENT OF ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE
OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO LINES ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN
VALLEY REGIONS.
...NY AND PA...
STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY OUTPACE THE MOIST AXIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ENCOUNTER MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY AS THEY APPROACH THE NERN STATES.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WITH
REMAINING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS
PERIOD.
..DIAL.. 11/15/2013
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 150702
SWODY2
SPC AC 150700
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER JET DEVELOPS SWD ALONG THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE PACIFIC NW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
PRECEDE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE AND WILL EJECT THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.
AT THE SFC A PACIFIC FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL
STRETCH FROM A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SWWD THROUGH NM
INTO SRN AZ SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE
LOW THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION AND LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY.
THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE. AS
THIS OCCURS THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD AHEAD OF
A STRONGER POLAR FRONT DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS.
...MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
THE RIDGE OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SLY
NEAR SFC WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION
WHERE PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD. BY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID MS
VALLEY WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE WRN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP EWD ABOVE RETURNING MOIST AXIS
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LLJ STRENGTHENS...BUT WHEN THE NEAR SFC LAYER
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STABLE. NEVERTHELESS...MUCAPE FROM 500-1000
J/KG MAY DEVELOP. A FEW SUB-SEVERE EARLY ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION
STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION EARLY SATURDAY
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD IMPULSE. IN WAKE OF
EARLY STORMS ...MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SFC HEATING
BENEATH AN EWD ADVECTING BUT MODEST EML...SO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED TO SFC BASED STORMS DURING THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WITHIN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THESE STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...BUT WILL EXIST WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40+ KT WILL
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION. PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL
MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR NOW...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY SHOULD IT
BEGIN TO BECOME EVIDENT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN WARM
SECTOR.
..DIAL.. 11/15/2013
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SWODY2
SPC AC 150700
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER JET DEVELOPS SWD ALONG THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE PACIFIC NW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
PRECEDE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE AND WILL EJECT THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.
AT THE SFC A PACIFIC FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL
STRETCH FROM A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SWWD THROUGH NM
INTO SRN AZ SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE
LOW THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION AND LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY.
THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE. AS
THIS OCCURS THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD AHEAD OF
A STRONGER POLAR FRONT DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS.
...MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
THE RIDGE OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SLY
NEAR SFC WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION
WHERE PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD. BY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID MS
VALLEY WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE WRN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP EWD ABOVE RETURNING MOIST AXIS
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LLJ STRENGTHENS...BUT WHEN THE NEAR SFC LAYER
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STABLE. NEVERTHELESS...MUCAPE FROM 500-1000
J/KG MAY DEVELOP. A FEW SUB-SEVERE EARLY ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION
STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION EARLY SATURDAY
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD IMPULSE. IN WAKE OF
EARLY STORMS ...MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SFC HEATING
BENEATH AN EWD ADVECTING BUT MODEST EML...SO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED TO SFC BASED STORMS DURING THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WITHIN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THESE STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...BUT WILL EXIST WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40+ KT WILL
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION. PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL
MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR NOW...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY SHOULD IT
BEGIN TO BECOME EVIDENT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN WARM
SECTOR.
..DIAL.. 11/15/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 150550
SWODY1
SPC AC 150548
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD AND EVENTUALLY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...WITHIN A BROADER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BIFURCATE LATE FRI
INTO EARLY SAT...WITH PRIMARY VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS...WHILE SRN EXTENSION PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...A MORE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW. A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL
LLJ INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT MODEST
NWD RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY.
...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
DCVA...ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXITING THE GREAT BASIN...AMIDST COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
STRENGTHENING LOW-/MIDLEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ONLY YIELD AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AT BEST...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT.
...PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...
NOCTURNAL LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY /E.G 50-60 KT/
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
LOW-/MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
MODEST...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NARROW SLIVER OF
BUOYANCY PRIMARILY ABOVE 700 MB WILL BE PRESENT. ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE MAY HINDERED
BY MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK CINH.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MINOR OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. RICHER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
ADVECT INLAND ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL REGION OF THE
CAROLINAS...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY EARLY
SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM /-10 TO -15 C/...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.
..ROGERS/DARROW.. 11/15/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 150548
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD AND EVENTUALLY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...WITHIN A BROADER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BIFURCATE LATE FRI
INTO EARLY SAT...WITH PRIMARY VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS...WHILE SRN EXTENSION PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...A MORE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW. A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL
LLJ INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT MODEST
NWD RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY.
...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
DCVA...ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXITING THE GREAT BASIN...AMIDST COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
STRENGTHENING LOW-/MIDLEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ONLY YIELD AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AT BEST...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT.
...PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...
NOCTURNAL LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY /E.G 50-60 KT/
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
LOW-/MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
MODEST...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NARROW SLIVER OF
BUOYANCY PRIMARILY ABOVE 700 MB WILL BE PRESENT. ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE MAY HINDERED
BY MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK CINH.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MINOR OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. RICHER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
ADVECT INLAND ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL REGION OF THE
CAROLINAS...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY EARLY
SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM /-10 TO -15 C/...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.
..ROGERS/DARROW.. 11/15/2013
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