SWOD48
SPC AC 250937
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE SPREAD THAT EXISTS IN D2-3 ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT CERTAINLY IMPACTS THE CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE TSTMS OCCURRING IN
THE D4-8 PERIOD. EVEN SO...THE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF INDICATE THAT MODESTLY RICH WRN/CNTRL GULF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BECOME PINCHED OFF BY THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RENDER
RELATIVELY MARGINAL THETA-E ON MON-TUE/D4-5 IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND
MITIGATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A 30 PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE TSTM AREA
ATTM.
..GRAMS.. 11/25/2011
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