SWODY1
SPC AC 151239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW JUST N OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PIVOT NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC AS
AN UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DEVELOPS ESEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB ACCOMPANYING THE
MIDLEVEL LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
FOCUSED THIS MORNING NEAR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE AUGMENTED BY HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES FROM THE RELATIVELY WARM
LAKES...AND THEN SPREAD NEWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE WRN STATES...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES...AS WILL A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FROM ORE ACROSS
ID/MT/WY. GRADUAL LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTENING ALONG AN ASSOCIATED E-W
BAROCLINIC ZONE...COINCIDENT WITH THE N EDGE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE
PLUME...WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. ASCENT
ALONG THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
..THOMPSON.. 10/15/2011
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