DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070539
SWODY1
SPC AC 070538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST TO LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH
PERIOD ACROSS CONUS. CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING WILL SHIFT EWD AS LARGE
CYCLONIC GYRE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
CENTRAL CA -- SHRINKS/WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AND BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD
ACROSS GREAT BASIN REGION. STILL...THIS PERTURBATION IS FCST TO BE
PART OF SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN ROCKIES SWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN AZ AT END OF PERIOD...WITH CLOSED OR NEARLY-CLOSED LOW
OVER SERN ID. SFC RIDGING ACROSS GULF COAST STATES...IN WAKE OF
PERSISTENT MID-UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS ERN CONUS DURING PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL KEEP APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN FROM OCCURRING E OF
ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM PAC WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WRN CONUS...BOTH IN
COLD-CORE REGION BENEATH EJECTING MID-UPPER CYCLONE AND IN
WAA/FRONTAL REGIMES TO ITS E.

...4-CORNERS REGION TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM 4-CORNERS AREA NNEWD ACROSS
W-CENTRAL CO DURING AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL
AND GUSTS...BEFORE MOVING NEWD TOWARD S-CENTRAL WY AND WEAKENING
DURING EVENING.

LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION
DURING AFTERNOON...WHILE SFC HEATING REMOVES CAPPING ACROSS
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AREAS. RESULTING LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE -- I.E. ELEVATION-VARIABLE SFC DEW POINTS 30S TO
LOW-50S F -- TO YIELD MLCAPES GENERALLY 250-500 J/KG BY 21-00Z TIME
FRAME...IF NOT SLIGHTLY SOONER. MODIFIED WRF AND ETA-KF SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 40-50 KT 500 MB FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED SVR...GIVEN MRGL
BUOYANCY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-50 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
DESPITE SOME VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER CO...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS GENERALLY SHOULD BE NEARLY STRAIGHT
IN SHAPE.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 10/07/2010

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