KMFR [160343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 160343
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
843 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0841 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
03/15/2009 M2.60 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

8AM-8PM PDT

&&

$$

SVEN

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KMFR [160342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 160342
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0827 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW WINSTON 43.10N 123.43W
03/15/2009 M1.07 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALSO RAINED A LOT FROM 5 TO 8
AM.

&&

$$

STOCKTON

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KMFR [160329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 160329
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
829 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0827 PM HEAVY RAIN 25 ENE MYRTLE POINT 43.20N 123.67W
03/15/2009 E2.47 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

AT SITKUM. 2.47 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. 2.75 INCHES STORM
TOTAL. SOME MINOR FLOODING BUT NOTHING SERIOUS.

&&

$$

STOCKTON

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KBOI [160314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 160314
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
914 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

&&

$$

GSKARI

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KPDT [160313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 160313
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
813 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0811 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ENE WEST VALLEY 46.62N 120.51W
03/15/2009 E35 MPH YAKIMA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS DECREASING AROUND THE YAKIMA VALLEY. GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH ESTIMATED AROUND THE TERRICE HEIGHTS AREA

&&

$$

RQB

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KMFR [160249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 160249
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
749 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 NNE POWERS 42.99N 124.01W
03/15/2009 M1.70 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HRS ENDING 5 PM

&&

$$

STAVISH

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KMFR [160229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 160229
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
729 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0728 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW ETNA 41.44N 122.90W
03/15/2009 M1.00 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HRS ENDING 730 PM.

&&

$$

STAVISH

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KMSO [160222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 160222
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
822 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0816 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 E ESSEX 48.28N 113.39W
03/15/2009 U0.0 INCH FLATHEAD MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SEVERE DRIVING CONDITIONS ON US-2 MARIAS PASS FROM MP
189.9 TO 198.

0816 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 E ESSEX 48.28N 113.39W
03/15/2009 E7.0 INCH FLATHEAD MT MESONET

6.5 INCHES OF SNOW AT MARIAS PASS DURING PAST 24 HOURS
FROM MESONET SENSOR

&&

$$

DICKERSON

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KOTX [160222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 160222
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
721 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE WARDEN 46.96N 118.99W
03/15/2009 M68.00 MPH GRANT WA TRAINED SPOTTER

GRANT 22 - ELEVATION 1200 FT

0511 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW SPOKANE 47.73N 117.44W
03/15/2009 SPOKANE WA UTILITY COMPANY

FIVE MILE PRAIRIE - 620 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER DUE TO
WIND

0514 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E AIRWAY HEIGHTS 47.64N 117.53W
03/15/2009 M66.00 MPH SPOKANE WA ASOS

SPOKANE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

&&

$$

CNEUMAN

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KMFR [160213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 160213
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
712 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0711 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSE COOS BAY 43.34N 124.21W
03/15/2009 M1.15 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

7AM TO 7 PM PDT

&&

$$

SVEN

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KBIS [160133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 160133
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
833 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0813 PM FLOOD MEDORA 46.91N 103.52W
03/15/2009 BILLINGS ND EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO ICE JAMS REPORTED BY THE BILLINGS COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGER. ONE JAM AT THE RAILROAD BRIDGE IN MEDORA ON THE
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER, AND THE SECOND WHERE THE ANDRES
CREEK ENTERS THE LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER. HOUSES BEING
SURROUNDED BY WATER AS WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE.

&&

$$

PJA

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KTFX [160114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 160114
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
714 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1221 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
03/15/2009 M57 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

57 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KPIH [160051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 160051
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
651 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0651 PM SNOW 6 NNW KETCHUM 43.78N 114.41W
03/15/2009 M3.0 INCH BLAINE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

PANGEL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160048
SWODY1
SPC AC 160044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COAST STATES...

POSITIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY SSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE
EWD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS TONIGHT. DCVA ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

...WA/ID PNHDL...

00Z UIL/OTX SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP LAPSE
RATES OWING LARGELY TO COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-28 TO -35 C AT
500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT JET
STREAKS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE AIR MASS REMAINS RATHER
DRY /PW VALUES BELOW .4 INCH/...THESE LAPSE RATES WHERE RESULTING IN
MUCAPE OF 300-400 J/KG. MOREOVER...ACCOMPANYING WIND PROFILES
EXHIBITED QUITE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TSTMS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO BECOME SUSTAINED OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN OF ERN WA
INVOF OF SURFACE FRONT. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CORRELATED WITH THE
ZONE OF STRONGEST DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
EWD ACROSS THE ID PNHDL. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED COVERAGE
AND SHORT DURATION...NO GENERAL THUNDER AREA WILL BE INCLUDED.

..MEAD.. 03/16/2009

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KBIS [160047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 160047
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
747 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0743 PM FLOOD MEDORA 46.91N 103.52W
03/15/2009 BILLINGS ND EMERGENCY MNGR

ICE JAM REPORTED AT THE RAIL ROAD BRIDGE IN THE TOWN OF
MEDORA. TWO HOMES ARE FLOODED. REPORTED BY THE BILLINGS
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

$$

PJA

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KSEW [160043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 160043
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
543 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0539 PM SNOW 12 E SHELTON 47.21N 122.85W
03/15/2009 M3.0 INCH MASON WA PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

0540 PM SNOW 1 WNW FEDERAL WAY 47.32N 122.36W
03/15/2009 M1.5 INCH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN AROUND 9 AM.

0540 PM SNOW LYNNWOOD 47.83N 122.30W
03/15/2009 M1.2 INCH SNOHOMISH WA NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM TOTAL FROM THIS MORNING.

0540 PM SNOW 4 SE EVERETT 47.92N 122.14W
03/15/2009 E1.0 INCH SNOHOMISH WA NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM TOTAL FROM THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

DDAMICO

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KPDT [160014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KPDT 160014
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
514 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0411 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE TAMPICO 46.54N 120.83W
03/15/2009 E35.00 MPH YAKIMA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED WINDS 30-35 MPH WITH CONTINUOUS GUST OF OVER 40
MPH, AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. TEMPERATURE 51
DEGREES.

0417 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ENE WEST VALLEY 46.62N 120.51W
03/15/2009 M55.00 MPH YAKIMA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

55 MPH WIND MEASURED, BUT NO DAMAGE REPORTED OTHER THAN
TREE LIMBS BREAKING OFF. THE ARE AN INCH OR LESS IN
DIAMETER. THE WINDS ARE STILL REDUCING THE VISIBILITY
ALONG YAKIMA AVE. IN EAT YAKIMA TO A 1/4 MILE WITH THE
STRONGST GUSTS.

0451 PM DUST STORM NNE WEST RICHLAND 46.32N 119.40W
03/15/2009 BENTON WA LAW ENFORCEMENT

A STATE TROOPER REPORTED THAT AREAS OF ZERO VISIBIBILITY
DUE TO BLOWING DUST HAVE SPAWNED A COUPLE OF AUTO
ACCIDENTS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 240 AND SR 24 NEAR VERNITA
BRIDGE AND THE NORTHERN ENTRANCE OF HANFORD NUCLEAR
RESERVATION. ROAD CLOSURES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN
THESE AREAS AND FROM MILE POST 50-70 ON INTERSTATE 90.

&&

$$

RQB

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KPDT [160013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 160013
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
513 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0411 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE TAMPICO 46.54N 120.83W
03/15/2009 E35.00 MPH YAKIMA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED WINDS 30-35 MPH WITH CONTINUOUS GUST OF OVER 40
MPH, AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. TEMPERATURE 51
DEGREES.

0417 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ENE WEST VALLEY 46.62N 120.51W
03/15/2009 M55.00 MPH YAKIMA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

55 MPH WIND MEASURED, BUT NO DAMAGE REPORTED OTHER THAN
TREE LIMBS BREAKING OFF. THE ARE AN INCH OR LESS IN
DIAMETER. THE WINDS ARE STILL REDUCING THE VISIBILITY
ALONG YAKIMA AVE. IN EAT YAKIMA TO A 1/4 MILE WITH THE
STRONGST GUSTS.

0451 PM DUST STORM NNE WEST RICHLAND 46.32N 119.40W
03/15/2009 BENTON WA LAW ENFORCEMENT

A STATE TROOPER REPORTED THAT AREAS OF ZERO VISIBIBILITY
DUE TO BLOWING DUST HAVE SPAWNED A COUPLE OF AUTO
ACCIDENTS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 240 AND SR 24 NEAR VERNITA
BRIDGE AND THE NORTHERN ENTRANCE OF HANFORD NUCLEAR
RESERVATION. ROAD CLOSURES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN
THESE AREAS AND FROM MILE POST 50-70 ON INTERSTATE 90.

&&

$$

RQB

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KCRP [152314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 152314
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0153 PM LIGHTNING PORT ARANSAS 27.83N 97.08W
03/15/2009 NUECES TX NEWSPAPER

*** 1 FATAL *** A 65 YEAR OLD MAN WAS STRUCK AND KILLED
BY LIGHTNING ON MUSTANG ISLAND BEACH NEAR PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

RUNYEN

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KMFR [152259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 152259
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
359 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0358 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 N WEED 41.52N 122.37W
03/15/2009 M49 MPH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22 MPH

&&

$$

SUGDEN

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KPDT [152224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 152224
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
324 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 1 N TROUT LAKE 46.02N 121.53W
03/15/2009 M4.0 INCH KLICKITAT WA TRAINED SPOTTER

RECEIVED 4 INCHES SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY 32
DEGREES WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

0900 AM SNOW 8 SE CLIFFDELL 46.85N 120.95W
03/15/2009 M3.5 INCH YAKIMA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

RECEIVED 3.5 INCHES SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY 34
DEGREES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

1144 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW GRANDVIEW 46.20N 119.98W
03/15/2009 M58.00 MPH YAKIMA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

PEAK WIND GUST OF 58 MPH RECORDED IN MABTON.

0113 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ENE WEST VALLEY 46.62N 120.51W
03/15/2009 E55.00 MPH YAKIMA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

0113 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 ENE WEST VALLEY 46.62N 120.51W
03/15/2009 YAKIMA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

BRANCHES BREAKING OFF TREES AND BLOWING DUST REDUCING

VISIBILITY TO HALF MILE AT TIMES. GARBAGE CANS AND ITEMS
BEING THROWN INTO THE AIR. ESTIMATED WIND GUST TO 55 MPH.

&&

$$

AA

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KMFR [152211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 152211
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
311 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE SELMA 42.30N 123.59W
03/15/2009 M1.82 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR PERIOD

&&

$$

SUGDEN

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KMFR [152139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 152139
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
239 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0239 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW WILDERVILLE 42.36N 123.56W
03/15/2009 M2.10 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 7 PM LAST NIGHT

&&

$$

SUGDEN

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KMFR [152134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 152134
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
233 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0232 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SE CAVE JUNCTION 42.11N 123.58W
03/15/2009 M1.00 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HRS ENDING 230 PM

&&

$$

STAVISH

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KBOI [152036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 152036
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
236 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM SNOW 4 E CASCADE 44.52N 115.97W
03/15/2009 M5.0 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES NEW SINCE LAST NIGHT.

0200 PM SNOW 15 SE DONNELLY 44.58N 115.86W
03/15/2009 E4.0 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES TODAY.

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 WSW DONNELLY 44.71N 116.14W
03/15/2009 M9.0 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

9 INCHES SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT.

0200 PM SNOW 6 S MCCALL 44.82N 116.08W
03/15/2009 M6.0 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCHES TODAY AS OF 2 PM

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 S MCCALL 44.85N 116.11W
03/15/2009 M8.0 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

8 INCHES SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

0200 PM SNOW 4 E MCCALL 44.91N 116.03W
03/15/2009 M6.0 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCHES TODAY.

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 SSE MCCALL 44.90N 116.10W
03/15/2009 M7.0 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

7 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT.

0200 PM SNOW SE MCCALL 44.91N 116.10W
03/15/2009 E5.0 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT.

0200 PM SNOW 7 NW MCCALL 44.99N 116.21W
03/15/2009 M7.0 INCH ADAMS ID PARK/FOREST SRVC

7 INCES ON BRUNDAGE SNOW STAKE.

0200 PM SNOW 12 NE BOISE 43.73N 116.06W
03/15/2009 M6.0 INCH BOISE ID PARK/FOREST SRVC

6 INCHES ON BOGUS SNOW STAKE.

0200 PM SNOW 5 N DONNELLY 44.80N 116.08W
03/15/2009 E5.0 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SETTLING.

&&

$$

LHOLT

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KSEW [152025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 152025
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
125 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1214 PM SNOW 3 SW BRINNON 47.65N 122.94W
03/15/2009 M6.5 INCH JEFFERSON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL. ELEVATION 700 FEET.

1254 PM SNOW 5 ENE SHELTON 47.26N 123.01W
03/15/2009 M3.5 INCH MASON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DDAMICO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151935
SWODY1
SPC AC 151933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COASTAL STATES...
BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERED THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS
OF CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN FL/SERN AL/SWRN GA AND ALSO IN
THE TX GULF COSTAL PLAINS/NWRN GULF. AT THE SAME TIME...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. A QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED WWD FROM THE
GA/SC BORDER TO THE AL/GA BORDER...AND THEN SWWD INTO THE EXTREME
WRN FL PANHANDLE. CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS
NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.
DESPITE MUCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND VEERING WIND PROFILES...
WEAKENING FORCING SUGGESTS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS WANING.

PCPN/CONVECTION OVER SERN TX/NWRN GULF IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EXPAND
ENEWD OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT LOCATED AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE UPDRAFT ROOTS WILL BE SITUATED ABOVE THE
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...BETWEEN 850-900 MB. THE ELEVATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION PLUS WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...AOB 250 J/KG...INDICATES THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD BE QUITE LOW.

..IMY.. 03/15/2009

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KMFR [151903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 151903
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1203 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1202 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW COOS BAY 43.38N 124.24W
03/15/2009 M1.50 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR PERIOD

&&

$$

SUGDEN

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KMFR [151734]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 151734
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1034 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1034 AM HEAVY RAIN SSW PORT ORFORD 42.75N 124.50W
03/15/2009 M2.95 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR PERIOD

&&

$$

SUGDEN

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KSEW [151725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 151725
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1025 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 3 S TUMWATER 46.96N 122.92W
03/15/2009 M1.0 INCH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 AM SNOW 3 N BAYSHORE 47.29N 123.04W
03/15/2009 M2.5 INCH MASON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW BREMERTON 47.55N 122.70W
03/15/2009 E3.0 INCH KITSAP WA PUBLIC

0830 AM SNOW 10 E ABERDEEN 46.98N 123.64W
03/15/2009 M3.0 INCH GRAYS HARBOR WA CO-OP OBSERVER

0900 AM SNOW 1 SSW POTLATCH 47.36N 123.16W
03/15/2009 M2.5 INCH MASON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEVATION IS AT SEA LEVEL.

0900 AM SNOW 5 SSE BETHEL 47.43N 122.57W
03/15/2009 M2.3 INCH KITSAP WA TRAINED SPOTTER

0930 AM SNOW 5 NNW GRAND MOUND 46.88N 123.04W
03/15/2009 M2.3 INCH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

200 FEET ELEVATION.

1000 AM SNOW 1 NW VAUGHN 47.35N 122.78W
03/15/2009 M3.5 INCH PIERCE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAS SWITCHED TO RAIN.

1015 AM SNOW 3 SW BRINNON 47.65N 122.94W
03/15/2009 M4.0 INCH JEFFERSON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEVATION 700 FEET. STILL SNOWING.

&&

$$

DDAMICO

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151707
SWODY2
SPC AC 151704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE
LOWER/MID MS VALLEY REGION EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW WILL COVER THE CONUS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...LOCATED WITHIN
A LARGE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NERN PACIFIC/WRN CANADA...WILL EJECT
NEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

...SERN STATES...
LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT ABOVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND SPREAD
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NWRN GULF...NEWD INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
REGION ON MON. DEEP SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAK
LAPSE RATES. ALSO...SINCE THE UPDRAFT ROOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED ABOVE THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL.

...PAC NW COAST...
STRONGLY WLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WEAK...THE COMBINATION
OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 550 MB AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COASTAL WA...WHERE
500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -30C TO -35C.

..IMY.. 03/15/2009

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KHGX [151640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 151640
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1140 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM HAIL 2 SE ADDICKS 29.76N 95.62W
03/15/2009 E0.75 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AT VOSS.

&&

$$

PBLOOD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151619
SWODY1
SPC AC 151616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AL/FL/GA...
LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM TX ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SEVERAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...HELPING TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE FEATURE
IS NOTED OVER TN/AL/MS AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MOB INTO CENTRAL GA. BROKEN
CLOUDS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THE RISK OF A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD
SOUTHWEST GA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO INDICATE A RISK OF
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUST. PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD NUMBER 229 FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
THIS AREA.

...TX...
FARTHER WEST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MIDDLE TX GULF COAST REGION. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH TX.
ISOLATED AND HIGHLY-ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. RATHER STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MIGHT YIELD SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...BUT
AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX...SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA AS WELL.

..HART/GARNER.. 03/15/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0229

ACUS11 KWNS 151613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151613
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-151845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE...SERN AL...SWRN GA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151613Z - 151845Z

BAND OF CONVECTION FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR WW...THOUGH BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR LEWP/BOW CIRCULATIONS. STG GUSTS ALSO
MAY OCCUR IN VERY ISOLATED/LOCALIZED FASHION WITH LEWP/BOW FEATURES.
HOWEVER...LACK OF BOTH DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS AND OF MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFT BUOYANCY INDICATES THAT ORGANIZED SVR WIND POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN VERY SLIM AND CONDITIONAL.

AT 16Z...CONVECTIVE BAND -- CONSISTING OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS -- WAS EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL GA SWWD ACROSS
BARBOUR/BALDWIN COUNTIES AL...CROSSING PORTIONS ESCAMBIA/SANTA ROSA
COUNTIES FL. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL
POTIONS GA COAST GENERALLY WWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL GA THEN NWWD TO JUST
N ABY...INTERSECTING CONVECTIVE BAND. NET EWD MOTION OF CONVECTION
IS APPROXIMATELY 20 KT...THOUGH SOME DECELERATION IS POSSIBLE DURING
MID-DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN LOW
CLOUDS IN FOREGOING WARM SECTOR...WHEREIN ASSOCIATED/GRADUAL SFC
HEATING WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO BOOST MLCAPES
INTO 500-1000 J/KG RANGE THROUGH 18Z. NRN EDGE OF SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO ERODE INLAND PERHAPS AS FAR AS SWRN
GA...ALONG AND SW OF WARM FRONT. LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE MRGLLY FAVORABLE -- BUT WITH SLIGHT TENDENCY TO WEAKEN WITH
TIME. THIS TREND WILL BE LATED TO VEERING OF BOTH SFC WINDS AND
EXPECTED WEAKENING OF LLJ...EACH OF WHICH ALSO WILL ACT TO MINIMIZE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SHRINK LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SLIGHTLY...AND FAVOR
CONTINUED DOMINANCE OF LINEAR CHARACTER OF CONVECTION. OTHER THAN
MRGL LOW LEVEL SRH...LIMITING FACTOR FOR BETTER ORGANIZED TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE LINEAR STORM MODE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR PERSISTING AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

..EDWARDS.. 03/15/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30228768 32278448 29588502 29688520 29668536 29848544
29908535 30298604 30398659 30308725 30228768

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KLOT [151425]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 151425
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
925 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM FLOOD 4 S KOUTS 41.26N 87.03W
03/15/2009 PORTER IN EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOOD WATER FLOWING ACROSS COUNTY ROAD E1200S
APPROXIMATELY 0.7 MILES NORTH OF LEVEE BREAK ALONG NORTH
BANK OF KANKAKEE RIVER.

&&

$$

RATZER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151224
SWODY1
SPC AC 151221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POSITIVE TILT SRN STREAM TROUGH FROM KS TO NM WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EWD TO THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC NW WITHIN A STRONG
ZONAL JET. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
OVERSPREAD WRN WA TODAY AND BE MAINTAINED THROUGH TONIGHT IN AN
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK
AREA.

...FL PANHANDLE INTO SW GA TODAY...
A WEAKENING AND SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST PRECEDES THE POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAINTAIN WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE WARM
SECTOR NEAR THE NE GULF COAST...THOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
MUCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A RESIDUAL BELT OF 30-40 KT SWLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RETREATING
WEDGE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADO THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH THE THREAT SHOULD
END.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/15/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150839
SWOD48
SPC AC 150838

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NON-EXISTENT THROUGH
THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXPANDS OVER -- AND THEN
PROGRESSES ACROSS -- THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...FOLLOWED BY THE
EXPANSION OF A TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN CONUS DAYS 7-8. SHOULD MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL FORECASTS
PROVE CORRECT...SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
MEAN TIME HOWEVER...A LACK OF AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INITIAL
UPPER TROUGH -- PRECLUDES THE LIKELIHOOD FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE
WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/15/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150613
SWODY3
SPC AC 150611

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SRN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE
ERN U.S. -- IS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS PERIOD...WITH FLOW OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS TO TREND TOWARD A MORE ZONAL REGIME WITH
TIME S OF A TROUGH CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA.

WHILE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY -- AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS -- SHIFTS SWD ACROSS FL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ERN U.S. SRN STREAM TROUGH...A STRONGER FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HOWEVER...A CLOSED GULF SUGGESTS ONLY MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN...WHILE WLY FLOW ALOFT ADVECTS AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULTING LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LIKELY-TO-BE-CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED/WARM SECTOR STORMS.

..GOSS.. 03/15/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150514
SWODY2
SPC AC 150513

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SRN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND
ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. S OF A LARGE TROUGH IN THE NRN STREAM --
OVER NERN PACIFIC/WRN CANADA/AK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER FRONT -- ALIGNED ENE-WSW ACROSS MT
AND THE PAC NW -- CONTINUES MAKING VERY SLOW SEWD PROGRESS.

...SERN STATES...
WEAK CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS
PERIOD...INVOF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER...A FEW EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...PAC NW COAST...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. WHILE A
GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE THUNDER
POTENTIAL IN MOST AREAS...WILL INTRODUCE A 10% THUNDER LINE ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF WA WHERE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEARS TO EXIST.

..GOSS.. 03/15/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150452
SWODY1
SPC AC 150449

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SERIES
OF IMPULSES WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH BASE OF BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SERN STATES. COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER AL INTO THE NWRN GULF EARLY SUNDAY WILL ADVANCE
SLOWLY SEWD WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL GA.

...SERN STATES...

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL AND SWRN GA. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE SERN STATES WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
ENEWD DURING THE DAY. SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG SRN EXTENT OF THE RAIN AREA FROM SERN AL...SWRN GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. DESPITE INFLUX OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY
MARGINAL IN WARM SECTOR DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG LIKELY.

A SWLY 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE THROUGH CNTRL AND NE GA EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NE AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE EJECTING IMPULSE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
WITH FORECAST 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ON THE ORDER OF 200-300
M2/S2 FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL AND SW GA. WILL INTRODUCE A
CONDITIONAL 2% PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT STILL APPEARS THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 03/15/2009

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