SWODY2
SPC AC 170536
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2009
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS
THE CONUS. ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...A PROGRESSIVELY CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES/WESTERN ONTARIO. IN
THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...MEAGER MOISTURE/POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT RATHER ISOLATED/LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER 48 ON MONDAY.
...SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...
SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN TANDEM WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA...AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-10C AT 500 MB/ IN
PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
RISK OF SEVERE HAIL/DOWNBURSTS MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
...WI/EASTERN MN/WESTERN UPPER MI...
PERTURBED/STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO. AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MN/UPPER MI. WITH AMPLE HEATING AND A MODEST
MOISTURE FEED /ALBEIT MAINLY 40S TO LOWER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES BENEATH 45-55 KT NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW COULD
SUPPORT FAST MOVING MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
...NORTHEAST ORE AND ID INTO WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL MT...
A STRONG TSTM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM
NORTHEAST ORE INTO WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL MT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...VIA INITIAL/LATE DAY ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS...HEATING ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND/OR DEVELOPING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE MT HIGH
PLAINS. MODEST MOISTURE/WELL MIXED PROFILES AND RELATIVELY STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A
RISK FOR HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL/ISOLATED TO WARRANT ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 05/17/2009
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