DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151258
SWODY1
SPC AC 151255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE E CNTRL
PACIFIC. LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS PATTERN...NOW OVER THE
ARKLATEX...SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS THE TN VLY LATER
TODAY/TNGT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST EARLY SAT.
FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE GRT BASIN SHOULD TURN
E/NE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS TNGT/EARLY SAT AS STRONGER UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER CSTL BC AMPLIFIES SE INTO WA/ORE.

RESIDUAL...SHALLOW LAYER OF CP AIR WILL PERSIST AT LWR LVLS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S....LIMITING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODEST SFC-BASED
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...AND A CHANCE FOR WDLY SCTD TSTMS...WILL
ACCOMPANY SYSTEM CROSSING THE GRT BASIN/SW U.S. TODAY. IN
ADDITION...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE TNGT AND EARLY
SAT OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS AS SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT SPORADIC
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z.

...PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY...
SFC HEATING AND INCREASING ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NV/CA SHOULD FOSTER ISOLD TO PERHAPS WDLY
SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS AFTN. STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW AND STEEP
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. SPARSE
MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE AND SUSTENANCE.

...PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS TNGT/EARLY SAT...
STRENGTHENING WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM GRT BASIN
TROUGH...AND TIME OF DAY...SHOULD RESULT IN AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE
IN SWLY LLJ OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EARLY SAT...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS. WHILE TRAJECTORIES DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE...MOISTURE INFLOW AND ASSOCIATED
WAA ATOP SHALLOW COOL DOME MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR PATCHES OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION/WDLY SCTD TSTMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...CSTL CAROLINAS EARLY SAT...
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPLIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE
CAROLINA CSTL WATERS TOWARD 12Z SAT AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SRN PART
OF UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED LAYER OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL ONLY BARELY APPROACH THE -20C
LVL...WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 1.25 IN AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT
PRESENT IN THE FORM OF CSTL/GULF STREAM BOUNDARIES...SETUP MAY YIELD
A FEW LATE PERIOD LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY JUST OFFSHORE.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 11/15/2013

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