ACUS01 KWNS 040047
SWODY1
SPC AC 040044
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT WED OCT 03 2007
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER CONUS IS DEFINED PRIMARILY BY BROADLY
CYCLONIC FLOW BELT FROM PACIFIC NW TO NRN PLAINS...AND
SW-NE/ELONGATED CYCLONE EXTENDING FROM SRN GULF ACROSS GA. SFC
FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM OH VALLEY REGION SWWD ACROSS AR...RED
RIVER VALLEY AREA...THEN THROUGH WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW NEAR ABI.
FRONT BECOMES ILL-DEFINED FARTHER SW AND W AMIDST SEVERAL RECENT
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. PRIND RED RIVER SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL RETREAT
NWD ACROSS SRN OK OVERNIGHT AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE...AMIDST BROAD
ZONE OF MOST/WARM ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS. THIS WAA REGIME WILL
INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING OVER CO...OCCURRING BENEATH
SWLY MID/UPPER WINDS.
..SRN PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING ACROSS
NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM W-CENTRAL TX NEWD TOWARD RED RIVER
REGION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR NWD OVER PORTIONS
SRN/CENTRAL OK...AS SFC WARM FRONT AND AXIS OF LLJ EACH SHIFT NWD.
COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL/NRN OK MAY BE LIMITED BY STABLE LAYER EVIDENT
BETWEEN 600-700 MB IN OUN RAOB. WITH WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND DIABATICALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DURING
REMAINDER PERIOD...PRIND SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE
DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH MORE INTENSE CELLS STILL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
EPISODES OF HAIL/GUSTS APCHG SVR LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...GREATEST CONUS TSTM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
FL AND CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED AROUND ERN AND NRN PORTIONS OF BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...CENTERED W FMY AND S MOB AS OF 00Z.
.EDWARDS.. 10/04/2007
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