SWODY1
SPC AC 091240
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NWD OFF THE ORE/WA COASTS WHILE A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW NEAR 137 W/ ROTATES EWD TO NRN CA BY
LATE TONIGHT. AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...WHICH
SUPPORTS A GENERAL SEWD MOTION OF THE OCCLUDED LOW NOW OVER ONTARIO.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO LOW
WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
OCCLUSION POINT OF THIS COLD FRONT AND A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS NY/NJ
WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM WRN NY EARLY TODAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY 10/12Z.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TODAY IN THE NARROW
WEDGE BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS ACROSS NY/PA...WHERE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE RATHER POOR...AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE WEAK TO THE W OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARIES MERGE...BUT THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT ANY
SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
FROM APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST. THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL OCCUR TODAY FROM ERN MS/AL INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
WITHIN A PLUME OF RICHER MOISTURE...IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ESEWD FROM SRN IL/MO/AR. A SEPARATE
AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SE AZ AS LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NWD FROM MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN
CA/NRN BAJA.
.THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 10/09/2007
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