DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 191726
SWODY2
SPC AC 191725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX/OK EWD ACROSS
AR/LA/MS AND INTO WRN AL/TN...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEB/KS SWD INTO CENTRAL TX AT DAYBREAK IS
FORECAST TO EJECT SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED ACROSS THE LOWER/MS
VALLEY...AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
WRN STATES. MODELS ONLY SUGGEST A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...WITH A MINOR SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN
WRN MO AND TRAILING SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO NRN TX.
ALSO...WHILE THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT MAY BE IN MO...MORNING
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A SUBTLE WARM FRONT FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION SEWD INTO SRN AL DURING THE DAY THU.

...ERN TX/OK EWD ACROSS AR/LA/MS AND INTO WRN TN/AL...
SEVERE EVOLUTION ON THU WILL BE COMPLICATED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z FROM MO/AR SWWD INTO SERN
OK/NRN TX. ALTHOUGH THE UPDRAFTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY DECOUPLED FROM
BOUNDARY LAYER...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THESE
STORMS TO BE SEVERE ACROSS AR...WRN TN...SERN OK AND NRN TX DURING
THE MORNING. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE AS CONGEALED
DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE CONSOLIDATED STORMS INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S.
HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES/MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AND SEVERE HAIL THREAT.

NAM/GFS SHOW DIFFERENT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE PCPN ON THU. NAM HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN MORNING STORMS BEING MAINTAINED AND INTENSIFYING
AS A FORWARD PROPAGATING QLCS FROM THE ARKLATEX ESEWD ALONG BOUNDARY
INTO MS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION APPEARS MOST REASONABLE
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING SPREADING EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND FORECAST LINE MOTION AT 40-50 KT
WOULD BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS...SOME WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT. ADDITIONALLY... THE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
TORNADOES WITHIN EMBEDDED BOWS. IF THIS SCENARIO APPEARS
LIKELY...PORTIONS OF AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK ON
UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

FURTHER WEST ACROSS ERN OK AND NRN TX...AFTER MORNING CONVECTION
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...PARTY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. THESE READINGS PLUS
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MCS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COMBINED WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED INTENSE SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE DEGREE OF
SHEAR AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT SUPPORT A TORNADO OR
TWO...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS FROM THE SURFACE-700 MB SUGGEST THAT
VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS.

..IMY.. 05/19/2010

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KAMA [191718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KAMA 191718
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 PM TORNADO 8 ESE HARTLEY 35.84N 102.27W
05/18/2010 HARTLEY TX STORM CHASER

VORTEX2 REPORT

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000470

$$

SD

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KGLD [191711]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 191711
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1111 AM MDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0654 PM TORNADO 17 SSW BETHUNE 39.08N 102.54W
05/18/2010 KIT CARSON CO PUBLIC

TORNADO LASTED ABOUT THREE MINUTES IN OPEN FIELD.
PHOTOGRAPHED BY GENERAL PUBLIC.

&&

$$

MENTZER

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KAMA [191710]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KAMA 191710
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1209 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 PM TORNADO 5 SSE HARTLEY 35.82N 102.36W
05/18/2010 HARTLEY TX NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWN SEVERAL MILES NNW OF CHANNING.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...LOCATION...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000421

$$

SD

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KDDC [191655]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 191655
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1155 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 AM HEAVY RAIN 13 N KENDALL 38.13N 101.58W
05/19/2010 M3.60 INCH HAMILTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MRUSSELL

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KGLD [191653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 191653
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 S TRIBUNE 38.41N 101.75W
05/19/2010 M3.00 INCH GREELEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

OVERNIGHT TOTAL ENDING AT 6 AM MDT.

&&

$$

JMARTIN

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

063
WOUS40 KWNS 191635
PWOSPC
OKZ000-200200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

PARTS OF OKLAHOMA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE OZARKS REGION OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. IN THE STORMS WAKE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE A DRYLINE SHARPENS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

STRONG HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BY MID-AFTERNOON.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW OF THE TORNADOES MAY BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR/JUST WEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BY
MID-EVENING WITH CONTINUED THREATS FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..RACY.. 05/19/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191631
SWODY1
SPC AC 191630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
OVER A LARGE PART OF OK AND N TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM SW KS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...

...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTM OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR A LARGE PART OF OK AND ADJACENT N TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
NE CO UPR LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z THU AS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING SSW INTO NM SWEEPS E INTO
CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX. BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC WSW FLOW ON
S SIDE OF LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLNS...ATOP MODERATE SSWLY
LLJ. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SE FROM TX PANHANDLE SFC
LOW SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH MOVEMENT OFFSET
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. S OF THE FRONT AND E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
OVER THE ERN PANHANDLE...LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NWD WITH LLJ.

...SRN PLNS/ARKLATEX THROUGH EARLY WED...
OVERNIGHT OK MCS SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS CONTINUES GENERALLY ESE
INTO NW AR EARLY THIS AFTN. ELEVATED STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL...LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ATOP W/E
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE MCS.

BY MID TO LATE AFTN...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...CONTINUED LOW LVL
MOISTURE INFLOW...AND LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH NM UPR TROUGH
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW SFC-BASED STORMS NEAR INTERSECTION OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH EWD-MOVING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER WRN OK. A
BIT LATER...SCTD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXTEND SWD ON THE TROUGH/DRY
LINE INTO NW TX...AND EWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK.

THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR AND SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE SETUP APPEARS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING INTENSE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL. GIVEN SIZABLE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR FRONT...A
COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR.

WITH THE LLJ LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES
AND THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF NM TROUGH...EXPECT THE OK/N TX
STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS EARLY TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT HI LVL FLOW...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ESE
INTO AR BY EARLY WED...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND/HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

...ARKLATEX TO CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN...
SFC HEATING ALONG/S AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM
SRN PLNS LOW MAY SUPPORT SCTD DIURNAL STORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX SE TO
THE CNTRL GULF CST TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON
HEATING AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BECOMING LOCALLY SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME WEAK CIN OVER REGION. AMPLE INSTABILITY/ PW WILL BE
PRESENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/ PERSISTENCE.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 05/19/2010

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KDDC [191602]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 191602
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1102 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 AM HAIL 7 NNW COPELAND 37.63N 100.69W
05/19/2010 E0.88 INCH HASKELL KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

MRUSSELL

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 189

WWUS20 KWNS 191503
SEL9
SPC WW 191503
OKZ000-TXZ000-191500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 189 ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

OKLAHOMA
TEXAS

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KAMA [191458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 191458
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
958 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 PM HAIL 2 NNE CANADIAN 35.94N 100.37W
05/18/2010 E1.75 INCH HEMPHILL TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000477

$$

JACKSON

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KJAN [191450]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 191450
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
950 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM TSTM WND GST 4 ENE LAUREL 31.72N 89.08W
05/18/2010 E50.00 MPH JONES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

1 TREE DOWN AND PEA SIZED HAIL.

0255 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 ENE LAUREL 31.73N 89.03W
05/18/2010 JONES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE TREE ON MOBILE HOME WITH MINOR DAMAGE...ROOF
PARTIALLY REMOVED FROM AN OUTBUILDING...NUMEROUS TREES
AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN. REPORTED BY JONES COUNTY EM

0732 PM HAIL 4 WSW MONTEREY 31.43N 91.79W
05/18/2010 E1.00 INCH CONCORDIA LA PUBLIC

&&

$$

CME

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KJAN [191450]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 191450
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
949 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0242 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSW MAGEE 31.86N 89.74W
05/15/2010 SIMPSON MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A CHICKEN HOUSE WAS DAMAGED ON NUB MCNAIR RD JUST SSW OF
MAGEE.

&&

$$

CME

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KJAN [191448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KJAN 191448
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG MAGEE 31.87N 89.73W
05/15/2010 SIMPSON MS BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE LIMBS DOWN AND A COUPLE OF TREES ALONG WITH SOME
POWER OUTAGES IN MAGEE. REPORTED BY MEDIA AND EM.

&&

$$

CME

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KDDC [191446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 191446
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
945 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 AM HAIL 6 S MEADE 37.20N 100.34W
05/19/2010 E1.75 INCH MEADE KS PUBLIC

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL DAMAGED HOUSE SIDING AND BROKE
WINDOWS.

&&

$$

UMSCHEID

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KHGX [191444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 191444
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
943 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM LIGHTNING 3 SW BRENHAM 30.13N 96.43W
05/17/2010 WASHINGTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

LIGHTNING STRUCK OIL TANK AND SET ABLAZE ON TIGERPOINT
ROAD.

&&

$$

KP

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KAMA [191427]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 191427
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
927 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HAIL 11 NW MORSE 36.15N 101.63W
05/18/2010 E1.00 INCH SHERMAN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000476

$$

JACKSON

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KJAN [191425]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 191425
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
925 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0732 PM HAIL 4 WSW MONTEREY 31.43N 91.79W
05/18/2010 E1.00 INCH CONCORDIA LA PUBLIC

&&

$$

CME

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KDDC [191421]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 191421
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
921 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HEAVY RAIN SUN CITY 37.38N 98.92W
05/19/2010 M1.00 INCH BARBER KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

MRUSSELL

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KDDC [191419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 191419
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
919 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0918 AM HEAVY RAIN KISMET 37.21N 100.70W
05/19/2010 M2.34 INCH SEWARD KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

MRUSSELL

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KDDC [191411]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 191411
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
911 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 WNW HARDTNER 37.06N 98.78W
05/19/2010 M2.40 INCH BARBER KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

MRUSSELL

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KDDC [191410]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 191410
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
909 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 PM HAIL 10 SSE JOHNSON CITY 37.44N 101.68W
05/18/2010 E1.00 INCH STANTON KS PUBLIC

1220 AM HAIL 7 SSE MEADE 37.19N 100.29W
05/19/2010 E1.00 INCH MEADE KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

UMSCHEID

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KTFX [191352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 191352
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
752 AM MDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0408 PM HAIL COFFEE CREEK 47.35N 110.08W
05/18/2010 E0.25 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0452 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N CLANCY 46.49N 111.99W
05/18/2010 M0.17 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES.

0544 PM HEAVY RAIN MONTANA CITY 46.54N 111.93W
05/18/2010 M0.58 INCH JEFFERSON MT CO-OP OBSERVER

LATE AFTERNOON OCCURRANCE

&&

$$

CZELZER

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KGLD [191349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 191349
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
748 AM MDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 AM HEAVY RAIN 13 NW LEOTI 38.62N 101.53W
05/19/2010 M2.22 INCH WICHITA KS TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN OCCURRED LAST NIGHT

0745 AM HEAVY RAIN LYDIA 38.28N 101.29W
05/19/2010 M3.45 INCH WICHITA KS TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. DITCHES RUNNING FULL. LOT
OF STANDING WATER IN THE FIELDS.

&&

$$

MBULLER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191231
SWODY1
SPC AC 191230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF OKLAHOMA
AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO
NORTHERN TEXAS...PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA......

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK IS STILL EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT FOR A LARGE PART OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NERN CO THIS MORNING AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
BAND OF STRONG MID AND UPPER WINDS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS TODAY. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT SRN PLAINS
CONTINUED TO FEED A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD IN ADVANCE
OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW VICINITY OK PANHANDLE.

...SRN PLAINS...
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED INTO AN MCS THIS MORNING
MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN OK. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPING DRY LINE WRN OK INTO NWRN TX WILL LIKELY BECOME FOCUS FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS OK RISING THRU THE 60S COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL LEAD TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG TO THE S AND E OF BOUNDARIES.

WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOWS SOME WEAKENING AND VEERING DURING THE
DAY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

INITIATION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COMBINATION E/W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN OK AND THEN
SWD THRU WRN OK INTO NWRN TX VICINITY DRY LINE.

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE OUTBREAK WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES. FURTHER S INTO NWRN TX THE CAP WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
BUT WITH SUCH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE NO LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT
AS THOSE IN OK.

STORMS WILL EVOLVE UPSCALE BY EVENING INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE/PROPAGATE EWD
TOWARD WRN AR.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 05/19/2010

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KOUN [191200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 191200
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 AM TSTM WND GST PERRY 36.29N 97.29W
05/19/2010 E70 MPH NOBLE OK TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 69 TO 70 MPH GUSTS

&&

$$

DEW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0621

ACUS11 KWNS 191032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191032
OKZ000-191130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 189...

VALID 191032Z - 191130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 189
CONTINUES.

WELL ORGANIZED MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER NRN OK WITH AN MCV NOW EVIDENT
ALONG THE WOODS/ALFALFA COUNTY LINE. ATTENDANT BOWING TYPE SQUALL
LINE IS BEGINNING TO SURGE EWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT WITH THE APEX NOW
INTO WRN GARFIELD COUNTY. MESONET DATA INDICATES WIND SPEEDS ARE
GUSTING ABOVE 50 MPH WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND NEAR-SEVERE GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS SQUALL LINE MATURES. GIVEN CURRENT
SPEED/MOVEMENT...MCS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW INTO
NERN OK OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.

..DARROW.. 05/19/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 36969857 36929604 35849609 36009977 36969857

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KAMA [191008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 191008
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
508 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM HAIL 2 SW HARTLEY 35.87N 102.42W
05/18/2010 E1.00 INCH HARTLEY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0513 PM HAIL HARTLEY 35.89N 102.40W
05/18/2010 E0.88 INCH HARTLEY TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0522 PM HAIL 3 W HARTLEY 35.89N 102.45W
05/18/2010 E1.00 INCH HARTLEY TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FM998 AND CO RD. O

0523 PM HAIL 3 E HARTLEY 35.89N 102.34W
05/18/2010 M1.75 INCH HARTLEY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTR TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL FALLING.

0536 PM TORNADO 11 N CHANNING 35.84N 102.33W
05/18/2010 HARTLEY TX NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE SAW A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN
NEAR CHANNING.

0538 PM HAIL 4 SE HARTLEY 35.84N 102.35W
05/18/2010 M2.75 INCH HARTLEY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0540 PM HAIL 4 ESE HARTLEY 35.87N 102.33W
05/18/2010 M2.50 INCH HARTLEY TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0541 PM HAIL 3 SE HARTLEY 35.85N 102.36W
05/18/2010 E2.75 INCH HARTLEY TX AMATEUR RADIO

0541 PM TORNADO 6 SSE HARTLEY 35.81N 102.36W
05/18/2010 HARTLEY TX STORM CHASER

0544 PM TORNADO 7 SSE HARTLEY 35.79N 102.35W
05/18/2010 HARTLEY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0554 PM HAIL 7 E HARTLEY 35.89N 102.27W
05/18/2010 M1.75 INCH HARTLEY TX EMERGENCY MNGR

0606 PM HAIL 10 W DUMAS 35.86N 102.14W
05/18/2010 M2.50 INCH MOORE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0616 PM HAIL 3 NW DUMAS 35.89N 102.00W
05/18/2010 E1.75 INCH MOORE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0627 PM HAIL 2 NW DUMAS 35.88N 101.99W
05/18/2010 E2.75 INCH MOORE TX PUBLIC

0628 PM TORNADO DUMAS 35.86N 101.97W
05/18/2010 MOORE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0628 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W DUMAS 35.86N 102.01W
05/18/2010 M67 MPH MOORE TX AWOS

0631 PM HAIL 1 N DUMAS 35.88N 101.97W
05/18/2010 E1.50 INCH MOORE TX PUBLIC

0634 PM HAIL 1 NE DUMAS 35.87N 101.95W
05/18/2010 E1.75 INCH MOORE TX PUBLIC

0634 PM HAIL DUMAS 35.86N 101.97W
05/18/2010 E2.00 INCH MOORE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

VORTEX 2 REPORT.

0636 PM HAIL 1 W DUMAS 35.86N 101.98W
05/18/2010 E1.75 INCH MOORE TX PUBLIC

0638 PM HAIL 1 NE DUMAS 35.87N 101.95W
05/18/2010 E1.50 INCH MOORE TX PUBLIC

0642 PM TORNADO 2 E DUMAS 35.86N 101.93W
05/18/2010 MOORE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0659 PM HAIL 3 NE DUMAS 35.89N 101.93W
05/18/2010 E1.25 INCH MOORE TX PUBLIC

0708 PM HAIL 15 E DUMAS 35.86N 101.70W
05/18/2010 M2.00 INCH MOORE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0718 PM HAIL 11 NW STINNETT 35.93N 101.58W
05/18/2010 M2.75 INCH HUTCHINSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 PM HAIL 11 W STINNETT 35.82N 101.64W
05/18/2010 E1.00 INCH MOORE TX PUBLIC

0730 PM HAIL 19 E DUMAS 35.86N 101.63W
05/18/2010 M1.00 INCH MOORE TX AMATEUR RADIO

0733 PM HAIL 4 W PRINGLE 35.95N 101.53W
05/18/2010 E0.88 INCH HUTCHINSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0737 PM HAIL 9 NW STINNETT 35.91N 101.56W
05/18/2010 M1.75 INCH HUTCHINSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0741 PM HAIL 5 N STINNETT 35.89N 101.44W
05/18/2010 M0.88 INCH HUTCHINSON TX AMATEUR RADIO

0744 PM TORNADO 7 NW STINNETT 35.89N 101.53W
05/18/2010 HUTCHINSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0744 PM TORNADO 15 NW GUYMON 36.84N 101.67W
05/18/2010 TEXAS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

2 BRIEF TOUCHDOWNS.

0756 PM HAIL 8 N STINNETT 35.94N 101.44W
05/18/2010 M2.75 INCH HUTCHINSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0800 PM HAIL 9 N STINNETT 35.95N 101.44W
05/18/2010 E2.00 INCH HUTCHINSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0803 PM HAIL 5 N STINNETT 35.89N 101.44W
05/18/2010 E1.75 INCH HUTCHINSON TX PUBLIC

HAIL IS 6 INCHES DEEP.

0805 PM HAIL 6 N STINNETT 35.91N 101.44W
05/18/2010 E2.75 INCH HUTCHINSON TX PUBLIC

ALL WINDOWS IN HOUSE BROKEN. WINDOWS ON VEHICLES
BROKEN.

0808 PM HAIL 28 W DALHART 36.06N 103.02W
05/18/2010 E1.00 INCH DALLAM TX PUBLIC

0812 PM HAIL 3 W PRINGLE 35.95N 101.51W
05/18/2010 E1.00 INCH HUTCHINSON TX PUBLIC

0835 PM HAIL 3 NW WARE 36.22N 102.75W
05/18/2010 E1.75 INCH DALLAM TX TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

0835 PM HAIL 9 NNE STINNETT 35.94N 101.38W
05/18/2010 E1.75 INCH HUTCHINSON TX PUBLIC

LARGE WHEAT CROP BEATEN DOWN.

0840 PM HAIL 12 NW DALHART 36.18N 102.67W
05/18/2010 E1.75 INCH DALLAM TX PUBLIC

0842 PM HAIL 20 SW GRUVER 36.05N 101.66W
05/18/2010 E0.75 INCH SHERMAN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0847 PM HAIL WARE 36.18N 102.71W
05/18/2010 M1.00 INCH DALLAM TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0852 PM TORNADO 5 NE WARE 36.24N 102.65W
05/18/2010 DALLAM TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0930 PM TORNADO 12 NE DALHART 36.18N 102.36W
05/18/2010 DALLAM TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0931 PM HAIL 19 NW MIAMI 35.89N 100.88W
05/18/2010 E1.75 INCH ROBERTS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

VORTEX2 PROBE

0937 PM TORNADO 2 SW CONLEN 36.21N 102.26W
05/18/2010 DALLAM TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0938 PM TORNADO 3 W STRATFORD 36.34N 102.13W
05/18/2010 SHERMAN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0938 PM TORNADO 3 WSW CONLEN 36.22N 102.29W
05/18/2010 DALLAM TX STORM CHASER

0952 PM TSTM WND GST 26 NW MIAMI 35.96N 100.97W
05/18/2010 M69 MPH ROBERTS TX AWOS

1012 PM TSTM WND GST 19 NW MIAMI 35.89N 100.88W
05/18/2010 M70 MPH ROBERTS TX STORM CHASER

1047 PM HAIL 1 N STRATFORD 36.35N 102.07W
05/18/2010 E1.50 INCH SHERMAN TX PUBLIC

1053 PM HAIL CANADIAN 35.91N 100.38W
05/18/2010 E1.25 INCH HEMPHILL TX AMATEUR RADIO

1102 PM HAIL CANADIAN 35.91N 100.38W
05/18/2010 E2.00 INCH HEMPHILL TX AMATEUR RADIO

1111 PM HAIL 1 E CANADIAN 35.91N 100.37W
05/18/2010 M2.00 INCH HEMPHILL TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0110 AM HAIL DUMAS 35.86N 101.97W
05/19/2010 E1.25 INCH MOORE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0113 AM HAIL DUMAS 35.86N 101.97W
05/19/2010 E1.75 INCH MOORE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0116 AM HAIL 1 N DUMAS 35.88N 101.97W
05/19/2010 E1.50 INCH MOORE TX STORM CHASER

RELAYED THROUGH SPOTTER NETWORK

0326 AM HAIL 1 S HIGGINS 36.11N 100.03W
05/19/2010 E1.00 INCH LIPSCOMB TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 AM HAIL WOLF CREEK PARK 36.21N 100.65W
05/19/2010 E0.75 INCH OCHILTREE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000416 AMA1000417 AMA1000418 AMA1000419 AMA1000421
AMA1000421 AMA1000423 AMA1000422 AMA1000470 AMA1000425 AMA1000424
AMA1000426 AMA1000427 AMA1000428 AMA1000429 AMA1000432 AMA1000430
AMA1000431 AMA1000435 AMA1000433 AMA1000434 AMA1000436 AMA1000437
AMA1000439 AMA1000438 AMA1000440 AMA1000441 AMA1000442 AMA1000444
AMA1000443 AMA1000445 AMA1000449 AMA1000446 AMA1000447 AMA1000448
AMA1000450 AMA1000452 AMA1000451 AMA1000453 AMA1000454 AMA1000457
AMA1000455 AMA1000456 AMA1000458 AMA1000459 AMA1000460 AMA1000463
AMA1000461 AMA1000464 AMA1000462 AMA1000465 AMA1000466 AMA1000467
AMA1000468 AMA1000469 AMA1000471 AMA1000472 AMA1000473 AMA1000474
AMA1000475

$$

SFJ

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KDDC [191008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDDC 191008
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1034 PM HAIL 7 NE WOODS 37.25N 101.01W
05/18/2010 E1.75 INCH SEWARD KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1050 PM HAIL 6 ENE WOODS 37.21N 101.01W
05/18/2010 E1.75 INCH SEWARD KS STORM CHASER

1135 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW HOWELL 37.74N 100.20W
05/18/2010 FORD KS TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND BLEW OFF A STORM WINDOW.

1143 PM HAIL KISMET 37.21N 100.70W
05/18/2010 E1.00 INCH SEWARD KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1234 AM HAIL 9 E MEADE STATE PARK 37.17N 100.25W
05/19/2010 M2.00 INCH MEADE KS STORM CHASER

0108 AM HAIL 6 W ACRES 37.10N 99.98W
05/19/2010 E0.75 INCH CLARK KS EMERGENCY MNGR

0111 AM HAIL 6 WNW ACRES 37.15N 99.98W
05/19/2010 E1.00 INCH CLARK KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0120 AM HAIL 9 NW ACRES 37.20N 99.98W
05/19/2010 E1.00 INCH CLARK KS EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

GERARD

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

852
WOUS40 KWNS 190953
PWOSPC
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-191800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PRIMARILY OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER
PRIMARILY OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
SMALL PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS TRANSPORTED A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS NORTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM NEW MEXICO. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE INCREASING WIND
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL INCLUDE A THREAT OF NOT ONLY TORNADOES BUT
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT TORNADOES COULD BECOME STRONG AND THE
HAIL VERY LARGE WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IN ADDITION DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS AND THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME
HOURS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..HALES.. 05/19/2010

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 189

WWUS20 KWNS 190842
SEL9
SPC WW 190842
OKZ000-TXZ000-191500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 345 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF
GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 188. WATCH NUMBER 188 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 345 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS NRN TX PANHANDLE
INTO NWRN OK. WHILE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED...LARGE HAIL
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES BOTH
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.

...HALES

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 190830
SWOD48
SPC AC 190829

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN
U.S. ON SATURDAY/DAY 4. A BROAD WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES NNEWD ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE DAKOTAS. THE
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUNDAY...AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND DEEPENING THE
WRN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MOVE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY/DAY 6. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE TO CORRECT. FOR TUESDAY/DAY
7 AND WEDNESDAY/DAY 8...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN A BROAD
AREA OF INSTABILITY IN THE CNTRL STATES BUT KEEP THE STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY AND MONDAY HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NRN
PLAINS...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW FOR SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE.

..BROYLES.. 05/19/2010

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KAMA [190827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 190827
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
327 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0326 AM HAIL 1 S HIGGINS 36.11N 100.03W
05/19/2010 E1.00 INCH LIPSCOMB TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000474

$$

SFJ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0620

ACUS11 KWNS 190824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190823
OKZ000-TXZ000-190930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX PANHANDLE...NRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 188...

VALID 190823Z - 190930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 188 CONTINUES.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF NRN OK
AND PERHAPS PARTS OF THE NERN TX PANHANDLE...

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER MERGERS OVER NWRN OK. A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIP SHIELD IS NOW TAKING ON A MORE IMPRESSIVE MCS STRUCTURE THAT
IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED...THOUGH NOT A PARTICULARLY FAST
MOVING SYSTEM. ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM A FEW
SEVERE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME
IT APPEARS THE TORNADO THREAT IS DECREASING AND THE MAIN FOCUS WILL
BECOME HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS STRONG WINDS IF A
BOW-TYPE FEATURE CAN EMERGE. FOR THIS REASON A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK.

..DARROW.. 05/19/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 36730049 36849603 35599627 35620086 36730049

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KOUN [190816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 190816
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 AM HAIL TALOGA 36.04N 98.96W
05/19/2010 E1.75 INCH DEWEY OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

DEWEY COUNTY SHERIFF DEPT.

&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [190814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 190814
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
314 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0257 AM HAIL 6 SW TALOGA 35.98N 99.04W
05/19/2010 E1.00 INCH DEWEY OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

DEWEY COUNTY SHERIFF DEPT.

0308 AM HAIL 3 S TALOGA 36.00N 98.96W
05/19/2010 E1.00 INCH DEWEY OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

DEWEY COUNTY SHERIFF DEPT.

&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [190730]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 190730
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
230 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0224 AM HAIL 1 S CAMARGO 36.00N 99.29W
05/19/2010 E1.50 INCH DEWEY OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

RELAYED BY DEWEY COUNTY SHERIFF DEPT. REPORTED BY CAMARGO
SPOTTER.

&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [190724]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 190724
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
223 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0217 AM HAIL LEEDEY 35.87N 99.35W
05/19/2010 E2.00 INCH DEWEY OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

RELAYED BY DEWEY COUNTY SHERIFF. REPORTED BY LEEDEY FIRE
DEPT.

&&

$$

FM

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190716
SWODY3
SPC AC 190715

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...MID-MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
FRIDAY WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE TROUGH FROM NRN MS NWD ACROSS WRN TN INTO WRN KY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH COULD END UP BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN
STATES ON FRIDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUST SOUTH OF THE JET AXIS...THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN
WY AND WRN NEB WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD INITIATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT 00Z SATURDAY SHOW
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGESTING A FEW CELLS COULD HAVE A HAIL THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 05/19/2010

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 187

WWUS20 KWNS 190703
SEL7
SPC WW 190703
KSZ000-190500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
203 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 187 ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS

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KOUN [190634]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 190634
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
134 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0123 AM TORNADO 16 S ARNETT 35.90N 99.77W
05/19/2010 ELLIS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

RELAYED BY WOODWARD COUNTY EM AS REPORTED BY ELLIS COUNTY
EM

&&

$$

FM

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KDDC [190633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 190633
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
133 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 AM HAIL 9 NW ACRES 37.20N 99.98W
05/19/2010 E1.00 INCH CLARK KS EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

GERARD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0619

ACUS11 KWNS 190624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190624
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-190730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 188...

VALID 190624Z - 190730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 188 CONTINUES.

SEVERAL LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS PERSIST ALONG SRN FRINGE OF LARGER MCS
FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINED IN PART DUE TO A STOUT 40KT LLJ WITHIN BROADER WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. LATEST WDSS-II MESH DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE
VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE SUPERCELL OVER ROGER MILLS COUNTY
OK...MOVING INTO SRN ELLIS COUNTY. OTHER VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY
OCCURRING OVER MOORE COUNTY IN THE TX PANHANDLE. NEEDLESS TO SAY
LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO NEAR-SFC BASED
UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 05/19/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36860303 37069866 35039867 34830300 36860303

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KDDC [190620]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 190620
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
120 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0108 AM HAIL 6 W ACRES 37.10N 99.98W
05/19/2010 E0.75 INCH CLARK KS EMERGENCY MNGR

0111 AM HAIL 6 WNW ACRES 37.15N 99.98W
05/19/2010 E1.00 INCH CLARK KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

26

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KAMA [190618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 190618
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
118 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0116 AM HAIL 1 N DUMAS 35.88N 101.97W
05/19/2010 E1.50 INCH MOORE TX STORM CHASER

RELAYED THROUGH SPOTTER NETWORK

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000473

$$

SFJ

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KAMA [190614]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 190614
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
114 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0113 AM HAIL DUMAS 35.86N 101.97W
05/19/2010 E1.75 INCH MOORE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000472

$$

SFJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 190608
SWODY1
SPC AC 190606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO
NORTHERN TEXAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...

ADDED APPROXIMATE INITIATION TIME IN 4TH PARAGRAPH.

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND
NORTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST FROM THESE AREAS...FROM ARKANSAS TO
LOUISIANA.

...SRN PLAINS INTO ARKLATEX...
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL EVOLVE ACROSS CO/WY EARLY TODAY AND
THEN DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW AS WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACT ON A
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM TX TO KS. PRECIPITATION
AND RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THE STORMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN OK
AND KS WILL ACT TO ESTABLISH A NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS OK
LATER THIS MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES OVER WRN KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON... TRIPLE
POINT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INVOF OK PANHANDLE AS
DRYLINE SHARPENS AND SPREADS EAST FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE. BELT OF
40-50KT WLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA
40KT. DIURNAL HEATING AND GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH WEAKLY
CAPPED MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J PER KG BY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN WEAK INHIBITION AND PERSISTENT MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
EXPECT WARM SECTOR STORM INITIATION BY 21Z. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE IN WRN OK...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR/ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS AND NEAR
SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM NRN/CNTRL OK TO NRN TX/AR/LA. EFFECTIVE
HELICITY IN THE RANGE OF 200-300 M2/S2...AND RELATIVELY HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER RH/LOW LFC ACROSS CNTRL OK...SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ENHANCED STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

UNLIKE MAY 10...WEAKER FLOW REGIME RESULTS IN SLOWER STORM/BUNKERS
CELL MOTION OF ENE AROUND 25 KT...AS OPPOSED TO ENE AT 50KT.
FURTHERMORE...INSTABILITY APPEARS A BIT WEAKER. NONETHELESS...A
POTENTIALLY VOLATILE STRONG TORNADO SITUATION MAY EVOLVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MOVING TOWARD
ERN OK INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS A RELATIVELY LIMITED GEOGRAPHIC
AREA OF GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL. COMBINED WITH THE POSSIBILITY
THAT FORECAST CERTAINTY CAN INCREASE WITH THE LIGHT OF DAY...GREATER
TORNADO PROBABILITIES...AND AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK...MAY OCCUR IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS A LARGER AREA FROM SRN KS EXTENDING INTO TX...AR AND LA FROM
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS CONVECTION CONGEALS OVER ERN OK THROUGH THE EVENING...LIFT AND
SUSTAINED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM FRONT...AND UPSCALE EVOLUTION
IN STRONGLY SHEARED FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS/SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SEWD TOWARD AR AND THE
ARKLATEX THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

...ERN NC...
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS
SERN NC...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WLY FLOW
AROUND 40KT AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONE. A COUPLE HAIL/WIND EVENTS APPEAR POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..CARBIN.. 05/19/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190605
SWODY1
SPC AC 190604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO
NORTHERN TEXAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND
NORTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST FROM THESE AREAS...FROM ARKANSAS TO
LOUISIANA.

...SRN PLAINS INTO ARKLATEX...
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL EVOLVE ACROSS CO/WY EARLY TODAY AND
THEN DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW AS WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACT ON A
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM TX TO KS. PRECIPITATION
AND RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THE STORMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN OK
AND KS WILL ACT TO ESTABLISH A NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS OK
LATER THIS MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES OVER WRN KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON... TRIPLE
POINT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INVOF OK PANHANDLE AS
DRYLINE SHARPENS AND SPREADS EAST FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE. BELT OF
40-50KT WLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA
40KT. DIURNAL HEATING AND GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH WEAKLY
CAPPED MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J PER KG BY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN WEAK INHIBITION AND PERSISTENT MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
EXPECT WARM SECTOR STORM INITIATION EARLIER THAN LATER. DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE IN WRN
OK...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR/ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS
AND NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM NRN/CNTRL OK TO NRN TX/AR/LA.
EFFECTIVE HELICITY IN THE RANGE OF 200-300 M2/S2...AND RELATIVELY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH/LOW LFC ACROSS CNTRL OK...SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ENHANCED STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

UNLIKE MAY 10...WEAKER FLOW REGIME RESULTS IN SLOWER STORM/BUNKERS
CELL MOTION OF ENE AROUND 25 KT...AS OPPOSED TO ENE AT 50KT.
FURTHERMORE...INSTABILITY APPEARS A BIT WEAKER. NONETHELESS...A
POTENTIALLY VOLATILE STRONG TORNADO SITUATION MAY EVOLVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MOVING TOWARD
ERN OK INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS A RELATIVELY LIMITED GEOGRAPHIC
AREA OF GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL. COMBINED WITH THE POSSIBILITY
THAT FORECAST CERTAINTY CAN INCREASE WITH THE LIGHT OF DAY...GREATER
TORNADO PROBABILITIES...AND AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK...MAY OCCUR IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS A LARGER AREA FROM SRN KS EXTENDING INTO TX...AR AND LA FROM
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS CONVECTION CONGEALS OVER ERN OK THROUGH THE EVENING...LIFT AND
SUSTAINED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM FRONT...AND UPSCALE EVOLUTION
IN STRONGLY SHEARED FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS/SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SEWD TOWARD AR AND THE
ARKLATEX THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

...ERN NC...
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS
SERN NC...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WLY FLOW
AROUND 40KT AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONE. A COUPLE HAIL/WIND EVENTS APPEAR POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..CARBIN/ROGERS.. 05/19/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190603
SWODY1
SPC AC 190602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO
NORTHERN TEXAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND
NORTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST FROM THESE AREAS...FROM ARKANSAS TO
LOUISIANA.

...SRN PLAINS INTO ARKLATEX...
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL EVOLVE ACROSS CO/WY EARLY TODAY AND
THEN DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW AS WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACT ON A
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM TX TO KS. PRECIPITATION
AND RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THE STORMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN OK
AND KS WILL ACT TO ESTABLISH A NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS OK
LATER THIS MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES OVER WRN KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON... TRIPLE
POINT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INVOF OK PANHANDLE AS
DRYLINE SHARPENS AND SPREADS EAST FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE. BELT OF
40-50KT WLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA
40KT. DIURNAL HEATING AND GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH WEAKLY
CAPPED MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J PER KG BY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN WEAK INHIBITION AND PERSISTENT MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
EXPECT WARM SECTOR STORM INITIATION EARLIER THAN LATER. DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE IN WRN
OK...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR/ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS
AND NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM NRN/CNTRL OK TO NRN TX/AR/LA.
EFFECTIVE HELICITY IN THE RANGE OF 200-300 M2/S2...AND RELATIVELY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH/LOW LFC ACROSS CNTRL OK...SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ENHANCED STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

UNLIKE MAY 10...WEAKER FLOW REGIME RESULTS IN SLOWER STORM/BUNKERS
CELL MOTION OF ENE AROUND 25 KT...AS OPPOSED TO ENE AT 50KT.
FURTHERMORE...INSTABILITY APPEARS A BIT WEAKER. NONETHELESS...A
POTENTIALLY VOLATILE STRONG TORNADO SITUATION MAY EVOLVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MOVING TOWARD
ERN OK INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS A RELATIVELY LIMITED GEOGRAPHIC
AREA OF GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL. COMBINED WITH THE POSSIBILITY
THAT FORECAST CERTAINTY CAN INCREASE WITH THE LIGHT OF DAY...GREATER
TORNADO PROBABILITIES...AND AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK...MAY OCCUR IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS A LARGER AREA FROM SRN KS EXTENDING INTO TX...AR AND LA FROM
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS CONVECTION CONGEALS OVER ERN OK THROUGH THE EVENING...LIFT AND
SUSTAINED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM FRONT...AND UPSCALE EVOLUTION
IN STRONGLY SHEARED FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS/SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SEWD TOWARD AR AND THE
ARKLATEX THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

...ERN NC...
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS
SERN NC...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WLY FLOW
AROUND 40KT AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONE. A COUPLE HAIL/WIND EVENTS APPEAR POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..CARBIN/ROGERS.. 05/19/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.