KDDC [260351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 260351
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
950 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0949 PM HEAVY RAIN N KISMET 37.21N 100.70W
11/25/2011 M1.25 INCH SEWARD KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KSUGDEN

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KABQ [260146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 260146
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
646 PM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 5 SW BONITO LAKE 33.40N 105.78W
11/25/2011 E3.0 INCH LINCOLN NM OTHER FEDERAL

SIERRA BLANCA SNOTEL.

0736 AM SNOW 6 WSW BONITO LAKE 33.40N 105.80W
11/25/2011 E2.5 INCH LINCOLN NM PUBLIC

SKI APACHE.

0800 AM SNOW 11 NNW CANON PLAZA 36.70N 106.25W
11/25/2011 E5.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

HOPEWELL SNOTEL.

0800 AM SNOW 5 NW CHAMA 36.95N 106.65W
11/25/2011 E3.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

CHAMITA SNOTEL.

0800 AM SNOW 8 SSW SAN MIGUEL 36.87N 106.23W
11/25/2011 E2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

SAN ANTONIO SINK SNOTEL.

0800 AM SNOW 7 E CANJILON 36.50N 106.31W
11/25/2011 E3.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

BATEMAN SNOTEL.

1000 AM SNOW 5 E EL MORRO 35.05N 108.24W
11/25/2011 M1.0 INCH CIBOLA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 AM SNOW CHAMA 36.89N 106.58W
11/25/2011 M5.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

1100 AM SNOW 7 ESE CUBA 36.00N 106.83W
11/25/2011 E3.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

SENORITA DIVIDE SNOTEL.

1100 AM SNOW 9 E CUBA 36.02N 106.80W
11/25/2011 E4.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

VACAS LOCAS SNOTEL.

1100 AM SNOW 5 WNW LOS ALAMOS 35.91N 106.38W
11/25/2011 E1.0 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

QUEMAZON SNOTEL.

1100 AM SNOW 6 WNW TERERRO 35.76N 105.78W
11/25/2011 E2.5 INCH SANTA FE NM OTHER FEDERAL

SANTA FE SNOTEL.

1100 AM SNOW 4 NNW TRES RITOS 36.18N 105.55W
11/25/2011 E2.0 INCH TAOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

GALLEGOS PEAK SNOTEL.

1100 AM SNOW 8 NE ARROYO SECO 36.58N 105.45W
11/25/2011 E4.0 INCH TAOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

TAOS POWDERHORN SNOTEL.

1132 AM SNOW 6 WNW SANDIA PARK 35.21N 106.45W
11/25/2011 E4.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1200 PM SNOW 5 ESE RED RIVER 36.68N 105.33W
11/25/2011 E1.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

RED RIVER PASS SNOTEL.

0100 PM SNOW 1 ENE LUNA 33.82N 108.94W
11/25/2011 M1.8 INCH CATRON NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM SNOW 2 N CHAMA 36.92N 106.58W
11/25/2011 M4.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0500 PM SNOW 12 NNW JEMEZ SPRINGS 35.95N 106.75W
11/25/2011 M1.0 INCH SANDOVAL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1101523 ABQ1101524 ABQ1101525 ABQ1101526 ABQ1101527
ABQ1101528 ABQ1101529 ABQ1101539 ABQ1101530 ABQ1101531 ABQ1101532
ABQ1101533 ABQ1101534 ABQ1101535 ABQ1101536 ABQ1101537 ABQ1101541
ABQ1101538 ABQ1101540

$$

SHY

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KCYS [260029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 260029
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
529 PM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
11/25/2011 M50 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 38 MPH.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260027
SWODY1
SPC AC 260025

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2011

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...

EARLY THIS EVENING...A NARROW BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS
ADVECTING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AT ROUGHLY 20KT. VERY LITTLE
LIGHTNING IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND BUT ISOLATED
STRIKES ARE NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN OK AND ALONG THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE BORDER. LATEST 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH OUN AND FWD
EXHIBIT STRONG CAPPING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT MID
LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE MEANINGFUL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WITH TIME
CONTINUED MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY
FOR AT LEAST A THREAT OF A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN
OTHERWISE NONDESCRIPT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE.

..DARROW.. 11/26/2011

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KBOI [252321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 252321
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
421 PM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS JEROME 42.73N 114.52W
11/25/2011 M30.00 MPH JEROME ID ASOS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 51 MPH
FROM 10 AM TO 2 PM.

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS TWIN FALLS 42.56N 114.46W
11/25/2011 M35.00 MPH TWIN FALLS ID ASOS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 37 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 46 MPH
FROM 11 AM TO 2 PM.

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 S TWIN BUTTES 42.69N 115.20W
11/25/2011 M33.00 MPH OWYHEE ID MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 51 MPH FROM 10 AM
TO 2 PM.

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS MOUNTAIN HOME AFB 43.05N 115.87W
11/25/2011 M30.00 MPH ELMORE ID ASOS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH FROM 10 AM
TO 2 PM.

&&

$$

DDECKER

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KCYS [252316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 252316
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
416 PM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WHITAKER 41.41N 104.87W
11/25/2011 M52 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

SUSTAINED AT 43 MPH.

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NW ELK MOUNTAIN 41.76N 106.51W
11/25/2011 M58 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 41 MPH.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCHS [252307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252307
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
607 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
11/25/2011 CHARLESTON SC TIDE GAGE

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 7.05 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1101026

$$

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KCYS [252254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 252254
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
353 PM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 WNW ELK MOUNTAIN 41.74N 106.57W
11/25/2011 M60 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 44 MPH.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [252235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 252235
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
335 PM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 S GLENDO 42.32N 105.03W
11/25/2011 M52 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 38 MPH.

0315 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAWLINS 41.78N 107.23W
11/25/2011 M52 MPH CARBON WY ASOS

SUSTAINED AT 38 MPH.

0315 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW ELK MOUNTAIN 41.72N 106.45W
11/25/2011 M56 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 37 MPH.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [252218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 252218
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
318 PM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 SSW HANNA 41.72N 106.64W
11/25/2011 M54 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 43 MPH.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [252132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 252132
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
232 PM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 WSW MUDDY GAP 42.34N 107.57W
11/25/2011 M58 MPH FREMONT WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

$$

RUBIN

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KABQ [252107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 252107
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
206 PM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW CHAMA 36.89N 106.58W
11/25/2011 M4.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 5 SW BONITO LAKE 33.40N 105.78W
11/25/2011 E3.0 INCH LINCOLN NM OTHER FEDERAL

SIERRA BLANCA SNOTEL.

0736 AM SNOW 6 WSW BONITO LAKE 33.40N 105.80W
11/25/2011 E2.5 INCH LINCOLN NM PUBLIC

SKI APACHE.

0800 AM SNOW 11 NNW CANON PLAZA 36.70N 106.25W
11/25/2011 E5.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

HOPEWELL SNOTEL.

0800 AM SNOW 5 NW CHAMA 36.95N 106.65W
11/25/2011 E3.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

CHAMITA SNOTEL.

0800 AM SNOW 8 SSW SAN MIGUEL 36.87N 106.23W
11/25/2011 E2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

SAN ANTONIO SINK SNOTEL.

0800 AM SNOW 7 E CANJILON 36.50N 106.31W
11/25/2011 E3.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

BATEMAN SNOTEL.

1000 AM SNOW 5 E EL MORRO 35.05N 108.24W
11/25/2011 M1.0 INCH CIBOLA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 AM SNOW 7 ESE CUBA 36.00N 106.83W
11/25/2011 E3.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

SENORITA DIVIDE SNOTEL.

1100 AM SNOW 9 E CUBA 36.02N 106.80W
11/25/2011 E4.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

VACAS LOCAS SNOTEL.

1100 AM SNOW 5 WNW LOS ALAMOS 35.91N 106.38W
11/25/2011 E1.0 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

QUEMAZON SNOTEL.

1100 AM SNOW 6 WNW TERERRO 35.76N 105.78W
11/25/2011 E2.5 INCH SANTA FE NM OTHER FEDERAL

SANTA FE SNOTEL.

1100 AM SNOW 4 NNW TRES RITOS 36.18N 105.55W
11/25/2011 E2.0 INCH TAOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

GALLEGOS PEAK SNOTEL.

1100 AM SNOW 8 NE ARROYO SECO 36.58N 105.45W
11/25/2011 E4.0 INCH TAOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

TAOS POWDERHORN SNOTEL.

1132 AM SNOW 6 WNW SANDIA PARK 35.21N 106.45W
11/25/2011 E4.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1200 PM SNOW 5 ESE RED RIVER 36.68N 105.33W
11/25/2011 E1.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

RED RIVER PASS SNOTEL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1101522 ABQ1101523 ABQ1101524 ABQ1101525 ABQ1101526
ABQ1101527 ABQ1101528 ABQ1101529 ABQ1101530 ABQ1101531 ABQ1101532
ABQ1101533 ABQ1101534 ABQ1101535 ABQ1101536 ABQ1101537

$$

50

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KTFX [252012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 252012
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
112 PM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
11/25/2011 M69 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

69 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT HEART BUTTE.

&&

$$

NJL

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KCYS [251954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KCYS 251954
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1253 PM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1241 PM HIGH SUST WINDS CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
11/25/2011 M37.00 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

PEAK GUST OF 46 MPH THROUGH 1250 PM MST.

&&

$$

HAMMER

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KCYS [251952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 251952
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1251 PM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1201 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 14 NE CENTENNIAL 41.44N 105.92W
11/25/2011 M35 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

GUSTS TO 48 MPH.

1153 AM HIGH SUST WINDS LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
11/25/2011 M37 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

1150 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 16 E HORSE CREEK 41.41N 104.87W
11/25/2011 M42 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WINDS OCCASIONALLY ABOVE 40 MPH BETWEEN 1130 AM
AND 1210 PM MST. GUSTS TO 52 MPH.

1150 AM HIGH SUST WINDS CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
11/25/2011 M37 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

PEAK GUST OF 46 MPH THROUGH 1250 PM MST.

&&

$$

HAMMER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251917
SWODY1
SPC AC 251915

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2011

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXISTING THUNDER LINE OVER TX...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 11/25/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011/

LITTLE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST NEEDED. EXPANDED LOW TSTM
PROBABILITIES FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS/ERN
OK. LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM IN WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION PROFILES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z IMMEDIATELY
ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT. NO SVR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION VALID AND UNCHANGED.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0638 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE BUT INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE W CST IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING PACIFIC SYSTEM NOW NEARING 150W. RISING HEIGHTS IN THE
WEST SHOULD FOSTER PHASING OF THE TWO DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
NOW PRESENT OVER THE NRN RCKYS AND THE SWRN STATES. THE SWRN SYSTEM

SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO THE NM/TX BORDER BY THIS EVE...WHILE THE NRN
SYSTEM AMPLIFIES ESE INTO WY. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE OVER WRN PORTIONS

OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EARLY SAT...AND EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MS VLY EARLY SUN.

...SRN RCKYS/SRN PLNS...
MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NE IN WARM
CONVEYOR BELT ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN TROUGH. AS THIS MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE SRN RCKYS AND HI PLNS...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY

MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM

NM ENE INTO PARTS OF OK LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHERE MUCAPE COULD
APPROACH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.

FARTHER S...A NARROW ZONE OF LWR LVL MOISTURE INFLOW/WAA WILL FOCUS
ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS/LEE TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VLY REGION OF S

TX. BOTH MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF LOW LVL MOISTENING WILL
REMAIN MODEST...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. BUT CONVERGENCE/WAA MAY
SUPPORT A FEW NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS DURING THE LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

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KTFX [251909]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 251909
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1209 PM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1152 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SE HILGER 47.18N 109.25W
11/25/2011 M66 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

WIND GUST OF 66 MPH MEASURED AT JUDITH PEAK.

&&

$$

NJL

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KCYS [251840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 251840
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1139 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1051 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 14 NE CENTENNIAL 41.44N 105.92W
11/25/2011 M43 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 MPH BETWEEN
1031 AM AND 1051 AM MST. PEAK GUST 55 MPH AT 1031 AM MST.

1110 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
11/25/2011 M51 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 MPH FROM 1025 AM MST UNTIL
1110 AM MST.

&&

$$

HAMMER

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KEPZ [251824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 251824
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1124 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1123 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE TYRONE 32.74N 108.29W
11/25/2011 M1.55 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100371

$$

TRIPOLI

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KMSO [251810]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 251810
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1110 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM SNOW DIXIE COOP DXEI1 45.55N 115.45W
11/25/2011 M2.5 INCH IDAHO ID CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL REPORT OF 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN DIXIE
IDAHO

0830 AM SNOW 9 NNE YAAK 48.95N 115.63W
11/25/2011 M1.0 INCH LINCOLN MT CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL REPORT OF 1 INCH OF SNOW 9 MILES NORTH
OF YAAK, MONTANA.

1000 AM SNOW 4 S MISSOULA 46.81N 113.99W
11/25/2011 U0.0 INCH MISSOULA MT BROADCAST MEDIA

ROADS CLOSED DUE TO MORNING SNOW SQUALL IMPACTS

1050 AM SNOW 4 E FLORENCE 46.63N 113.99W
11/25/2011 M1.5 INCH RAVALLI MT NWS EMPLOYEE

1.5 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED SINCE THIS MORNING NEAR THE
TOWN OF FLORENCE, MT.

&&

$$

LBR

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KCYS [251739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 251739
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1039 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0953 AM HIGH SUST WINDS DOUGLAS 42.76N 105.39W
11/25/2011 M39 MPH CONVERSE WY ASOS

WIND GUSTS TO 54 MPH.

&&

$$

HAMMER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251652
SWODY2
SPC AC 251650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES DURING THE DAY...APPROACHING THE MS RIVER BY SUN MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW WILL STRETCH FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY FROM A GREAT
LAKES LOW AT 00Z. FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT...WILL INTERACT WITH NWD ADVANCING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE.

ELSEWHERE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
ENCOMPASSING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

...SERN TX...LA...SRN MS AND AL...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX EARLY SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S F...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL
GENERALLY BE POOR...WITH WEAK LI VALUES AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
250-500 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG AND PERSISTENT FORCING...AS
WELL AS MODESTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW
BOWING STRUCTURES WITH ATTENDANT WIND THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A SECONDARY AREA OF POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER ERN LA INTO MS IN A ZONE
OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET CORE. MODELS INDICATE THIS NWD ADVANCEMENT OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
LITTLE VERTICAL ACCELERATION POTENTIAL DUE TO WEAK BUOYANCY.
HOWEVER...THIS AREA BEARS WATCHING AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION.

..JEWELL.. 11/25/2011

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KCYS [251642]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 251642
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
941 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 7 SE ARLINGTON 41.52N 106.11W
11/25/2011 M41 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH BETWEEN 750 AM AND
825 AM MST. WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

$$

HAMMER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251629
SWODY1
SPC AC 251627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LITTLE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST NEEDED. EXPANDED LOW TSTM
PROBABILITIES FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS/ERN
OK. LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM IN WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION PROFILES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z IMMEDIATELY
ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT. NO SVR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION VALID AND UNCHANGED.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0638 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE BUT INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE W CST IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING PACIFIC SYSTEM NOW NEARING 150W. RISING HEIGHTS IN THE
WEST SHOULD FOSTER PHASING OF THE TWO DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
NOW PRESENT OVER THE NRN RCKYS AND THE SWRN STATES. THE SWRN SYSTEM

SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO THE NM/TX BORDER BY THIS EVE...WHILE THE NRN
SYSTEM AMPLIFIES ESE INTO WY. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE OVER WRN PORTIONS

OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EARLY SAT...AND EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MS VLY EARLY SUN.

...SRN RCKYS/SRN PLNS...
MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NE IN WARM
CONVEYOR BELT ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN TROUGH. AS THIS MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE SRN RCKYS AND HI PLNS...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY

MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM

NM ENE INTO PARTS OF OK LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHERE MUCAPE COULD
APPROACH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.

FARTHER S...A NARROW ZONE OF LWR LVL MOISTURE INFLOW/WAA WILL FOCUS
ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS/LEE TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VLY REGION OF S

TX. BOTH MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF LOW LVL MOISTENING WILL
REMAIN MODEST...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. BUT CONVERGENCE/WAA MAY
SUPPORT A FEW NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS DURING THE LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

..RACY/ROGERS.. 11/25/2011

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KPUB [251626]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 251626
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
926 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 AM SNOW ALAMOSA 37.47N 105.87W
11/25/2011 M1.0 INCH ALAMOSA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MN

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KMSO [251600]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 251600
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
900 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM HEAVY SNOW MISSOULA 46.87N 113.99W
11/25/2011 M1.0 INCH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

1 INCH OF SNOW FELL AT THE MISSOULA AIRPORT IN 45 MINUTES
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 46 MILES PER HOUR.

&&

$$

LBR

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KCYS [251536]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 251536
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
835 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE ARLINGTON 41.55N 106.08W
11/25/2011 M60 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 MPH BETWEEN 750 AM
AND 810 AM MST.

&&

$$

HAMMER

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KMSO [251517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 251517
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
817 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 NNW NOXON 48.12N 115.85W
11/25/2011 E0 MPH SANDERS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE BRANCHES OF 3 INCH IN DIATMETER WERE BLOWN DOWN 9
MILES NORTH OF NOXON AT 545AM THIS MONRNING. WIND GUST
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW SNOWBAND.

&&

$$

LBR

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KPUB [251447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 251447
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
747 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
11/25/2011 M4.0 INCH MINERAL CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MN

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KCYS [251441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 251441
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
741 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
11/25/2011 M50 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0707 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 13 SE LARAMIE 41.18N 105.41W
11/25/2011 M39 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WIND GUSTS TO 47 MPH.

&&

$$

HAMMER

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KEPZ [251416]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEPZ 251416
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
716 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0659 AM HEAVY RAIN CLOVERDALE 31.42N 108.93W
11/25/2011 M1.35 INCH HIDALGO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0703 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE KDMN 32.25N 107.69W
11/25/2011 M1.31 INCH LUNA NM ASOS

0710 AM HEAVY RAIN SAN LORENZO 32.81N 107.92W
11/25/2011 M1.00 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100370 EPZ1100369 EPZ1100368

$$

TRIPOLI

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KCYS [251347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 251347
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
647 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE ARLINGTON 41.58N 106.17W
11/25/2011 M48 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
11/25/2011 M45 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0605 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 SE LARAMIE 41.18N 105.41W
11/25/2011 M47 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

$$

HAMMER

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KCHS [251322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 251322
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
822 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
11/25/2011 CHARLESTON SC TIDE GAGE

TIDE REACHED 7.05 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1101025

$$

BDC

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KGJT [251305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 251305
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
605 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM SNOW 18 NNE DURANGO 37.53N 107.74W
11/25/2011 M3.0 INCH LA PLATA CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24HR SNOWFALL AT LAKE HAVILAND

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100608

$$

DC

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KCYS [251244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 251244
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
544 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/25/2011 M43 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0520 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE ARLINGTON 41.58N 106.17W
11/25/2011 M45 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 23 W CHEYENNE 41.14N 105.23W
11/25/2011 M47 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251240
SWODY1
SPC AC 251238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE BUT INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE W CST IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING PACIFIC SYSTEM NOW NEARING 150W. RISING HEIGHTS IN THE
WEST SHOULD FOSTER PHASING OF THE TWO DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
NOW PRESENT OVER THE NRN RCKYS AND THE SWRN STATES. THE SWRN SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO THE NM/TX BORDER BY THIS EVE...WHILE THE NRN
SYSTEM AMPLIFIES ESE INTO WY. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE OVER WRN PORTIONS
OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EARLY SAT...AND EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MS VLY EARLY SUN.

...SRN RCKYS/SRN PLNS...
MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NE IN WARM
CONVEYOR BELT ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN TROUGH. AS THIS MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE SRN RCKYS AND HI PLNS...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY
MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM
NM ENE INTO PARTS OF OK LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHERE MUCAPE COULD
APPROACH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.

FARTHER S...A NARROW ZONE OF LWR LVL MOISTURE INFLOW/WAA WILL FOCUS
ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS/LEE TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VLY REGION OF S
TX. BOTH MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF LOW LVL MOISTENING WILL
REMAIN MODEST...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. BUT CONVERGENCE/WAA MAY
SUPPORT A FEW NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS DURING THE LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 11/25/2011

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KCYS [251156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 251156
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
456 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ESTERBROOK 42.41N 105.36W
11/25/2011 M55 MPH CONVERSE WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/25/2011 M42 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KCYS [251103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 251103
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ESTERBROOK 42.41N 105.36W
11/25/2011 M54 MPH CONVERSE WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/25/2011 M45 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE ARLINGTON 41.55N 106.08W
11/25/2011 M54 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST PUMPKIN VINE 41.05N 105.46W
11/25/2011 M42 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KCYS [250940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 250940
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
240 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0236 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ESTERBROOK 42.41N 105.36W
11/25/2011 M47 MPH CONVERSE WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

0236 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/25/2011 M44 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 36 MPH.

0236 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 NNE CENTENNIAL 41.50N 106.00W
11/25/2011 M57 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0236 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE ARLINGTON 41.55N 106.08W
11/25/2011 M56 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WINDS WERE SUSTAIJED AT 43 MPH.

0236 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE ARLINGTON 41.58N 106.17W
11/25/2011 M48 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0236 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 NE CENTENNIAL 41.44N 105.92W
11/25/2011 M52 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0236 AM NON-TSTM WND GST PUMPKIN VINE 41.05N 105.46W
11/25/2011 M47 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250938
SWOD48
SPC AC 250937

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE SPREAD THAT EXISTS IN D2-3 ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT CERTAINLY IMPACTS THE CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE TSTMS OCCURRING IN
THE D4-8 PERIOD. EVEN SO...THE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF INDICATE THAT MODESTLY RICH WRN/CNTRL GULF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BECOME PINCHED OFF BY THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RENDER
RELATIVELY MARGINAL THETA-E ON MON-TUE/D4-5 IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND
MITIGATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A 30 PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE TSTM AREA
ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 11/25/2011

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KCYS [250829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 250829
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
129 AM MST FRI NOV 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ESTERBROOK 42.41N 105.36W
11/25/2011 M46 MPH CONVERSE WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/25/2011 M48 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 36 MPH.

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 S GLENDO 42.32N 105.03W
11/25/2011 M47 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE ARLINGTON 41.55N 106.08W
11/25/2011 M60 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE ARLINGTON 41.58N 106.17W
11/25/2011 M55 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 NE CENTENNIAL 41.44N 105.92W
11/25/2011 M58 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250806
SWODY3
SPC AC 250805

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...CNTRL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...
THE LARGE DEGREE OF MODEL SPREAD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS ALLUDED TO IN THE D2
OUTLOOK...INCREASES FURTHER INTO D3 AND RENDERS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FORECAST.

AFTER A PERIOD OF PHASING LATE FRI INTO SAT ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE
00Z ECMWF FORMS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY
MON...FARTHER SW THAN THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. MEANWHILE...THE
GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN MAINTAIN A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
ERN ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUITE CONTRASTING WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
HOLDING THE FRONT ACROSS AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE...WHILE THE GFS IS
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z MON. AS
SUCH...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INLAND PENETRATION OF
LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE EFFECTIVELY
PINCHES OFF THIS MOISTURE RETURN WITH SEEMINGLY MINIMAL TSTM
POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD. A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT COULD
MATERIALIZE IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST BASED SOLELY ON THE ECMWF. BUT
GIVEN THE VERY LARGE SPREAD AMONG GUIDANCE...WILL DEFER TO LATER
FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..GRAMS.. 11/25/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250651
SWODY2
SPC AC 250650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL RESULT IN A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE PLAINS ON SAT.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY WITH THE RATE OF EWD TRANSLATION...THE
ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN.
NEVERTHELESS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AT 26/12Z SHOULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS EWD TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDING S/SWWD FROM THE
CYCLONE TO THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD SWEEP SEWD AND REACH THE MIDWEST TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING ON SAT.

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE CNTRL STATES TROUGH
BREEDS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT.
STILL MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
PRIOR TO FROPA BASED ON OBSERVED PW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF...WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH
NEAR 60 F OVER SERN TO DEEP S TX ACROSS LA TO CNTRL MS...TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WITHIN A WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT /ESPECIALLY POOR E OF
TX/...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE MEAGER WITH MUCAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN AOB 500
J/KG ALONG THE COAST /WEAKER INLAND/...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
CHARGE SEPARATION. STILL...FORCED ASCENT WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SERN/DEEP S TX SAT MORNING/AFTERNOON AND EWD
TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST SAT NIGHT.

STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SWLYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N/NW OF THE WARM
SECTOR ENVIRONMENT...WITH COMPARATIVELY STRONGER AND MORE BACKED
LOW-LEVEL SLYS IN THE ECMWF. THE LATTER WOULD PROVIDE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A TORNADO FROM THE SABINE
RIVER TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS/NAM/SREF WOULD
SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST MODELS WILL MAINTAIN A 5 PERCENT TOTAL
SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 11/25/2011

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KEPZ [250546]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 250546
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1046 PM MST THU NOV 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 PM FLOOD DEMING 32.26N 107.75W
11/24/2011 LUNA NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT CONTINUES TO REPORT MINOR FLOODING IN
THE DEMING AREA WITH UP TO A FOOT OF WATER COVERING A
NUMBER OF STREETS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100367

$$

JAR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250542
SWODY1
SPC AC 250540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST THU NOV 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS...

LOW LATITUDE UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE
IT/S ENEWD MOVEMENT INTO NM WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER HEIGHT FALLS
FROM NRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE NRN
TROUGH IT APPEARS THE TWO WILL PHASE LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE CONUS BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW EVOLVES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY LATE DAY2.

PRIOR TO THIS PHASING...MOISTENING WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS SUCH THAT ELEVATED BUOYANCY
WILL LIKELY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE PROSPECT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE EJECTING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE FROM NM...EWD INTO PORTIONS OF
CNTRL OK LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG.

FARTHER SOUTH...A NARROW ZONE OF MOIST/WARM ADVECTION WILL FOCUS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRAND VALLEY REGION OF SOUTH TX. HERE TOO
THIS REGION WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE BUT FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW A FEW NEAR-SFC BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

..DARROW/SMITH.. 11/25/2011

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