SWODY1
SPC AC 151221
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POSITIVE TILT SRN STREAM TROUGH FROM KS TO NM WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EWD TO THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC NW WITHIN A STRONG
ZONAL JET. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
OVERSPREAD WRN WA TODAY AND BE MAINTAINED THROUGH TONIGHT IN AN
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK
AREA.
...FL PANHANDLE INTO SW GA TODAY...
A WEAKENING AND SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST PRECEDES THE POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAINTAIN WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE WARM
SECTOR NEAR THE NE GULF COAST...THOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
MUCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A RESIDUAL BELT OF 30-40 KT SWLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RETREATING
WEDGE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADO THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH THE THREAT SHOULD
END.
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/15/2009
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