SWODY3
SPC AC 190715
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...MID-MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
FRIDAY WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE TROUGH FROM NRN MS NWD ACROSS WRN TN INTO WRN KY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH COULD END UP BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN
STATES ON FRIDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUST SOUTH OF THE JET AXIS...THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN
WY AND WRN NEB WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD INITIATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT 00Z SATURDAY SHOW
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGESTING A FEW CELLS COULD HAVE A HAIL THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 05/19/2010
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