KPSR [180303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 180303
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
803 PM MST SUN MAY 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0734 PM TSTM WND GST FREEMAN 32.85N 112.30W
05/17/2009 E65 MPH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

INTERSTATE 8 AT MILE MARKER 134

&&

$$

MB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180101
SWODY1
SPC AC 180058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2009

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...THE SOUTHEAST...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS
OF FL/SERN GA AND INTO SC...NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. MODEST INSTABILITY AND
MINIMAL SHEAR SUGGEST LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
STRONGER GUST OR 3/4 INCH HAILSTONE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ONE OR
TWO OF THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE STORMS UNDERGO FURTHER DIURNAL WEAKENING.

...S CENTRAL AZ...
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
AZ...WHERE MARGINAL CAPE IS INDICATED ATOP A DEEP/WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. A WEAK WAVE MOVING WWD ACROSS SRN AZ -- APPARENT AS
A ZONE OF MOISTENING IN THE LATEST WV LOOP -- APPEARS TO BE
ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WHILE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...AN ISOLATED STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE GUST
COULD OCCUR THROUGH MID-EVENING...GIVEN DEEP INVERTED V-TYPE
PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION.

..GOSS.. 05/18/2009

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KJAX [180100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KJAX 180100
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
857 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 NNW ICHETUCKNEE SPRIN 30.06N 82.79W
05/17/2009 SUWANNEE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 2 SMALL TREES DOWN ALONG STATE
ROAD 247.

0255 PM HAIL 10 NE BAXLEY 31.87N 82.23W
05/17/2009 E1.75 INCH APPLING GA EMERGENCY MNGR

EMA DIRECTOR REPORTED GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
IN NORTHEAST APPLING COUNTY.

0450 PM HAIL 4 S KINGSLAND 30.73N 81.66W
05/17/2009 E0.75 INCH NASSAU FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORT AT THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA VISITORS CENTER
ALONG I-95 RELAYED BY THE CHARLESTON NWS OFFICE.

0522 PM TSTM WND GST ST. SIMONS 31.18N 81.38W
05/17/2009 M41.00 MPH GLYNN GA ASOS

0546 PM TSTM WND GST GAINESVILLE AIRPORT 29.69N 82.28W
05/17/2009 M45.00 MPH ALACHUA FL ASOS

0600 PM HAIL 5 W GAINESVILLE 29.67N 82.42W
05/17/2009 E0.25 INCH ALACHUA FL TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 45 TO 50 MPH WINDS AS WELL.

0615 PM HAIL ENE PENNEY FARMS 29.98N 81.81W
05/17/2009 E0.25 INCH CLAY FL TRAINED SPOTTER

CORNER OF STATE ROAD 16 AND COUNTY ROAD 218

0655 PM HAIL MIDDLEBURG 30.05N 81.90W
05/17/2009 E0.25 INCH CLAY FL NWS EMPLOYEE

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN MIDDLEBURG BY OFF DUTY NWS
EMPLOYEE.

0720 PM HAIL 3 NNE LAKESIDE 30.18N 81.76W
05/17/2009 E0.88 INCH CLAY FL PUBLIC

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

$$

JHESS

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KBGM [172351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 172351
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 PM TORNADO CUYLER 42.73N 75.93W
05/16/2009 CORTLAND NY NWS STORM SURVEY

STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT A BRIEF...EF-0 TORNADO
TOUCHED DOWN WITH ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 70 TO 80
MPH. THE PATH LENGTH WAS JUST UNDER A HALF MILE...WITH A
WIDTH OF 75 YARDS. SOME TREES WERE UPROOTED AND TWO SMALL
SHEDS DESTROYED.

0438 PM TORNADO 1 S GEORGETOWN 42.75N 75.72W
05/16/2009 MADISON NY NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 1 INJ *** STORM SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED AN EF-2 TORNADO
WITH ESTIMATED SPEEDS OF 100 TO 120 MPH. THE TORNADO WAS
ON THE GROUND FOR 13 MINUTES AND TRACKED FOR 6.5 MILES.
THE PATH WIDTH WAS 150 YARDS. A LARGE BARN WAS DESTROYED
AT THIS LOCATION...A ROOF WAS TORN OFF A HOME AND SEVERAL
OUTBUILDINGS AND SHEDS WERE DESTROYED. ELECTRICAL POLES
WERE SNAPPED. A SECOND FARM ON UPHAM ROAD WAS HIT...
DESTROYING A LARGE BARN...SILO AND SHEDS. A FARM NEAR
NILES ROAD ALSO RECEIVED DAMAGE TO A SILO AND HOME.

&&

$$

JAB

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KJAX [172330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172330
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
730 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM HAIL 3 NNE LAKESIDE 30.18N 81.76W
05/17/2009 E0.88 INCH CLAY FL PUBLIC

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

$$

JHESS

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KJAX [172303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172303
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
703 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 NNW ICHETUCKNEE SPRIN 30.06N 82.79W
05/17/2009 SUWANNEE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 2 SMALL TREES DOWN ALONG STATE
ROAD 247.

&&

$$

SHULER

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KJAX [172302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172302
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
702 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM HAIL MIDDLEBURG 30.05N 81.90W
05/17/2009 E0.25 INCH CLAY FL NWS EMPLOYEE

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN MIDDLEBURG BY OFF DUTY NWS
EMPLOYEE.

&&

$$

MZ

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KBRO [171248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 171248
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
748 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN EDINBURG 26.30N 98.16W
05/17/2009 M2.05 INCH HIDALGO TX CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR RAIN TOTAL FROM CO-OP.

&&

$$

HART

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171240
SWODY1
SPC AC 171236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2009

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH UPR LOW NOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL LIFT NE INTO
QUEBEC...TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S. EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN PLNS CONTINUES ESE TO THE NERN
GULF OF MEXICO/SRN APPALACHIANS. AT THE SAME TIME...BROAD RIDGE
WILL HOLD FIRM IN THE WEST...WITH CENTER SHIFTING SLOWLY E/SE TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.

AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT TRAILING S/SW FROM DEEP LOW IN QUEBEC SHOULD
EDGE ONLY SLOWLY SE ACROSS GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS AS A WEAK WAVE
FORMS ALONG IT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR DISTURBANCE.

...SRN SC/GA INTO FL...
SCTD TSTMS WILL FORM WITH SFC HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
OVER SRN SC AND ERN/SRN GA LATER TODAY. OTHER STORMS SHOULD FORM IN
CNTRL AND NERN FL ALONG AXIS OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LARGELY
ASSOCIATED WITH E CST SEA BREEZE FRONT. RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL
TEMPERATURES /AOB MINUS 10C AT 500 MB/ AND MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE. ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF MEAN WIND
FIELD WILL REMAIN MODEST...20-25 KT DEEP WSWLY FLOW AND STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL/PULSE
STORMS. THESE COULD PRODUCE ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVE.

...SWRN STATES...
SATELLITE DATA SHOW AN AXIS OF MODEST PW /VALUES AROUND .5 INCHES/
OVER SRN PARTS OF NM/AZ. THIS MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STNRY TODAY. SFC HEATING AND PERHAPS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING W ALONG SRN FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE MAY FOSTER
DIURNAL STORMS ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS. WEAK E/NELY MID/UPR LVL
FLOW SHOULD FAVOR WWD STORM MOVEMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE
DESERT VLYS...WHERE INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/17/2009

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KLWX [171226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171226
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE CEDAR GROVE 39.25N 78.16W
05/16/2009 FREDERICK VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES DOWN ALONG WELITOWN ROAD.

&&

$$

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170852
SWOD48
SPC AC 170851

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2009

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM THE
MIDDLE INTO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS REGIME WILL GENERALLY BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE STRONGER WESTERLIES LARGELY CONFINED TO
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOWER 48. WHILE PERIODIC SEVERE
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD...AND NO 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

WITH RELATIVELY GOOD GEFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS...SOME SEVERE TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY/DAY 4...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. IN SPITE OF EXPECTATIONS FOR
RELATIVELY STRONG KINEMATICS/AMPLE LAPSE RATES...MEAGER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE APPRECIABLE THREAT. FOR
THURSDAY-SATURDAY DAYS 5-7...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MAIN
PROSPECTS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE VIA A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
REGIME...ALTHOUGH WESTERLIES WILL TEND TO REMAIN MODEST.
OTHERWISE...SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES/NEW ENGLAND AROUND DAY 6/FRIDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND PARENT UPPER TROUGH...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS INHERENTLY LOW ALONG
WITH UNKNOWNS REGARDING MOISTURE.

..GUYER.. 05/17/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170727
SWODY3
SPC AC 170725

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY...WHILE A CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR FLORIDA/S WEST COAST.
FARTHER NORTH...THE PRIMARY BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADING
QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

...NORTHERN ID AND MUCH OF MT...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE ON TUESDAY.
WHILE THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
MOIST...AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS AND
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN UPSWING IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
STEADILY EAST-ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ID INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL MT. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT/STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME WELL-ORGANIZED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS/HAIL.

...FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...
IN VICINITY OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT PLENTIFUL SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. AS SUCH...QUESTIONS EXIST
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-10C TO -12C AT 500
MB/ IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LATITUDE CLOSED UPPER LOW...LIKELY
TO BE JUST OFF THE FL PENINSULA WEST COAST...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR A HAIL/PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.

..GUYER.. 05/17/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170537
SWODY2
SPC AC 170536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2009

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS
THE CONUS. ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...A PROGRESSIVELY CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES/WESTERN ONTARIO. IN
THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...MEAGER MOISTURE/POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT RATHER ISOLATED/LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER 48 ON MONDAY.

...SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...
SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN TANDEM WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA...AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-10C AT 500 MB/ IN
PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
RISK OF SEVERE HAIL/DOWNBURSTS MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...WI/EASTERN MN/WESTERN UPPER MI...
PERTURBED/STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO. AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MN/UPPER MI. WITH AMPLE HEATING AND A MODEST
MOISTURE FEED /ALBEIT MAINLY 40S TO LOWER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES BENEATH 45-55 KT NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW COULD
SUPPORT FAST MOVING MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL.

...NORTHEAST ORE AND ID INTO WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL MT...
A STRONG TSTM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM
NORTHEAST ORE INTO WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL MT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...VIA INITIAL/LATE DAY ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS...HEATING ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND/OR DEVELOPING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE MT HIGH
PLAINS. MODEST MOISTURE/WELL MIXED PROFILES AND RELATIVELY STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A
RISK FOR HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL/ISOLATED TO WARRANT ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 05/17/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170501
SWODY1
SPC AC 170458

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S. AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES DROP SEWD. A COLD
FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD THROUGH THE NWRN GULF EARLY
SUNDAY WILL MOVE SEWD AND CLEAR ALL OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE FL
PENINSULA BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN
STATES.

...SRN GA THROUGH FL...

SCATTERED STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT
WITHIN MOIST PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...PRIMARILY FROM SRN GA THROUGH
FL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...6-6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS. SOME STORMS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

...SWRN STATES...

OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SWD ALONG
ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE MAY PROMOTE A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ. WEAK ELY-NELY MID-UPPER FLOW
WILL PROMOTE STORMS MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DESERT
VALLEYS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS SUGGEST
ISOLATED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 05/17/2009

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KLIX [170456]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLIX 170456
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N NEW ORLEANS 30.01N 90.08W
05/16/2009 ORLEANS LA BROADCAST MEDIA

MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS, CARPORTS, AND PORCHES IN GENTILLY
FROM DOWNBURST WINDS.

0231 PM FUNNEL CLOUD BELLE CHASSE 29.85N 90.00W
05/16/2009 PLAQUEMINES LA OTHER FEDERAL

KNBG OBSERVATION FC B1931Z E1938Z

0430 PM HAIL LAPLACE 30.07N 90.47W
05/16/2009 E0.50 INCH ST. JOHN THE BAPTI LA BROADCAST MEDIA

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR U.S. 51.

0520 PM HAIL 3 W SUN 30.65N 89.96W
05/16/2009 E1.00 INCH ST. TAMMANY LA PUBLIC

0530 PM HAIL TYLERTOWN 31.12N 90.14W
05/16/2009 E1.00 INCH WALTHALL MS EMERGENCY MNGR

0553 PM HAIL 6 NE LIVINGSTON 30.56N 90.67W
05/16/2009 E0.88 INCH LIVINGSTON LA PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 442 BETWEEN MAGNOLIA
AND STARNS.

0630 PM HAIL 10 ENE INDEPENDENCE 30.69N 90.35W
05/16/2009 E1.00 INCH TANGIPAHOA LA PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT FAMILY GROCERY AND DELI IN
HUSSER ON HIGHWAY 445.

0913 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 N METAIRIE 30.04N 90.18W
05/16/2009 GMZ530 LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

OBSERVER SIGHTED LARGE FUNNEL CLOUD OR WATERSPOUT JUST
OFFSHORE IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. DOPPLER RADARS FROM BOTH
NWS SLIDELL AND MSY TERMINAL DOPPLER NEAR NORCO INDICATED
ONLY WEAK ROTATION.

0923 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW TYLERTOWN 31.11N 90.15W
05/16/2009 WALTHALL MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN ON VACANT TRAILER.

0923 PM TSTM WND DMG METAIRIE 30.00N 90.18W
05/16/2009 JEFFERSON LA EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUD IN THE AREA WHERE MINOR
DAMAGE WAS REPORTED. PORTION OF ROOF OFF A BUSINESS NEAR
INTERSECTION OF WEST ESPLANADE AND HESSMER. POWERLINES
EITHER DOWN OR DAMAGED...WHICH CAUSED FLASHES OF LIGHT
THAT WERE VISIBLE ACROSS METAIRIE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
DOPPLER RADARS FROM NWS SLIDELL AND MSY TERMINAL DOPPLER
NEAR NORCO BOTH INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM.

0955 PM HAIL 2 E METAIRIE 30.00N 90.14W
05/16/2009 E1.25 INCH JEFFERSON LA BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

22/TD

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