KOTX [080222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KOTX 080222
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
722 PM PDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0441 PM TORNADO 6 SE CRAIGMONT 46.18N 116.37W
10/07/2010 LEWIS ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

CORRECTED FOR LOCATION....LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT RELAYED
MESSAGE OF A TORNADO WITNESSED BY THE PUBLIC JUST SOUTH
OF NEW HOPE ROAD NEAR LAWYER CANYON APPROX 6 MILES SE OF
CRAIGMONT.

&&

$$

SBODNAR

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KOTX [080206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KOTX 080206
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
706 PM PDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0441 PM TORNADO 6 SW NEZPERCE 46.17N 116.33W
10/07/2010 IDAHO ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT RELAYED MESSAGE OF A TORNADO
WITNESSED BY THE PUBLIC JUST SOUTH OF NEW HOPE ROAD NEAR
LAWYER CANYON APPROX 6.4 MILES SW OF NEZ PERCE.

&&

$$

SBODNAR

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 696

WWUS20 KWNS 080203
SEL6
SPC WW 080203
COZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-080200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
803 PM MDT THU OCT 7 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 696 ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT FOR PORTIONS OF

COLORADO
UTAH
WYOMING

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KGJT [080126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 080126 CCA
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
526 PM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0653 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E RIFLE 39.55N 107.72W
10/06/2010 M64 MPH GARFIELD CO ASOS

CORRECTED DATE AND TIME OF EVENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000695

$$

EH

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KGJT [080119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 080119 CCA
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 PM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0336 PM TSTM WND GST 1 S MEEKER 40.04N 107.89W
10/07/2010 M58 MPH RIO BLANCO CO ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000696

$$

EH

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KBOI [080104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 080104
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
704 PM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0631 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSE MARSING 43.49N 116.79W
10/07/2010 M0.67 INCH OWYHEE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN WITH .67 INCHES IN 20 MINUTES. LIGHT WINDS.
OCCASIONAL THUNDER.

0633 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 WNW MELBA 43.40N 116.69W
10/07/2010 E0.00 INCH OWYHEE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN JUST STARTING WITH 15 -20 MPH WINDS.
OCCASIONAL THUNDER. STORM CENTER TO THE SOUTH.

0638 PM LIGHTNING MERIDIAN 43.61N 116.40W
10/07/2010 ADA ID NWS EMPLOYEE

THUNDERSTORM OVER MERIDIAN AT CHINDEN AND EAGLE ROADS.
LIGHT RAIN AND WINDS.

&&

$$

LHOLT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080053
SWODY1
SPC AC 080051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2010

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS PART OF BROADER OVERALL SHIFT TOWARD LOWER AMPLITUDE...THIS
EVENING'S UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES EJECTING CYCLONE OVER GREAT
BASIN THAT WILL DEVOLVE TO OPEN-WAVE CHARACTER THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD. RESULTING/HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD REACH WRN
MT...ID/WY BORDER REGION AND NERN AZ BY 12Z. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROCEED EWD ACROSS ERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHILE FOREGOING LEE
TROUGH BECOMES MORE SHARPLY DEFINED OVER HIGH PLAINS FROM MT-NM.

...ERN GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
TWO PRIMARY CORRIDORS OF CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT...FIRST FROM
S-CENTRAL/SERN WY SSWWD ACROSS WRN CO TO NWRN NM NEAR LOW-LEVEL
FRONT...SECOND OVER S-CENTRAL/NERN UT BENEATH COLDER AIR ALOFT.
POCKETS OF RESIDUAL LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUSTAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER
EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH ERN BAND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
EACH ARE SOMEWHAT STRONGER. HOWEVER...SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND
BOUNDARY-LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM NOW THROUGH
END OF PERIOD...RESULTING FROM COMBINATION OF DIABATIC COOLING AND
INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. MEANWHILE...DURING NEXT
1-2 HOURS...ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938 FOR NOWCAST
DETAILS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/08/2010

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KMSO [080049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 080049
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
648 PM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TORNADO 2 SW FERDINAND 46.13N 116.42W
10/07/2010 IDAHO ID PARK/FOREST SRVC

FOREST SERVICE EMPLOYEE OBSERVED A SMALL TORNADO THAT
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE GROUND WEST OF GREENCREEK.

0522 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 W FERDINAND 46.15N 116.41W
10/07/2010 IDAHO ID TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD THAT WAS CLOSE TO
THE GROUND.

&&

$$

KITSMILLER

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KOTX [080015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 080015
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
515 PM PDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0441 PM TORNADO 4 W NEZPERCE 46.23N 116.32W
10/07/2010 LEWIS ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR LAWYER

CANYON AND NEW HOPE ROAD BETWEEN NEZ PERCE AND CRAIGMONT.

&&

$$

SBODNAR

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KSLC [080015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 080015
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
615 PM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM FLASH FLOOD 7 NW HUNTINGTON 39.40N 111.06W
10/07/2010 EMERY UT COUNTY OFFICIAL

MUDSLIDE OVER STATE ROUTE 31 NEAR THE HUNTINGTON CANYON
COAL PLANT.

0610 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W JOE'S VALLEY RES 39.31N 111.32W
10/07/2010 SANPETE UT COUNTY OFFICIAL

MUDSLIDE ONTO STATE ROUTE 29 AT MILE MARKER 8 NEAR JOES
VALLEY RESERVOIR.

&&

$$

HOSENFELD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1938

ACUS11 KWNS 080001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080001
WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-080100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN UT/WESTERN WY/SOUTHERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696...

VALID 080001Z - 080100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696
CONTINUES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/WINDS GUSTS. OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WW 696 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT/BY 02Z.

ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PIVOTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX ACROSS CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT AND VERY STRONG DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW /REFERENCE GRAND JUNCTION WSR-88D VWP/ WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SOME WELL-SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL/WIND...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST UT/FAR SOUTHWEST WY AND WESTERN
CO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COOL...SUCH THAT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME
MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL THROUGH THE 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

..GUYER.. 10/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON 39061089 41440977 41790806 41100698 40180711 38380812
37880922 38171036 39061089

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KABQ [080001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 080001
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
601 PM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HAIL 7 NE FARMINGTON 36.83N 108.10W
10/07/2010 E0.75 INCH SAN JUAN NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002167

$$

AA

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KGJT [072351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 072351
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 PM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0547 PM TSTM WND GST 1 S MEEKER 40.04N 107.89W
10/07/2010 M58 MPH RIO BLANCO CO ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000696

$$

EH

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KGJT [072326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 072326
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
526 PM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E RIFLE 39.55N 107.72W
10/07/2010 M64 MPH GARFIELD CO ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000695

$$

EH

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KSLC [072314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 072314
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
514 PM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0506 PM HAIL PRICE 39.60N 110.80W
10/07/2010 M0.88 INCH CARBON UT LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

MCONGER

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KSLC [072250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 072250
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
450 PM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E CAPITOL REEF NP 38.28N 111.16W
10/07/2010 WAYNE UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WATER OVER SR 24 EAST OF THE VISITOR CENTER

&&

$$

MCONGER

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KSLC [072155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 072155
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 PM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM FLASH FLOOD 9 SE CANNONVILLE 37.47N 111.94W
10/07/2010 KANE UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

FLASH FLOOD REPORTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF KODACHROME BASIN
STATE PARK. 0.6 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED IN THE AREA,
BUT WET CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SATURATED
SOILS IN THE AREA.

&&

$$

HOSENFELD

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KBTV [072155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBTV 072155
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
554 PM EDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM HAIL SOUTH BURLINGTON 44.45N 73.22W
10/07/2010 E0.25 INCH CHITTENDEN VT NWS EMPLOYEE

0335 PM HAIL STOWE 44.47N 72.69W
10/07/2010 E0.25 INCH LAMOILLE VT PUBLIC

0430 PM HAIL TUPPER LAKE 44.23N 74.47W
10/07/2010 E0.25 INCH FRANKLIN NY PUBLIC

0346 PM HAIL BAKERSFIELD 44.78N 72.80W
10/07/2010 E0.25 INCH FRANKLIN VT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BILLH

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KMKX [072038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 072038
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TORNADO 4 SE JANESVILLE AIRPORT 42.58N 88.99W
09/21/2010 ROCK WI TRAINED SPOTTER

WEAK MINIMAL EF0 TORNADO JUST SOUTHEAST OF INTERSECTION
OF COUNTY ROAD G AND PHILHOWER RD. NO FATALITIES OR
INJURIES. ONLY MINOR TREE LIMB DAMAGE. NO STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. LIFESPAN WAS ABOUT A MINUTE AND IT MOVED ENE.
PATH LENGTH ABOUT 2200 FEET. MAX PATH WIDTH ABOUT 30
YARDS. DAMAGE IMPLIED WIND SPEED ABOUT 70 MPH. DAMAGE
SURVEY CONDUCTED BY MIDWEST SEVERE STORM TRACKING AND
RESPONSE CENTER BASED IN DANE COUNTY PER REQUEST BY WFO
MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN.

&&

$$

MKAVINSK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071957
SWODY1
SPC AC 071955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2010

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WY/ERN
UT/WRN CO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...

...SRN WY/ERN UT/WRN CO AND THE FOUR CORNERS...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE...WITH
STORMS NOW INCREASING IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
THREAT AREA/AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX NOW MOVING NEWD TOWARD/INTO SWRN
UT. MODEST INSTABILITY BUT FAIRLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT /50 TO 60 KT AT
H5/ SUGGESTS THAT LIMITED THREAT REMAINS LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL.

..GOSS.. 10/07/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010/

...ERN UT/FOUR CORNERS TO CNTRL RCKYS...
CA UPPER LOW FINALLY ON THE MOVE AND WILL TRACK ENEWD TO NRN UT BY
12Z FRI. ONE MORE SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBE AND MID LEVEL JET MAX
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW SHOWS UP WELL ON W/V IMAGERY SRN CA THIS AM.
THIS WILL SPREAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WHILE THE MOISTURE FEED INTO ERN UT/WRN CO FROM THE S HAS DIMINISHED
FROM WED...EXPECT TO STILL HAVE PWAT ABOVE .5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LVL FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPR LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
E ACROSS ERN UT INTO FAR WRN CO TODAY...WITH SFC HEATING REMOVING
CINH AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES TO ABOVE 8C/KM. SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S... SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD POCKETS OF SBCAPE UP TO 500
J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SLOW EWD
ADVANCE OF MAIN UPR SYSTEM...EXPECT 50-60 KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR OVER
THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA WITH THE STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL...DESPITE MARGINAL BUOYANCY. STORMS
COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
AFOREMENTIONED SRN CA SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION...
ENHANCING BOTH ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR.

HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS/BRIEF
SUPERCELLS...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH BASES ANY TORNADO THREAT WOULD
BE SMALL. HOWEVER SUPERCELLS WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND AND HAIL
CONCERN.

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 696

WWUS20 KWNS 071953
SEL6
SPC WW 071953
COZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-080200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM MDT THU OCT 7 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF WESTERN COLORADO
LARGE PART OF EASTERN UTAH
SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF BULLFROG MARINA UTAH TO 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RAWLINS WYOMING. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH AND UPPER JET STREAK MOVING NEWD
INTO UT ATTM WHERE AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING. STEEP LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO AOA 500 J/KG
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS DEVELOPING INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH
ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AT AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD.
PARAMETERS ALSO FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE BOTH THE HAIL AND WIND THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.

...HALES

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KCYS [071935]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 071935
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
135 PM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0117 PM HAIL 20 E RAWLINS 41.78N 106.84W
10/07/2010 E0.50 INCH CARBON WY PUBLIC

THE LARGEST WAS DIME SIZE.

&&

$$

DDEAL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1937

ACUS11 KWNS 071918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071918
COZ000-UTZ000-072115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT AND EXTREME WRN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071918Z - 072115Z

...RISK FOR SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS INCREASING...

TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 20-21Z WITH BRIEF SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
PRIMARY AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE E OF THE CNTRL/SWRN UT MOUNTAINS
ENE INTO FAR WRN CO THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PV-ANOMALY RAPIDLY MOVING ENE INTO
SCNTRL UT/NCNTRL AZ. DOWNSTREAM CUMULIFORM FIELD HAS BECOME
ESPECIALLY AGITATED ALONG/E OF THE SRN UT MOUNTAINS WHERE AIR MASS
HAS BEEN HEATING STEADILY AMIDST PRECIPITABLE WATERS AOA HALF OF AN
INCH. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT/COOLING CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
IMPROVING QUALITY WARM SECTOR...STORMS SHOULD BECOME SUSTAINED.
GIVEN VERY STRONG...GENERALLY SLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH QUICK EVOLUTION INTO
FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. STORMS TODAY WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
HIGHER-BASED THAT THOSE THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...SO WHILE THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE NON-ZERO...PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL
PROBABLY SIDE MORE WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL.

..RACY.. 10/07/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON 37100989 37181061 37401167 37931168 38991120 40031108
40581050 40660977 40500893 40350838 39700829 38890832
38130844 37620889 37100989

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KCYS [071917]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 071917
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
117 PM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0114 PM HAIL 3 SE SINCLAIR 41.75N 107.08W
10/07/2010 E0.25 INCH CARBON WY PUBLIC

&&

$$

DDEAL

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KGJT [071409]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 071409
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
809 AM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 11 NW CORTEZ 37.46N 108.72W
10/06/2010 E1.00 INCH MONTEZUMA CO PUBLIC

0.75 TO 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000694

$$

JAD

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KCHS [071312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 071312
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
911 AM EDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0818 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.92W
10/07/2010 AMZ330 SC OTHER FEDERAL

THE HIGH TIDE REACHED 7.36 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT
THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE GAGE ON CHARLESTON HARBOR.
SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING BEGINS AT 7 FEET MEAN LOWER
LOW WATER.

0818 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 2 NNE TYBEE ISLAND 32.03N 80.84W
10/07/2010 AMZ352 GA OTHER FEDERAL

THE HIGH TIDE REACHED 9.16 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT
THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE GAGE AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
ENTRANCE TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER. SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING BEGINS AT 9.2 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

&&

$$

JPC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071254
SWODY1
SPC AC 071253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN U.S. UPR LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT EDGES E AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ABSORBED WITHIN MEAN WSWLY FLOW IMPINGING FROM THE E
PACIFIC. NEVERTHELESS...THE LOW WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT FEATURE
OVER THE GRT BASIN/RCKYS THIS PERIOD...WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING SRN CA EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ENE ACROSS THE LWR CO VLY AND FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.

SFC RIDGING OVER THE S CNTRL U.S...IN WAKE OF DEPARTING MID/UPR
TROUGH IN THE EAST...WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE MOISTURE RETURN E OF
THE RCKYS. BUT LINGERING AXIS OF LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC SHOULD FOSTER A CONTINUED RISK FOR TSTMS OVER PARTS
OF GRT BASIN/RCKYS THIS PERIOD...BOTH BENEATH UPR LOW/TROUGH...AND
IN AREA OF WAA/FRONTAL ASCENT FARTHER E.

...ERN UT/FOUR CORNERS TO CNTRL RCKYS...
SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM/INTENSIFY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NNE
INTO WRN CO BY EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP FARTHER NNE
TOWARD S CNTRL WY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVE. OTHER STORMS MAY
FORM A BIT LATER OVER CNTRL/ERN UT...CLOSER TO MAIN UPR TROUGH.
THESE...TOO...SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP NNEWD.

LOW-LVL FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPR LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
E ACROSS ERN UT/FAR WRN CO TODAY...WITH SFC HEATING REMOVING CINH.
WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...WITH PW
AROUND A HALF INCH AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO
LOW-50S F...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD AFTN POCKETS OF SBCAPE
UP TO 500 J/KG BY 21-00Z. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SLOW EWD
ADVANCE OF MAIN UPR SYSTEM...EXPECT 40-50 KT DEEP SSWLY OVER THE
REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG
WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL...DESPITE MARGINAL BUOYANCY. STORMS MAY
STRENGTHEN AND/OR REDEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NE AZ/NW NM/SW CO THIS EVE/EARLY FRI AS
AFOREMENTIONED CA SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION...
ENHANCING BOTH ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/07/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070856
SWOD48
SPC AC 070855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
DAY 3 /SAT/ MID MO VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW/TROUGH...AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS E/SEWD REACHING AREAS ALONG AND E OF THE MS VALLEY ON
DAY 6 /TUE/. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NW/WRN CANADA ON DAY 4 /SUN/ WILL AMPLIFY ESEWD EVOLVING INTO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY DAY 8 /THU/...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM E OF THE ROCKIES FROM DAY 6 TO DAY 8.

SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD THROUGH
TX/OK...AND TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING DAYS 4/5 /SUN AND
MON/...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK/TX ON DAY 5. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AREA ON DAY 5...AND THE REST OF THIS OUTLOOK.

..PETERS.. 10/07/2010

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KGJT [070839]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 070839
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
239 AM MDT THU OCT 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0613 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E RIFLE 39.55N 107.72W
10/06/2010 M64 MPH GARFIELD CO ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000693

$$

MALEKSA

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 070723
SWODY3
SPC AC 070721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
AT 12Z SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER WRN PARTS OF
NEB/SD WITHIN AN ATTENDANT NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY EWD ON SATURDAY AS IT TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE
TILT...WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MO VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z NAM/GFS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES DETACHED COMPLETELY FROM THE NRN
STREAM AND SHIFTS SLOWLY SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT
SLOWLY E/SEWD TOWARD SERN SD/SWRN MN SATURDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY AND ALSO INTO ERN
KS...WHILE THE SRN EXTENT SHIFTS SWD AND STALLS FROM NRN OK TO THE
TX PANHANDLE.

ASIDE FROM AN EARLY PERIOD THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS...THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT JUXTAPOSED WITH GREATER INSTABILITY E OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND ACROSS NRN MN IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT ON DAY 3.

..PETERS.. 10/07/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 070540
SWODY2
SPC AC 070539

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONGER BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
AMPLIFIED AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE LARGE WRN U.S. CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BECOME
PROGRESSIVE TRACKING NEWD DURING DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TIED
MORE TO THE SRN BRANCH ON FRIDAY...MOVING EWD AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD
ACROSS INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS SSWWD TO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 09/00Z. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT OVER THE
DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THIS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE TRAILING FRONT SPREADS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXISTENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE WRN GULF COAST
STATES...THE NWD RETURN OF SUBSTANTIAL GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY
OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD NNEWD INVOF A RETREATING WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN. GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A RIDGE SHIFTING EWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A STRONG EML/CAP...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
TEND TO LAG THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. AN
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO INTO WRN
KS FOR SOME SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE LACK OF GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING DESTABILIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB
INVOF AND WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED AND SUPPORTED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM
AIR ADVECTION PER A STRENGTHENING ENELY LLJ AND BENEATH MID-UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. MARGINAL INSTABILITY... STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
MAINLY HAIL...POTENTIALLY APPROACHING AND/OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING
SEVERE VALUES. THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE...AND THUS HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS.. 10/07/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070539
SWODY1
SPC AC 070538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST TO LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH
PERIOD ACROSS CONUS. CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING WILL SHIFT EWD AS LARGE
CYCLONIC GYRE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
CENTRAL CA -- SHRINKS/WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AND BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD
ACROSS GREAT BASIN REGION. STILL...THIS PERTURBATION IS FCST TO BE
PART OF SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN ROCKIES SWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN AZ AT END OF PERIOD...WITH CLOSED OR NEARLY-CLOSED LOW
OVER SERN ID. SFC RIDGING ACROSS GULF COAST STATES...IN WAKE OF
PERSISTENT MID-UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS ERN CONUS DURING PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL KEEP APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN FROM OCCURRING E OF
ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM PAC WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WRN CONUS...BOTH IN
COLD-CORE REGION BENEATH EJECTING MID-UPPER CYCLONE AND IN
WAA/FRONTAL REGIMES TO ITS E.

...4-CORNERS REGION TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM 4-CORNERS AREA NNEWD ACROSS
W-CENTRAL CO DURING AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL
AND GUSTS...BEFORE MOVING NEWD TOWARD S-CENTRAL WY AND WEAKENING
DURING EVENING.

LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION
DURING AFTERNOON...WHILE SFC HEATING REMOVES CAPPING ACROSS
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AREAS. RESULTING LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE -- I.E. ELEVATION-VARIABLE SFC DEW POINTS 30S TO
LOW-50S F -- TO YIELD MLCAPES GENERALLY 250-500 J/KG BY 21-00Z TIME
FRAME...IF NOT SLIGHTLY SOONER. MODIFIED WRF AND ETA-KF SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 40-50 KT 500 MB FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED SVR...GIVEN MRGL
BUOYANCY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-50 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
DESPITE SOME VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER CO...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS GENERALLY SHOULD BE NEARLY STRAIGHT
IN SHAPE.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 10/07/2010

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KFGZ [070506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KFGZ 070506
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
959 PM MST WED OCT 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 NE CLINTS WELL 34.61N 111.25W
10/06/2010 COCONINO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN...HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN MILE MARKER 296 AND
298... POSSIBLE TORNADO

0430 AM HAIL CORNVILLE 34.72N 111.91W
10/06/2010 E1.75 INCH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL RANGING FROM QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE

0440 AM HAIL CORNVILLE 34.72N 111.91W
10/06/2010 E1.00 INCH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0445 AM HAIL CORNVILLE 34.72N 111.91W
10/06/2010 E1.00 INCH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0515 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 N BELLEMONT 35.24N 111.82W
10/06/2010 COCONINO AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

SIDING BLOWN OFF HOUSES INTO CARS. AT LEAST 2 TREES
DOWN

0515 AM TORNADO BELLEMONT 35.23N 111.82W
10/06/2010 COCONINO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

CAMP NAVAJO POST IN BELLEMONT DAMAGE FROM TWO TORNADIC
STORMS....50 TO 100 POWER POLES SNAPPED OFF...DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...NUMEROUS RVS AT THE CAMP NAVAJO STORAGE
FACILITY.

0520 AM TORNADO 2 NE BELLEMONT 35.25N 111.79W
10/06/2010 COCONINO AZ PARK SERVICE

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN SOUTHWEST OF WING MOUNTAIN.

0520 AM TORNADO BELLEMONT 35.23N 111.82W
10/06/2010 COCONINO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 7 INJ *** 14 HOMES DAMAGED

0622 AM TORNADO BELLEMONT 35.23N 111.82W
10/06/2010 COCONINO AZ NWS OFFICE

0635 AM TORNADO BELLEMONT 35.23N 111.82W
10/06/2010 COCONINO AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES...ROOFS AND FENCES FROM CONFIRMED
TORNADO. TRAIN DERAILED...21 RAILCARS THROWN OFF
TRACKS...AND TRUCKS OVERTURNED ON HIGHWAY.

0650 AM TSTM WND DMG 13 NW FLAGSTAFF 35.32N 111.78W
10/06/2010 COCONINO AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

TREES ACROSS HIGHWAY 180 AT MM 230.

0850 AM HAIL PARKS 35.26N 111.95W
10/06/2010 E1.75 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0905 AM HAIL 1 S COTTONWOOD 34.72N 112.02W
10/06/2010 M1.00 INCH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 AM HAIL CORNVILLE 34.72N 111.91W
10/06/2010 M2.00 INCH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCH HAIL REPORTED... MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES

1100 AM HAIL 3 W SEDONA 34.86N 111.85W
10/06/2010 M0.88 INCH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN WEST SEDONA

1130 AM HAIL KACHINA VILLAGE 35.10N 111.69W
10/06/2010 E1.00 INCH COCONINO AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

1130 AM HAIL MUNDS PARK 34.94N 111.64W
10/06/2010 M1.00 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE INCH HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

1130 AM HAIL RIMROCK 34.65N 111.75W
10/06/2010 M1.25 INCH YAVAPAI AZ PARK SERVICE

TRAIL CLOSED DUE TO HAIL

1142 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 N CORDES JUCNTION 34.40N 112.12W
10/06/2010 YAVAPAI AZ PUBLIC

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED BY MOTORIST ON I-17

1205 PM TORNADO 2 S MUNDS PARK 34.91N 111.64W
10/06/2010 COCONINO AZ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1214 PM HAIL 5 N MUNDS PARK 35.01N 111.64W
10/06/2010 M1.00 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ACCOMPANIED WITH HEAVY RAIN

1220 PM TORNADO FLAGSTAFF 35.19N 111.62W
10/06/2010 COCONINO AZ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTH OF COUNTRY CLUB SUBDIVISIONS.

1235 PM HAIL LAKE MONTEZUMA 34.64N 111.80W
10/06/2010 E0.88 INCH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL HAD MELTED SO SIZE ESTIMATE COULD BE LOW.

0230 PM HAIL TEEC NOS POS 36.93N 109.08W
10/06/2010 E1.75 INCH APACHE AZ NWS OFFICE

SEVERAL WINDSHIELDS KNOCKED OUT IN MONUMENT VALLEY ON
HIGHWAY 160.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000199 FGZ1000201 FGZ1000200 FGZ1000206 FGZ1000202
FGZ1000209 FGZ1000205 FGZ1000210 FGZ1000203 FGZ1000204 FGZ1000207
FGZ1000208 FGZ1000211 FGZ1000218 FGZ1000220 FGZ1000212 FGZ1000214
FGZ1000215 FGZ1000213 FGZ1000216 FGZ1000217 FGZ1000219 FGZ1000221
FGZ1000222

$$

JJ

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