SWODY1
SPC AC 180535
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE REGIME WILL
PREVAIL. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAINING
COMMON ESPECIALLY ACROSS GA/SC/FL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONT. OTHER
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.
...UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDWEST TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF MN/IA INTO WI/MI. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DECELERATE/STALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
IA AND THE ADJACENT UPPER MS VALLEY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TEND TO QUICKLY SPREAD AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL ADJACENT
WARM SECTOR...BUT SUFFICIENT HEATING/NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL/AT LEAST ISOLATED SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IN AREAS SUCH AS EASTERN/SOUTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN WI AND FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/MO. MOISTURE /GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS
/LESS THAN 500 J PER KG MLCAPE/...BUT A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...CENTRAL PLAINS/MO VALLEY TONIGHT...
A SEPARATE AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY
TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION/WARM ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB TONIGHT.
...COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH GA/NORTH FL TODAY...
SUFFICIENT HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ANTICIPATED
ALONG/SOUTH OF A SURFACE FRONT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRONGER/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/GA INTO FL. WITH A MODESTLY ENHANCED BELT OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH...SEVERE WINDS/PERHAPS HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ON A RELATIVELY ISOLATED/MARGINAL BASIS OVERALL.
..GUYER.. 04/18/2012
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