KFFC [190310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KFFC 190310
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1108 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 6 E WHITE 34.28N 84.64W
04/17/2012 E0.50 INCH CHEROKEE GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CHEROKEE COUNTY SHERIFF DEPUTY REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL ON
THE CHEROKEE COUNTY...BARTOW COUNTY LINE.

0441 PM HAIL WOODSTOCK 34.10N 84.52W
04/17/2012 E0.50 INCH CHEROKEE GA PUBLIC

MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF DIME SIZE HAIL IN WOODSTOCK.

0447 PM HAIL DECATUR 33.78N 84.30W
04/17/2012 E0.25 INCH DEKALB GA BROADCAST MEDIA

BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL AT
THEIR LOCATION.

0453 PM HAIL 1 E HOLLY SPRINGS 34.17N 84.48W
04/17/2012 E0.50 INCH CHEROKEE GA PUBLIC

SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS OF HALF INCH HAIL NEAR HOLLY
SPRINGS.

0520 PM HAIL 4 E CANTON 34.24N 84.42W
04/17/2012 E1.00 INCH CHEROKEE GA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED STORM SPOTTER RELAYED A REPORT OF ONE INCH HAIL 4
MILES EAST OF CANTON.

0527 PM HAIL 7 ENE CANTON 34.28N 84.38W
04/17/2012 E0.75 INCH CHEROKEE GA TRAINED SPOTTER

CHEROKEE COUNTY EMA RELAYED A REPORT FROM A STORM SPOTTER
ABOUT PENNY SIZE HAIL 7 MILES ENE OF CANTON.

0600 PM HAIL 4 SSW DAWSONVILLE 34.37N 84.16W
04/17/2012 E1.00 INCH DAWSON GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

A COUNTY OFFICIAL REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

0711 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S BALDWIN 34.46N 83.54W
04/17/2012 M60.00 MPH BANKS GA PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC RELAYED A REPORT OF A 60 MPH GUST MEASURED TWO
MILES SOUTH OF BALDWIN

0711 PM HAIL 2 SW ALTO 34.45N 83.60W
04/17/2012 E1.00 INCH BANKS GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LEE ARRENDALE CORRECTIONAL CENTER REPORTED HAIL THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS IN THE AREA. ANOTHER REPORT OF HAIL THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS WAS RECEIVED FROM THE PUBLIC AT 713 PM 2 S OF
BALDWIN IN BANKS COUNTY.

&&

$$

JLF

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KFFC [190308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 190308
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1107 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL 4 SSW DAWSONVILLE 34.37N 84.16W
04/17/2012 E1.00 INCH DAWSON GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

A COUNTY OFFICIAL REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

&&

$$

JLF

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KMFR [190303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 190303
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
803 PM PDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.74W
04/18/2012 M0.70 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24HR TOTAL. 82.3IN FOR THE WATER YEAR. 84.1 INCHES FOR
THE WATER YEAR TO THIS DATE IN 2011.

&&

$$

MOTTENWE

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KGJT [190257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KGJT 190257
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
857 PM MDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 NW MOAB 38.73N 109.74W
04/18/2012 M52 MPH GRAND UT ASOS

0816 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE GRAND JUNCTION 39.12N 108.53W
04/18/2012 M51 MPH MESA CO ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200367 GJT1200366

$$

BK

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KOTX [190232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 190232
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
732 PM PDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 NW GENESEE 46.60N 117.01W
04/18/2012 LATAH ID BROADCAST MEDIA

FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTED ON THE LEWISTON GRADE AROUND 410 PM.
PICTURES RELAYED FROM MEDIA CONFIRMED FUNNEL CLOUD.

&&

$$

SBODNAR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190059
SWODY1
SPC AC 190057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN NEB THROUGH WRN IA...

THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SFC LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD THROUGH NRN IL...SRN IA AND NWRN KS. WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ACROSS SRN SD. ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER MOST OF
THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG AS DEPICTED BY THE OMAHA AND
TOPEKA 00Z RAOBS. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF 800-1200 J/KG MUCAPE
RESIDES OVER CNTRL KS WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
OVERSPREAD MOIST AXIS WITH LOW-MID 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.
PRIMARY ZONE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
VORT MAX MOVING INTO WRN SD AND WRN NEB WHERE HIGH BASED STORMS
EXIST EARLY THIS EVENING. LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS PROGRESSIVE IMPULSE RESULTING IN NWD MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-800 J/KG MUCAPE INTO ERN NEB
AND WRN IA OVERNIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD TONIGHT
WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 04/19/2012

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KILM [182023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 182023
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
423 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM TSTM WND DMG SOCIETY HILL 34.51N 79.85W
04/18/2012 DARLINGTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON HWY 52. TRAFFIC PARTIALLY BLOCKED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200053

$$

43

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KGRB [182023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 182023
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
323 PM CDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 PM HAIL ALLOUEZ 44.46N 87.98W
04/18/2012 M0.25 INCH BROWN WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SAC

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KGRB [182009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 182009
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
308 PM CDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0307 PM HAIL 3 WSW HOWARD 44.54N 88.12W
04/18/2012 M0.50 INCH BROWN WI NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

SAC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181959
SWODY1
SPC AC 181957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEAST...
HAVE CONFINED MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES TO PARTS OF ERN
SC AND SERN NC AHEAD OF A LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ONGOING TSTM
CLUSTER IN ERN SC /SEE MCD 0565 FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM
INFORMATION/. ELSEWHERE...MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE AMIDST WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM
ORGANIZED TSTMS IS MINIMAL.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS VALID. HAVE CONFINED MARGINAL
HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES TO AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION.

...BLACK HILLS TO MID-MO VALLEY...
PREVIOUS FORECAST SCENARIO APPEARS REASONABLE WITH HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION INITIATING OVER PARTS OF ERN WY TOWARDS THE BLACK
HILLS/WRN NEB PANHANDLE WITHIN A MINIMALLY BUOYANT AIR MASS. AS THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD...IT MAY INTENSIFY TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NEB AS
MEAGER BUT INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N/NWWD IN THE
CNTRL PLAINS.

..GRAMS.. 04/18/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012/

...SOUTHEAST...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COASTLINE TODAY AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED TSTMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM NRN FL TO THE
ERN CAROLINAS. KTLH RAOB DEPICTS DEEP MOISTURE BUT WEAK INSTABILITY
AMIDST MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30KT. SOME UPDRAFTS
AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OFFSHORE OF FL PNHDL COULD EXHIBIT WEAK
ROTATION AND A WATERSPOUT OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.

FARTHER EAST...MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM KJAX AND KCHS EXHIBIT
CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME TO SUPPORT THE
FORECAST OF TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACTING TO REMOVE THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR AOB 30KT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF A COUPLE OF STORMS ATTAINING SUFFICIENT
INTENSITY TO POSE A THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
FURTHERMORE...SPC HAIL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HAIL SIZE SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
A COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING MN/WI TODAY
PRODUCED 90M 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. IN
RESPONSE...1006MB SURFACE LOW...NOW NEAR DLH...IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NEWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO SRN CANADA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILS THE LOW SWWD AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS IA. WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND
MESOSCALE/FOCUSED LIFT ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW PROBABILITY HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE PROSPECT FOR MORE
ROBUST/WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIMITED BY A NUMBER OF
FACTORS INCLUDING: 1) MEAGER MOISTURE AND 2) LACK OF STRONGER LARGE
SCALE ASCENT DUE TO THE FRONT BEING SITUATED WITHIN AN AREA OF
NEUTRAL HEIGHT CHANGE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
CANADA AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS NRN PLAINS LATE...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SRN CANADA...ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. LEE TROUGHING AND LOW
LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THIS IMPULSE WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT...HERE TOO...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED.
NONETHELESS...LIFT AND DECREASING STATIC STABILITY ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH-BASED CONVECTION INITIATING NEAR THERMAL/LEE
TROUGH OVER WY BY EVENING. A SMALL CLUSTER STORMS MAY BE MAINTAINED
EAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF
HAIL/WIND EVENTS ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

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KGRB [181910]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 181910
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
210 PM CDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL SCANDINAVIA 44.46N 89.13W
04/18/2012 M0.25 INCH WAUPACA WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SAC

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0565

ACUS11 KWNS 181848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181848
NCZ000-SCZ000-182015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT WED APR 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN SC/ADJACENT PART OF SERN
NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181848Z - 182015Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF SC INTO ADJACENT COUNTIES INTO SERN NC.

18Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NRN-NERN SC /INVOF CHESTERFIELD COUNTY/ WITH A TROUGH /ALSO
DEPICTED AS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY PER VIS IMAGERY/
EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH SRN SC TO SERN-SRN GA. SURFACE HEATING
WITHIN THE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WITH CURRENT MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDING SWD
FROM NEAR THE LOW INTO COLLETON COUNTY SC. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/DPVA
SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK...35-40 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL
WINDS ARE SUPPORTING BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO THE WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..PETERS.. 04/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 33488071 34438065 34988004 34797899 34447865 33947893
33367950 32998010 32918066 32938091 33488071

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181730
SWODY2
SPC AC 181730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL IA TO SWRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NRN TIER WILL
AMPLIFY ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES/SPEED MAXIMA. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
LOWER ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
ALONG A S/SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. AT 20/00Z...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD
BE CENTERED INVOF THE IA/MO BORDER WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD AND INTERSECTING ANOTHER LOW AND DRYLINE INVOF NWRN TX.

...MID-MO VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
FOR A BROAD INFLUX OF RICH WRN GULF MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST...A CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NWD AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG AT PEAK HEATING.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE INVOF THE MO/IA SURFACE CYCLONE AND
THEN DEVELOP SWWD INTO EARLY EVENING AS INHIBITION WEAKENS. STRONG
MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS WILL PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULT IN A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL. WITH STRONG FORCING WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENING/VEERING IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...THE POTENTIAL
FOR NUMEROUS STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS MAY LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND INTENSITY OF HAIL GROWTH. A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET JUST NE OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION IN SWRN OK WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN BACKED
PRIOR TO A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN MLCIN. WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS NWRN/N-CNTRL TX...AN MCS COULD BECOME
SUSTAINED IN OK TO THE OZARK PLATEAU THU NIGHT. BUT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE WITH TIME AND ERN EXTENT OVERNIGHT.

..GRAMS.. 04/18/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181622
SWODY1
SPC AC 181620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEAST...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COASTLINE TODAY AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED TSTMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM NRN FL TO THE
ERN CAROLINAS. KTLH RAOB DEPICTS DEEP MOISTURE BUT WEAK INSTABILITY
AMIDST MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30KT. SOME UPDRAFTS
AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OFFSHORE OF FL PNHDL COULD EXHIBIT WEAK
ROTATION AND A WATERSPOUT OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.

FARTHER EAST...MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM KJAX AND KCHS EXHIBIT
CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME TO SUPPORT THE
FORECAST OF TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACTING TO REMOVE THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR AOB 30KT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF A COUPLE OF STORMS ATTAINING SUFFICIENT
INTENSITY TO POSE A THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
FURTHERMORE...SPC HAIL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HAIL SIZE SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
A COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING MN/WI TODAY
PRODUCED 90M 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. IN
RESPONSE...1006MB SURFACE LOW...NOW NEAR DLH...IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NEWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO SRN CANADA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILS THE LOW SWWD AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS IA. WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND
MESOSCALE/FOCUSED LIFT ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW PROBABILITY HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE PROSPECT FOR MORE
ROBUST/WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIMITED BY A NUMBER OF
FACTORS INCLUDING: 1) MEAGER MOISTURE AND 2) LACK OF STRONGER LARGE
SCALE ASCENT DUE TO THE FRONT BEING SITUATED WITHIN AN AREA OF
NEUTRAL HEIGHT CHANGE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
CANADA AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS NRN PLAINS LATE...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SRN CANADA...ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. LEE TROUGHING AND LOW
LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THIS IMPULSE WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT...HERE TOO...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED.
NONETHELESS...LIFT AND DECREASING STATIC STABILITY ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH-BASED CONVECTION INITIATING NEAR THERMAL/LEE
TROUGH OVER WY BY EVENING. A SMALL CLUSTER STORMS MAY BE MAINTAINED
EAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF
HAIL/WIND EVENTS ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

..CARBIN/COHEN.. 04/18/2012

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KMRX [181420]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 181420
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1020 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0617 PM TSTM WND DMG HAYESVILLE 35.05N 83.82W
04/17/2012 CLAY NC NEWSPAPER

SEVERAL TREES DOWN. A COUPLE OF TREES ON HOUSES.

&&

$$

JWINTON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181225
SWODY1
SPC AC 181223

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. SOME
INCREASE IN AMPLIFICATION WILL...HOWEVER...BEGIN TO OCCUR EARLY THU
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW
CONTINUES ESE INTO THE GRT BASIN. BUT APPRECIABLE DEEPENING OF THIS
FEATURE WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THU AND FRI. IN THE MEAN
TIME...DISTURBANCE NOW OVER MN EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO THE UPR GRT LKS
BY THIS EVE...AND INTO SW QUE THU MORNING...WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW OVER AL FURTHER WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE SE CST. TSTMS SHOULD
BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE AL
IMPULSE. STORMS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE NRN RCKYS INTO THE
NRN/CNTRL PLNS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS.

...SE AL INTO NRN FL...GA...SC...AND SRN NC THIS AFTN/EVE...
A FEW CLUSTERS/BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SRN AL E/NE INTO NRN
FLA...GA...AND SC/SRN NC LATER TODAY AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES
REGION AHEAD OF AL UPR IMPULSE. NEITHER LOW LVL NOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE STEEP...AND LOW LVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK. 35-40 KT SWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW MAY...HOWEVER...PROMOTE MODEST
STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY SEVERE
MULTICELLS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVE.

...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS TODAY INTO EARLY TNGT...
MN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED BEYOND LOW LVL MOIST AXIS OVER THE
CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY. BUT DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF SYSTEM SHOULD
ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND/OR INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ALONG
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY DECELERATES/STALLS
FROM NRN MI SW INTO CNTRL IA.

SUFFICIENT HEATING/CONVERGENCE SHOULD OCCUR TO FOSTER AT LEAST SOME
SFC BASED DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FROM SE WI SWWD INTO NRN IL AND
ERN/SRN IA. SPARSE MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW
50S F/ WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY DESPITE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES. BUT MODERATE...DIFLUENT WNWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW MAY
NEVERTHELESS SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL/WIND
THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT.

...CNTRL/NRN PLNS TO MID/LWR MO VLY LATER TODAY AND TNGT...
A SEPARATE AREA OF SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM BY LATE AFTN OVER WRN SD
AND THE NEB PANHANDLE AS LEAD DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST APPROACHES REGION FOLLOWING PEAK
HEATING. AGAIN...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP BUOYANCY FAIRLY WEAK.
BUT GIVEN 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LVL FLOW...SELY LOW LVL WINDS...AND
STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A N-S
BAND AND BECOME CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE ESE AS A SMALL MCS ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS
OF SD AND NEB TNGT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND VEERS AHEAD OF UPR
IMPULSE.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 04/18/2012

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KJAN [181125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 181125
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
625 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 NNW BRANDON 32.36N 90.04W
04/17/2012 RANKIN MS PUBLIC

FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON WIRTZ ROAD IN FLOWOOD

&&

$$

DL

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KGSP [180842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 180842
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
442 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL WOODLAWN 35.79N 82.04W
04/17/2012 E2.00 INCH MCDOWELL NC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED 2 INCH HAIL ALONG HIGHWAY 221 NORTH AT
WOODLAWN.

&&

$$

HG

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180838
SWOD48
SPC AC 180837

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS WEEKEND. AS
THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS TX IT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WRN GULF BASIN EARLY IN THE DAY4 PERIOD AND A SQUALL
LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INSIST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY4. WITH 50-70+KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE COLOCATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY THAT AN ORGANIZED MCS/SQUALL LINE COULD ADVANCE ACROSS
THE REGION.

..DARROW.. 04/18/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180709
SWODY3
SPC AC 180707

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...AR TO SOUTH TX...

WHILE THE NAM IS GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARD A DEEPER AND MORE SLY
TRACK WITH ITS TROUGH FRIDAY IT REMAINS WEAKER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THE LATTER MODELS DIG AN UPPER LOW INTO SERN TX AS A
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...APPROACHING 90KT...TRANSLATES
ACROSS CNTRL TX TOWARD THE NWRN GULF BASIN. DESPITE THIS
STRENGTHENING/DIGGING SYSTEM SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WILL LAG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WITH SFC-6KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KT EXPECTED
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
ADDITIONALLY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FORMIDABLE CAP MAY
BE PRESENT PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE A NARROW AXIS OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL WARM SECTOR SHEAR WILL
ONLY INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBS FOR HAIL/WIND FOR CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES SEWD ACROSS AR/TX.

..DARROW.. 04/18/2012

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KFSD [180554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 180554
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1254 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1247 AM HAIL VERMILLION 42.78N 96.93W
04/18/2012 M0.88 INCH CLAY SD PUBLIC

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

CJANSEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180537
SWODY1
SPC AC 180535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE REGIME WILL
PREVAIL. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAINING
COMMON ESPECIALLY ACROSS GA/SC/FL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONT. OTHER
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDWEST TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF MN/IA INTO WI/MI. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DECELERATE/STALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
IA AND THE ADJACENT UPPER MS VALLEY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TEND TO QUICKLY SPREAD AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL ADJACENT
WARM SECTOR...BUT SUFFICIENT HEATING/NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL/AT LEAST ISOLATED SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IN AREAS SUCH AS EASTERN/SOUTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN WI AND FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/MO. MOISTURE /GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS
/LESS THAN 500 J PER KG MLCAPE/...BUT A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MO VALLEY TONIGHT...
A SEPARATE AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY
TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION/WARM ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB TONIGHT.

...COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH GA/NORTH FL TODAY...
SUFFICIENT HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ANTICIPATED
ALONG/SOUTH OF A SURFACE FRONT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRONGER/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/GA INTO FL. WITH A MODESTLY ENHANCED BELT OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH...SEVERE WINDS/PERHAPS HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ON A RELATIVELY ISOLATED/MARGINAL BASIS OVERALL.

..GUYER.. 04/18/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180532
SWODY2
SPC AC 180530

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN IA TO SWRN OK...

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF PLAINS TROUGH THURSDAY. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER RUNS AND IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THE DIGGING TROUGH. AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
DIGS ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WHICH WILL ENABLE A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT TO
SURGE SWD TO A POSITION FROM SWRN IA...SWWD INTO NWRN OK BY 20/00Z.
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST 55-60F SFC DEW POINTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. FOR THIS REASON FORECAST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODEST WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE MID
MO/MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE NOSE OF STRONG LLJ. WITH
TIME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REMOVE
THE INHIBITION AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SERN
NEB/SWRN IA THEN SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS KS. THIS ACTIVITY
ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK MAY GROW UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
THE LLJ REFOCUSES ACROSS OK. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SEVERE PROBS MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO EVOLVE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION
THEN A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED AND SEVERE PROBS WILL BE INCREASED
FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/WIND.

...ELSEWHERE...

DEAMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE ERN GULF STATES TO A
POSITION ACROSS GA/NRN FL BY 20/00Z. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT
A MEANINGFUL THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AND WILL MAINTAIN <5%
PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 04/18/2012

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