KBUF [160232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 160232
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1031 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BARKER 43.33N 78.55W
10/15/2011 NIAGARA NY 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN IN BARKER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1100269

$$

THOMAS

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KAPX [160154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 160154
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
954 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0436 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW SAULT STE. MARIE 46.50N 84.37W
10/15/2011 M62.00 MPH CHIPPEWA MI C-MAN STATION

SOUTHWEST PIER AT THE W END OF THE SOO LOCKS

0551 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE THOMPSONS HARBOR 45.36N 83.50W
10/15/2011 M62.00 MPH LHZ347 MI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT PRESQUE ISLE LIGHTHOUSE

&&

$$

HALBLAUB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160057
SWODY1
SPC AC 160056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
ONLY A VERY LIMITED TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST CONUS-WIDE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS A COOL/STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH
FL/KEYS VICINITY AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ANY TSTMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND AND/OR WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS ORE SHOULD
BE VERY SPARSE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SUCH THAT 10 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES NO LONGER APPEAR WARRANTED IN EITHER CASE.

..GUYER.. 10/16/2011

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KMKX [160019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 160019
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
719 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E SHEBOYGAN 43.75N 87.70W
10/15/2011 M43.00 MPH LMZ643 WI C-MAN STATION

37 KNOT GUST AT SHEBOYGAN MARINE STATION /SGNW3/.

&&

$$

MBK

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KBOX [152339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 152339
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
738 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MASHPEE 41.65N 70.48W
10/15/2011 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON MASSASOIT AVENUE

0255 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LUNENBURG 42.59N 71.73W
10/15/2011 WORCESTER MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON WIRES. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGE

0346 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG COLRAIN 42.67N 72.68W
10/15/2011 FRANKLIN MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON ROUTE 112

&&

$$

KJC

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KMQT [152324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 152324
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
724 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NEWBERRY 46.35N 85.51W
10/15/2011 LUCE MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS LUCE COUNTY RESULTING IN
SEVERAL POWER OUTAGES. THIS HAS BEEN ONGOING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

$$

JMWIX

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KGRR [152226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGRR 152226
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
626 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S HOLLAND 42.75N 86.11W
10/15/2011 M45.00 MPH ALLEGAN MI ASOS

0538 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SSE MUSKEGON 43.16N 86.23W
10/15/2011 M47.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS

0849 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE KALAMAZOO 42.23N 85.56W
10/15/2011 M43.00 MPH KALAMAZOO MI ASOS

0934 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE SOUTH HAVEN 42.35N 86.25W
10/15/2011 M40.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1019 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND RAPIDS 42.96N 85.67W
10/15/2011 M45.00 MPH KENT MI MESONET

DOWNTOWN AT GVSU.

1030 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW CASCADE 42.88N 85.52W
10/15/2011 M41.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS

1035 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNW LANSING 42.80N 84.58W
10/15/2011 M41.00 MPH CLINTON MI ASOS

1132 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSW ALMA 43.32N 84.69W
10/15/2011 M44.00 MPH GRATIOT MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1149 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE MASON 42.56N 84.42W
10/15/2011 M44.00 MPH INGHAM MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE CHARLOTTE 42.57N 84.82W
10/15/2011 M44.00 MPH EATON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0112 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW BATTLE CREEK 42.33N 85.21W
10/15/2011 M43.00 MPH CALHOUN MI ASOS

0154 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW CASCADE 42.88N 85.52W
10/15/2011 M47.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS

0209 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNW LANSING 42.80N 84.58W
10/15/2011 M45.00 MPH CLINTON MI ASOS

0213 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE MARSHALL 42.26N 84.96W
10/15/2011 M40.00 MPH CALHOUN MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0220 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SHELBYVILLE 42.59N 85.64W
10/15/2011 ALLEGAN MI NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE ROAD SIGN BLOWN DOWN AND SOME ROOFING MATERIAL OFF
A BUILDING.

0229 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW JACKSON 42.26N 84.46W
10/15/2011 M41.00 MPH JACKSON MI ASOS

0412 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S IONIA 42.94N 85.06W
10/15/2011 M44.00 MPH IONIA MI AWOS

&&

$$

WH

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KGRR [152225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 152225
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
625 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S HOLLAND 42.75N 86.11W
10/15/2011 M45.00 MPH ALLEGAN MI ASOS

0849 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE KALAMAZOO 42.23N 85.56W
10/15/2011 M43.00 MPH KALAMAZOO MI ASOS

0934 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE SOUTH HAVEN 42.35N 86.25W
10/15/2011 M40.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1132 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSW ALMA 43.32N 84.69W
10/15/2011 M44.00 MPH GRATIOT MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1149 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE MASON 42.56N 84.42W
10/15/2011 M44.00 MPH INGHAM MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE CHARLOTTE 42.57N 84.82W
10/15/2011 M44.00 MPH EATON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0112 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW BATTLE CREEK 42.33N 85.21W
10/15/2011 M43.00 MPH CALHOUN MI ASOS

0209 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNW LANSING 42.80N 84.58W
10/15/2011 M45.00 MPH CLINTON MI ASOS

0213 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE MARSHALL 42.26N 84.96W
10/15/2011 M40.00 MPH CALHOUN MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0229 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW JACKSON 42.26N 84.46W
10/15/2011 M41.00 MPH JACKSON MI ASOS

0412 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S IONIA 42.94N 85.06W
10/15/2011 M44.00 MPH IONIA MI AWOS

&&

$$

WH

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KMQT [152213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 152213
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
613 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE GRAND MARAIS 46.68N 85.97W
10/15/2011 M64 MPH ALGER MI C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

JMWIX

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KGRR [152211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGRR 152211
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
611 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/15/2011 M56.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

WH

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KGRR [152210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGRR 152210
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
610 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNW LANSING 42.80N 84.58W
10/15/2011 M41.00 MPH CLINTON MI ASOS

&&

$$

WH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 152054
SWODY1
SPC AC 152053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..SPC.. 10/15/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT NEWD. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER WEST...ZONAL FLOW
AND SUBTLE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO THE S GLANCE PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

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KMQT [151933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 151933
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
332 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FREDA 47.13N 88.82W
10/14/2011 M47.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0815 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW MERRIWEATHER 46.56N 89.67W
10/14/2011 ONTONAGON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL HEALTHY PINE TREES DOWN ALONG M28. EXACT SIZE

UNKNOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY HIGHEST WIND GUST AT IRONWOOD.

0900 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LAC LA BELLE 47.38N 88.02W
10/14/2011 KEWEENAW MI FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

18-INCH TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD AT FIRE STATION. ALSO
REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES NEAR EAGLE
HARBOR.

1200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 41 N COPPER HARBOR 48.06N 87.89W
10/15/2011 M53.00 MPH LSZ264 MI BUOY

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND MARAIS 46.67N 85.98W
10/15/2011 M62.00 MPH ALGER MI OTHER FEDERAL

MEASURED ON NWS GLOS MARINE STATION ON BREAKWATER AT
GRAND MARAIS.

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MUNISING 46.42N 86.64W
10/15/2011 M51.00 MPH ALGER MI ASOS

0450 AM TSTM WND GST COPPER HARBOR 47.47N 87.89W
10/15/2011 M52.00 MPH KEWEENAW MI ASOS

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 28 ESE KEWEENAW POINT 47.18N 87.22W
10/15/2011 M59.00 MPH LSZ266 MI C-MAN STATION

0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 55 ENE KEWEENAW POINT 47.56N 86.55W
10/15/2011 M51.00 MPH LSZ266 XX BUOY

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW CALUMET 47.28N 88.53W
10/15/2011 M51.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

MBABICH

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KMQT [151932]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151932
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 41 N COPPER HARBOR 48.06N 87.89W
10/15/2011 M53.00 MPH LSZ264 MI BUOY

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MUNISING 46.42N 86.64W
10/15/2011 M51.00 MPH ALGER MI ASOS

0450 AM TSTM WND GST COPPER HARBOR 47.47N 87.89W
10/15/2011 M52.00 MPH KEWEENAW MI ASOS

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 28 ESE KEWEENAW POINT 47.18N 87.22W
10/15/2011 M59.00 MPH LSZ266 MI C-MAN STATION

0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 55 ENE KEWEENAW POINT 47.56N 86.55W
10/15/2011 M51.00 MPH LSZ266 XX BUOY

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW CALUMET 47.28N 88.53W
10/15/2011 M51.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

MBABICH

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KBOX [151914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBOX 151914
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
314 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MASHPEE 41.65N 70.48W
10/15/2011 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON MASSASOIT AVENUE

&&

$$

KAB

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KDTX [151904]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 151904
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
304 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PONTIAC 42.65N 83.29W
10/15/2011 M46.00 MPH OAKLAND MI ASOS

KPTK ASOS

0201 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE ROMULUS 42.21N 83.35W
10/15/2011 M45.00 MPH WAYNE MI ASOS

KDTW ASOS

&&

$$

RKULIK

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KMQT [151859]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151859
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
258 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW MERRIWEATHER 46.56N 89.67W
10/14/2011 ONTONAGON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL HEALTHY PINE TREES DOWN ALONG M28. EXACT SIZE

UNKNOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY HIGHEST WIND GUST AT IRONWOOD.

&&

$$

MBABICH

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KAPX [151859]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KAPX 151859
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
259 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0711 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CHARLEVOIX 45.32N 85.26W
10/15/2011 M56.00 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

&&

$$

HALBLAUB

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KAPX [151857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KAPX 151857
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
256 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW MANISTEE 44.25N 86.35W
10/15/2011 M48.00 MPH MANISTEE MI C-MAN STATION

MANISTEE HARBOR

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE LEELANAU STATE PA 45.21N 85.55W
10/15/2011 M54.00 MPH LEELANAU MI C-MAN STATION

GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT

0608 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE EMPIRE 44.80N 86.05W
10/15/2011 M46.00 MPH LEELANAU MI PARK/FOREST SRVC

0711 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CHARLEVOIX 45.32N 85.26W
10/15/2011 E56.00 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

0719 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W IRONTON 45.26N 85.24W
10/15/2011 M51.00 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0854 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E SAULT STE. MARIE 46.49N 84.30W
10/15/2011 M46.00 MPH CHIPPEWA MI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT LITTLE RAPIDS ON ST. MARYS RIVER

0906 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW SAULT STE. MARIE 46.50N 84.37W
10/15/2011 M53.00 MPH CHIPPEWA MI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT SOUTHWEST PIER. MULTIPLE GUSTS OF EQUAL
MAGNITUDE OCCURRED SEVERAL OTHER TIMES.

0906 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E MACKINAW CITY 45.78N 84.72W
10/15/2011 M51.00 MPH EMMET MI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT STATE MARINA

0944 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DRUMMOND ISLAND 46.01N 83.70W
10/15/2011 M53.00 MPH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

1001 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 31 E PRESQUE ISLE 45.35N 82.84W
10/15/2011 M49.00 MPH LHZ362 MI BUOY

SEAS MEASURED AT 14 FEET BEGINNING AT 1250 PM

1020 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E CROSS VILLAGE 45.64N 84.91W
10/15/2011 M49.00 MPH EMMET MI MESONET

1151 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE THOMPSONS HARBOR 45.36N 83.50W
10/15/2011 M59.00 MPH LHZ347 MI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT

1212 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNW BAY MILLS 46.49N 84.63W
10/15/2011 M54.00 MPH CHIPPEWA MI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT POINT IROQUOIS. GUST OF EQUAL MAGNITUDE ALSO
OCCURRED AT 1236 PM.

0147 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E HURON BEACH 45.49N 84.05W
10/15/2011 M47.00 MPH PRESQUE ISLE MI MESONET

MEASURED AT HAMMOND BAY

0150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 E AU GRES 44.04N 83.53W
10/15/2011 M56.00 MPH LHZ421 MI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT GRAVELLEY SHOALS LIGHT

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW ALPENA 45.05N 83.45W
10/15/2011 M46.00 MPH ALPENA MI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT ALPENA HARBOR LIGHT

0225 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W OSSINEKE 44.91N 83.45W
10/15/2011 M56.00 MPH ALPENA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

HALBLAUB

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KGRB [151845]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 151845
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
145 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0713 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SHERWOOD 44.17N 88.27W
10/15/2011 M60 MPH CALUMET WI TRAINED SPOTTER

OBSERVATION TAKEN AT 40 FT ELEVATION.

&&

$$

SAC

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KGRR [151827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGRR 151827
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
226 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SSE MUSKEGON 43.16N 86.23W
10/15/2011 M47.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS

0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/15/2011 M56.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

BETWEEN 7 AM AND 8 AM.

1019 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND RAPIDS 42.96N 85.67W
10/15/2011 M45.00 MPH KENT MI MESONET

DOWNTOWN AT GVSU.

1030 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW CASCADE 42.88N 85.52W
10/15/2011 M41.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS

1035 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW LANSING 42.77N 84.58W
10/15/2011 M41.00 MPH CLINTON MI ASOS

0154 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW CASCADE 42.88N 85.52W
10/15/2011 M47.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS

0220 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SHELBYVILLE 42.59N 85.64W
10/15/2011 ALLEGAN MI NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE ROAD SIGN BLOWN DOWN AND SOME ROOFING MATERIAL OFF
A BUILDING.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [151824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 151824
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
224 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0154 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW CASCADE 42.88N 85.52W
10/15/2011 M47 MPH KENT MI ASOS

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [151822]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 151822
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
222 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SHELBYVILLE 42.59N 85.64W
10/15/2011 ALLEGAN MI NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE ROAD SIGN BLOWN DOWN AND SOME ROOFING MATERIAL OFF
A BUILDING.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KBTV [151812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBTV 151812
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
212 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM HAIL 1 ESE NASHVILLE 44.45N 72.93W
10/15/2011 E0.25 INCH CHITTENDEN VT NWS EMPLOYEE

PEA-SIZED HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100587

$$

MUCCILLI

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KDTX [151804]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDTX 151804
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
204 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FLINT 43.02N 83.69W
10/15/2011 M46.00 MPH GENESEE MI ASOS

KFNT ASOS

1221 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PONTIAC 42.65N 83.29W
10/15/2011 M45.00 MPH OAKLAND MI ASOS

KPTK ASOS

1241 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ADRIAN 41.90N 84.04W
10/15/2011 M48.00 MPH LENAWEE MI ASOS

KADG METAR

0115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ENE SAGINAW 43.43N 83.86W
10/15/2011 M46.00 MPH SAGINAW MI ASOS

KHYX METAR

0122 PM NON-TSTM WND GST YPSILANTI 42.24N 83.62W
10/15/2011 M52.00 MPH WASHTENAW MI ASOS

KYIP ASOS

0128 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNE DOWNTOWN DETROIT 42.41N 83.01W
10/15/2011 M48.00 MPH WAYNE MI ASOS

KDET ASOS

0141 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE ROMULUS 42.21N 83.35W
10/15/2011 M46.00 MPH WAYNE MI ASOS

KDTW ASOS

0144 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ANN ARBOR 42.28N 83.73W
10/15/2011 M46.00 MPH WASHTENAW MI ASOS

KARB ASOS

&&

$$

KURIMSKI

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KDTX [151803]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 151803
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
203 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0122 PM NON-TSTM WND GST YPSILANTI 42.24N 83.62W
10/15/2011 M52.00 MPH WASHTENAW MI ASOS

KYIP ASOS

0128 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNE DOWNTOWN DETROIT 42.41N 83.01W
10/15/2011 M48.00 MPH WAYNE MI ASOS

KDET ASOS

0141 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE ROMULUS 42.21N 83.35W
10/15/2011 M46.00 MPH WAYNE MI ASOS

KDTW ASOS

0144 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ANN ARBOR 42.28N 83.73W
10/15/2011 M46.00 MPH WASHTENAW MI ASOS

KARB ASOS

&&

$$

KURIMSKI

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KDTX [151749]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 151749
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
148 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FLINT 43.02N 83.69W
10/15/2011 M46.00 MPH GENESEE MI ASOS

KFNT ASOS

1221 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PONTIAC 42.65N 83.29W
10/15/2011 M45.00 MPH OAKLAND MI ASOS

KPTK ASOS

&&

$$

KURIMSKI

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KDTX [151726]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 151726
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
126 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1241 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ADRIAN 41.90N 84.04W
10/15/2011 M48.00 MPH LENAWEE MI ASOS

KADG METAR

0115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ENE SAGINAW 43.43N 83.86W
10/15/2011 M46.00 MPH SAGINAW MI ASOS

KHYX METAR

&&

$$

KURIMSKI

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151641
SWODY2
SPC AC 151640

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ON DAY 2
WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY
STRONG FLOW WILL EXIST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE
BASE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO. VERY COOL AIR
ALOFT OVERSPREADING WARM LAKES MAY RESULT IN A FEW WEAK LAKE EFFECT
THUNDERSTORMS.

TO THE W...A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HEATING ALONG WITH WEAK
FORCING INCLUDING WLY UPSLOPE SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN MODERATE
MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER..GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...STORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE.

..JEWELL.. 10/15/2011

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KGRR [151615]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 151615
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST EAST GRAND RAPIDS 42.94N 85.61W
10/15/2011 M44 MPH KENT MI TRAINED SPOTTER

MEMORIAL FIELD.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [151613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 151613
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1213 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST TWIN LAKE 43.37N 86.17W
10/15/2011 M61 MPH MUSKEGON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND WAS 58 TO 61 MPH. SOME SMALL BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

$$

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KGRR [151552]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 151552
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1152 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1019 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND RAPIDS 42.96N 85.67W
10/15/2011 M45 MPH KENT MI MESONET

DOWNTOWN AT GVSU.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [151550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 151550
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW LANSING 42.77N 84.58W
10/15/2011 M41 MPH CLINTON MI ASOS

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [151549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 151549
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW CASCADE 42.88N 85.52W
10/15/2011 M41 MPH KENT MI ASOS

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [151547]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 151547
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1147 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SSE MUSKEGON 43.16N 86.23W
10/15/2011 M47 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [151545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 151545
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/15/2011 M56 MPH VAN BUREN MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

BETWEEN 7 AM AND 8 AM.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KBUF [151543]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 151543
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1132 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BUFFALO 42.89N 78.86W
10/15/2011 ERIE NY CITY OFFICIAL

CITY OFFICIAL REPORTED A HALF DOZEN TREES DOWN AROUND
THE CITY OF BUFFALO

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1100268

$$

JAM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151534
SWODY1
SPC AC 151532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT NEWD. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER WEST...ZONAL FLOW
AND SUBTLE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO THE S GLANCE PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

..HURLBUT/HART.. 10/15/2011

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KAPX [151359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 151359
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
959 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0944 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DRUMMOND ISLAND 46.01N 83.70W
10/15/2011 M53 MPH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JSL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151241
SWODY1
SPC AC 151239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW JUST N OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PIVOT NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC AS
AN UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DEVELOPS ESEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB ACCOMPANYING THE
MIDLEVEL LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
FOCUSED THIS MORNING NEAR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE AUGMENTED BY HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES FROM THE RELATIVELY WARM
LAKES...AND THEN SPREAD NEWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE WRN STATES...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES...AS WILL A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FROM ORE ACROSS
ID/MT/WY. GRADUAL LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTENING ALONG AN ASSOCIATED E-W
BAROCLINIC ZONE...COINCIDENT WITH THE N EDGE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE
PLUME...WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. ASCENT
ALONG THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON.. 10/15/2011

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KGRB [151126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 151126
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
626 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WASHINGTON ISLAND 45.38N 86.90W
10/15/2011 M47 MPH DOOR WI CO-OP OBSERVER

47 MPH OCCURRED SEVERAL TIMES OVERNIGHT

&&

$$

TH

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KAPX [151126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 151126
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
726 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0719 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W IRONTON 45.26N 85.24W
10/15/2011 M51 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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KAPX [151014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 151014
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
614 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0542 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNW BAY MILLS 46.49N 84.63W
10/15/2011 M48 MPH CHIPPEWA MI C-MAN STATION

POINT IROQUOIS

&&

$$

JZ

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KAPX [151012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 151012
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
612 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW MANISTEE 44.27N 86.36W
10/15/2011 M48 MPH LMZ346 MI C-MAN STATION

MANISTEE HARBOR

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE LEELANAU STATE PA 45.21N 85.55W
10/15/2011 M54 MPH LEELANAU MI C-MAN STATION

GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT

&&

$$

JZ

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150844
SWOD48
SPC AC 150843

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 /THU. OCT. 20/
AS AN INITIAL VORTEX/TROUGH CROSSES THE ERN CONUS. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH...MODEL HANDLING OF THE SUBSEQUENT/SHORTER-WAVELENGTH
TROUGHS IS LESS CONSISTENT -- AND THUS PREDICTABILITY OF ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST DAY 4 /TUE. OCT. 18/...AS A SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD APPEAR LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE CAROLINAS/ERN VA...WITH MOST
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THE
START OF DAY 5. AT THIS TIME...THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE WITH RESPECT TO
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD HINDER A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE EVENT.
THUS...WHILE A THREAT AREA WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED THIS
FORECAST...ADDITION OF AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES IS ANTICIPATED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS PRESUMING MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

..GOSS.. 10/15/2011

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KMQT [150813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 150813
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND MARAIS 46.67N 85.98W
10/15/2011 M62 MPH ALGER MI OTHER FEDERAL

MEASURED ON NWS GLOS MARINE STATION ON BREAKWATER AT
GRAND MARAIS.

&&

$$

JLA

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150723
SWODY3
SPC AC 150721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD AROUND THE SWRN SIDE OF THE
LARGE ERN NOAM VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TOWARD THE S CENTRAL
CONUS...RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGHING OVER THE
ERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES -- AND NOSE SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE
-- AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE WRN GULF THROUGH 18/12Z.

WARM-SECTOR CAPPING SHOULD PREVENT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EVIDENT N OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK -- I.E. IN A ZONE FROM THE OZARKS
EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...WITH CAPE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE...PRECLUDING ANY INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS
FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 10/15/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150556
SWODY2
SPC AC 150555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE FAST WNWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL INITIALLY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CONUS S AND SW OF THE LARGE/PERSISTENT ERN CANADA
VORTEX...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW EARLY WILL DIG
SEWD INTO THE ROCKIES -- THUS BEGINNING A RE-EXPANSION OF A LARGE
ERN CONUS TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BE GENERALLY
BENIGN...S OF THE VERY DEEP OCCLUDED LOW EXPECTED TO LINGER INVOF
JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH TIME...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS
FORECAST INVOF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED/DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF ERN OREGON AND INTO ID/SWRN MT/WRN WY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THIS AREA.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT S FL AND
THE KEYS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GOSS.. 10/15/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150433
SWODY1
SPC AC 150431

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2011

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN
THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -25C AT 500 MB/
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SECOND WAVE...AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
VT/NH/ME...FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

FARTHER S...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S
TO NEAR 70F AND PW VALUES AOA 1.75 INCHES/ WILL PERSIST OVER FAR SRN
FL DURING THE DAY. DESPITE THIS MOISTURE...A SUBSIDENT LARGE-SCALE
REGIME AND WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

OVER THE WRN CONUS...ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM
THE NERN TROUGH. STEEPENING AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTENING ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED
FROM CNTRL ID E TOWARD YELLOWSTONE...MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

..GARNER/GRAMS.. 10/15/2011

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