KPDT [100234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 100234
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
734 PM PDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0712 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NNW LA PINE 43.67N 121.50W
10/09/2007 DESCHUTES OR TRAINED SPOTTER

52 MPH GUST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-40 MPH. TREES AND
POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

$$

RTRIMAR

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KPDT [100205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 100205
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
704 PM PDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 SW SUNRIVER 43.82N 121.49W
10/09/2007 DESCHUTES OR TRAINED SPOTTER

3 TREES DOWN DUE TO STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. TREES
WERE 14 INCHES IN DIAMETER. SURFACE WINDS WERE LESS THAN
30 MPH AT THE TIME OF THE DAMAGE.

&&

$$

RTRIMAR

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KPHI [100140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 100140
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0711 PM HEAVY RAIN HAMBURG 40.56N 75.98W
10/09/2007 M1.11 INCH BERKS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

1.11 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED IN 45 MINUTES IN
HAMBURG.

0845 PM HEAVY RAIN MOUNT POCONO 41.12N 75.36W
10/09/2007 M2.31 INCH MONROE PA ASOS

2.31 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED AT THE MOUNT POCONO
AIRPORT THROUGH 930 PM.

0920 PM FLOOD 4 N BROOKSIDE 39.73N 75.71W
10/09/2007 NEW CASTLE DE TRAINED SPOTTER

ROADWAY FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON ROUTES 2 AND 7 ABOUT 3
MILES SOUTH OF PIKE CREEK. 1.37 INCHES OF RAIN WAS
REPORTED IN AN HOUR.

&&

$$

GORSE

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KPHI [100056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 100056
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
856 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0711 PM HEAVY RAIN HAMBURG 40.56N 75.98W
10/09/2007 M1.11 INCH BERKS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

1.11 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED IN 45 MINUTES IN
HAMBURG.

0845 PM HEAVY RAIN MOUNT POCONO 41.12N 75.36W
10/09/2007 M2.23 INCH MONROE PA ASOS

2.23 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED AT THE MOUNT POCONO
AIRPORT THROUGH 845 PM.

&&

$$

GORSE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100051
SWODY1
SPC AC 100048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..THE NORTHEAST...
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO WANE ACROSS THE PA/NY AND VICINITY WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ONGOING BOUNDARY-LAYER
STABILIZATION. FURTHER...WITH STORMS ONGOING FROM SERN PA/NJ NEWD
ENCOUNTERING STABLE/ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST...CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME.
GIVEN THE DECREASING THREAT...WILL REMOVE 5% WIND PROBABILITY THIS
FORECAST.

.GOSS.. 10/10/2007

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KMFR [092357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 092357
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
457 PM PDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1154 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG E MEDFORD 42.34N 122.85W
10/09/2007 JACKSON OR PUBLIC

PORTIONS OF A LARGE TREE REPORTED DOWN ON ROSEWOOD ST
BETWEEN 1000 AM AND 1200 PM PDT.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KBGM [092254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 092254
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG WAYMART 41.59N 75.41W
10/09/2007 WAYNE PA BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS KNOCKED DOWN TREES.

&&

$$

JMA

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KBGM [092143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 092143
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
543 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG CARBONDALE 41.57N 75.51W
10/09/2007 LACKAWANNA PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS KNOCKED DOWN MANY TREES THROUGHOUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF LACKAWANNA COUNTY.

&&

$$

MSE

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KBGM [092135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 092135
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
535 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0522 PM TSTM WND GST AVOCA 41.34N 75.74W
10/09/2007 M47.00 MPH LUZERNE PA ASOS

&&

$$

DJN

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KBGM [092119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KBGM 092119
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
519 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM TSTM WND DMG HIMROD 42.58N 76.95W
10/09/2007 YATES NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES,WIRES, AND POWER POLES DOWN. TOWN OF MILO.
LIGHTNING SET TRANSFORMERS ON FIRE.

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG OVID 42.68N 76.82W
10/09/2007 SENECA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLES AND WIRES DOWN.

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG WATKINS GLEN 42.38N 76.87W
10/09/2007 SCHUYLER NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. ALSO IN CATHERINE. POWER POLE DOWN
IN HECTOR.

0310 PM TSTM WND DMG GROTON 42.59N 76.37W
10/09/2007 TOMPKINS NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN

0405 PM TSTM WND DMG BINGHAMTON 42.10N 75.91W
10/09/2007 BROOME NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN. ALSO IN ENDICOTT AND PORT CRANE.

0415 PM HAIL PORT CRANE 42.17N 75.83W
10/09/2007 U0.88 INCH BROOME NY PUBLIC

0435 PM TSTM WND DMG RUSH 41.78N 76.05W
10/09/2007 SUSQUEHANNA PA LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

TAC

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KBOI [092116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KBOI 092116
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
315 PM MDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1052 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S MOUNTAIN HOME AFB 43.03N 115.87W
10/09/2007 M41.00 MPH ELMORE ID MESONET

MOUNTAIN HOME RAWS GUST 41 MPH.

1118 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BOISE 43.61N 116.23W
10/09/2007 M41.00 MPH ADA ID ASOS

BOI ASOS 14028G41 MPH.

1145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S KUNA 43.46N 116.42W
10/09/2007 M46.00 MPH ADA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS WINDS 14034G46 MPH.

1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE BAKER 44.81N 117.73W
10/09/2007 M43.00 MPH BAKER OR MESONET

FLAGSTAFF HILL RAWS GUST 43 MPH.

&&

$$

DDECKER

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KBGM [092038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KBGM 092038
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
438 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM TSTM WND DMG PENN YAN 42.66N 77.05W
10/09/2007 YATES NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG OVID 42.68N 76.82W
10/09/2007 SENECA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLE DOWN

0310 PM TSTM WND DMG GROTON 42.59N 76.37W
10/09/2007 TOMPKINS NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN

0405 PM TSTM WND DMG BINGHAMTON 42.10N 75.91W
10/09/2007 BROOME NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN. ALSO IN ENDICOTT AND PORT CRANE.

0415 PM HAIL PORT CRANE 42.17N 75.83W
10/09/2007 U0.88 INCH BROOME NY PUBLIC

&&

$$

TAC

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KBGM [092011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KBGM 092011
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
411 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM TSTM WND DMG PENN YAN 42.66N 77.05W
10/09/2007 YATES NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG OVID 42.68N 76.82W
10/09/2007 SENECA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLE DOWN

0310 PM TSTM WND DMG GROTON 42.59N 76.37W
10/09/2007 TOMPKINS NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN

&&

$$

TAC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091944
SWODY1
SPC AC 091941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY FALL
ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
FROM WRN NY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NW PA INTO WRN WV. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
NEAR THE PEAK IN INSTABILITY. THE LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS
MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PA WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOCALLY EXCEED 7.5 C/KM AND THIS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOWS VERTICAL SHEAR GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT
SUGGESTING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.BROYLES.. 10/09/2007

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KBRO [091937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 091937
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
237 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM TSTM WND GST BROWNSVILLE 25.93N 97.48W
10/09/2007 E40 MPH CAMERON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

CITY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED SEVERAL SMALL OUTSIDE
CHURCH BOOTHS TOSSED AROUND.

&&

$$

AVEGA

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KBOI [091935]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 091935
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
135 PM MDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1052 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S MOUNTAIN HOME AFB 43.03N 115.87W
10/09/2007 M41.00 MPH ELMORE ID MESONET

MOUNTAIN HOME RAWS GUST 41 MPH.

1118 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BOISE 43.61N 116.23W
10/09/2007 M41.00 MPH ADA ID ASOS

BOI ASOS 14028G41 MPH.

1145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S KUNA 43.46N 116.42W
10/09/2007 M46.00 MPH ADA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS WINDS 14034G46 MPH.

&&

$$

DDECKER

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KMFR [091857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 091857
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1157 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1154 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW KLAMATH FALLS 42.25N 121.78W
10/09/2007 E40 MPH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ESTIMATED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 22-27 MPH GUSTING
TO 34-40 MPH.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KBGM [091852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 091852
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
252 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM TSTM WND DMG PENN YAN 42.66N 77.05W
10/09/2007 YATES NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG OVID 42.68N 76.82W
10/09/2007 SENECA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLE DOWN

&&

$$

TAC

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091729
SWODY2
SPC AC 091727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES
ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NC AND SC...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
UNORGANIZED.

.BROYLES.. 10/09/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091616
SWODY1
SPC AC 091613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO PA AND
CENTRAL NY. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THIS REGION AND SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MORNING RAOBS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE
VALUES LIMITING UPDRAFT INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. HOWEVER...
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO BECOME
STRONG/SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NY/PA INTO PARTS OF
MD/DE/NJ. GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.HART/GUYER/KIS.. 10/09/2007

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KOAX [091457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 091457
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
957 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 PM HAIL 5 W NORTH BEND 41.47N 96.88W
09/24/2007 E1.00 INCH DODGE NE PUBLIC

HAIL UP TO AROUND ONE INCH IN DIAMETER DAMAGED VEHICLES.

&&

$$

MILLER

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KMLB [091259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 091259
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
859 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HIGH SURF DAYTONA BEACH 29.21N 81.03W
10/01/2007 VOLUSIA FL BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL *** A 19-YEAR OLD TOURIST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA
DROWNED NEAR THE DAYTONA BEACH PIER IN HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MWB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091243
SWODY1
SPC AC 091240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NWD OFF THE ORE/WA COASTS WHILE A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW NEAR 137 W/ ROTATES EWD TO NRN CA BY
LATE TONIGHT. AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...WHICH
SUPPORTS A GENERAL SEWD MOTION OF THE OCCLUDED LOW NOW OVER ONTARIO.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO LOW
WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
OCCLUSION POINT OF THIS COLD FRONT AND A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS NY/NJ
WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM WRN NY EARLY TODAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY 10/12Z.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TODAY IN THE NARROW
WEDGE BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS ACROSS NY/PA...WHERE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE RATHER POOR...AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE WEAK TO THE W OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARIES MERGE...BUT THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT ANY
SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
FROM APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST. THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL OCCUR TODAY FROM ERN MS/AL INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
WITHIN A PLUME OF RICHER MOISTURE...IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ESEWD FROM SRN IL/MO/AR. A SEPARATE
AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SE AZ AS LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NWD FROM MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN
CA/NRN BAJA.

.THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 10/09/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090804
SWOD48
SPC AC 090804

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

..DISCUSSION...

SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS
SATURDAY DAY 5 THROUGH SUNDAY DAY 6.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY DAY 4.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS AS WELL AS THE MREF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVANCING A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM CP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
STATES...WITH TRAJECTORIES BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE INTO DAY 6 AS
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD. EXPECTED LESS THAN OPTIMAL MOISTURE
RETURN MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...AT LEAST PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WILL RETURN NWD BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. INSTABILITY MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

.DIAL.. 10/09/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 090707
SWODY3
SPC AC 090705

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEWD OVER MUCH OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE GULF PROVIDING
STABLE CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FARTHER WEST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM WRN TX INTO NM WHERE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF WILL LIMIT
QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN IN THIS AREA. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL PRECLUDE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

.DIAL.. 10/09/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090548
SWODY1
SPC AC 090547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

MEANWHILE...LARGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS WA/ORE/CA AND
MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..ERN PA AND VICINITY...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...AHEAD OF WEAKENING FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED/SUB-SEVERE.
MODELS HINT THAT ESELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROVIDE LOCALLY-ENHANCED SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL/LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF/STRONGER WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.GOSS.. 10/09/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 090526
SWODY2
SPC AC 090524

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NC AND SC COASTAL AREAS...

UPPER LOW OVER MN WILL AMPLIFY SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS
PERIOD. EARLY WEDNESDAY AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO THE NERN U.S. WITH A COLD
FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS...GULF
COASTAL AREA AND S TX. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SEWD AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE DAY. AN AXIS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL MOIST AXIS OVER THE
SERN U.S. COAST AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...AND A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THIS REGION BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD THAT STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOW.

..NM...

POTENTIAL FOR WEAK IMPULSES TO MOVE INTO THE SWRN U.S. WILL PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES AND
SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SOME STORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY AND A MARGINAL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT SEVERE
THREAT.

.DIAL.. 10/09/2007

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KKEY [090438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 090438
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1238 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0924 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
10/08/2007 M41 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

THE SAND KEY C-MAN STATION MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 36 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING SHOWER.

1008 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
10/08/2007 M43 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

THE SAND KEY C-MAN STATION MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 37 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING SHOWER.

&&

$$

LEE

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